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NewBase 21 March 2017 - Issue No. 1012 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Work starts on third phase of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid
solar park … Andrew Scott and LeAnne Graves
Work has begun on the third phase of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park and
a tender for the fourth phase is expected in June, according to the Dubai Electricity and Water
Authority (Dewa).
The third phase will have enough capacity to power about 200,000 homes and is expected to be
completed in three years.
"Phase 3 is under construction and will be delivered in 2020," Saeed Al Tayer, the managing
director and chief executive of Dewa, said at the inauguration of the 200-megawatt second phase
in Dubai on Monday.
Mr Al Tayer said the solar park’s independent power producer model reduces the risks for Dewa,
which is committed to meeting Dubai’s clean energy targets.
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"The cost of phase 2 was US$326 million, but our investment was only $26m, with a 51 per cent
holding," he said. "I think it is beneficial to our partner with an internal rate of return of between 8
and 10 per cent."
The second phase, inaugurated in the presence of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, Vice President
and Ruler of Dubai, spans 4.5 square kilometres with 2.3 million solar panels, provided by First
Solar. It is the cheapest operating plant in the world and can support the energy demands of
50,000 residences.
"We can actually exceed the 200MW by a little," said Abdul Al Muhaidib, the chief executive of
Shuaa Energy, its owner and developer, in which Dewa has a majority stake. "We can generate
the full 200MW within two hours of sunlight."
The remaining shareholders in Shuaa Energy, Acwa Power of Saudi Arabia and partner TSK of
Spain, won the contract to provide electricity at a cost of 5.84 US cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) in
2015.
"We can expect more projects to be launched at a faster pace using the public private partnership
framework, using the full range of fuels including increasing levels of renewable energy," said
Paddy Padmanathan, the chief executive of Acwa.
In the next few months, Dewa could potentially set a world record low cost for electricity generated
from solar with the fourth phase of the park tapping a different solar technology. The 200MW
concentrated solar power (CSP) plant will utilise tower technology and will also have storage
capabilities unlike the previous phases. But the ability to supply the grid when the sun is not
shining also drives up the costs. The current lowest cost for CSP technology is in Morocco at 12
cents per kWh. However, Mr Al Tayer told The National last year that he believes Dubai can
achieve rates of 8 cents or lower.
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Oman: Flared gas-to-electricity conversion on trial in Oman
Oman Observer - Conrad Prabhu in Business
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) says it is piloting the use of micro-turbine technology to
generate electricity from flared gas — a move that could help the nation’s leading oil and gas
producer potentially convert waste gas into valuable energy.
A successful pilot could pave the way for the broader rollout of this technology across its
concession area for the conversion of flared gas into electricity, the majority-government-owned
company noted in a recent tweet.
The trial is underway at PDO’s Anzauz
Production Station in the company’s Oil
South Directorate. A fest facility
established at Anzauz currently
generates around 180 – 195 kW of
electricity by converting 1,000 cubic
metres per day of fuel gas that would
otherwise be flared.
According to details of the trial
published in a recent edition of PDO’s
in-house magazine, only around five
per cent of gas currently flared at
Anzauz is utilised by the test micro-
turbine unit to generate power. Based
on the success of this pilot, micro-
turbines could potentially recover an
estimated 500,000 cubic metres per day of flared volumes for conversion into electricity.
The eventual deployment of micro-turbine technology across PDO’s Block 6 concession could see
as much as 25 per cent of flared gas – estimated at around two million cubic metres per day in
2015 – recovered for power generation. The resulting electricity output will go a long way in
meeting the company’s substantial requirement of energy to power its oilfield operations.
At the Anzauz test facility, associated gas from the production station is channelled, compressed
and fed to a micro-turbine supplied by California-based Capstone Turbine Corporation, a leading
manufacturer of clean technology energy systems. Capstone’s C200 micro-turbine system was
supplied with fuel gas pretreatment and compression facilities to support the generation of
electricity from flared gas at site.
Significantly, the initiative is in sync with PDO’s broader strategy to reduce the flaring of
hydrocarbons and thereby limit the company’s carbon footprint. Flaring is a source of greenhouse
gases linked to global warming and climate change.
Flaring currently takes place at numerous locations distributed across the company’s vast
concession. Capturing and recovering all of these volumes into a centralised supply source for
power generation is described as economically unfeasible given the wide geographical distribution
of these sources.
In the circumstances, micro-turbine-based power generation is billed as a practical way forward to
harnessing flared gas volumes for power generation to meet at least part if not all of the
company’s electricity requirement at site.
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Oman: Dutch firm wins Liwa Plastics’ flare systems contract
Oman Observer
Dutch firm Escher has secured a contract to supply a total of five flare systems for the multibillion
dollar Liwa Plastics Industries Complex (LPIC) currently under construction at Suhar. Orpic, the
Sultanate’s refining and petrochemicals flagship, is investing $6.4 billion in the development of the
giant petrochemicals scheme within the industrial port at Suhar, with a smaller upstream
component at Fahud as well.
An integral part of any refinery,
petrochemicals or oilfield
processing plant, flare systems
help in the safe burning of
excess hydrocarbon and purge
gases in an environmentally
sound manner, as an
alternative to releasing these
vapours directly into the
atmosphere.
Given the massive size of the
LPIC project with its multiple
components, Escher Process
Modules, based in
Alblasserdam in the
Netherlands, will fabricate and
deliver five flare systems in the
third quarter of this year.
Three of the flares will be
supported on one common
derrick structure towering above the site at a height of about 170 metres. The other two flare
systems will be fitted atop a second common derrick structure at a height of around 100 metres.
Either derrick is equipped with one or more retractable gas riser systems which allows for one
flare tip to be removed for maintenance or inspection while the other flares remain in operation,
the company said.
Commenting on the award of the Orpic contract, Robbert Schimer, Account Manager at Escher,
said: “We are proud that we have won this contract and that we are part of this sophisticated
project. Our track record of more than 50 years with derrick supported flare systems contributed to
a competitive design. With this design we were able to secure the order award for this project.”
Multiple consortiums of internationally reputed engineering contracts are currently executing the
mammoth petrochemicals complex at a dedicated site within Sohar Port and Freezone. Centring
on a steam cracker plant, Liwa Plastics will process light ends produced in Orpic’s Suhar Refinery
and its Aromatics Plant as well as optimize natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from currently
available natural gas supplies.
The project is conceptualized around the rerouting elements of existing production in combination
with additional purchased feedstocks to deliver high value polymer products for the local and
international marketplaces. Upon commissioning and commercial start-up by 2020, Liwa Plastics
is set to boost plastics production by one million tonnes. By then, production of polyethylene and
polypropylene is set to soar to 1.4 million tonnes per annum.
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Oman: Masirah Oil spuds exploration well in Block 50 Oman
Source: Masirah Oil
Masirah Oil and its partners have announced that the drilling of exploration well Karamah-
1 in Block 50 Oman has started on 17 March 2017. The Karamah Prospect is targeted at a depth
of about 3 km, and is located on a structural closure approx. 13 km away from the earlier GAS-1
discovery well at a water depth of 23 metres.
The well objective is to explore multiple
target horizons of the Early Tertiary and
Late Cretaceous formations.
The well location was selected by
integrating mainly the geological
understanding and the proprietary
multi-attribute Rex Virtual Drilling
technology. The well is being drilled
using the independent leg cantilever
jack-up drilling rig Aban VII which was
also used in earlier Masirah drilling
campaigns.
The shareholders of Masirah are Rex
Oman at 85.15 per cent, Schroder & Co
Banque at 5.00 per cent, Lime
Petroleum with effective shareholding
at 1.45 per cent and Petroci Holdings at
8.39 per cent.
Masirah Oil Ltd ("Masirah Oil") is
offering a select group of companies
the opportunity to acquire an interest in Block 50, Oman, by farming-in to an exciting and highly
attractive exploration programme of drilling and seismic acquisition. Masirah Oil currently holds a
100% interest in Block 50.
Key points of Block 50:
• A 30% interest on offer in a highly prospective 16,900 km2 block, with a proven
hydrocarbon system and diverse exploration plays;
• Water depth 10 m to 1,500 m but for most of the block is less than 40 m;
• Three-year exploration period from 23 March 2017, with a two-well drilling commitment;
• Hydrocarbon system proven by 2014 well GA South-1, which flowed 42.6º API gravity oil at
rates up to 3,541 bopd;
• Badroulbadour(Cretaceous) & Cliffhanger(Tertiary) prospects with potential mean
resources over 150 MMbbls, to be tested by a single USD 12 million well;
• Frontier Sub-Mélange play with large structures, each with potential oil resources in excess
of 1,000 MMbbls;
• In addition there are further Tertiary, Mesozoic and Proterozoic prospects and leads, plus
potential deep water prospects yet to be evaluated.
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Egypt: SDX Energy commences drilling operations at South
Disouq in Egypt's Nile Delta ….. Source: SDX Energy
SDX Energy, the North Africa focused oil and gas company, has announced the commencement
of drilling operations on the SD-1X well at its South Disouq concession in the Nile Delta area of
Egypt.
The well is targeting gas in the
upper Abu Madi section and oil in
the lower AEB & Abu Roash
sections. Drilling operations are
anticipated to take between 30
and 45 days, depending upon
what is encountered in the
targeted intervals.
The Company has also confirmed
that upon commencement of
operations it has been granted a
six-month extension to the first
exploration period, until 19
September 2017. This will allow
sufficient time for the SD-1X well
results to be fully evaluated prior
to making any decision to enter into the second exploration period at South Disouq.
Paul Welch, President and CEO of SDX, commented:
'We are extremely pleased to announce the start of this drilling campaign, as well as the extension
to the exploration period. This is one of several activities, across the expanded SDX portfolio, that
has the potential to further increase our reserve base and ultimately add to our high margin
production base. We look forward to providing updates over the course of the campaign.'
About :SDX Energy’s portfolio
In Egypt, SDX Energy has a working interest in two producing assets (50% North West Gemsa & 50% Meseda)
located onshore in the Eastern Dessert, adjacent to the Gulf of Suez. In Morocco, SDX has a 75% working interest in
the Sebou concession situated in the Rharb Basin. These producing assets are characterised by exceptionally low
operating costs making them particularly resilient in a low oil price environment. With combined daily average gross
production of 11,200 boe/d (4,705 boe/d net to SDX Energy) and 2P reserves of 12.03 mmboe, these concessions
provide a solid and resilient production base for SDX Energy.
SDX Energy’s portfolio also includes high impact exploration opportunities in two concessions. In Egypt (South
Disouq) and in Morocco (Lalla Mimouna). These exciting prospects will be the subject of technical studies and
exploration drilling in 2017 as SDX Energy seeks to deliver an active work programme and achieve a balanced
portfolio of stable production growth and transformational exploration upside.
• Gross Production*: 11,200 boe/d
• Net Production*: 4,705 boe/d
• Proven Reserves: 12.03 mmboe
• Prospective Resources (P50): 35 mmboe
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Cyprus approves Eni, Total, Exxon offshore block deals
Source: Reuters
Cyprus's cabinet on Friday approved contracts with France's Total, Italy's Eni, Exxon
Mobil and Qatar Petroleum to explore for oil and gas in offshore areas south of the island, officials
said.
Exploring the Mediterranean's Levant Basin has become more attractive since Eni discovered
Egypt's offshore Zohr field in 2015, the biggest gas field in the Mediterranean and estimated to
contain 850 billion cubic metres of gas. The Cypriot concessions cover exploration rights for three
offshore blocks off the south and southwestern coast and contracts would be signed on April 5
and 6, Energy Minister Georgios Lakkotrypis said.
Eni and Total are in a consortium for one of the blocks and ExxonMobil and Qatar have joined up
for another. Eni will be on its own in a third block. The blocks were offered in the third licensing
round held by Cyprus.
Total, which won rights for another block in a previous licensing round, planned to conduct drilling
this year in Block 11, which borders the Zohr discovery, Lakkotrypis said.
Eni said last week said it had finalised a deal with Total to buy a 50 percent interest in Block 11,
with Total remaining the operator.
The Italian firm planned to drill twice this year, Lakkotrypis said. 'Precisely what block has not yet
been defined, that will be acertained with greater clarity by seismic data,' he added.
Noble Energy of the U.S. made Cyprus's first natural gas discovery offshore in 2011.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Middle East gasoline boom stirs sales fight from Europe to Asia
Bloomberg/
Expanding fuel shipments from the Arabian Gulf will intensify competition from Europe to Asia,
squeezing profits across the global refining industry and contributing to a looming glut of oil
products.
As Saudi Arabia, Iran and other crude suppliers build new oil-processing plants and upgrade old
ones, the Gulf region is poised to become a net exporter of refined products as soon as this year.
This heralds a tougher contest for sales between state companies in the Gulf, the trading houses
that currently supply them and Asian refiners that are also boosting exports.
European refiners are set to lose out as newer rivals from the Middle East, India and China vie
with them for sales, according to consultants Wood Mackenzie Ltd and FGE. Saudi Arabia and
Abu Dhabi have built export-oriented refineries with a combined capacity of almost 1.4mn bpd
over the last four years, and the Gulf region is already selling diesel in Europe.
“The region is getting near to balanced and is bringing on more capacity,” Gati al-Jebouri, the
head of Lukoil’s Middle East business, said in an interview in Dubai. “As more fuel is exported,
with Europe not growing, it’s logical that producers will start looking to new markets in East Africa
or Asia.”
While the Middle East’s ability to pump oil has historically run far ahead of its ability to refine it, the
region has expanded processing capacity by about 20% since 2013 and state oil companies are
enlarging or upgrading plants to produce cleaner-burning fuels to help diversify local economies.
This expansion, funded by windfall profits when crude averaged close to $100 a barrel, may
exacerbate an oversupply of refined products.
Saudi Arabia plans to double refining capacity to as much as 10mn bpd within 10 years, Saudi
Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said. Saudi Arabian Oil Co, the state producer known as Saudi
Aramco, expects to start operating a 400,000 bpd refinery next year at Jazan on the Red Sea,
adding to two other plants of the same size that have come online since 2013.
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Neighbouring Abu Dhabi, which holds most of the oil in the UAE, more than doubled capacity at its
Ruwais refinery to 817,000 bpd in 2015. Iran expects to start producing gasoline this year at the
Gulf Star refinery and to export the fuel as early as 2018. Kuwait plans a 615,000-bpd refinery by
2020, and Oman is expanding its largest facility this year.
The region’s production of refined fuels is catching up with local demand, said Richard Mallinson,
an analyst with consultant Energy Aspects Ltd in London. “Patterns are definitely shifting, as
traditional import markets are seeing their volumes changing or are disappearing entirely,” he
said.
Gasoline imports by Gulf states will fall to about 150,000 bpd this year from about 200,000 bpd in
2016, and the region will produce more gasoline than it consumes by 2019, said Iman Nasseri of
FGE. “With a global oversupply of products, you’ll see some plant closures and some running
below capacity,” he said by phone from London.
Competition from the Gulf expansion is a threat, according to Francis Duseux, chairman of the French oil-
industry association Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres. “We must remain vigilant,” Duseux said at
a March 7 news conference in Paris. “We must continue to invest and trim costs.”
As European refineries come under more pressure, export-focused processors in the Middle East and Asia
will look to Indonesia, Vietnam and fast-growing nations in East Africa to soak up excess supply, according
to FGE. Refiners worldwide will add 8.1mn bpd of capacity by 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Refiners in China and the Middle East will add more than half of the forecast 7mn bpd of new capacity by
2022, the International Energy Agency said in its 2017 Oil Market report released this month.
Even with the Gulf exporting more products, traders can still play a role in meeting supply gaps in the
region, said Paul Himsworth, head of Vitol Group BV’s Dubai office. “A growth in refining capacity in the
region will not only produce more gasoline but a surplus of other products that will need to be efficiently
placed in the wider international market,” he said on March 7.
The Gulf’s role as a supplier of gasoline and diesel could be cut short if local demand for products keeps
rising. Gasoline use in the region is seen increasing by 3% to 5% annually through 2020, according to FGE
and Tushar Tarun Bansal, head of consultant Ivy Global Energy in Singapore.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase 21 March 2017 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices rise on talk that OPEC could extend supply cut
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the
market could be extended, while strong demand would also work to slowly erode a global fuel
supply overhang.
Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $51.86 per
barrel at 0401 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $48.35 a barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with other producers
including Russia, has pledged to cut its output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between
January and June in an effort to prop up prices and rein in a global supply glut that has dogged
markets for almost three years.
Yet so far the cutback has not had the desired effect as compliance by involved exporters is
patchy and as other producers, including the United States, have stepped up to fill the gap,
resulting in crude prices falling more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year.
To halt the decline, OPEC members increasingly favor extending the pact beyond June to balance
the market, sources within the group said, although they added that this would require non-OPEC
members like Russia to also step up their efforts.
Traders also said that healthy oil demand would help rebalance markets and support prices.
Oil price special
coverage
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"Global demand for 2017 is expected to remain healthy and surpass long-term average growth in
demand of 1.2 million barrels per day by between 0.2 and 0.4 million barrels per day. As such, the
combination of robust demand and weaker global supply leading to rebalanced markets will not be
de-railed by U.S. shale oil," said Jeremy Baker, Senior Commodity Strategist, at Vontobel Asset
Management.
Baker said this would "support the case for a shift from contango to backwardation in the crude
markets during the second-half 2017." Contango describes a market structure in which prices for
future delivery of a product are higher than current ones, while backwardation is price curve in
which spot prices are more expensive than future deliveries.
The Brent futures forward curve currently shows a slight contango shape, in which prices for May
delivery are 62 cents below those for delivery in January 2018.
Traders said that U.S. crude storage data, due to be published later on Tuesday by the American
Petroleum Institute (API), would likely be the next significant price driver.
The result, crude oil stocks in the U.S. hit an all-time record high last week. (For the purist, if one
adds back in the 32 million barrels of lease crude oil stocks, one can see that today's inventory
levels are higher than those reported in October 1929).
Higher prices also helped reduce the incentive to store oil on tankers. While floating storage in the
North Sea has all but disappeared, the December production rush pushed oil sales into Asia
where tankers are currently backed up awaiting discharge orders in places like Singapore.
OPEC and non OPEC producers probably did not count on the resiliency of shale oil producers
and other around the world to cut costs and improve efficiency. In its March 7, 2017 Short Term
Energy Outlook, the EIA is now forecasting all time record crude oil production in the U.S. of 9.7
million barrels per day in 2018, up 800,000 barrels per day from 2016 levels.
While most of the talk has been about the Permian Basin, other producers have also cut costs.
Last August, Statoil announced that its Johan Sverdrup North Sea oil discovery is profitable at $25
per barrel. Late last year, Canadian oil producers announced expansion projects: Cenovus at
Christina Lake and CNRL at Kirby North.
Add to the mix the return of Libyan oil supplies and the oil market is simply not drawing inventories
as fast as OPEC and non OPEC producers would like.
Twelve years ago, when crude oil first hit $60 per barrel, the market saw its deepest contango
ever. Translation: If crude oil supplies are tight now, imagine what it will be in the future and we
need much higher prices to get it out of the ground.
Fast forward to today, where the crude curve is rather flat. Translation: We figured out the
technology to get our costs down and we can get more oil out of the ground at today's price level.
As oil remains under pressure in the near term awaiting signs of declining inventories, the long
liquidation is likely to drag prices down to $45 per barrel. In response OPEC and no-OPEC
producers will be forced to issue a series of pronouncements indicating their seriousness at
reducing the oversupply, most likely culminating in an agreement in May to extend production cuts
until the end of 2017.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Bullish Bets on Crude Cut by Most Ever as Price Falls Below $50
by Jessica Summers
Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the
week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a
barrel.
"It’s sort of a negative feedback loop, where money managers were selling because the price was
falling, and the price was falling in part because money managers were selling,” said Tim Evans,
an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, in a telephone interview.
Bets on rising WTI crude during the report week were reduced by the most on record in data going
back to 2006, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Friday. The cuts
came as prices tumbled below $50 a barrel for the first time this year, and anxious executives
discussed rising U.S. rig counts at an industry meeting in Houston.
On Friday, oil settled at $48.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 29 cents for the
week. Saudi Arabia and Russia sent mixed messages as the week ended on the future of the
production cuts agreed to by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other
nations for the first half of the year.
Saudi Arabia is ready to extend the cuts into the second half if supplies stay above the five-year
average, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Bloomberg Television. Russian Energy Minister
Alexander Novak countered it was too early to discuss an extension. An OPEC panel is scheduled
to meet this month to review compliance with the current deal.
‘Room to Grow’
“If you make it through this next OPEC compliance meeting and we don’t have further jawboning
by the Saudis and Russia, or more compliance, I think that you have room to grow on the short
side, which is worrisome,” Brent Belote, founder of Cayler Capital LLC, which manages $5 million
in oil-related assets, said by telephone.
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During the week ended March 14, hedge funds decreased their net-long position, or the difference
between bets on a price increase and wagers on a decline, by 23 percent to 288,774, the largest
decline on record and the lowest level since December. WTI tumbled 10 percent during the
period. Longs fell 8.9 percent to the lowest level since early January, and shorts doubled from the
prior week to the highest since November.
Producers and merchants increased their short positions, or bets on lower prices, to 739,736
futures and options during the report week, the highest level in a month.
The U.S. benchmark slipped below $50 a barrel on March 9 as oil executives gathered in Houston
for the annual CERAWeek by IHS Markit conference.
Industry players at the meeting aired their concerns that growing U.S. output may thwart OPEC’s
efforts to trim stockpiles and raise prices, an idea underpinned by U.S. government data released
during the week showing inventories at record high levels. Many shale producers view $50 as a
benchmark price for profitability.
Bets on OPEC
“The rise to record inventory levels in the U.S. is a challenge to the idea that the market has already fully
rebalanced and that the downside risk is negligible," Evans said.
There’s still hope OPEC will continue its efforts to reduce the global glut. Deutsche Bank AG Thursday
predicted OPEC will extend the cuts not only through the end of this year, but also through the end of
2018. Citigroup Inc. said OPEC’s output cuts aimed at easing the glut are “real” and already are cleaning
up the market.
“We’re close to the $49 mark, not too far from $50,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets
strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London, said by telephone. “It seems like there are a lot of people who still
have faith in OPEC delivering the kind of cuts that would allow prices to increase.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14
NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 21 March. 2017
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Oil May Be the Key to the Reflation Rally
by Eric Lam and Narae Kim
Throw out the tea leaves and the crystal ball. When it comes to divining the future of the reflation
trade, investors should be keeping a close eye on oil.
Crude’s bounce following the OPEC production deal in November underpinned many assumptions
the market has about economic growth and inflation, says Daniel Morris, a senior investment
strategist with BNP Paribas Investment Partners. But after surging to an almost 18-month high in
January, Brent oil has wiped out the gains made after the output reduction pact as the group’s aim
to stabilize the global market is undermined by higher U.S. production.
“If you take the oil story away, then you start wondering how sustainable the reflation story is,”
Morris said by phone from London. “Lingering doubt” that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries’ cuts will be extended, along with rising U.S. output, is bringing oil’s outlook into
question, he said.
As a key cost for both consumers and industries in economies around the world, oil plays a pivotal
role when it comes to global inflation expectations. That sentiment then feeds into the outlook for
bond yields and equities, Morris said. Crude rallied along with shares and other commodities after
Donald Trump’s election ignited bets on fiscal spending-fueled growth. Since reaching a peak on
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
Jan. 6, however, Brent has retreated 10 percent amid renewed anxiety over the prospects for
global demand and supply.
“On one hand you had Trump and higher rates and stimulus and all that, and at the same time
you’ve had the support from oil prices and so this is all part of the same narrative,” Morris said.
“It’s very important what happens with oil.”
Brent added 0.4 percent to $51.83 a barrel as of 2:32 p.m. Hong Kong time, below its $55.05
average price in 2017. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.3 percent to $48.36 per barrel.
Dagger Move
Crude prices and stocks have generally moved in the same direction over the past year, except
for the divergence seen in the past few weeks, according to James Audiss, a senior wealth
manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees about A$10 billion ($7.7 billion).
“We’ve seen dagger moves in the past,” Audiss said, referring to the shape made on a chart by a
swift drop in an asset that is then quickly corrected. “It’ll be interesting if we have a dagger move --
if that plays out in the next couple of weeks. That would be supportive of equities.”
BNP Paribas Investment’s Morris said he doesn’t have a “particularly bullish” outlook on
commodities, which have fallen this year amid the drop in oil, a Bloomberg index of raw materials
prices shows. The multi-asset solutions arm of BNP Paribas Investment is underweight equities
after the 11 percent surge in U.S. stocks since Trump’s victory. There are also some medium-term
opportunities in emerging market shares and local-currency denominated debt, he said.
“There’s a lot of hope that’s been built into the market that may or may not be realized,” Morris
said. “There’s certainly some vulnerability there to disappointment.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase March 2017 K. Al Awadi

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New base 1012 special 21 march 2017 energy news

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 21 March 2017 - Issue No. 1012 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Work starts on third phase of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid solar park … Andrew Scott and LeAnne Graves Work has begun on the third phase of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park and a tender for the fourth phase is expected in June, according to the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa). The third phase will have enough capacity to power about 200,000 homes and is expected to be completed in three years. "Phase 3 is under construction and will be delivered in 2020," Saeed Al Tayer, the managing director and chief executive of Dewa, said at the inauguration of the 200-megawatt second phase in Dubai on Monday. Mr Al Tayer said the solar park’s independent power producer model reduces the risks for Dewa, which is committed to meeting Dubai’s clean energy targets.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 "The cost of phase 2 was US$326 million, but our investment was only $26m, with a 51 per cent holding," he said. "I think it is beneficial to our partner with an internal rate of return of between 8 and 10 per cent." The second phase, inaugurated in the presence of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, spans 4.5 square kilometres with 2.3 million solar panels, provided by First Solar. It is the cheapest operating plant in the world and can support the energy demands of 50,000 residences. "We can actually exceed the 200MW by a little," said Abdul Al Muhaidib, the chief executive of Shuaa Energy, its owner and developer, in which Dewa has a majority stake. "We can generate the full 200MW within two hours of sunlight." The remaining shareholders in Shuaa Energy, Acwa Power of Saudi Arabia and partner TSK of Spain, won the contract to provide electricity at a cost of 5.84 US cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2015. "We can expect more projects to be launched at a faster pace using the public private partnership framework, using the full range of fuels including increasing levels of renewable energy," said Paddy Padmanathan, the chief executive of Acwa. In the next few months, Dewa could potentially set a world record low cost for electricity generated from solar with the fourth phase of the park tapping a different solar technology. The 200MW concentrated solar power (CSP) plant will utilise tower technology and will also have storage capabilities unlike the previous phases. But the ability to supply the grid when the sun is not shining also drives up the costs. The current lowest cost for CSP technology is in Morocco at 12 cents per kWh. However, Mr Al Tayer told The National last year that he believes Dubai can achieve rates of 8 cents or lower.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Oman: Flared gas-to-electricity conversion on trial in Oman Oman Observer - Conrad Prabhu in Business Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) says it is piloting the use of micro-turbine technology to generate electricity from flared gas — a move that could help the nation’s leading oil and gas producer potentially convert waste gas into valuable energy. A successful pilot could pave the way for the broader rollout of this technology across its concession area for the conversion of flared gas into electricity, the majority-government-owned company noted in a recent tweet. The trial is underway at PDO’s Anzauz Production Station in the company’s Oil South Directorate. A fest facility established at Anzauz currently generates around 180 – 195 kW of electricity by converting 1,000 cubic metres per day of fuel gas that would otherwise be flared. According to details of the trial published in a recent edition of PDO’s in-house magazine, only around five per cent of gas currently flared at Anzauz is utilised by the test micro- turbine unit to generate power. Based on the success of this pilot, micro- turbines could potentially recover an estimated 500,000 cubic metres per day of flared volumes for conversion into electricity. The eventual deployment of micro-turbine technology across PDO’s Block 6 concession could see as much as 25 per cent of flared gas – estimated at around two million cubic metres per day in 2015 – recovered for power generation. The resulting electricity output will go a long way in meeting the company’s substantial requirement of energy to power its oilfield operations. At the Anzauz test facility, associated gas from the production station is channelled, compressed and fed to a micro-turbine supplied by California-based Capstone Turbine Corporation, a leading manufacturer of clean technology energy systems. Capstone’s C200 micro-turbine system was supplied with fuel gas pretreatment and compression facilities to support the generation of electricity from flared gas at site. Significantly, the initiative is in sync with PDO’s broader strategy to reduce the flaring of hydrocarbons and thereby limit the company’s carbon footprint. Flaring is a source of greenhouse gases linked to global warming and climate change. Flaring currently takes place at numerous locations distributed across the company’s vast concession. Capturing and recovering all of these volumes into a centralised supply source for power generation is described as economically unfeasible given the wide geographical distribution of these sources. In the circumstances, micro-turbine-based power generation is billed as a practical way forward to harnessing flared gas volumes for power generation to meet at least part if not all of the company’s electricity requirement at site.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Oman: Dutch firm wins Liwa Plastics’ flare systems contract Oman Observer Dutch firm Escher has secured a contract to supply a total of five flare systems for the multibillion dollar Liwa Plastics Industries Complex (LPIC) currently under construction at Suhar. Orpic, the Sultanate’s refining and petrochemicals flagship, is investing $6.4 billion in the development of the giant petrochemicals scheme within the industrial port at Suhar, with a smaller upstream component at Fahud as well. An integral part of any refinery, petrochemicals or oilfield processing plant, flare systems help in the safe burning of excess hydrocarbon and purge gases in an environmentally sound manner, as an alternative to releasing these vapours directly into the atmosphere. Given the massive size of the LPIC project with its multiple components, Escher Process Modules, based in Alblasserdam in the Netherlands, will fabricate and deliver five flare systems in the third quarter of this year. Three of the flares will be supported on one common derrick structure towering above the site at a height of about 170 metres. The other two flare systems will be fitted atop a second common derrick structure at a height of around 100 metres. Either derrick is equipped with one or more retractable gas riser systems which allows for one flare tip to be removed for maintenance or inspection while the other flares remain in operation, the company said. Commenting on the award of the Orpic contract, Robbert Schimer, Account Manager at Escher, said: “We are proud that we have won this contract and that we are part of this sophisticated project. Our track record of more than 50 years with derrick supported flare systems contributed to a competitive design. With this design we were able to secure the order award for this project.” Multiple consortiums of internationally reputed engineering contracts are currently executing the mammoth petrochemicals complex at a dedicated site within Sohar Port and Freezone. Centring on a steam cracker plant, Liwa Plastics will process light ends produced in Orpic’s Suhar Refinery and its Aromatics Plant as well as optimize natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from currently available natural gas supplies. The project is conceptualized around the rerouting elements of existing production in combination with additional purchased feedstocks to deliver high value polymer products for the local and international marketplaces. Upon commissioning and commercial start-up by 2020, Liwa Plastics is set to boost plastics production by one million tonnes. By then, production of polyethylene and polypropylene is set to soar to 1.4 million tonnes per annum.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Oman: Masirah Oil spuds exploration well in Block 50 Oman Source: Masirah Oil Masirah Oil and its partners have announced that the drilling of exploration well Karamah- 1 in Block 50 Oman has started on 17 March 2017. The Karamah Prospect is targeted at a depth of about 3 km, and is located on a structural closure approx. 13 km away from the earlier GAS-1 discovery well at a water depth of 23 metres. The well objective is to explore multiple target horizons of the Early Tertiary and Late Cretaceous formations. The well location was selected by integrating mainly the geological understanding and the proprietary multi-attribute Rex Virtual Drilling technology. The well is being drilled using the independent leg cantilever jack-up drilling rig Aban VII which was also used in earlier Masirah drilling campaigns. The shareholders of Masirah are Rex Oman at 85.15 per cent, Schroder & Co Banque at 5.00 per cent, Lime Petroleum with effective shareholding at 1.45 per cent and Petroci Holdings at 8.39 per cent. Masirah Oil Ltd ("Masirah Oil") is offering a select group of companies the opportunity to acquire an interest in Block 50, Oman, by farming-in to an exciting and highly attractive exploration programme of drilling and seismic acquisition. Masirah Oil currently holds a 100% interest in Block 50. Key points of Block 50: • A 30% interest on offer in a highly prospective 16,900 km2 block, with a proven hydrocarbon system and diverse exploration plays; • Water depth 10 m to 1,500 m but for most of the block is less than 40 m; • Three-year exploration period from 23 March 2017, with a two-well drilling commitment; • Hydrocarbon system proven by 2014 well GA South-1, which flowed 42.6º API gravity oil at rates up to 3,541 bopd; • Badroulbadour(Cretaceous) & Cliffhanger(Tertiary) prospects with potential mean resources over 150 MMbbls, to be tested by a single USD 12 million well; • Frontier Sub-Mélange play with large structures, each with potential oil resources in excess of 1,000 MMbbls; • In addition there are further Tertiary, Mesozoic and Proterozoic prospects and leads, plus potential deep water prospects yet to be evaluated.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Egypt: SDX Energy commences drilling operations at South Disouq in Egypt's Nile Delta ….. Source: SDX Energy SDX Energy, the North Africa focused oil and gas company, has announced the commencement of drilling operations on the SD-1X well at its South Disouq concession in the Nile Delta area of Egypt. The well is targeting gas in the upper Abu Madi section and oil in the lower AEB & Abu Roash sections. Drilling operations are anticipated to take between 30 and 45 days, depending upon what is encountered in the targeted intervals. The Company has also confirmed that upon commencement of operations it has been granted a six-month extension to the first exploration period, until 19 September 2017. This will allow sufficient time for the SD-1X well results to be fully evaluated prior to making any decision to enter into the second exploration period at South Disouq. Paul Welch, President and CEO of SDX, commented: 'We are extremely pleased to announce the start of this drilling campaign, as well as the extension to the exploration period. This is one of several activities, across the expanded SDX portfolio, that has the potential to further increase our reserve base and ultimately add to our high margin production base. We look forward to providing updates over the course of the campaign.' About :SDX Energy’s portfolio In Egypt, SDX Energy has a working interest in two producing assets (50% North West Gemsa & 50% Meseda) located onshore in the Eastern Dessert, adjacent to the Gulf of Suez. In Morocco, SDX has a 75% working interest in the Sebou concession situated in the Rharb Basin. These producing assets are characterised by exceptionally low operating costs making them particularly resilient in a low oil price environment. With combined daily average gross production of 11,200 boe/d (4,705 boe/d net to SDX Energy) and 2P reserves of 12.03 mmboe, these concessions provide a solid and resilient production base for SDX Energy. SDX Energy’s portfolio also includes high impact exploration opportunities in two concessions. In Egypt (South Disouq) and in Morocco (Lalla Mimouna). These exciting prospects will be the subject of technical studies and exploration drilling in 2017 as SDX Energy seeks to deliver an active work programme and achieve a balanced portfolio of stable production growth and transformational exploration upside. • Gross Production*: 11,200 boe/d • Net Production*: 4,705 boe/d • Proven Reserves: 12.03 mmboe • Prospective Resources (P50): 35 mmboe
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Cyprus approves Eni, Total, Exxon offshore block deals Source: Reuters Cyprus's cabinet on Friday approved contracts with France's Total, Italy's Eni, Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum to explore for oil and gas in offshore areas south of the island, officials said. Exploring the Mediterranean's Levant Basin has become more attractive since Eni discovered Egypt's offshore Zohr field in 2015, the biggest gas field in the Mediterranean and estimated to contain 850 billion cubic metres of gas. The Cypriot concessions cover exploration rights for three offshore blocks off the south and southwestern coast and contracts would be signed on April 5 and 6, Energy Minister Georgios Lakkotrypis said. Eni and Total are in a consortium for one of the blocks and ExxonMobil and Qatar have joined up for another. Eni will be on its own in a third block. The blocks were offered in the third licensing round held by Cyprus. Total, which won rights for another block in a previous licensing round, planned to conduct drilling this year in Block 11, which borders the Zohr discovery, Lakkotrypis said. Eni said last week said it had finalised a deal with Total to buy a 50 percent interest in Block 11, with Total remaining the operator. The Italian firm planned to drill twice this year, Lakkotrypis said. 'Precisely what block has not yet been defined, that will be acertained with greater clarity by seismic data,' he added. Noble Energy of the U.S. made Cyprus's first natural gas discovery offshore in 2011.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Middle East gasoline boom stirs sales fight from Europe to Asia Bloomberg/ Expanding fuel shipments from the Arabian Gulf will intensify competition from Europe to Asia, squeezing profits across the global refining industry and contributing to a looming glut of oil products. As Saudi Arabia, Iran and other crude suppliers build new oil-processing plants and upgrade old ones, the Gulf region is poised to become a net exporter of refined products as soon as this year. This heralds a tougher contest for sales between state companies in the Gulf, the trading houses that currently supply them and Asian refiners that are also boosting exports. European refiners are set to lose out as newer rivals from the Middle East, India and China vie with them for sales, according to consultants Wood Mackenzie Ltd and FGE. Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi have built export-oriented refineries with a combined capacity of almost 1.4mn bpd over the last four years, and the Gulf region is already selling diesel in Europe. “The region is getting near to balanced and is bringing on more capacity,” Gati al-Jebouri, the head of Lukoil’s Middle East business, said in an interview in Dubai. “As more fuel is exported, with Europe not growing, it’s logical that producers will start looking to new markets in East Africa or Asia.” While the Middle East’s ability to pump oil has historically run far ahead of its ability to refine it, the region has expanded processing capacity by about 20% since 2013 and state oil companies are enlarging or upgrading plants to produce cleaner-burning fuels to help diversify local economies. This expansion, funded by windfall profits when crude averaged close to $100 a barrel, may exacerbate an oversupply of refined products. Saudi Arabia plans to double refining capacity to as much as 10mn bpd within 10 years, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said. Saudi Arabian Oil Co, the state producer known as Saudi Aramco, expects to start operating a 400,000 bpd refinery next year at Jazan on the Red Sea, adding to two other plants of the same size that have come online since 2013.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Neighbouring Abu Dhabi, which holds most of the oil in the UAE, more than doubled capacity at its Ruwais refinery to 817,000 bpd in 2015. Iran expects to start producing gasoline this year at the Gulf Star refinery and to export the fuel as early as 2018. Kuwait plans a 615,000-bpd refinery by 2020, and Oman is expanding its largest facility this year. The region’s production of refined fuels is catching up with local demand, said Richard Mallinson, an analyst with consultant Energy Aspects Ltd in London. “Patterns are definitely shifting, as traditional import markets are seeing their volumes changing or are disappearing entirely,” he said. Gasoline imports by Gulf states will fall to about 150,000 bpd this year from about 200,000 bpd in 2016, and the region will produce more gasoline than it consumes by 2019, said Iman Nasseri of FGE. “With a global oversupply of products, you’ll see some plant closures and some running below capacity,” he said by phone from London. Competition from the Gulf expansion is a threat, according to Francis Duseux, chairman of the French oil- industry association Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres. “We must remain vigilant,” Duseux said at a March 7 news conference in Paris. “We must continue to invest and trim costs.” As European refineries come under more pressure, export-focused processors in the Middle East and Asia will look to Indonesia, Vietnam and fast-growing nations in East Africa to soak up excess supply, according to FGE. Refiners worldwide will add 8.1mn bpd of capacity by 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Refiners in China and the Middle East will add more than half of the forecast 7mn bpd of new capacity by 2022, the International Energy Agency said in its 2017 Oil Market report released this month. Even with the Gulf exporting more products, traders can still play a role in meeting supply gaps in the region, said Paul Himsworth, head of Vitol Group BV’s Dubai office. “A growth in refining capacity in the region will not only produce more gasoline but a surplus of other products that will need to be efficiently placed in the wider international market,” he said on March 7. The Gulf’s role as a supplier of gasoline and diesel could be cut short if local demand for products keeps rising. Gasoline use in the region is seen increasing by 3% to 5% annually through 2020, according to FGE and Tushar Tarun Bansal, head of consultant Ivy Global Energy in Singapore.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase 21 March 2017 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil prices rise on talk that OPEC could extend supply cut Reuters + NewBase Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could be extended, while strong demand would also work to slowly erode a global fuel supply overhang. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $51.86 per barrel at 0401 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $48.35 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with other producers including Russia, has pledged to cut its output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January and June in an effort to prop up prices and rein in a global supply glut that has dogged markets for almost three years. Yet so far the cutback has not had the desired effect as compliance by involved exporters is patchy and as other producers, including the United States, have stepped up to fill the gap, resulting in crude prices falling more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year. To halt the decline, OPEC members increasingly favor extending the pact beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added that this would require non-OPEC members like Russia to also step up their efforts. Traders also said that healthy oil demand would help rebalance markets and support prices. Oil price special coverage
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 "Global demand for 2017 is expected to remain healthy and surpass long-term average growth in demand of 1.2 million barrels per day by between 0.2 and 0.4 million barrels per day. As such, the combination of robust demand and weaker global supply leading to rebalanced markets will not be de-railed by U.S. shale oil," said Jeremy Baker, Senior Commodity Strategist, at Vontobel Asset Management. Baker said this would "support the case for a shift from contango to backwardation in the crude markets during the second-half 2017." Contango describes a market structure in which prices for future delivery of a product are higher than current ones, while backwardation is price curve in which spot prices are more expensive than future deliveries. The Brent futures forward curve currently shows a slight contango shape, in which prices for May delivery are 62 cents below those for delivery in January 2018. Traders said that U.S. crude storage data, due to be published later on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), would likely be the next significant price driver. The result, crude oil stocks in the U.S. hit an all-time record high last week. (For the purist, if one adds back in the 32 million barrels of lease crude oil stocks, one can see that today's inventory levels are higher than those reported in October 1929). Higher prices also helped reduce the incentive to store oil on tankers. While floating storage in the North Sea has all but disappeared, the December production rush pushed oil sales into Asia where tankers are currently backed up awaiting discharge orders in places like Singapore. OPEC and non OPEC producers probably did not count on the resiliency of shale oil producers and other around the world to cut costs and improve efficiency. In its March 7, 2017 Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA is now forecasting all time record crude oil production in the U.S. of 9.7 million barrels per day in 2018, up 800,000 barrels per day from 2016 levels. While most of the talk has been about the Permian Basin, other producers have also cut costs. Last August, Statoil announced that its Johan Sverdrup North Sea oil discovery is profitable at $25 per barrel. Late last year, Canadian oil producers announced expansion projects: Cenovus at Christina Lake and CNRL at Kirby North. Add to the mix the return of Libyan oil supplies and the oil market is simply not drawing inventories as fast as OPEC and non OPEC producers would like. Twelve years ago, when crude oil first hit $60 per barrel, the market saw its deepest contango ever. Translation: If crude oil supplies are tight now, imagine what it will be in the future and we need much higher prices to get it out of the ground. Fast forward to today, where the crude curve is rather flat. Translation: We figured out the technology to get our costs down and we can get more oil out of the ground at today's price level. As oil remains under pressure in the near term awaiting signs of declining inventories, the long liquidation is likely to drag prices down to $45 per barrel. In response OPEC and no-OPEC producers will be forced to issue a series of pronouncements indicating their seriousness at reducing the oversupply, most likely culminating in an agreement in May to extend production cuts until the end of 2017.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Bullish Bets on Crude Cut by Most Ever as Price Falls Below $50 by Jessica Summers Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a barrel. "It’s sort of a negative feedback loop, where money managers were selling because the price was falling, and the price was falling in part because money managers were selling,” said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, in a telephone interview. Bets on rising WTI crude during the report week were reduced by the most on record in data going back to 2006, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Friday. The cuts came as prices tumbled below $50 a barrel for the first time this year, and anxious executives discussed rising U.S. rig counts at an industry meeting in Houston. On Friday, oil settled at $48.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 29 cents for the week. Saudi Arabia and Russia sent mixed messages as the week ended on the future of the production cuts agreed to by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other nations for the first half of the year. Saudi Arabia is ready to extend the cuts into the second half if supplies stay above the five-year average, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Bloomberg Television. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak countered it was too early to discuss an extension. An OPEC panel is scheduled to meet this month to review compliance with the current deal. ‘Room to Grow’ “If you make it through this next OPEC compliance meeting and we don’t have further jawboning by the Saudis and Russia, or more compliance, I think that you have room to grow on the short side, which is worrisome,” Brent Belote, founder of Cayler Capital LLC, which manages $5 million in oil-related assets, said by telephone.
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 During the week ended March 14, hedge funds decreased their net-long position, or the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a decline, by 23 percent to 288,774, the largest decline on record and the lowest level since December. WTI tumbled 10 percent during the period. Longs fell 8.9 percent to the lowest level since early January, and shorts doubled from the prior week to the highest since November. Producers and merchants increased their short positions, or bets on lower prices, to 739,736 futures and options during the report week, the highest level in a month. The U.S. benchmark slipped below $50 a barrel on March 9 as oil executives gathered in Houston for the annual CERAWeek by IHS Markit conference. Industry players at the meeting aired their concerns that growing U.S. output may thwart OPEC’s efforts to trim stockpiles and raise prices, an idea underpinned by U.S. government data released during the week showing inventories at record high levels. Many shale producers view $50 as a benchmark price for profitability. Bets on OPEC “The rise to record inventory levels in the U.S. is a challenge to the idea that the market has already fully rebalanced and that the downside risk is negligible," Evans said. There’s still hope OPEC will continue its efforts to reduce the global glut. Deutsche Bank AG Thursday predicted OPEC will extend the cuts not only through the end of this year, but also through the end of 2018. Citigroup Inc. said OPEC’s output cuts aimed at easing the glut are “real” and already are cleaning up the market. “We’re close to the $49 mark, not too far from $50,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London, said by telephone. “It seems like there are a lot of people who still have faith in OPEC delivering the kind of cuts that would allow prices to increase.”
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 21 March. 2017 Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Oil May Be the Key to the Reflation Rally by Eric Lam and Narae Kim Throw out the tea leaves and the crystal ball. When it comes to divining the future of the reflation trade, investors should be keeping a close eye on oil. Crude’s bounce following the OPEC production deal in November underpinned many assumptions the market has about economic growth and inflation, says Daniel Morris, a senior investment strategist with BNP Paribas Investment Partners. But after surging to an almost 18-month high in January, Brent oil has wiped out the gains made after the output reduction pact as the group’s aim to stabilize the global market is undermined by higher U.S. production. “If you take the oil story away, then you start wondering how sustainable the reflation story is,” Morris said by phone from London. “Lingering doubt” that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ cuts will be extended, along with rising U.S. output, is bringing oil’s outlook into question, he said. As a key cost for both consumers and industries in economies around the world, oil plays a pivotal role when it comes to global inflation expectations. That sentiment then feeds into the outlook for bond yields and equities, Morris said. Crude rallied along with shares and other commodities after Donald Trump’s election ignited bets on fiscal spending-fueled growth. Since reaching a peak on
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Jan. 6, however, Brent has retreated 10 percent amid renewed anxiety over the prospects for global demand and supply. “On one hand you had Trump and higher rates and stimulus and all that, and at the same time you’ve had the support from oil prices and so this is all part of the same narrative,” Morris said. “It’s very important what happens with oil.” Brent added 0.4 percent to $51.83 a barrel as of 2:32 p.m. Hong Kong time, below its $55.05 average price in 2017. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.3 percent to $48.36 per barrel. Dagger Move Crude prices and stocks have generally moved in the same direction over the past year, except for the divergence seen in the past few weeks, according to James Audiss, a senior wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees about A$10 billion ($7.7 billion). “We’ve seen dagger moves in the past,” Audiss said, referring to the shape made on a chart by a swift drop in an asset that is then quickly corrected. “It’ll be interesting if we have a dagger move -- if that plays out in the next couple of weeks. That would be supportive of equities.” BNP Paribas Investment’s Morris said he doesn’t have a “particularly bullish” outlook on commodities, which have fallen this year amid the drop in oil, a Bloomberg index of raw materials prices shows. The multi-asset solutions arm of BNP Paribas Investment is underweight equities after the 11 percent surge in U.S. stocks since Trump’s victory. There are also some medium-term opportunities in emerging market shares and local-currency denominated debt, he said. “There’s a lot of hope that’s been built into the market that may or may not be realized,” Morris said. “There’s certainly some vulnerability there to disappointment.”
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase March 2017 K. Al Awadi