Tourism is a volatile industry that is constantly changing and sensitive to events both within and outside a country. Disasters, recessions, political conflicts, and disease outbreaks can all cause fluctuations or decreases in tourism. Disasters particularly pose risks to tourist safety and infrastructure, while recessions decrease consumer spending and willingness to travel. These factors negatively impact individuals' livelihoods and countries' economies by reducing tourism revenue and GDP.

1. Tourism(is(a(volatile((liable'to'
change'rapidly'&'unpredictably)'
industry(which(is(
constantly(changing.((
This(means(that(the(
industry(may(experience(
changes(in(tourist((
numbers(and(receipts(
according(to((
regional(fluctuations.((
Rapid(changes(in(a(region’s(
situation(or(condition.(
Tourism(is(very(sensitive(to(the(events(that(
affect(tourist(destinations(within(and(
outside(the(country;(it(will(fluctuate((vary)(
accordingly(to(these(regional(events.(
Events(that(cause(great(damage(to(properties(/(
lead(to(injuries(/(cause(great(loss(of(life.(
Disasters(pose(
great(risks(to(the(
safety(of(tourists(
&(may(disrupt(
essential(tourist(
infrastructure.(
Eg.(a(severe(earthquake(
experienced(by(Japan((Tohoku)(
in(2011(caused(international(
tourist(arrivals(to(decrease(
sharply(in(the(month(that(the(
earthquake(occurred((ie.(Mar).(
This(can(discourage(
tourists(from(visiting((
a(destination.(
Disasters(can(also(
discourage(the(citizens(
of(the(disaster(affected(
country(from(travelling(
overseas.(
Eg.(due(to(the(2011(Japan(
Tohoku(earthquake,(South(
Korea’s(tourist(arrivals(
from(Japan(dipped((Japan(
is(S(Korea’s(largest(source(
of(tourist(arrivals)(
This(has(an(implication(of(S(
Korea’s(economy((ie.(GDP)(
and(people’s(livelihoods((ie.(
jobs(&(incomes)(
Disasters(affect(the(
tourism(of(nearby(
countries,(mainly(
through(the(lost(income(
from(Japanese(tourists.(
Why$tourism$fluctuates$
A(recession(is(a(period(of(
general(slowdown(in(
economic(activities.(
During(a(recession,(many(people(may(experience(
a(loss(of(income(/(face(unemployment.(
This(decrease(in(income(causes(
people(to(cut(back(on(spending.(
This(causes(a(decline(in(the(
demand(for(goods(&(services.(
People(are(less(likely(to(
travel(overseas(too.(
This(results((
in(fewer(
international(
tourists.(
Regional$&$global$recessions$
Recessions(can(be(caused(by(sharp(
increases(in(the(price(of(goods(&(
services(/(problems(in(the(financial(
markets(/(decline(in(exports.(
The(global(economic(crisis(led(to(
the(drop(in(foreign(travellers(to(
France,(as(many(travellers(
decided(to(spend(their(holidays(in(
their(own(countries(instead.(
Eg.(Britons(reduced(their(
European(trips(by(10%(((
!(tourist(destinations((
(eg.(beaches(in(Spain(
became(emptier(than(usual)(
Disasters$
Regional)recession) Global)recession)
The$recession$only$affects$only$a$
region$/$group$of$countries$(eg$ASEAN)$
The$recession$affects$many$
countries$around$the$world$
Eg.$2010$European$Sovereign$Debt$
Crisis$$
Eg.$2007G2008$
Global$Financial$Crisis$
• International(visitors(
were(staying(for(
shorter(lengths(of(time(
• Spending(less(per(day(
• Searching(for(cheaper(
accommodation(
• People(choose(to(have(
a(holiday(in(their(own(
country((rather(than(
travel(abroad)(
While(there(is(a(decrease(in(international(
tourism,(there(is(a(rise(in(domestic(tourism(
(as(it(becomes(the(more(affordable(option)(
Political(conflicts(refer(to(
a(state(of(disagreement(
between(different(
groups(of(people(that(
may(result(in(wars.((
This(can(pose(dangers(to(
both(tourists(&(residents.((
During(political(conflicts,(
(services(may(be(disrupted(
&(infrastructure(may(be(
damaged(
As(a(result,(tourists(
may(decide(to(
postpone/cancel(
their(travel(plans.(
Government(authorities(may(
issue(travel(advisories(to(
discourage(citizens(from(
travelling(to(a(particular((
region/country.(
When(places(experience(
unfavourable(political(
conditions,(they(need(to(
rebuild(their(reputation(
through(promotions,(new(
infrastructure(&(improved(
tourist(conditions.(
This(affects(the(tourist(revenue(&(employment(
opportunities(of(the(destination(country.(
Eg.(Bali(managed(to(
rebuild(its(reputation(as(
an(attractive(tourist(spot(
after(terrorist(attacks(in(
2002(&(2005.(
Outbreak(of(diseases(refer(to(the(sudden(and(
widespread(occurrence(of(diseases(in(an(area.(
R.U.D.O&
Decrease$tourism$arrivals$in$a$country$
Individual)level:)) Na5onal)level:))
affects$people’s$livelihoods$$
(jobs$&$incomes)$
affects$country’s$economy$
(tourism$revenue,$GDP)$
Unfavorable$political$situations$
Factors&that&cause&
fluctuations&(or&decrease)&
in&tourism&
• Can(cause(a(huge(dip(
in(tourist(arrivals(to(
the(disease]stricken(
country(because(
tourist(do(not(want((
to(risk(getting((
infected(with(a(
contagious(disease.(
• Can(cause((
businesses(to((
decline(
• Can(cause(MICE(
activities(to(be(
postponed/cancelled(
• Can(cause(hotel(
occupancy(to(drop(
Eg.(2003(SARS(caused(visitor(arrivals(to(
decrease(nearly(70%(for(most(of(April.((
Govt(authorities(had(to(launch(campaign((
(‘Step(Out!(SG!’)(to(revive(tourism(industry.(
If'tourists'get'infected,'they'will'return'
to'their'home'country'and'possibly'
spread'it'to'their'countrymen.'The'
disease'will'then'spread'&'affect'many'
other'countries,'esp'given'how'tourists'
originate'from'may'different'countries.'
What$is$regional$
fluctuation?$
Outbreak$$
of$
diseases$
Impacts&