Mobiletrends2020lo 100106060739-phpapp01

mobile trends for the next 10
a collaborative outlook
compliled by Rudy De Waele / m-trends.org

contributors

Douglas Rushkoff 4 Kevin C. Tofel 33
Katrin Verclas 5 Jonathan MacDonald 34
Willem Boijens 6 David Wood 36
Timo Arnall 7 Michael Breidenbruecker 37
Gerd Leonhard 9 Henri Moissinac 38
Fabien Girardin 10 Andreas Constantinou 39
Alan Moore 11 C. Enrique Ortiz 40
Martin Duval 12 Raj Singh 42
Tony Fish 13 Marc Davis 43
Ilja Laurs 14 David Harper 44
Yuri van Geest 15 Loic Le Meur 45
Nicolas Nova 17 Ajit Jaokar 47
Raimo van der Klein 18 Inma Martinez 48
Russell Buckley 19 Carlos Domingo 49
Tomi Ahonen 20 Kelly Goto 50
Stefan Constantinescu 21 Felix Petersen 51
Rich Wong 23 Matthaus Krzykowski 53
Marshall Kirkpatrick 24 Tom Hume 54
Andy Abramson 25 Atau Tanaka 55
Marek Pawlowski 26 Robert Rice 56
Russ McGuire 27 You! (if you like) 58
Carlo Longino 28
Howard Rheingold 30
Steve O'Hear 31 enjoy!
Ted Morgan 32

At the turn of a decade it's always worthwhile looking back to ones initial dreams.

In my case it was all about being at the forefront of innovation in the mobile space. From viewing my first mobile video in Helsinki to the
first mobile augmented reality demo in Amsterdam. I had the chance to participate in and witness many interesting projects in mobile
from the 1st row: as an entrepreneur, a strategist, a conference organizer, a blogger, a speaker and a networker with a mission to inspire
others, to help them in the process of building new great things.

To this end I have been writing down my predictions in mobile & wireless for a couple of years now. This year I thought it was the time to
move on and do something different, so I asked some of my personal heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends for
the coming decade.

All of them have been of great inspiration to me during this decade: for their ideas, visions, talent, the capabilities to adapt and the
perseverance to succeed whatever the situation. While I didn't know any one of these great people 10 years ago, I'm glad to have met
most of them and proud that some I can call them real friends.

I am in awe and grateful when I look at the wisdom and insight that these busy people were so happy to share with the world.

It is exactly in this spirit that I myself want to move on into the next decade. Convinced that more openness, knowledge sharing and
collaboration is key to facing our global challenges, in 2009, I co-founded dotopen.com. A space at the fuzzy edges of innovation,
dotopen.com will hopefully help many entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up, exchange, collaborate, create and
inspire.

I hope to meet you all there!

Rudy De Waele
co-founder dotopen.com, blogger, speaker
@mtrends
m-trends.org

BY NC ND

1. ESP sensors. Probably based on brainwave activity. Not so hard.
2. Driving locks.
3. Implanted bluetooth ear and microphone.
4. Verizon abandons CDMA.
5. Radiation and brain damage documented.
Douglas Rushkoff
Author of Life Inc.
@rushkoff
rushkoff.com

BY NC ND
4

Katrin Verclas
Co-founder & editor of MobileActive.org
@KatrinSkaya
mobileactive.org

1. Mobiles in social development will truly become an integral part of development projects
and programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech as
part of their programmes. UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard.

2. Africa will see the first truly mobile political campaign. It'll be likely in Nigeria in 2010.
3. Mobile payments will be widespread - for social benefit payments by governments, for remittances across
borders, and for tax and other payments by citizens. This will make financial governance every so slightly more
accountable in developing countries, and will begin to make a positive economic impact at the bottom of the
economic pyramid.

4. Health care delivery, especially in developing countries, will see some true breakthroughs with
more telemedicine projects like mobile ultrasound and other diagnostics. New business models involving medical
expertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between healthcare between rich and poor areas will flatten.

5. Elections and other forms of political expression by citizens, government oversight will be radically
different than they are today by way of mobile voting, mobiles for reporting and government accountability.

6. Environmental monitoring in the form of smart sensing devices will be part of everyday life with new forms
of scientific environmental discovery and mitigation possible.
BY NC ND
5

1. We're all value creators: value creation & exchange, collaboration, cocreation in
real-time, the next billion internet users

2. LifeFlow: wellbeing, productivity, efficiency, sustainability

3. Sense: natural interfaces, projection display, Large Quantity Information Display (LQID),
ambient vs single task driven UIs

4. Swarming: dynamic grids, ad-hoc & meshed networks, spatial data, adaptive
architecture, smart mobility & energy services

5. Morph: identities, shapes & materials, wearables, disposables, digestables

Willem Boijens
Marketing innovation & design
executive/ Principal manager at
Vodafone Group Marketing
@willemjhboijens
vodafone.com

BY NC ND
6

1. Things and services: The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will
drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal, social, visual and
manipulable representations. With all of these personal activities that can be measured or
'counted' (Nike+, Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range of
personal and public services.

2. Physical diversification: There will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices.
In many cases a connected object are no longer just 'mobile' but e-readers, cameras, music players,
and household appliances all the way up to cars, public spaces and buildings (where there is a good
reason to do so).

3. Daily data: As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our online 'data shadows' that are
created out of this data (cf. Mike Kuniavsky), this will have significant effects on everyday life and on
our sense of value in personal information. The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily life
that try to influence the 'things that can be counted'.

4. Pervasive privacy: Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities, places, relationships,
finances, health, etc. the issues around privacy will really come to a head. Not just the 'big brother'
privacy issues that will be tested through the legal system, but really sticky, complex social and
personal privacy issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf. Everyware).

5. Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased, pervasive connectivity, there must be an 'always-
on backlash' en masse. There will not just be niche communities choosing to 'opt-out', but it will
become culturally, socially necessary and desirable to be offline. The ability to gracefully disconnect and
go 'dark' must become a USP for many products and services.

Timo Arnall
Design Researcher at Oslo School
of Architecture and Design
@TimoArnall
elasticspace.com
BY NC ND
7

1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising
- and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile,
location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3
of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what
they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video.

2. Tablet devices will become the way many of us will 'read' magazines, books, newspapers and even
'attend' live concerts, conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major
device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile
augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their
mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base.

3. Many makers of simple smart phones - probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available
for free - but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the
devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs.

4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without SIM cards. The
likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi /
WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile
network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the provision of 'experiences'

5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile
phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and
flat-rates - many of them Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of consuming, and interacting
with content. First music, then books, new and magazines, then film & TV.

Gerd Leonhard
Author & Blogger, Keynote
Speaker & Strategist
@gleonhard
mediafuturist.com

BY NC ND
9

1. Web of things: an average networked pet will have a voice, generating more
data traffic than the average human

2. Digital syllogomania: digital garbage collection becomes a (very) lucrative
business

3. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on the
ability to regulate urban dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms

4. Seamful design: opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense
data clouds, their scattered intelligent services and their occasional hail of contextual
information.

5. The messiness and unpredictability of the world continue to seriously
challenge any technophilic dreams and their strategies of bordering

Fabien Girardin
Researcher at Lift lab
@fabiengirardin
liftlab.com/

BY NC ND
10

1. Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon, with much misinformed
digital ink spilt

2. The penny starts to drop with companies that Social Marketing Intelligence is
the black gold of the 21st Century

3. Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are constantly updated
to deliver better enabling services begins to transform the media industry – for example
creating highly accurate 3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database

4. Convergence enables the blending of reality from online and off so there is
no distinction

5. The communications revolution accelerates destroying businesses that refuse
to think the unthinkable

Alan Moore
Author, blogger, entrepreneur
@alansmlxl
smlxtralarge.com

BY NC ND
11

1. Still to come ‘Easy Back Up & Storage’ of Address Book, mobile content
and now Apps in case phone is lost, stolen or changed
2. Emotions and social network recommendation based mobile search
3. Mobile payment and transfer (in Europe)
4. SMS based Health & Wellness monitoring and coaching
5. ‘Green Tech’ phones and in emerging countries, self-repairable ones
6. Mobile battery performance and charging solutions
Martin Duval
CEO bluenove
@bluenove
bluenove.com

BY NC ND
12

1. Connection managers. They will become critical for
differentiation as devices will be able to handle massive
data speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds for
hours; from any available network.

2. User Interface. Mashup interfaces across voice, touch
and movement will create new experiences for getting data
into and controlling mobile devices. Open (environments)
will change the game.

3. Sensors. Mobile devices will have sensors added which
will enable the capture local data from temperature to noise
and from location to who else is in the room.

4. Business model. Based on game changes 2 and 3,
brands realize that more value is created from the analysis
of sensor data taken off the mobile devices than from user
voice or data usage analysis. Combining the two, sensor
and user data, it will be possible to generate new business
models and shareholder value.

5. Ownership of your data footprint. Every brand
wants to own you and your data. Users will become
discriminating about brands who deliver value to them and
these will be different from those who are in the mobile
retail value chain today. Trust and privacy will be at the
forefront of the user decision. www.mydigitalfootprint.com
Tony Fish
Entrepreneur & strategic thinker AMF Ventures
@TonyFish
tonyfish.com

BY NC ND
13

1. It's all about phones. 50% hardware, 50% software and services (UI, widgets, integrated
services, etc.). Apps and app stores are important (just as platforms are), but the consumer will see a
leapfrog in devices, equivalent to BW (representing today's featurephones) to colour (representing
todays' smartphones) devices shift. 2011, with smartphone being the mainstream device, to the
contrary, will be much less about devices and much more about apps and services, call the "second
wave of apps".

2. iPhone is into linear growth, Android still very slow next year, generally status quo compared
to 2009. 2011 iPhone stabilizing and very fragmented Android rapidly taking off.

3. Strong movement, lead primarily by developers (not consumers), to open
the ecosystem.
4. We will see several app successes ($10m/yr businesses built on apps) in 2010, but massive
app successes will come in 2011/12, the industry will see $100m/yr businesses built on apps

5. Certainly 2010 is the year of app stores "opening". Unfortunately there's no definition
of what is "open" (every app store calls itself open, still some reject voice/navigation, etc. apps based
on their competing business model and not on the user experience, quality or other objective
measures. But even taking to quality and other objective measures, open for GJ means that it is the
consumer decides what quality is acceptable). 2010 will certainly see all appstores being more open
than in 2009, still in general there will still be a lot of questions.

Ilja Laurs
Founder and CEO of GetJar
@getjar
getjar.com

BY NC ND
14

1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper
targeted DNA-based services (dating, finance, education, medicine, food, sports)

2. Mobile Neurotech: using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses, thoughts,
emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology

3. mHealth: using mobile sensors, bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile
health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research

4. Internet of Things: multimedia sensors in animals, objects, buildings and places that allow
being present of everything if needed, filtering will be biggest theme in this respect

5. Mobile Learning and Science: mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized
learning (a.o. DNA based) and discovery of important changes in the environment
Yuri van Geest
Co-Founder Mobile Monday Amsterdam,
Co-Organizer TEDx Amsterdam, Futurist
@vangeest
mobilemonday.nl
BY NC ND
15

1. VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer
2. The return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the
“through of disillusionment”
3. Some (rich) people will pay to be disconnected
4. Non-humans (objects, animals, places) will generate more data
than humans
5. Data Structure Service: services that allow to maintain/sort/
structure all these data will gain even more weight
Nicolas Nova
researcher
@nicolasnova
liftlab.com

BY NC ND
17

1. Augmented Reality: placing digital content literally in physical context.

2. Indoor Smartness: indoor positioning, smart environments.

3. Vendor Relationship Management: customers in control, people send out RFQ's,
includes barcode scanning, couponing, etc.

4. Contextual Information Provision: Provision of information based on LIVE
information gathered through sensory input from all elements in your context.

Don’t 5. Personal Area Networks: many hardware mutants and spinoffs.
order
eggs!
Raimo van der Klein
CEO Layar
Jean
Paul @rhymo
Sartre layar.com
sat here

reserved

buy
tickets
now!

BY NC ND
18

1. All urban areas offer free (or funded by
tax payer) Wimax connectivity, meaning that most
people don’t bother with an operator relationship any
more. Landlines are gone.

2. Mobile overtakes the PC as the largest
marketing channel, offering the best results and
tracking in the history of marketing.

3. Current handheld form factors disappear,
with interfaces being via glasses or contact lenses, a
microscopic ear piece and a device which we can
envision as a ring for the finger. Three options of
viewing will be available, Real World, Digital World and a
combination of the two ie Augmented Reality. In this
Post PC Era, laptops will be quaintly old-fashioned and
unsupported commercially.

4. Mobile product and service innovation will
be greatly influenced in the next 10 years by emerging
markets, who already live in the Post PC Era today.
Education is the first vertical to be hugely impacted.

5. People still won’t pay for Digital Content.
Russell Buckley
VP Global Alliances AdMob & Chairman
Emeritus Mobile Marketing Association
@russellbuckley
mobhappy.com

BY NC ND
19

1. Shrinking superphone reaches 10 dollar cost; better than iPhone of today. Moore's
Law brings us ever cheaper phones so cheap 'Africa' phones and kids' phones in 2020 are better than
modern top end phones of 2010, like Nokia N900, Google Nexus and Apple iPhone 3GS. Better
phones will be used at work and play, top end 'smartphones' will be embedded within humans
enhancing our vision, hearing, memory etc.

2. Mobile advertising becomes biggest ad platform. Mobile advertising grows to
become biggest ad platform exceeding TV and internet by reach and by ad revenues. Mobile ads
mature beyond banner ads and SMS spam, become ever more compelling and 'engaging'. Will not kill
off other older media like TV, print and internet, as each will adjust to the newest medium.

3. Half of total economy in many countries transits mobile phone payments.
The rapid growth of mobile banking and credit will change the payments systems of all countries.
Combined with interactive ads, mobile money will shift phone to mobile wallet with our keys and
loyalty points and identity cards. In all countries normal to get paycheck paid to phone, in many
leading m-banking countries, where traditional banking institutions are weak like in Africa, more than
half of total economy will pass through mobile phones.

4. "Star Trek Universal Translator' is commonplace. The early translator utilities of
today will evolve and by end of decade, all standard phone feature near-real time 'accurate'
translators in voice-to-voice and text-to-text (and across voice/text/voice). You point the phone at
speaker in foreign language, your earpiece hears the simultaneous translation as if UN professional
translator stood next to you.

5. Our phone becomes magical servant as concierge. The early mobile concierge
services like from Japan today evolve. As our payments and media and calendar info is integrated,
the concierge avatar on the phone adds 'secretary', 'butler', 'accountant' and 'lawyer' functions to
assist us, like Amazon today anticipates and 'reads our minds' of what book to recommend, the
phone servant avatar in 2020 will run our lives, answer our calls, send messages on behalf of us,
order goods and services, and give us reminders.

Tomi Ahonen
Author
@tomiahonen
tomiahonen.com

BY NC ND
20

1. A device as powerful as the iPhone 3GS is
today will cost less than 100 EUR by 2016 thereby
enabling a whole new economic strata rich mobile access to
the internet.

2. NFC will drastically take off and similar to how today
it's impossible to buy a mobile phone without a camera, that
point will be reached with NFC by the tail end of the next
decade.

3. Rich nations will start seeing the number of
hours people spend in front of screens decline for the
first time and the masses will limit or stop use a certain
technology or service to reconnect with the joys of
overcoming an obstacle.

4. People will pay for content again, especially
mobile content since mobile advertising takes up valuable
screen real estate, because operator billing will finally replace
the piece of plastic in your wallet.

5. Thanks to Bluetooth and wireless display
technology the mobile phone will literally be the only
computer people own.

Stefan Constantinescu
Editor, Intomobile
@GJCAG
intomobile.com

BY NC ND
21

1. Over 50% of the world’s households carry a mobile device – 3B+
(think about that, how cool is that, what will it mean for societal integration)

2. Mobile internet surpasses the wireline internet in global REACH
(more people with IP connections in mobile than PCs)

3. Mobile advertising becomes mainstream (imagine a Brand Manager
without a URL today)

4. Augmented reality and advanced LBS services become
broadscale (finally)
5. Smart Agents 2.0 (Thank you Patty Maes) become real; the
ability to deduce/impute context from blend of usage and
location data (privacy issues need to be handled of course)
Rich Wong
Partner at Accel Partners
@rich_wong
facebook.com/accel

BY NC ND
23

1. Mobile content recommendation
2. Lifestream integration with mobile contacts lists
3. Mobile data portability and data portability via mobile
4. Mobile commerce
5. Location-based social networking
Marshall Kirkpatrick
VP of Content Development & Lead Blogger
ReadWriteWeb
@marshallK
readwriteweb.com

BY NC ND
24

1. Cheaper Data plans, more Pay As You Go Data with Global Roaming-
with LTE and WiMax bundles and buckets become like minutes. Watch the
rates start to fall as the operators need more customers to support new capex
spending and as they begin to leverage already established networks.

2. The Network Becomes Paramount as Devices all become
Smarter – With WiMax, Mobile WiMax and WiFi-this means faster, better
and cheaper data, video and voice. Newer smart devices both diverged and
converged all proliferate, and will all compliment the 3G expansion plans and
4G (LTE) roll outs. Connectivity becomes ubiquitous and the idea of always
on, becomes commonplace. Without a well run network, none of this grows.

3. Mobile PBX/Nomadic Mobile Enterprise Offerings-the
largest customer market is the enterprise for mobile, yet we can’t
transfer a call after almost 30 years of calling. A mobile PBX will change all
that

4. The rise of new device brands-Nokia, Ericsson and others
had a cozy ride for years with the mobile operators. Now the rising tigers from
Asia (Asus, Garmin/Acer, Huawei, ZTE will start to encroach with better priced,
more feature rich handsets, mostly built on Android and with data at the core.
Motorola rises like a Phoenix, INQ becomes an emerging force and HTC
becomes a bigger part of the game with more operators. Unlocked handsets
become a bigger part of mix in countries where it never was a factor.

5. Google will be a trend changer doing for mobile what
Yahoo never could achieve.
Andy Abramson
CEO, Comunicano, blog author of VoIPWatch & Working Anywhere
@andyabramson
andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch
BY NC ND
25

Keyboard dimensions and screen size cease to be the primary limiting factors in
handset design as new input and display technologies free designers to radically change the
form factor of personal communication devices.

Services and content are purchased once and accessible across all devices (PC,
mobile, TV etc...) as business models start to reflect the reality of consumer value perception.

The mobile browser becomes the main applications platform.
Smarter middleware becomes essential to mediate between rapid growth in cloud-
based media storage, inherently unreliable wireless networks and a proliferation in access
devices employed by the user.

The most successful network operators will narrow their focus to the '3 Cs':
customer service, coverage and capacity, stepping away from large-scale portal, application and
media development efforts.

Marek Pawlowski
Founder, MEX Mobile User
Experience Conference
@marekpawlowski
pmn.co.uk/mex/

BY NC ND
26

1. Just as microprocessors have been built into virtually every product that has a power
source, over the next ten years, it will become expected that wireless connectivity will be built into virtually
every product that has a microprocessor.

2. Businesses will redefine virtually every internal process and virtually every service they
offer customers to leverage wireless access to information and contextual data to create new value for
customers, to grow their addressable markets, and to reduce their operating costs.

3. Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs of the market, resulting
in increasing data cord cutting as individuals, families, and businesses appreciate the value of mobility more
than the value of excess bandwidth.

4. By the end of the decade, mobile devices will be thought of first for the applications
they run rather than for their ability to make voice calls.

5. In the U.S., the Obama administration will stimulate significant expansion of the
mobile market through regulatory policies (e.g. reduced backhaul costs) and direct and indirect stimulus
investments (e.g. wireless broadband, smart grid).
Russ McGuire
VP, Strategy, Sprint Nextel
@mcguireslaw
mcguireslaw.com/

BY NC ND
27

1. The #1 trend for me for the next decade will be ubiquity: everybody will
have mobile data access. People in developing nations will get online on mobiles before
they do on PCs; and in developed nations, mobile data use will become the norm for all
users.

2. Tools that help people manage their constant connectivity will be in
great demand.
3. The mobile phone will evolve into an enabler device, carrying users'
digital identities, preferences and possessions around with them.
4. Advanced mobile phone technology will become a commodity, and
form will take precedence over function.
5. Privacy and protection of identity will create huge conflicts in many
societies.
Carlo Longino
Blogger at Mobhappy
@caaarlo
mobhappy.com

BY NC ND
28

1. Distribution of sms-equipped and then increasingly smart phones in
the developing world.
2. The use of environmental and biomedical sensors in conjunction
with mobile communication media.
3. Augmented reality.
4. Mobile Social Software.
Howard Rheingold
Author of Smart Mobs
@hrheingold
rheingold.com

BY NC ND
30

1. As phones get smarter, pipes get dumber. In the era of app stores and handset makers launching
their own Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, mobile carriers will continue to struggle with the issue of who
'owns' the customer. Terrified of becoming a dumb pipe reduced to selling commodity voice and data services,
some will try to innovate with their own SaaS products, most of which will fail, while the smartest players will
partner and invest in innovate startups. That said, as the pipes get increasingly clogged up carrying all of this data,
and with the advent of 4G, networks will start to focus on and highlight their competitiveness based on
infrastructure and capacity alone.

2. Your phone will become your doctor. Mobile phones are already the ubiquitous mobile device and,
increasingly, provide a ubiquitous Internet connection. Just like the best camera is the one that you have with you,
more and more hardware functionality, such as innovative input devices and sensors, combined with software and
a data connection will piggyback the mobile phone, rather than try to compete as a separate device. Health care
will be a major benefactor.

3. Money transfer beyond mobile banking. The mobile phone will replace your wallet. Not only will you
be able to manage your money via your mobile phone and use it to pay for products in authorized retail outlets
both online and offline, but mobile money transfer will extend to peer-to-peer. Everyone will become a walking
'cash' register.

4. Battery technology will finally catch up. The combination of new types of battery technology and less
power hungry chips will lead to mobile phones, even under the strain of all of this new hardware, software and
data functionality, being able to stay powered up for more than a day. Perhaps days. Evidenced by the recent
Netbook phenomenon, with 7+ hours becoming the norm for a low cost 10inch laptop.

5. People will share more and more personal information. Both explicit e.g. photo and video
uploads or status updates, and implicit data. Location sharing via GPS (in the background) is one current example
of implicit information that can be shared, but others include various sensory data captured automatically via the
mobile phone e.g. weather, traffic and air quality conditions, health and fitness-related data, spending habits etc.
Some of this information will be shared privately and one-to-one, some anonymously and in aggregate, and some
increasingly made public or shared with a user's wider social graph. Companies will provide incentives, both at the
service level or financially, in exchange for users sharing various personal data.
Steve O'Hear
Editor, last100 / Contributing Editor, TechCrunch Europe | @sohear | last100.com BY NC ND
31

1. Device makers will continue to drive the
mobile industry and operators will become more
traditional service providers competing on cost and
network quality.

2. Brands will use apps to drive hundreds of
millions of dollars in sales. Apps will become a
core revenue generator for businesses.

3. Location will become THE core technology
to mobile devices. It will become more ubiquitous
on the device than any other feature. nearly every user
interaction with mobile devices will become location
aware.
4. Location based advertising will explode. The
classic starbucks example will be forgotten. That starbucks
example is driven by a mindset stuck in the web - pop-up
ads, banner ads. Apps and the mobile web will be location
aware, and most mobile advertising will be informed and
targeted by location.

5. Venture capitalists will begin to make major
strategic investments in mobile app companies in
2010 (like the 2009 investments in Shazam, Smule, etc).
Big brands will acquire small apps that enhance their
product offering (eg Amazon & SnapTell)

Ted Morgan
CEO Skyhook Wireless
@tedmorgan
skyhookwireless.com
BY NC ND
32

1. Cellular voice dies -- it truly becomes another form of data on next generation data networks
2. Location awareness -- devices truly leverage location and tie together our tasks with our current
location

3. Voice recognition -- moves from niche usage to a mainstream input option

4. Connectivity lines blur -- devices and apps will seamlessly function offline nearly as well as online

5. Handhelds -- fewer laptops will be carried as more capable handheld devices will mature

Kevin C. Tofel
Managing Editor at jkOnTheRun, a GigaOM
network site covering mobile technology
@KevinCTofel
jkOnTheRun.com
BY NC ND
33

1. Convergence of virtual and physical payments: mobile payments will significantly replace
physical currency. Within this trend I predict the replication of financial services from the past, onto cloud-
based systems that can be managed by mobile devices, be they loans, savings, payments and transfers.

2. Convergence of mobile network and data services: IP technology will replace the need
for cell towers. Within this trend I predict that ISP and web based services (including Google) will inherit
the current subscribers of many mobile networks of today.

3. Convergence of utility payment: our payment for services will move away from separate
contracts from service providers, to combined solutions placing data alongside gas, electricity and water. I
predict single subscriptions to data services from commodity suppliers, supplemented with personalisation
tools that suit our precise requirements at any given moment.

4. Convergence of mobile and online platforms: the emergence of personal, unified cloud-
based platforms that are accessible from any machine and screen.

5. Convergence of physical, augmented and virtual reality: augmented and virtual reality
will become an increasingly standard method for search, discovery, gaming, eyesight, healthcare, retail,
entertainment and most other experiences in life. Location and other contextual functions will grow so
our 2D mobile experiences become 3D and 'real'. To such an extent that the prefixes 'augmented' and
'virtual' will eventually become redundant.
Jonathan MacDonald
Founder, JME
@jmacdonald
jme.net

BY NC ND
34

1. Mobiles manifesting AI - fulfilling, at last, the vision of "personal digital
assistants"
2. Powerful, easily wearable head-mounted accessories: audio, visual, and more
3. Mobiles as gateways into vivid virtual reality - present-day AR is just the
beginning
4. Mobiles monitoring personal health - the second brains of our personal
networks
5. Mobiles as universal remote controls for life - a conductor's baton as much as
a viewing portal
David Wood
Principal at Delta Wisdom
@dw2
dw2blog.com/
BY NC ND
36

01:23:51

finish line 01:23:49

Mobile Networks: Imagine mobile networks without voice services. The switch
from 3g standards into all IP network infrastructure (4g) will turn mobile operators to broadband
providers, decrease the revenues of cable companies, increase profits of voip services and spawn a new
range of mobile services, mobile apps and even mobile devices.

Mobile Internet: Internet usage through mobile devices will overtake desktop/pc usage
based on massive adaptation of mobile internet in the developing world.

Mobile Payment: the mobile is the credit card.
Mobile Entertainment: Games, Music and Movies will find new formats on mobile
devices especially through the rise of augmented reality technology. A handful of startups in this sector
will manage to attract significant audiences.

Mobile Hub: Laptop schlepping will be over cause your phone will fulfill your computing
needs. Smartphones will become as powerful as laptops and take over the laptop and notebook market.
With an increasing number of peripherals from keyboards to displays to 3d glasses the mobile will
become the power processor of your life. Don't loose it!
Michael Breidenbruecker
ceo RjDj
@byzo
BY NC ND
rjdj.me 37

1. Use cases: Phones are the primary computer and tool for connecting and sharing with
friends (= more email or messages initiated from mobile phones to friends (not work) than from
computer or netbooks)

2. Network: Wifi deployed widely (everywhere: at home, in restaurants, in the street, etc.)

3. Platforms: consolidation of platforms, may be only 2 or 3 gather 80% of
units shipped
4. Hardware: significant advance in batteries
Henri Moissinac
head of mobile, Facebook
@moissinac
facebook.com

BY NC ND
38

1. The Operator Dichotomy: Mobile operators will clearly
separate into service companies (service pipes) and access
companies (bit pipes). Very few multi-nationals will control assets to
both services and access.

2. OEMs as the service inventory brokers: Handset OEMs
will move to exploit one of their few unique strengths; service
distribution inventory on-device and therefore monetise from retailing
and managing services at point-of-purchase and during in-life use.

3. Application Mega-retailing: Retailing and merchandising of
mobile apps will evolve in terms of segmentation, regionalisation and
sophistication, and far more so than mobile phone retailing. A large
chunk of the money in apps will go towards distribution and retailing,
much like the book business is today.

4. Service Analytics: The Most Underhyped opportunity.
Comprehensive analytics on devices, services, networks and users
will create major new revenue streams; from monetising competitive
intelligence to spawning new revenue models such as OEMs being
paid based on device performance.

5. Open Source Economics Mastered: Multi-billion firms will
realise that 'influence is power' in the world of open source and will
either acquire the small 10-strong professional services firms or re-
orient their business culture towards upstream tribes, rather than
downstream troops.
Andreas Constantinou
Ph.D., Research Director, VisionMobile
@andreascon
visionmobile.com/blog

BY NC ND
39

1. The mobile lifestyle truly goes beyond "carrying a mobile handset all the time". The next decade will see
the first true always-on/connected generation - "99% messaging, media and entertainment, 1% voice"-kind of mobile users. Mobile
usage drivers are as follows: 1) (people-to-people) messaging, very media and social in nature including text, MMS, real-time web and
social networks, 2) media – photos, video and music, gaming, 3) info/search or queries, 4) voice. Voice usage will be very minimal
when compared to messaging, and messaging and media go hand-in-hand with media usage driven by personal messaging.
2. Control totally shifts from the MNO and into the ecosystem. MNOs become a positive member of and contributor
to the ecosystem and the developer community. The MNO extends and offers their mobile/wireless infrastructure as services on the
Internet (Infrastructure as a Services).
3. Wireless networks reaches sufficient speeds and efficiencies that minimizes and almost eliminate most of the
connection latencies that currently degrades the mobile web usage experience, resulting in an increased positive perception of mobile
web and allowing for mobile web applications that complement and/or rival local/native mobile apps. HSPA+ becomes the predominant
type of wireless network during the first half of the decade with LTE on the later part. Data plans go from unlimited pricing, to handset-
specific (attempt to maximize revenue) pricing and tiered-pricing (to force users to use less data), back to unlimited (once networks
become more efficient).
4. Distribution is 80% Smart-phones and 20% Feature-phones, worldwide. Feature-phones have 80% of
Smart-phone characteristics. Even in emerging regions such as Africa the business models is figured out to allow for "data" to take off;
but it will take to the end of the decade for this. Most device manufacturers trying to copy Apple introduce their own OSes only to fail
and instead go with Android due to economics - by leveraging Google's R&D and BOM, are able to deliver a complete platform from OS,
developer and ecosystem support in the most cost-effective way. Fragmentation problem continues from apps to web but reduced to a
small number of platforms. Java ME focuses on Feature-phones. HTML and scripting with the browser/web-runtimes and handset APIs
evolve and get standardized allowing for web applications that when combined with fast networks truly rival and/or complement local/
native applications. App Stores offer both local/native and mobile web apps. There are many App Stores which are easily discovered
and selected by users – which app store to use becomes a user-preference/choice.
5. Messaging becomes the top application. Search/queries and apps in general benefit from the digital and physical worlds
merging together, thanks to the mobile handset; awareness of our surroundings via proximity and other sensors such as geo-location
allows for high-definition user-context. Super-imposition of information on top of real word imagery (Augmented Reality) and
interactions with physical objects via the handset (to learn more about such objects) becomes a common tool and exercise. AR
becomes standardized and absorbed into the web browser as a View, similar to today's "street vs. map view". We start to see the initial
phase of the 5th screen, "visors" that work together with the mobile handset extending digital augmentation from the handset screen
(the 4th screen) onto "eye-glasses" (the 5th screen). The handset is the personal gateway, between personal sensors and services and
applications and to the Internet. The hybrid application (80% local driving richness and experience and 20% generic/related web-based
information) becomes the standard mobile app design pattern.

C. Enrique Ortiz
Mobile Technologist, blogger | @eortiz | cenriqueortiz.com
BY NC ND
40

1. 5x more sensors in everyday life;
combination of wearable sensors, remote
sensors and sensors in your phone
2. Operators build and market their own
mobile devices competing with OEMs
3. Wireless charging becomes the standard
and is available everywhere
4. Your super-modular mobile phone will be
powered by a cloud based OS
5. You will travel to go to a no-airwaves
National Park; the first cellular reserve
Raj Singh
Mobile Enthusiast
@raazzzin
rajansingh.com

BY NC ND
42

1. Web4 Metadata for All Data: Mobile transforms the Web into Web4: billions of mobile devices as sensors in a sensor
network connect the Web to real people (Who), places (Where), objects (What), and times (When), analyzable into vectors of
attention, interests, activities, and events. The masses of global data are no longer abstract bits in databases, but are made intelligible
with real world metadata about the contexts in which they are produced, shared, consumed, and transformed.
2. MyWorld/OurWorld/TheirWorld: Web4 transforms our relationship to the world, each other, and ourselves. As every
physical entity (person, place, object) becomes connected and programmable, and every digital entity is contextualized and can
communicate with the real world, the now visible and permanent accretions of human attention and activity transform how we
communicate with each other and understand the world around us. We see the datasphere mapped onto the world, and the world as
it exists in the Web, from our own personalized point of view, from that of our friends and those we follow, and from the vantage
point of others we do not know, and at scales from personal, to social, to global. The mobile phone is a prosthetic connecting us to
our collective embodied intelligence in real time and across time and space: large scale information filtering, summarization, discovery,
and recommendation become basic modes of engagement with ourselves, each other, and the world.
3. Mobile Transforms Global Business: Commerce is transformed as every place, object, person, and process is embedded
in Web4. Mobile commerce becomes long tail, real time, and real world on a global scale. Location-awareness, mobile social networks,
mobile transactions, and the Internet of Things bring about a new industrial revolution. Business processes are reengineered as mobile
sensing, communication, and processing make supply and the organization of labor and markets real time, contextual, and adaptive.
Human, computational, and physical resources can be assembled and integrated in real time to solve problems and create value:
context-aware mobile sensors/effectors, crowdsourcing, smart mobs, and chains social networks are seen as the new drivers of value
production.
4. The World Sees and Hears Itself: The Web and we get eyes and ears at global scale: billions of mobile phones with
sensors and HD and 3D imaging, audio, and video combined with large scale real time filtering, communication, and recommendation
technology transform news, entertainment, communication, education, work, and play. We create and use collective maps of human
attention, interest, and activity in real time mapped to an ever-evolving 4 dimensional model of the world: “the Web of the World”.
Billions of mobile media datastreams indexed and correlated with Web4 metadata show us and connect us to what is happening, has
happened, and may happen all over the world.
5. User Data Banking: If user data is the currency of the information economy, then where are the banks? By 2020, mobile data
and transactions connected to Web4 metadata create massive new value by radically transforming our ability to understand where and
when who is interested in what. Given regulatory and societal pressures, the ownership and control of user data is placed in our
hands. We gain control of what we make and do online and in the world. New legal and technical structures change the terms of
service for the mobile ecosystem bringing about a range of new value creation and services based on the ownership, control,
aggregation, and exchange of personal data (e.g., searches, interests, location, communications, social media, transactions, health
data, etc.) by users and trusted intermediaries.

Marc Davis
Chief Scientist and Co-Founder, Invention Arts | @marcedavis | inventionarts.com
BY NC ND
43

1. Unofficial currencies gain power.
2. Login will replace SIM cards.
3. Some nations will grant its people
the right to a cellphone.
4. Appearance of a massively
destructive synchronized mobile
virus.
5. North Korea will join the Web.
David Harper
Co-founder & CEO, PercentMobile
@davidharper
percentmobile.com

BY NC ND
44

1. mobile web traffic surpasses desktop
web traffic
2. mobile apps revenue surpasses desktop
apps revenue
3. augmented reality becomes standard
4. no more mobile screen it becomes
contact lenses, embedded in reading/
sunglasses or projected on walls and
objects
5. we finally solve the battery life issue
and mobiles can stay up for a week of
intense use
Loic Le Meur
Founder & CEO of Seesmic / Founder of
LeWeb.net conference / blogger
@loic
seesmic.com

BY NC ND
45

1. Smart grids
2. Tradeoff of mobile information vs privacy vs services
3. Innovation from emerging markets
4. 3D content driven by movies like avatar
5. 'open' including net neutrality
Ajit Jaokar
founder futuretext
@AjitJaokar
futuretext.com

BY NC ND
47

1. Mobiles and Netbooks begin their world domination path as browser-
driven apparatuses
2. Home apps like tv programming and other wired appliances are operated
from mobiles in big scale
3. Android takes over iPhone as its cloud features embrace social web better
than apple
4. Mobile advertising revenues dent internet ad revenues by end of year. It
is a business very much rolling out.
5. U.S. mobile startups attempt conquering mother mobile homeland,
europe.
Inma Martinez
entrepreneur, investor, strategist
@inma_martinez
stradbrokeadvisors.com

BY NC ND
48

1. Ubiquity of mobile broadband will lead
to an explosion of connected devices (à la
Kindle, not just phones) and M2M services (machines
to machine services, without a human behind the
device). In 10 year, more devices/machines
connected to the mobile network than humans

2. Truly context aware mobile computing,
where the context is far richer than just location and
personalization and recommendations are ubiquitous

3. Convergence of desktop and mobile
web into one web, everything moving to the
cloud and the end of native mobile applications and
applications stores

4. Explosion of mobile video applications
including mobile video communications
5. Augmented reality and mixed reality
services/applications: pervasive services that
seamlessly combine the physical and digital World

Carlos Domingo
Director of Internet and Multimedia & Director
of the Barcelona R&D center at Telefonica
@carlosdomingo
unpocodetodo.com

BY NC ND
49

Micro Manage. Micro-payments and proximity-based bartering replace traditional revenue streams.

Beyond Barcoding. RFID and embedded personal tagging bring big brother home.

Observe, Conserve. Devices track and manage energy and consumption using home automation and
personal tracking.

A Mass-ing Data: Personal devices sense and report real-time services from emotion to temperature, shopping
and more.

i Synch, therefore I am: Human synching to self allows any device within proximity to automatically
personalize.

Objective: Object-oriented "personal packets" of data become the norm as identity and privacy are the #1
focus.

Kelly Goto
Principal Gotomedia
@go2girl
gotomedia.com

BY NC ND
50

1. A Web OS based hackable phone will give you access to everything using Web Tech - The
Palm Pre has been the Grandfather. Look for the release of the OVI Apps SDK to be released this year.

2. 3D Displays - It´s SciFi, it´s happening and you won´t look like an idiot wearing your 3D
glasses watching Avatar.

3. The Cloud moves to the edge. Not every media item that is produced on the phone can and
will be pushed back to the cloud but instead stays on your or somebody else's phone´s Terabyte HDD.

4. Mobile Payment. It´s coming and it´s coming hard. Think mobile2mobile payment.
Paypal for your mobile phone.

5. Connected phones packed with sensors and crunching power will disrupt all kinds of
sensor-based business models - Think Weather Prediction, Traffic probing, Pollution sensing, etc. pp.
Felix Petersen
Head of Social Activities PM at Nokia / Founder at Plazes.com
@fiahless
plazes.com
BY NC ND
51

1. App Stores will start to support
applications for Embedded Devices -
In 2010 we will see the emergence of
applications for set-top boxes, netbooks,
refrigerators, car navigation systems etc.
Selected app stores will support these
applications.

2. Decline of Native App Store
Development - By 2011 native application
development for app stores will start losing
importance.

3. Carriers & Data - By 2013 the market of
consumers willing to pay "more" for mobile
internet data plans will reach saturation.

4. Mobile & Gaming - By 2014 browser-based
gaming on embedded devices - including mobile -
will have displaced much of the current console
market in the Western World.

5. Mobile & TV/Home Entertainment -
By 2016 browser-based entertainment/TV
devices - relying on search - will have displaced
television as the focal living room device in most
of the Western World.
Matthaus Krzykowski
Editor, VentureBeat
@matthausk
BY NC ND
venturebeat.com 53

More fluid use of input mechanisms beyond the keyboard. We're seeing this right
now with Google Goggles, Voice Search, AR (which is about location+bearing+camera), but what about
proximity, use of ambient sound, time-of-day, etc?

Mobile as prime means of access online. Mind you I said this 10 years ago.

Improved power distribution: boring but necessary, battery technology needs to get much
better to support more capable devices, or we'll start to see new ways to power handsets.

Bandwidth gets higher; who knows what we'll do with it, but it'll happen.

Lots of second-order effects of mobile on society. No-one predicted the loosening of
time and space that Mimi Ito has noted. Similarly, what happens to our social arrangements when every
photo can be face-recognised, geolocated and individuals tracked? What happens to shops when every
price can be compared? What happens to conversation when it's all recorded, or any fact is a 5-second
voice-search away from being checked?

Tom Hume
Managing Director of Future Platforms
@twhume
tomhume.org/

BY NC ND
54

1. Visual search - point your mobile
phone camera and retrieve contextual
information anywhere of anything

2. New sonic experiences -
Augmented reality, 3D sound, will create
new mobile audio formats and end user
experiences

3. Mobile social networks - social
media designed specifically for mobile use

4. Mobile reception in airplanes will
allow not just voice but will be the in-flight
Internet access solution

5. Convergence and integration -
ISP's, fixed line providers, and mobile
operators offering convergence packages,
integrated pricing structures, and reformed
roaming fee regimes

Atau Tanaka
Director of Culture Lab
@atautanaka
ataut.net

BY NC ND
55

1. Mobile Augmented Reality (via wearable displays)
2. Ubiquitous Computing (everything wired)
3. Artificial Life + Intelligent Agents (holographic personalities)
4. Personal Biometric Sensors (cyborg 101)
5. Patent, Privacy, and Property Wars (system breakdown)
Robert Rice
CEO Neogence Enterprises
@robertrice
curiousraven.com

BY NC ND
56

Wow - time to take a deep breath -
and get involved!

Take a look at some of the
concepts we found striking...

...is this where we
want to go?
join the conversation: #m2020

BY NC ND
58

take a look yourself!
3D connected objects health monitoring mobile social development real-time cocreation

3D content connection managers HSPA+ / LTE mobile social networks rise of new device brands
context aware mobile computing indoor smartness mobile social software
3D displays sense networks
contextual information provision in-flight internet access
3D sound mobile wallet service analytics
contvertising (content infrastructure a as Services
advanced batteries advertising) more mobile IP than PC service bundling
innovation in developing
all IP network infrastructure convergence of mobile network morph service pipes
countries
and data services
ambient intelligence multiple dynamic data smart agents 2.0
convergence of utility payment intelligent agents
android rules nano smart grids
cross-platform services internet of things
app convergence networked urbanism smart phones everywhere
data footprint ownership lifeflow

application mega-retailing location based advertising new business models smart pipes
data shadows
data structure services location-aware objects new input & display technologies
apps smarter middleware
Decline of Native App Store location-awareness tasks next 3 billion
apps & services social marketing intelligence
Development location-based social networking nomadic enterprises
apps everywhere software-as-a-service (SaaS)
digital syllogomania mainstream mobile advertising non-human data
apps for embedded devices swarm
disconnectivity mashup interfaces
oneweb
artificial intelligence documented radiation & brain messaging rules tablet devices
damage open ecosystem
artificial life mixed reality terabyte HDD
driving locks open source business models
augmented reality mobile advertising goes truely connected users
embedded devices (TV/gaming patent, privacy, and property
mainstream
back-up & storage consoles) wars (system breakdown) tv apps (remote control)

bluetooth implants emotional recommendations mobile browser rules ubiquitous connectivity
personal area networks
enabling new economy mobile commerce
browser-based entertainment personal biometric sensors universal remote control

browser-based gaming environmental monitoring mobile contacts lifestream vendor relationship management
pervasive computing
integration
explosion of mobile video apps
business disruption pervasive privacy visual search
free devices mobile content recommendation
bye bye CDMA platform consolidation voice recognition
free networks mobile data portability
challenging technophilic dreams premium content voip
google mobile elections
cheaper data green phones mobile information tradeoff primary computer wifi deployment

complex data sharing hackable devices mobile political campaign privacy & protection conflicts

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Tomi Ahonen / image by Lycaon / http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rosetta_Stone.JPG

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special thanks to steffen becker for the visualisation

thanks to all who contributed to this document, may your wisdom spread as fast as light!

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