Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
         in a Web 3.0 World

            February 7, 2011

    Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com
           bit.ly/nercomp_disruption




                                               B. S. Wise
“An act of delaying
or interrupting the continuity”
“A ‘disruptive innovation’ is an
innovation that transforms an existing
market or sector — or creates a new
one — by introducing simplicity,
convenience, accessibility, reliability,
and affordability”
SURVEY
Most disruptive of 20th century?
                                       40
                                            Air travel     8%

                                   30       Electricity    39%

                                            The Internet   38%
                                  20

                                            Nuclear weapons 4%
                              10
                                            The Pill       3%

                              0
                 Untitled 1
SURVEY
Who is most responsible?
                           50


                                 Agile incumbents 13%
                          37.5
                                 Early adopters     34%
                         25
                                 Investors          6%

                     12.5        Scrappy upstarts   47%

                     0
SURVEY
Which have been most disruptive?
    Proprietary systems    !   Open software and standards
         Text interfaces   !   Graphical Web browsers
               Landlines   !   Cell phones and network access
         Wired modems      !   Broadband and wireless networks
 Real-time video viewing   !   Digital video recorders
     Centralized servers   !   Peer-to-peer file sharing
  Expensive mainframes     !   Cheap portable storage
   Content management      !   Free blogging services
          Video studios    !   YouTube and camcorders
           Local storage   !   Cloud computing, accessed anywhere
The way it was ...




                     David DeHeter
The way it was ...




                     Luis Argerich
The way it has been ...




                          NASA Goddard Photo and Video
The way it will be ...




                         GE Healthcare
Vizzzual.com
docsearls
Andrew de Poda
Martin Luff
Martin Luff
• Inventory local conditions
• Survey underground pressures
• Evolve agile practices




                      Assoc. Bay Area Governments
Inventory local
  conditions




                  David de Hetre
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Business context
  Mission Statement
  Ford Motor Company:
              Values Statement
  We are a global family with a proud
              Microsoft:
  heritage passionately committed to
  providing personal mobility for honesty,
                           Competitors/constituents
              We value integrity,
  people around the world.Amnesty International:
              openness, personal excellence,
              constructive self-criticism,
                                           SWOT Statement
                          • UN Human Rights Commission
              continual self-improvement, and
              mutual respect.               Strengths   Weaknesses
                          • Médcins Sans Frontières
                                            Expertise
                                         Location
                                                        Marketing
                                                           Distribution
                                         Innovative svc.   Quality
                        • Human Rights Watch
                                         Opportunities     Threats
                                         International     Price war
                                         Mergers           Regulations
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Governance framework




                 Marc Smith, Colin   Project Perfect, Level Five Solutions
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Definitions for success




                       30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Current staff and budgeting structure




                       Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Collier
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Domain architecture




                             Jay Collier
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Tactical priorities
Survey underground
     pressures




                Stephen Jones
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Environmental scan
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Virtual prediction markets
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Delphi forecasting method




  ADOPTION WITHIN
        ONE YEAR    Mobile computing & open content
  ADOPTION WITHIN
     THREE YEARS    Electronic books & simple augmented reality
  ADOPTION WITHIN
      FIVE YEARS    Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Scenario development

           Communications technology scenarios 2015

   Digital       The Wide     The Long Great      World of   Imbrication
Balkanization   Open World      Recession          Points      Nation

                         Course management
                               Libraries
                                E-books
                          Collaboration tools
                       Scholarly communication
                       Administrative computing
                          Computer hardware
                       Professional development
                                                             NITLE
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Systems approach




                            Jay Collier, Wikipedia
Prepare for unexpected
     challenges




                  San Jose Library
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
1. Monitor
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
2. Listen




                         Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
3. Prioritize




                         Eliatt, Jay Collier
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
4. Prototype



                         Text
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
5. Formalize




                     Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
6. Operationalize




                  Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
7. Iterate


                                     1996




                                     2001




                                     2006
                         Wikipedia
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
8. Evaluate

                                                                      s




Benefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI
                                        Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
9. Repeat




 Awareness   Knowledge   Selection   Satisfaction   Loyalty    Advocacy




                                                          Robin Corps
Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
in a Web 3.0 World

bit.ly/nercomp_disruption

Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com




                                           B. S. Wise

NERCOMP: Web Governance - Planning for Disruption