It tells about what helped Narendra Modi be elected as India’s new prime minister and the new geo-political reset it demands. While there was huge propaganda against Modi as a Hindu extremist supported mainly by Sadhus and saints, the elections revealed it were Indian youths who took him as an avatar of modernity and progress. In reputed international Media, rise of Modi was claimed as India’s Abe, but Chinese experts have analyzed - he can be India’s Nixon. If Modi’s rise and the new geo-strategic significances it carried, are well realized and if is followed with suitable policy adjustments in world capitals, the world will certainly be able to solve major global problems with grand new possibilities. Instead, if major powers fail to understand its significance with Modi, the world may make efforts to form new alliances that may initiate a new phase of Cold War.

1. 1
MMOODDII’’SS IINNDDIIAA AANNDD TTHHEE WWOORRLLDD HHEE CCOONNFFRROONNTTSS
Keshav Prasad Bhattarai
When someone has ability to lead people with their hopes, can ensure hope to govern people,
promise for them, perform for them, and can convince people – it is him who can work and
create opportunities for them, nothing is impossible for him or her.
This is what Narendra Damodardas Modi did in the recent Indian parliamentary election and
makes people believe that their hope is their most powerful weapon to change their life and
their society. He exhibited his exceptional ability to work with that hope and make it a
reality.
He knew what people want from him, knew what could energize them, and knew how they
themselves could become their change agent. Millions of proud youth voters, who dreamed
for a new, strong, stable, and prosperous India, stood by him.
A Spanish Scholar, politician and former Director General of UNESCO Federico Mayor was more
than right when he said, “Foresight is a duty and shortsightedness is a crime”.
Again, Modi proved he has both foresight and vision with exceptional ability to share with his
fellow citizens and translate them into reality.
Moreover, see his imagination in diplomacy. While critics were making fun of his inexperience
in foreign policy - mostly needed to lead an emerging world power, the newly elected Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a brilliant diplomatic move in inviting all leaders of
SAARC countries in his swearing in ceremony and was able to turn the event as an unofficial
SAARC Summit. The message was clear - he can stand tall in performing his duty to his nation
and the region where India pivots - with foresight as duty as Mayor said.
Besides, his first unexpected diplomatic move to invite the regional leaders of South Asia in
his swearing in ceremony, has demonstrated his ambition, resolve, action, leadership and
above all - a vision that the World’s largest democracy demands from its highly expected
leader.
India’s outgoing Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh in a speech he delivered at Dhaka
University on September 2011, had made a time tested remark; “I believe in all sincerity that
India will not be able to realize its own destiny without the partnership of its South Asian
neighbours.” Therefore, Dr. Singh continued, “establishing relations of friendship and trust
with our neighbours” and “creation and consolidation of a peaceful and prosperous regional
environment in South Asia are the highest priority of our government”.
A sober Dr. Singh had made a right statement, but he could hardly make any substantial
attempt to attain what he really believed. However, his successor Narendra Modi - presented
in western and Pakistani media as a hawkish Hindu leader and claimed by many as novice in
foreign affairs - broke a new ground in diplomacy with imagination. The message he gave to
the leaders of SAARC region was clear as his predecessor said – until all India’s neighbors are

2. 2
part of the process, India can never progress. For example, he asked Nepal’s Prime Minister
Susheel Koirala - come with clear-cut and well-prepared development agenda, India is ready
to work on that.
The way of his dealing with his immediate neighbors invited admiration from countries like
China and the United States.
Fortunately, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif shared similar imagination. The natural
warmth Sharif received in India - has virtually changed the mood of Pakistani public opinion.
Despite pressures from Pakistani hardliners, Pakistani Prime Minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif was
equally bold and decisive in accepting the invitation and attending the ceremony. As an
experienced politicians and a diplomat, Sharif convinced the Indian as well as Pakistani public
that sincerity and courage means in mending bilateral relations than with sour and unending
political rhetoric.
Hundreds of reason could be invented to upkeep a frosty relations governing both countries
for long. That is an easy job, but to take a small step at the right direction at the right time,
is great and even demands mountains of strong will and courage. Fortunately, both Modi and
Sharif exhibited will and courage and both they have abided themselves by the bold and
confident diplomatic mission initiated by Atal Bihari Vajpayee while Sharif himself was in
power in 1999.
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While Modi’s rival politicians and their parties were launching “Hate Modi Campaign, but as
Shashi Tharoor – the spokesperson of Congress Party admits, people took him as an avatar of
modernity and progress".
As stated earlier, Modi at best knew than all his opponents that only his success in addressing
the dreams of millions of Indian youths, could led him and his party to power. “For them
youth may be a voter, but for the BJP youth is a power” was his favorite mantra. It made
Indian youth feel proud and recognized.
From the very beginning, Modi had known what weapons his opponents had with them against
him. Hindutwa was his clear agenda, but Indians knew it much better that Hindutwa was not
just a faith or religion, but a philosophy, a way of life and a civilization.
An atheist that does not believe in God or even criticize God can remain a Hindu. It is not
easy for a non-Hindu to understand and realize this. Even in Hindu religious texts, those who
oppose Gods, fought against Gods, dishonor the Gods, but if remained true to his religion -
that means his duty, no God – even the supreme one could punish him. Because the Gods too,
was to serve the same religion or duty that an ordinary man was to follow.
Obviously, to be a Hindu is to be a secular, but at times when provoked by other religious
community, unfortunately, some Hindus have resorted to retaliation and occasionally, that
has tarnished India’s image.

3. 3
Therefore, huge efforts were placed within and outside India to present Narendra Modi as a
Hindu extremist and create deep divisions among people with this as their weapon. But,
among Indian masses especially among the youths, he carried a great appeal founded not on
false promises, but on the performances he attained as Gujrat’s Chief Minister and the most
successful economy he was able to deliver to Gujarati people. They thought, if Modi wins, the
country would replicate Gujrat’s achievements to all over the country, create millions of job
for them, improve their lives, and would be able to deliver them a strong and prosperous
India.
Modi’s personality and his hard work was indeed the main reason for BJP’s resounding
electoral victory. However, the BJP leadership’s visionary decision to nominate Modi as their
prime ministerial candidate and most significantly their strong, and highly committed and
disciplined organizational structure, has also contributed much for this resounding popular
mandate. Together with Modi’s achievement as a successful Chief Minister of India’s most
developed state and the qualities of his leadership created a new history for India.
The United States, western media, India’s opposition parties and Pakistan were treating Modi
as a pariah and were presenting one-sided picture for an alleged connivance at a very
unfortunate communal violence that killed 720 Muslims, 250 Hindus in Gujrat in 2002. In
Indian context, it was a spontaneous retaliation against 58 Hindu pilgrims who were burned
alive in a train - among them 25, were women and 15 children.
The train - called Sabarmati Express was carrying some 2000 people –mostly Hindu pilgrims
from Ayodhaya. The crowd attacking the train and burning people alive were Muslims.
While independent investigations and the Supreme Court of India exonerated Modi from all
such charges, the western media - from the reputed New York Times and UK based Guardian
to acclaimed magazines like Foreign Affairs and The Economist, have continued their Modi
bashing inclinations up to now. Similarly, Indian political forces considered close to western
government, have been trying hard to reconcile with the truth.
Undoubtedly, Modi as the Chief Minister was morally responsible for both activities; he
accepted its moral responsibility and even tendered his resignation. But, huge efforts at
national and international level to drag him to the case and accuse him for being directly
responsible for the violence against the Muslims, could find no subscribers among Indian
people. Because they knew the truth much better than most of the political parties fighting
the election with a single agenda - that was targeted against Modi.
MMOODDII’’SS VVIICCTTOORRYY BBEEAARRSS SSTTRROONNGG MMEESSSSAAGGEE FFOORR GGLLOOBBAALL GGEEOO--PPOOLLIITTIICCSS
Andrew MacAskill and Kartikay Mehrotra for Bloomberg Business week, have summed up geo-
political significance of Modi government as thus - “Since winning the biggest Indian electoral
mandate in 30 years last week, Prime Minister-designate Modi has spoken twice on the phone
with U.S. President Barack Obama, became one of three Twitter users followed by Japan
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and pledged to make relations with Russia “even stronger.” China’s
state-run Global Times newspaper published an op-ed column saying he’s likely to be “India’s
Nixon.”

4. 4
Speeches delivered by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US Defense Secretary Chuk Hagel
and Deputy Chief of Chinese Army Gen. Wang Guanzhong at the just concluded Shangri La
Dialogue, tells much in itself where Modi has to tread its regional strategic role. The latest
round of high profile - Asia Security Summit organized by renowned London - headquartered
global think tank - International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), has clearly exhibited the
strategic scenario of the present day world that embeds Modi.
In his heated remarks, General Guanzhong while departing from his prepared speech was
compelled to lambast at Japan and the United States for their coordinated but provocative
threats against China. Guanzhong was highly critical of both America and Japan for alleging
his country - showing disrespect for international law and established practices. General
Guanzhong while firing back claimed, the US and Japan were bidding to expand their
hegemony in the region.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in his keynote address explicitly expressed his country’s
willingness to play a larger role in regional security while supporting the Philippines and
Vietnam in their territorial dispute with China in South China Sea. Further he reiterated his
government’s policy to provide “ten new patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard”,
“three brand-new patrol vessels to Indonesia” and planning “to provide such vessels to
Vietnam as well.”
In the first Plenary Session of Shangri La Dialogue Obama’s Defense Secretary Chuk Hagal had
clearly challenged China while saying - “The U.S. military would not abide by China’s
unilateral declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea, including
over the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands”, and would strongly stand for “the mutual
defense treaty with Japan”. Reiterating US’s rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific policy, Hagal
claimed, “The rebalance is not a goal, not a promise, or a vision – it’s a reality. . .” and
America is “committed to maintaining our leadership in the 21st century.”
Three days earlier, US President Barrack Obama in his remarks at a military academy on May
28, - as claimed by analysts and White House officials as his major foreign policy speech had
said, “America must always lead on the world stage. If we don’t, no one else will.”
It is crucial to note that while Hagal was announcing strong strategic posture against China in
Singapore, he laid much hope to expand its strategic partnership with India as “one of the
United States’ most important, democratic partners – and a country with historic influence
across Asia”. Hagel further elaborated US’s India policy under the Modi government and
welcomed India’s increasingly active role in Asia to strengthen regional order and its “growing
defense capabilities”. He also expressed his country’s commitment to strengthen defense ties
with India, and drive for a “more transformational cooperation”.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was full of warmth and appreciative of a formidable
Narendra Modi coming to power and expects long-term cooperative economic and strategic
relations that will make "confluence of the two seas" that in his own explanation “is the
Pacific and Indian Oceans, peaceful and more prosperous”.

5. 5
WWIILLLL MMOODDII BBEE IINNDDIIAA’’SS AABBEE OORR IINNDDIIAA’’SS NNIIXXOONN??
Interesting debates have found spaces in western and Chinese media. First, noted scholar
Brahma Chellaney termed Narendra Modi as “India’s Shinzo Abe” in Project Syndicate.
Chellaney compared “Japan’s determination to reinvent itself as a more competitive and
confident country” preceding its political instability with that of India to reflect “Indian’s
desire for dynamic, assertive leader to help revitalize their country’s economy and security.”
However, many more are there - especially in western media like Jeffrey W. Hornung and
Shyam Tekwani (The Diplomat, May 27, 2014), showing no appetite to accept peoples’ large
verdict in favor of Modi and are trying to tarnish his image only to serve their prejudices. In
addition, the psychological pressure with such media hype could be noticed in governments
too and it might be their intentions too.
So was the West slow and hesitant - especially the United States. The US was only awoken
only after the election results were almost clear and thereafter the White House
immediately announced that Modi “will be welcomed in the United States” - that also in a
way that is doing a great favor to Modi. It was followed by a call from US President Obama.
Compared to America, China and Japan exhibited bigger political and diplomatic maturity in
handling the issue.
China is aware and seems worried on the strategic development in the region it belongs. It
also knows well that India can upend the balance if tilts to either side.
China has its border disputes with India since China occupied Tibet. Nature of the trilateral
relations between India, China, and Pakistan has become a constant source of fissures in
China’s relations with India. But, both sides know history cannot be erased in one day and
indeed, it can be reshaped with better diplomacy and statesmanship. Both India and China
are doing this and Modi has exhibited he can do this.
Better explorations in trade relations and managing political differences with a country of 1.2
billion people - most prominent and promising among the emerging economies, is sure to give
a new momentum to China’s economy moving fast to be number one.
Obviously, India is a fast growing military power with its exemplary geo-strategic location in
Indian Ocean and in Malacca straits, gives India a similar strategic edge that China has in the
Himalayan region.
Congratulating Narendra Modi for his historic electoral victory, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang
termed China and India as “natural cooperation partners” that would not only benefit their
peoples, but also make a major contribution to settling the issue of development of the entire
humanity.

6. 6
China’s diplomatic fine-tuning worked well. When Li Keqauiang made a first telephone call as
a foreign head of government to congratulate Modi as the 15th Prime Minister of India, Modi
returned it with open heart. Replying Li Modi said China is always a priority in India's foreign
policy and his government is resolved to exploit the full potential of strategic and cooperative
Partnership with China to attain their long-term developmental goals.
Modi made a sharp move and extended an invitation to President Xi Jinping to pay a visit to
India through premier Li. Modi’s sweeping diplomacy worked and China’s foreign minister
Wang Yi is visiting India next week, and perhaps, the visit is aimed to extend an invitation to
Narendra Modi and find out possibilities for making Modi’s visit to China and Xi’s visit to India
any time this year. If both sides are prepared to make a breakthrough in consolidating their
relationship and give it a new direction, Modi can become India’s Nixon.
MMAAJJOORR PPOOWWEERRSS CCAANN MMAAKKEE TTHHEE WWOORRLLDD MMUUCCHH BBIIGGGGEERR TTHHAANN IITT IISS
Countries like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan make ongoing assessments of
promising leaders - in their neighborhood and make efforts to remain in touch with them from
years before they come to power. In such study, their focus is mainly China followed by India
and others. China does the same in countries of its major concern mainly in its neighborhood.
Even United States had invested much of its diplomatic efforts in wooing Xi JInping before he
was elected China’s President. However, when it is India and Modi, America disappointingly
failed to put its diplomatic mechanizations oiled and ordered.
Evidentially, while the US and Europe was busy in blaming Modi for an unfounded incident and
even exonerated by the Supreme Court of India, China had invited Modi four times during the
time he was chief minister of Gujrat. The largest chunk of Chinese investment in India was
channeled to Gujrat. Japan was similarly enthusiastic and it has already been agreed that by
2016, some 100 Japanese companies with millions of dollars are planning to invest in Gujrat.
Indubitably, it pays not only in economy, but also in politics, diplomacy, and better
environment for enhancing global peace as well.
Chinese knew it much earlier that better explorations in trade relations and managing
political differences with a country of India’s size and population, most prominent and
promising among the emerging economies, is sure to give a new momentum to China’s
economy - that is making fast move to become number one - any time within a decade.
Healthier relations with India count much in achieving this aim.
Obviously, India is a fast growing military power with its exemplary geo-strategic location in
Indian Ocean and in Malacca straits, giving India similar strategic edge that China has in the
Himalayan region.
Among the world’s major military powers, India’s relation with Russia has stood tall and true
even at the most critical times of its history. They have left no space for any grievances
between them. Both Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are highly appreciative of the
traditional relations existing between them. Strategic Agreement signed between India and

7. 7
Russia in 2000, has opened doors for the purchase and production of advanced Russian tanks,
armored vehicles, and fighter aircraft under Russian licenses in India. That also included the
transfer of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to India - named as INS Vikramaditya.
Interestingly, if nothing dramatic happens, Putin will rule Russia for over a decade from now.
Likewise, if the popularity, mandate and the work of his first few days as the 15th Prime
Minister of India is any indication, Narendra Modi will continue to lead his country at least for
the other five years term- that also means total ten years.
Coincidently, by the established political practices China’s President Xi Jinping and Premier Li
Keqauiang will continue to lead China for about the same time.
Ironically, the world’s most powerful country – the United States has problems with all these
three major powers. With Russia, it is worst since the end of Cold War. America is confronting
with China in every regional and global forum. India has a most popular and powerful Prime
Minister for over a period of 30 years, but unfortunately, an unpleasant historical incidence -
a denial of US Visa in 2005, is still haunting both countries. American media and its
intellectuals are taking pleasures at blaming the most popular leader of the world’s largest
democracy.
Whether the world would shrink or grow wide in its ability to advance peaceful global order,
economic progress, and peoples’ freedom, it depends upon the relations between and among
these four countries.
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According to Robert Kagan (New Republic, May 26, 2014), today more than 50 percent of
Americans believe the United States plays “a less important and powerful role as a world
leader than it did a decade ago.” Kagan further says - decline of its power has not panicked
American, but they have taken it something as a relief. Because, they mean - with less power
they are bound to share “fewer responsibilities”.
Kagan’s thought provoking narrative in the New Republic mentioned above is titled as –
“Superpowers Don't Get to Retire What our tired country still owes the world”. The new
world order created some 70 years ago from the rubble of World War II by and around the
power of the United States, may show signs of cracking or collapsing, but a country of its size,
military and economic power, cannot get retire at its will.
A war-fatigued America with a weakened economy may be finding hard to continue its
unchallenged global leadership after the end of Cold War and may wish for some kind of
retirement.
Such a retirement of the world’s largest military and economic power will only bring peril all
over the world. Even its worst rival power don’t want America go from the sight outright,
because no power on earth to this day has power and capacity to maintain global order led by
the United States.

8. 8
Any one may differ with President Obama’s speech as mentioned earlier - “America must
always lead on the world stage. If we don’t, no one else will”. Nevertheless, in substance he
cannot be challenged outright.
Therefore, for Modi and for Obama, both have limited options in managing their relations.
America cannot ignore the world’s largest democracy with 1.2 billion people, a growing
economy with huge potential for reviving its own economy. President Obama also knows that
no other major power than India value the values of freedom and democracy that America has
led since it came into existence.
However, compared to President George W Bush, President Obama has given relatively low
attention to India during his presidency. One example is enough to confirm this. The U.S. –
India Civil Nuclear Agreement for which Manmohan Singh even risked his government and
President Bush, had invested his total diplomatic influence and political commitment to turn
it as his major milestone in foreign policy during his presidency, has become a lame
agreement under Obama.
As a pragmatist politician, Modi will try his best efforts to normalize the relations with the
US. As a Prime Minister of one of the major world power, he cannot hurt its relations with the
world’s most powerful country or remain aloof from it. But, to add warmth in it would equally
be Obama’s responsibility. The first such opportunity would probably be the annual UN
General Assembly in September when America can do much to iron out all the differences
existing between the two largest democracies.
According to David Gordon and Jordan Schneider in Foreign Affairs, a rising China and
desperate but militarily still indomitable Russia can make for a formidable geopolitical pair
sharing some common strategic interests in constraining the West and protecting their
national sovereignty. If such a strategic partnership takes place, it would naturally lay the
foundation for a new Cold War.
And if America fails in strengthening its relations with India with the warmth and commitment
similar to George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice period, Modi’s India may go closer to Russia
to update its defense need. Easy access in huge Chinese markets and Russia’s infrastructure
development boom can easily lure Indian government to invigorate Indian economy and
create millions of jobs as to the expectations of Indian masses.
Obviously, when China, Russia, and India come together, then the existing global balance of
power carries less meaning.
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Dimitri K. Simes has written a revealing story on – Losing Russia, in Foreign Affairs.
According to Simes, “Washington's crucial error lay in its propensity to treat post-Soviet Russia
as a defeated enemy.” It was not a US vs. Russia war – but a war that Soviet people including
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and Russian President Boris Yeltsin joined hands with America
and fought together against the monolithic communist dictatorship. The real winner were the

9. 9
people of former Soviet Union, but America never tried to let them feel this and began to
behave Russia as a defeated country. (For detail please read - PUTIN PUTS IN WHEN NATO
AND EU MOVE EAST – OPED, Eurasia Review April 8, 2014)
In his critical analysis, Simes further notes - the unmistakable impression that Washington
always left was that “making Russia a strategic partner has never been a major priority”. All
the US presidents always expected unconditional Russian cooperation at the US will and
especially Clinton administration viewed Russia like postwar Germany or Japan – a country
that could be forced to follow U.S. dictates. Schimes concludes, “Russia was transformed, not
defeated”, but the U.S. and NATO failed to understand this and that profoundly shaped U.S.
Russia relations at present situation.
This American policy has also transformed the world in such a way that the real winner of the
end of Cold War and dissolution of Soviet Union is not the U.S. or Russian people, but People’s
Republic of China - in economic, military, and strategic terms.
While Soviet Union was there, United States had to compete with a huge military power
backed by a weak economy. But with the rise of China, United States has to race with a
formidable economic and military power – that is still young to gain its high rise. Still there is
Russia although economically weak but militarily still indomitable. Russia’s joining hands
with China could well serve the global strategic ambition of a rising China.
While returning to India, in substance it seems, American policy towards India is not much
inspiring. While the political and even moral appeal of western-modeled democracy is
shrinking worldwide, and even its popularity and rationality of democracy is being questioned
even in the countries of its origins, India has exhibited largest show of democratic practice
developed by western countries and substantiated how the western democratic values are
still relevant.
Furthermore, after thirty years, Indian voters gave clear and an overwhelming majority to a
party and its alliance- that has always stood stronger against so many sectarian pulls –
undermining universal ideals of freedom and democracy. But again the voice from western
capitals has failed to show the moral satisfaction that a developing country facing
challenges of Himalayan scale to run democratic polity smoothly - has never shied away
from its trust and confidence in democratic ideals since its independence in 1947 and has
always been able to conduct its parliamentary elections uninterrupted.
According to Stefan Halper, when a reporter accused John Maynard Keynes for the
inconsistency in his thoughts, the most acclaimed economist of the 20th Century retorted,
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?
When time changes, situation changes, leaders are changed and facts also are changed, such
a changed situation demands new decisions and so are the way how the great decisions are
taken.
What Keynes has said applies everywhere – from economics to politics and from diplomacy to
strategic affairs.

10. 10
Indubitably, America has failed to acknowledge the facts from the Soviet Union, in Russia,
and in many other places. At times, this has betrayed its own history and its vital geo-political
interests.
Likely, United States, to please those playing against Modi government, may be tempted to
undermine the mandate Narendra Modi received in recent general election and ignore the
change India initiates.
This way, if the U.S. fails to acknowledge the change and change its mind accordingly,
emerging geo-strategic environment can take a sharp turn that would ultimately undermine
vital American strategic interests and the values of freedom and democracy - already
remaining defensive in many parts of the world.
kpbnepal@gmail.com
Eurasia Review June 6, 2014
www.eurasiareview.com/author/keshav-prasad-bhattarai/