This document summarizes an analyst's views on the state of the mobile advertising industry in March 2009. It notes that while mobile advertising has potential due to personal and location-aware devices, the industry is fragmented with many players and formats. It also discusses opportunities in targeting consumers based on inferred profiles and behavioral data, and predicts emerging markets and real-time search will be important future trends.

1. Mobile Advertising
as seen by
‘The Analyst’
March 16, 2009
Julien Theys
Monday, March 16, 2009

2. We cover Media
• Cinema
• Video
• TV
• Games
• Broadband
• ... and Mobile
Monday, March 16, 2009

3. ‘The Analyst’
Monday, March 16, 2009

4. You already know this
Monday, March 16, 2009

5. You already know this
More mobiles than PCs
Personal
Always-on
Targeted / Relevant
Location-aware
One day it will get bigger than online
(the Google guy said so)
Mobile advertising is amazing
Monday, March 16, 2009

6. But it’s one big mess...
Monday, March 16, 2009

7. Monday, March 16, 2009

8. Monday, March 16, 2009

9. Push Please
Banners Editorial Alerts Games Video Online Print
MMS call me
Monday, March 16, 2009

10. Mobile Media Advertising
Monday, March 16, 2009

11. Mobile Media Advertising
Mobile
Monday, March 16, 2009

12. Mobile Media Advertising
Mobile
Content
Premium
Monday, March 16, 2009

13. Mobile Media Advertising
Mobile
Content Advertising
Premium Display Search
Monday, March 16, 2009

14. Mobile Media Advertising
Mobile
Content Advertising
Ad-supported
Premium Display Search
content
Monday, March 16, 2009

15. Ad-supported
content
Worldwide Mobile Media Advertising Market (€m)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Monday, March 16, 2009

16. Ad-supported
content
European Mobile Media Advertising Market (€m)
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TV VoD
Monday, March 16, 2009

17. Mobile TV advertising
81% of Europe’s mobile content
advertising market by 2012
Metrics needed
Spectrum
Competing standards
DVB-T chipsets
Mobile TV in search for a revenue
model
Monday, March 16, 2009

18. Worldwide Mobile TV Market (€m)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Subscription Revenue Ad Market
Monday, March 16, 2009

19. One drop in the ocean
2012 European TV advertising market
1%
TV advertising
Mobile TV advertising
99%
Monday, March 16, 2009

20. Games & apps
Monday, March 16, 2009

21. Games & apps
Games enjoy a longer life
Monday, March 16, 2009

22. Games & apps
Games enjoy a longer life
Advertising remains a marginal
revenue stream
Monday, March 16, 2009

23. Games & apps
Games enjoy a longer life
Advertising remains a marginal
revenue stream
Higher engagement with paid apps
Monday, March 16, 2009

24. Games & apps
Games enjoy a longer life
Advertising remains a marginal
revenue stream
Higher engagement with paid apps
Too few sessions, too low CPMs
Assuming the volume of ads is
tolerable
Monday, March 16, 2009

25. Games & apps
Games enjoy a longer life
Advertising remains a marginal
revenue stream
Higher engagement with paid apps
Too few sessions, too low CPMs
Assuming the volume of ads is
tolerable
But some apps are the ad
No direct revenue
Monday, March 16, 2009

26. And the
operator ?
Monday, March 16, 2009

27. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Monday, March 16, 2009

28. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Brands Media buyers Sales Serving Operators
Monday, March 16, 2009

29. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Brands Media buyers Sales Serving Operators
Trust
Monday, March 16, 2009

30. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Brands Media buyers Sales Serving Operators
Trust
Customer data
Monday, March 16, 2009

31. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Brands Media buyers Sales Serving Operators
Trust
Customer data
Core competencies
Monday, March 16, 2009

32. Towards a ‘Smart pipe’ ?
Brands Media buyers Sales Serving Operators
Trust
Customer data
Core competencies
A media company or an access provider?
Monday, March 16, 2009

33. Opportunities in targeting
Monday, March 16, 2009

34. Opportunities in targeting
Profile Profile
Basic Context Behavioral Dynamic
(submitted) (inferred)
Monday, March 16, 2009

35. Opportunities in targeting
Profile Profile
Basic Context Behavioral Dynamic
(submitted) (inferred)
Given
Monday, March 16, 2009

36. Opportunities in targeting
Profile Profile
Basic Context Behavioral Dynamic
(submitted) (inferred)
Given OK
Monday, March 16, 2009

37. Opportunities in targeting
Profile Profile
Basic Context Behavioral Dynamic
(submitted) (inferred)
Given OK Delicate
Monday, March 16, 2009

38. Opportunities in targeting
Profile Profile
Basic Context Behavioral Dynamic
(submitted) (inferred)
Given OK Delicate
Being the ideal candidate on the technical front
doesn’t mean it will be tolerated
Monday, March 16, 2009

39. Entering a
platform play
And yet the mobile OS is
not the cash cow
Monday, March 16, 2009

40. There is no such thing * or every phone is a Google phone
as a Google phone
Monday, March 16, 2009

41. Worldwide Quarterly Smartphone shipments by OS (m)
50
40
30
20
10
0
02Q2 02Q4 03Q2 03Q4 04Q2 04Q4 05Q2 05Q4 06Q2 06Q4 07Q2 07Q4 08Q2 08Q4
Symbian Windows Mobile Blackberry Mac OSX iPhone
Palm Android Other Linux'
Monday, March 16, 2009

42. Experience matters
Monday, March 16, 2009

43. Experience matters
iTunes: days to 200m downloads
Videos
Songs
iPhone Apps
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Monday, March 16, 2009

44. Experience matters
iTunes: days to 200m downloads
Videos
Songs
iPhone Apps
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Monday, March 16, 2009

45. Experience matters
iTunes: days to 200m downloads
Videos
Songs
iPhone Apps
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Monday, March 16, 2009

46. Experience matters
iTunes: days to 200m downloads
Videos
Songs
iPhone Apps
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Monday, March 16, 2009

47. The end of a funding cycle
Monday, March 16, 2009

48. Mobile VC funding deals
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
Advertising Total funding deals
Monday, March 16, 2009

49. Mobile VC funding volume (€m)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
Advertising Total funding volume
Monday, March 16, 2009

50. Mobile M&A deals
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
Advertising Total M&A deals
Monday, March 16, 2009

51. Over-hyped concepts will be hit
the hardest
Monday, March 16, 2009

52. Over-hyped concepts will be hit
the hardest
Low barriers to entry
User-generated content
Location-based services
Monday, March 16, 2009

53. Over-hyped concepts will be hit
the hardest
Low barriers to entry
User-generated content
Location-based services
Failure to replicate
App stores
Monday, March 16, 2009

54. Over-hyped concepts will be hit
the hardest
Low barriers to entry
User-generated content
Location-based services
Failure to replicate
App stores
Lack of IP
Mobile social networks
Monday, March 16, 2009

55. Clash of the titans
Monday, March 16, 2009

56. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

57. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

58. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

59. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

60. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

61. Clash of the titans
Hardware Danger Nokia
OS Android Windows Symbian
Search Google OneSearch Live Search AOL
Ad unit
Mail, maps,
Services Mail, maps MSN AOL OVI
YouTube
Monday, March 16, 2009

62. Vying for search
Monday, March 16, 2009

63. Vying for search
US search deals
Operator Search Provider Subscribers (m)
84
77
49
33
Monday, March 16, 2009

64. Forward-looking trends
Monday, March 16, 2009

65. Forward-looking trends
Emerging markets to lead the way
Culture
Regulation
Primary connection
Monday, March 16, 2009

66. Forward-looking trends
Emerging markets to lead the way
Culture
Regulation
Primary connection
The social network becomes the
address book
Monday, March 16, 2009

67. Forward-looking trends
Emerging markets to lead the way
Culture
Regulation
Primary connection
The social network becomes the
address book
Search becomes real time
Monday, March 16, 2009

68. Forward-looking trends
Emerging markets to lead the way
Culture
Regulation
Primary connection
The social network becomes the
address book
Search becomes real time
Operators monetise market research
Monday, March 16, 2009

69. Please contact me
Thanks julien.theys@screendigest.com
www.screendigest.com
Monday, March 16, 2009