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Winning	
  the	
  Campaign	
  
	
  
Nega%ve	
  Campaigning	
  
Željko	
  Zidarić	
  
Civic	
  Innova1on	
  Incubator	
  
July	
  7,	
  2014	
  
I	
  inkubator
Anyone can become angry
- that is easy, but to be angry
with the right person at the
right time, and for the right
purpose and in the right way
- that is not within everyone's
power and that is not easy.	

	

Aristotle - Nicomachean Ethics	

Book II, 1109.a27	

Activists
VideoIndex	

Negative Campaigning	

	

•  Introduction	

•  Objectives	

•  How it works	

•  Your Offense Plan	

•  Your Defense Plan
Introduction
Negativeads
The Wesleyan Media Project	

Negativity	

Negative	

Contrast	

Positive	

2000	

 2004	

 2008	

 2012	

20%	

40%	

60%	

80%	

100%
20%	

19%	

Obama	

McCain	

Primary	

Election	

June-November	

68%	

62%	

18%	

Negativity	

Obama 30 min	

Hope	

Change	

Fear	

Professor William Benoit, Ohio University	

Negative Campaign Ads
AdTypes	

Negative	

Opponent	

Weaknesses	

Positive	

You	

Strengths	

Benefits	

 Costs
WholeStory	

 Opponent’s 
Positive 	

Campaign	

Your 
Negative 	

Campaign
NegativeAds	

Negative	

Opponent	

Weaknesses	

	

Comparative	

Attack
Compare	

Negative	

Opponent	

Weaknesses	

	

Compare	

Contrast	

Attack	

You +	

Them -	

All about	

opponent
Inform	

Debate	

Character	

Intellect
Business	

Negative	

Opponent	

Weaknesses	

	

Compare	

Contrast	

Attack	

Fear	

Uncertainty	

Doubt
Shockvertising	

Bacteria 	

are lurking
everywhere!
Shockvertising
Politics	

Negative	

Opponent	

Weaknesses	

	

Compare	

Contrast	

Attack	

Fear	

(Anxiety)	

Anger	

	

Disgust	

argumentum ad metum
Themes	

✓	

✓	

✓	

✗	

✗	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time	

Compare and 
contrast is good	

	

Democracy 
requires negativity	

•  Accountability	

•  Criticize problems	

•  Better Options	

•  Fully informed
What will happen	

	

Costs	

Consequences	

Full Story	

	

Willing to pay price?	

Themes	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time
But tell the	

truth	

Themes	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time
What happened	

	

Accomplishments	

Failures	

	

Opponent Failed	

Themes	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time
Credibility	

	

Unfit	

Not Capable	

	

Opponent Will Fail	

Themes	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time
Character	

	

Morals	

Trust	

	

Oooops	

Themes	

Person	

 Policy	

Past	

Future	

Message	

Time
Warning	

argumentum ad hominem

is not valid debate tactic

When the
debate is lost,
slander
becomes the
tool of the loser.
- Socrates
Objectives
Winning	

✗	
  
50%	

of voters	

+1
Winning	

✔	
  
50%	

of votes	

+1	

Critical bit	

Total	

Voters	

Total	

Votes
10% might not vote	

30% already decided	

20% persuadable	

40% will not vote	

Objective
Independent	

Undecided	

2Party	

Democrat	

 Republican	

Mobilize 	

your 	

supporters	

Suppress	

their	

supporters
Independent	

Undecided	

2Party	

Democrat	

 Republican	

Suppress 	

the middle
Center	

MultiParty	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Conservative	

Party	

Liberal	

Party	

New	

Democrat	

Party	

Undecided
Center	

MultiParty	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Undecided	

Party 3	

Party 2	

Party 1	

 Party 4
SwingStates	

 800,000 independent voters	

in 12 swing states
Opinion	

I do not agree with 
voter suppression 
because I see it as a manipulative
strategy to prevent people from
exercising their democratic 
rights and obligations.
How i	

How it works
CavemanPolitics	

Nega1ve	
  Bias	
  =	
  Survival	
  
LossAversion	

Is	
  everyone	
  doing	
  their	
  part?	
  
LossAversion	

 The pain of loss 
is almost twice as
strong as the reward
felt from a gain	

Pleasure	

Pain	

Loss	

 Gain	

Small	

Pleasure	

Big	

Pain	

 Counter-balanced by	

Optimism bias
•  Confirmation bias	

•  Negativity bias	

•  In-group bias	

•  Gambler’s fallacy	

•  Observational selection bias	

•  Status-quo bias	

•  Bandwagon effect	

•  Projection bias	

•  Current moment bias	

•  Anchoring effect	

CognitiveBiases
DefenseSystem	

Force	
  field	
  
Fear	

Anger	

Humor	

Positive	

Promise	

Hope
Process	

 • Fear	
  
• Anger	
  
• Disgust	
  
• Hope	
  
Emotion	

Reason
Adoration
Attraction
Affection
Fondness
Compassion
Passion
Caring
Liking
Longing
Tenderness
Love	
   Joy	
   Sadness	
   Anger	
  Fear	
  
Pleasure
Enthusiasm
Happiness
Satisfaction
Eagerness
Cheerfulness
Optimism
Contentment
Relief
Pride
Zest
Grief
Sorrow
Misery
Disappointment
Hopelessness
Depression
Despair
Unhappiness
Loneliness
Shame
Regret
Remorse
Frustration
Irritation
Exasperation
Resentment
Torment
Rage
Disgust
Agitation
Envy
Jealousy
Bitterness
Hate
Anxiety
Worry
Distress
Horror
Dread
Shock
Terror
Fright
Panic
Hysteria
Apprehension
Emotions
FAD	

Flight	

 Fight	

 Avoid
Fear	

Flight	

	

Fear is a response to a
stimulus perceived as a threat 
– either now or in future.	

	

•  Rapid decisions	

•  Black or white thinking	

•  Herd mentality
Anger	

Fight	

	

Anger is a response related to
psychological interpretation
of having been threatened.	

	

•  Powerful tool	

•  Catalyst for action	

•  Optimism + control	

•  Respected response
Disgust	

Avoid	

	

Disgust is a feeling of
revulsion to the unhealthy.	

	

•  Risk minimization	

•  Preventative response	

•  Withdraw + avoid	

•  Long tem imprint	

	

Contempt = Anger + Disgust
Disgusting?	

Mylie Cyrus
Disgusting?	

Good role model 	

for our daughters?
Disgust	

1.6	
  
1.8	
  
2.0	
  
2.2	
  
Disgust	
  Sensi1vity	
  
Conserva1ves	
  are	
  more	
  easily	
  
disgusted	
  than	
  Liberals	
  
Inbar, Pizarro, Iyer  Haidt (2012) “Disgust sensitivity, political conservatism and voting”
N	
  =	
  29,623	
  in	
  USA	
  
Neuroscientist 	

Paul D. MacLean, 1960s 	

TheBrain	

3	

 1.	
  	
  Rep%lian	
  
	
  	
  	
  FEAR	
  
	
  	
  	
  Fight	
  or	
  Flight	
  
	
  
2.	
  Limbic	
  
	
  	
  	
  Emo1ons	
  +	
  Values	
  
	
  	
  	
  amygdala	
  hijacking	
  
	
  
3.	
  Neocortex	
  
	
  	
  	
  Ra1onal	
  Thought	
  
2	

1
System 2	

DualProcess	

Fast and easy	

Slow and difficult	

System 1
DualProcess	

 1890	

 William James 	

 Associative	

 True Reason	

1986	

 Petty  Cacioppo 	

 Peripheral	

 Central	

1996	

 Steven Sloman	

 Associative	

 Rule Based	

2000	

 Stanovich  West	

 System 1	

 System 2	

2003	

 Daniel Kahneman 	

 Intuitive	

 Reasoning	

2004	

 Strack  Deutch	

 Impulsive	

 Reflective	

2011	

 Daniel Kahneman 	

 Fast	

 Slow
FastorSlow
FastorSlow	

Cumulative Resources	

CumulativeValueCreated	

80%	

98%	

X	

 2X	

Fast	

System 1	

Slow	

System 2
FastANDSlow	

Slow You	

System 2	

Fast You	

System 1
Your Offense Plan
Goals	

Negative ads that
work aren’t ‘negative.’ 

They are ‘hard-hitting
issue ads about our
opponent’s record of
shame!’	

	

Alex Castellanos	

Republican strategist
AllPositive	

2004 
“No Negative” Campaign

It doesn’t pay to 	

be a Boy scout.
Process	

EffortExpense	

Election	

Election	

Election
Campaign	

Positive Campaign 	

Educate 	

	

	

Negative	

Feel	

Negative	

 Positive
Process	

Duration	

EffortExpense	

Election	

Election	

Election
Campaign	

Prepare	

Negative	

Prepared	

Precondition	

reporters	

Educate	

voters
Preparation	

“It’s not the will to win that matters	

- everyone has that.	

It’s the will to prepare to win that matter.”	

- Paul “Bear” Bryant
Research	

	

Strengths	

 Weaknesses	

Opportunities	

 Threats	

Internal	

External
StartTime	

E-Day	

C-start	

?	

?	

?	

When to start?	

- The sooner the better, but ….	

Resources	

Broke	

Too early?	

Too late?
AdBudget	

The Wesleyan Media Project	

Daily	
  Number	
  of	
  Ads	
  
Republican	
  Democrat	
  
5,000	
  5,000	
  
-­‐140	
   -­‐120	
   -­‐100	
   -­‐80	
   -­‐60	
   -­‐40	
   -­‐20	
   0	
  
Days	
  to	
  Elec1on	
  
2008	
  Daily	
  Democra1c	
  and	
  Republican	
  Ads	
  
Elec1on	
  Day	
  
NegativeTiming	

Duration	

AS%oftotalads	

Election	

100%	

50%	

Scenario B	

Scenario C	

Negative Campaign Expenses	

Scenario A
Targets	

Media	

Voters	

Opponent	

 Put opponent on defensive	

Influence them to investigate	

- get earned media	

Influence	

•  suppress the undecided	

•  force voters to reassess	

•  mobilize your support base.
InfluenceRipples	

David Armano
1	
  
3	
  
3	
  
3	
  
3	
  
3	
  
4	
  
4	
  
4	
  
4	
  
4	
   4	
  
4	
  
4	
  
4	
  
4	
  
2	
  
2	
  
2	
  
X	
  
3	
  
4	
  
4	
  
2	
  
4	
  
You	

3rd Party
You can’t make the
campaign about something
people don’t want the
campaign to be about.
Independent	

Undecided	

Negative	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Motivate and
Mobilize your core	

Demotivate and 	

Suppress their core
Negative	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Motivate and
Mobilize your core	

Anger	

Fight
Negative	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Demotivate and 	

Suppress their core	

Fear	

Flight
Independent	

Undecided	

Negative	

Progressive	

 Conservative	

Suppress 	

the middle
Positive	

Optimism	

Happiness
2016: Obama's America 	

	

2012 documentary by
conservative author |
and commentator
Dinesh D'Souza.	

	

July 13, 2012 (limited)	

August 24, 2012 (wide	

	

Run Time 	

89 minutes	

Budget	

$2.5 million	

Negativev2.0
Validate	

Test before you attack!
KnowOpponent	

If you know your enemies and know yourself,
you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles.	

Sun Tzu, The Art of War
HonestyinAds	

 People	
  want	
  ads	
  that	
  are:	
  
•  More	
  about	
  issues	
  than	
  traits	
  
•  Issues	
  that	
  relate	
  to	
  governing	
  
•  Be	
  more	
  specific	
  than	
  vague	
  
•  Prove	
  it	
  through	
  documenta1on	
  
	
  
Nega)ve	
  ads	
  are	
  more	
  about	
  	
  
real	
  issues	
  than	
  are	
  posi)ve	
  ads	
  
John	
  C.	
  Greer,	
  In	
  Defense	
  of	
  Nega1vity	
  
Topics	

 Attack your opponent where you are strongest	

- make opponent part of your story	

	

1.  About the public record and issues	

2.  What the costs of their policies will be	

1.  Past policies	

2.  Future Policies	

3.  Qualifications of your opponent	

1.  Experience: Have they been in office before?	

2.  Traits: Do they flip-flop?	

3.  Out of touch?
Topics	

 1.  Be Fair: Make sure you throw clean mud!	

•  Factual and documented	

2.  Us substantive arguments	

3.  Say something positive about your opponent 
then disagree	

4.  Use negative ads judiciously 	

•  Strategically timed	

•  Use in moderation at proper intervals	

	

5.  Graphic and audio design = emotion
Playbooks	

Karl Rove	

 Saul Alinsky
Right-KarlRove	

Rovian Counter-thrust	

Take away your opponents
competitive advantage	

The	
  Rovian	
  Playbook:	
  Campaign	
  Tac1cs	
  
	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  1:	
  Take	
  the	
  offensive	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  2:	
  Aaack	
  your	
  opponent’s	
  strengths	
  	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  3:	
  Accuse	
  your	
  opponent	
  of	
  what	
  they	
  will	
  accuse	
  you	
  of	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  4:	
  Go	
  Nega1ve,	
  then	
  cry	
  foul	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  5:	
  The	
  “Big	
  Lie”	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  6:	
  Appeal	
  to	
  moral	
  values	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  7	
  Sell	
  the	
  Bush	
  persona	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  8:	
  Sell	
  an	
  adolescent	
  worldview	
  
Tac1c	
  	
  9:	
  Exploit	
  the	
  media	
  
Tac1c	
  10:	
  Create	
  straw	
  issues	
  
Tac1c	
  11:	
  Employ	
  surrogates	
  	
  
Tac1c	
  12:	
  Use	
  emo1onal	
  appeals	
  
Tac1c	
  13:	
  Rely	
  on	
  expert	
  tes1monials	
  
Tac1c	
  14:	
  Rhetorical	
  devices	
  
Tac1c	
  15:	
  Use	
  of	
  language	
  
Saul Alinsky – Rules for Radicals	

	

1.  Power is not only what you have 
but what the enemy thinks you have.	

2.  Never go outside the experience of your people.	

3.  Go outside the experience of the enemy. 	

4.  Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules.	

5.  Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.	

6.  A good tactic is one that your people enjoy.	

7.  A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.	

8.  Keep the pressure on.	

9.  The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.	

10. If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through.	

11.  The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.	

12. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.	

Left-SaulAlinsky
Playbooks	

 Obama teaching the Alinsky Model
Your Defense Plan
BeReady	

Duration	

EffortExpense	

Election	

Election	

Election
Campaign	

Prepare	

Negative	

Prepared	

By failing to prepare, 
you are preparing to fail. 	

― Benjamin Franklin
StayonCourse	

Opponent story	

Your story	

Election	

Pull off story 	
  
Stay on story
Defense	

Stay on 	

Message	

Counter attack	

Add to your story	

Ignore	

Frivolous 	

Strong Rebuttal	

On Core Issues
Defense	

Admit	

Deny	

Deflect	

Stonewall
Formal	
  fallacies	
  
Proposi1onal	
  fallacies	
  
Quan1fica1on	
  fallacies	
  
Formal	
  syllogis1c	
  fallacies	
  
	
  
Red	
  herring	
  fallacies	
  
•  associa1on	
  fallacy	
  
•  appeal	
  to	
  emo1on	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  hominum	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  populum	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  baculum	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  consequen1am	
  
Informal	
  fallacies	
  
•  false	
  aaribu1on	
  
•  if-­‐by-­‐whiskey	
  	
  
•  moral	
  high	
  ground	
  
•  moralis1c	
  fallacy	
  
•  moving	
  the	
  goalposts	
  	
  
•  onus	
  probandi	
  
•  pe11o	
  principii	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  nauseam	
  
•  argumentum	
  ad	
  temperan1am	
  
•  argumentum	
  e	
  silen1o	
  
•  cum	
  hoc	
  ergo	
  propter	
  hoc	
  
•  circulus	
  in	
  demonstrando	
  
LogicFallacies
OutofTouch?	

Be the	

People
BePositive	

Stay	

Humble
BePositive	

Our strength does not come 
from what we fight against 
but from what we fight for.
Contact	

Zeljko	
  Zidaric	
  
Civic	
  Innova1on	
  Incubator	
  
	
  
zzidaric@gmail.com	
  

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