Project originally done in 2004 for a National Planners Group, represented at the World Future Society General Assembly, and again in 2012 for a confidential federal contractor company.

1. By: Frank X. Sowa
Chairman/CEO
THE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.
Developing Communities for
the 21st Century
Presented to the Professional Forum of The World Future Society, Washington DC -- July 2006
Originally-presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference,
February 27, 2004
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 1

2. Development of the U.S.
1600’s -- 1932
• Pre-Independence -- Rugged
Individualism to support survival
• 1776-1876 -- Westering -- Speculation
-- uncontrolled laissez faire -- farm
and plantation-estate focused
• 1877-1932 -- Mechanical Age --
Railroad towns -- Mill and Company
focused
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3. Development in the U.S.
1933 -- 1999
• 1933-1958 -- Industrial Age -- Transportation
towns -- Suburbia -- City Center/Town Square --
multinational corporation focused
• 1959-1979 -- Urban Age -- Airport towns --
Urban project sprawl -- strip and retail malls --
brick and mortar on greenspace -- service
economy focused
• 1980-2000 -- Information Age -- Silicon towns --
High technology/computers/internet -- education
, quality-of-life focused
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4. Development in the U.S.
In the first part of the 21st Century
• 2000-2007 -- Multinational Age -- International
towns -- broadband communication/collaboration
linkages -- electronic multinational infrastructure
economy focused
• 2008-2023 -- Knowledge Age -- knowledge-core
focused towns (education, science and research-
oriented) -- complexity matrix linkages --
biological and cellular-electronic collaboration
economy
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5. Worn-out methods
• Abdicating power to a “Planning Commission” or
an “authority” (local, state, or federal) with old
codes and laws to enforce bureaucratically
• Public-Private development and alliances -- big
league sports alliances
• Brick and mortar development -- reclaiming
brownfields, developing greenfields
• High-Tech Service Centers
• Enhancing quality of life -- education
• Job creation quick-fix schemes
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6. Making the Transition
• OLD WAY -- Control Development with laws
and planning -- maintain the code
• MODERN WAY -- Collaborate on
Development -- Public-Private Alliances
• 21st CENTURY WAY -- Internationalize
Alliances -- Tax with Incentives
• KNOWLEDGE AGE WAY -- Collaborate free
of time-space restraints -- use knowledge
and focus on keeping knowledge workers for
competitive advantage
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7. The Transition
• Doomed to Failure if …
– 1.Focus is on laws, codes, old planning
– 2. Focus is on survival or benchmarking
– 3. Focus is on urban development projects
– 4. Focus is on brick and mortar
– 5. Focus is on brownfields and/or green space
– 6. Focus is on today’s technology
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8. Successful Transitions
• Will succeed if …
– 1. Control and develop the “chess board” -- not
control the “players” or try to go on a “buffalo hunt”
and choose the winning “economic pieces.”
– 2. “Chess board” consists of proper infrastructure,
providing captivating and meaningful taxation,
flexible laws, excellent “knowledge-core” in place
or being put in place, and keeping knowledge
pieces.
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9. Making the Transition
• Refocus from 90% to 18%:
– Rugged individualism (lack of development plan)
– Uncontrolled laissez faire
– City center/town square
– Urban projects -- development parks
– Brick and mortar on brownfields and/or
greenspace
–
2/27/04 High-Tech Service Centers All rights reserved.
© Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, 9

10. Making the Transition
• Place your focus to 70-90% on:
– Developing broadband
communication/collaboration capability
– Internationalize - cosmopolitanize
– Drive networking linkages
– Develop knowledge-cores
• Focus on education, science, healthcare,
research, complexity management services
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11. Focus of Today’s Talk:
Developing for the 21st
Century
Enhancing Communities to take
advantage of the Multinational
and Knowledge Economies
Changing to 21st Century Alliances -- Incentives
Creating a knowledge core and using knowledge for
competitive advantage
© Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All
2/27/04 rights reserved. 11

12. Areas of a Knowledge Economy
Energy and Power
Agriculture Construction
Biotechnology
Head Mouse
Medical Transportation
Space and Rocketry
Manufacturing and Robotics Information and Communications
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13. Which paradigm are you at today?
• Agricultural -- Hands-based Technology (to 1958)
• Industrial -- Machine-based Technology (to 1979)
• Electronic -- Electrical-based Technology (to 1984)
• Broadcast -- Transistors, Integrated Circuits,
Satellites, Desktop Computers (to 1991)
• Informational -- Data-Based Networks (to 1995)
• Narrowcast -- World Wide Web, Downcasting, text,
images, Internet-based Technologies (to 1998)
• Collaborative -- Integrated-Communications via
Internet and Net tools with full multimedia (through 2011)
• Bio-Melding -- the Next Paradigm (through 2015)
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14. The 90’s and Beyond
The “lenses” of Niclolas Negroponte -- MIT Labs 1975 -- said a “combined lens” called New Media would
be a reality by 2000 -- (Broadcast, Telecom. Computers -- Unified Communications
ENHANCED
Optimized Data COMMUNICATION-BASED MODEL
Transfer High Bandwidth
Distributed Data Narrowcasting
Storage in Network Digital Signal
Highest-Value Broadcast Asynchronous
Information Commodity Priced
Lowest-Cost Telecom Cost-Free Network
Distribution Global Access
Local Impact
Integrated Networks Computer
Parallel and
Distributed Computing Unified
New Media of the Information Age
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15. The Future of Unified IT
--THE XAVIER GROUP in 1986
Bandwith
Memory
Languages
Nanoswitches
Real
Digital
hpc
New
OpenDoc
Satellite
Mobile
Java
Embedded
Network
EDI Time
Online Commerce
Interactive
Multimedia
Encryption
WEBSites Television
Internet Processing
ATM Compilers
Simulations
Imaging Security
Virtual Switches on Chips
Virtual
Online
Parallel
multichips
Operating
Links
Languages
Reality
Worlds
Networks
Systems
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16. The Effects of the
Multinational Age (2001-2008)
• The Internet in a multinational society
• The internet as a collaboration tool
• Presentation skills and CRM -- building
relationships
• Coping with change and complexity
• Coping with global competitors
• Lifestyle changes to master a world economy
• Tracking, Terrorists, Linkage, Privacy
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17. 2005 and Beyond The
The Lenses of THE XAVIER GROUP 2001
Knowledge
Economy
Man and Unified
Unified
Machine Neuroscience, Wholistic Approaches
Genome and
Bio-Meld Biotechnology
Virtual
Systems Unified
Unified Information
Materials Science, Technology and
(Nanotechnology) and
Cellular Robotics Knowledge
Ontologies
MODEL DRIVEN BY THE LENSES MERGING TOGETHER
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18. By 2020 The Lens
Man and Becomes
Unified
Machine Neuroscience, Overlapped
Bio-Meld is Genome and
Biotechnology
Mainstream
Unified
The Information
Unified
Materials Science
Knowledge Technology and
(Nanotechnology) and Economy Knowledge
Cellular Robotics
Ontologies
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19. The Next Paradigm
The melding of the
Information Superhighway
Networks with Groupware,
Virtual Reality and Artificial
Life.
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20. The Effects of the Knowledge
Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase
One
– 1998-2005 CRM and ERP (technology began in 1968)
– 1995-2010 Wireless, GPS, RFIDs (technology began in 1975)
– 1973-2020 Virtual Reality, CAD-CAM, 3D Virtual Worlds
and Objects, Cyberspace (technology began in 1968)
– 1992-2007 ISO 9000, Standards and Product/Service
Tracking
– 1958-2050 Biometrics, Robotic enhancers,
Smartbots, automation
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21. The Effects of the Knowledge
Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase
Two
– Integration of circuitry -- now to molecular scale
– System miniaturization -- systems on a chip
– Silicon to plastics to bio-cells
– Collaboration/Communications integrity maintained
– Human Genome project, advances in biotechnology,
advances in neuroscience and brain research
– Advances in robotic systems, miniaturization and
automation of robots, space systems
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22. The Effects of the Knowledge
Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Three
– GRID computing, parallel processing, new knowledge
ontologies, object programming, new supercomputers
– New battery and energy technologies -- self-contained
– Mind/Machine solutions for handicaps, terrorism,
defense
– Brain mechanisms understood
– Microsizing to human cell level
– Putting it all together
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23. The Effects of the Knowledge
Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Final Phase
– Mind a part of the computer network
– Human a part of cyberspace
– Ethical, Religious, Military, Market value
– The change and complexity issues
– The New World (order or disorder) based on
control, independence, interdependence,
freedom, tolerance, acceptance of
diversity
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24. Area’s Knowledge Strengths
• Educational and Research Capabilities
• Connectivity and Linkages
• People and Capabilities
• Healthcare and Biotechnology
• Information Technology and Telephony
• Science and Mathematics Capabilities
• Capital Formation and Foundations
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25. Area’s Knowledge Weaknesses
• Brick and Mortar and Old Economy Focus
with Public Project Development
• Parochialism and Conservative Statism
• Underdeveloped, Underachieving
Workforce
• Bad Self-Image, Poor Direction
• Fighting Mythical Dinosaurs
• Brain-Drain , Aging Population
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26. By 2008
• More consolidation of farming,
manufacturing, construction, high-technology,
banking and financials, healthcare
• 85% traditional manufacturing moved
offshore (72% offshore now)
• 68% high-technology jobs, customer service
jobs, financial services, professional services,
hardware/software offshore (38% offshore
now)
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27. What this means to jobs
• Major job losses in traditional manufacturing,
financial services, customer services, high-
technology, major construction
• Job losses heavy in management, financial
management, engineering, technician areas,
brokerages, programming, skilled labor
• 1955-2002 these were by far the best paying
and broadest opportunities in the upper middle
class
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28. Losing these jobs means
more fallout in …
• Any major occupation that caters to upper middle
class consumers -- retail, wholesale, government,
education, healthcare and so forth
• The fallout of this sector will require four things:
– 1. Capability to train in new skills
– 2. Public Support for those sliding, less tax capability,
less able to support healthcare, less capable to own
real estate, less capable of paying off credit
– 3. More public concerns, welfare, mental health, etc.
– 4. Supply from offshore sources to pick up
domestic slack
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29. 500M-800B
1.1M-500M
500K-1.1M 1980 Wealth Demographics in PA
250K-500K
190K-250K
<500K = 6% Wealthiest
170K-190K Wealthy = 23% exceed $650
150K-170K Middle Class = 48% billion in assets
130K-150K Welfare Class = 23%
110K-130K WEALTHY
90K-110K
75K-90K
64K-75K
45K-64K
36K-45K
28K-36K MIDDLE CLASS
23K-28K
18K-23K
10K-18K
6K-10K WELFARE CLASS
>6K
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30. 500M-800B
1.1M-500M
500K-1.1M 2000 Wealth Demographics in PA
250K-500K
190K-250K
<500K = 4% Wealthiest
170K-190K Wealthy = 26% exceed $800
150K-170K Middle Class = 55% billion in assets
130K-150K Welfare Class = 15%
110K-130K WEALTHY
90K-110K
75K-90K
64K-75K
45K-64K
36K-45K
28K-36K MIDDLE CLASS
23K-28K
18K-23K
10K-18K
6K-10K WELFARE CLASS
>6K
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31. 300M-1T
700K-300M
250K-700K 2010 Wealth Demographics in PA
200K-250K
190K-250K
<700K = 2% Wealthiest will
170K-190K Wealthy = 15% exceed $1 trillion
150K-170K Middle Class = 64% in assets
130K-150K Welfare Class = 18%
110K-130K WEALTHY
90K-110K
75K-90K
64K-75K
45K-64K MIDDLE CLASS
36K-45K
28K-36K
23K-28K
18K-23K
10K-18K
6K-10K WELFARE CLASS
>6K
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32. From the Past to the Future
“What we see today is young
people who, lacking an
understanding of the past and a
vision of the future, live in an
impoverished present.”
-- Allan Bloom, Closing of the American Mind, 1987.
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33. FUTURE CURRICULUM
• Biomelding requires merging of Liberal Arts,
Science and Technology Literacy
• Teaching within a Futures’ Context
• Electronic Networking and Collaboration
• Requires radically new knowledge skills
• Requires a revamping of Curriculum and
Rubrics
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34. Education of the Future
• The coming of the unlimited global learner
instead of a “product” of the educational
institution
• Transfer of education from a focus on bell-
curve achievement by the Masses to self-
realization of the Individual
• Home will become the new center of advanced
learning
• Communication electronically anywhere,
anytime, anyplace will be at the knowledge
core of this shift
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35. Learning and Work
• Scholar’s Learning Mode
• Continuous learning
• Competency-based versus seat time
• Expert systems, many online, will evaluate resumes,
credentials, and determine who will be selected for
jobs of the future
• Personal vs Institutional Responsibility
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36. Work and Learning
• Work and learning will increasingly be
integrated and continuous.
• Knowledge and skills will rapidly change
in the knowledge economy.
• Innovative and effective training and
retraining strategies will be essential.
• Successful enterprises will have a
culture of learning, will focus on
knowledge management and solutions,
and knowledge workers.
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37. Workforce
• The workforce will continue to provide
both rich opportunities and severe
dislocations.
– Mismatch between knowledge skills
needed and skills available.
– Continuous learning on the job.
– Increasing importance of knowledge
workers makes this the essence of
location
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38. New Concepts of Working
• New ways to work will become increasingly
widespread.
– Telecommuting and video conferencing will
significantly replace face-to-face time and
setback airline ambitions.
– Work anywhere, any time, anyplace strategies
will become commonplace.
– Role of Workers will change the desire for
business to chase traditional skills and
markets.
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39. Lifestyles & Demographics
• Aging of the Population
– Those over 65 will comprise 21.5% of the
population by 2030.
– Retirement age will rise to 70 by 2025.
– Many people will continue to work after
“retirement.”
– Potential for generational controversy and
conflict will increase.
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40. Change of the Leadership
Structure
• Bottom-up systems and networks of webs
become more dynamic, effective, and powerful
as top-down systems and hierarchies become
less effective and powerful.
– Bureaucracies are becoming dysfunctional,
PLACES ARE NOT AS IMPORTANT.
– Self-organizing teams are becoming the most
effective way of getting things done.
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41. Entrepreneurs and Strategies
• Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial strategies
and activities will be increasingly important to
the economic health of a community or region.
– Growth of small businesses and cottage
industries
– Increasing numbers of contractual workers
– Entrepreneurial spirit and strategies will be
necessary to all effective individuals and
employees
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42. Developing Communities for
the 21st Century
It is not Rocket Science!
…or is it?
The Future of jobs and communities are
at stake!
By: Frank X. Sowa
Chairman/CEO
THE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.
P.O. Box 251
Glenshaw, PA 15116 USA
(412) 487-9422
(412) 487-3067
Fsowa@xaviergroup.com
http://www.xaviergroup.com
Presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,
The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 42
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