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Millennium Project Planning Committee
Real-Time Delphi 2016
Day 2 (July 22)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Reduce organized religions power
Reduce nuclear proliferation
US-China long-range goal
Increase human intelligence and wisdom
Non-military methods for dealing with organized extremists
SMAC and Big Data
Strategy Scenarios 2030 to Counter TOC
Cyberterrorism reduction
“Black Swan” search
Public role in reducing SIMAD threat
Ideas to reduce urban traffic
New forms of governance in a multi-polar social media world
Smart Cities of the Future
Variables that indicate well-being, etc.
National and global anti-corruption strategies
Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events
Global Demography 2050: Strategic Implications
Future of Anticipatory Governance
The future of work
Global Futures Research Priorities (2014-15)
MP Priorities (in addition to work/tech)
Stop new research and focus on re-establishing
a more sustainable financial future for MP:
• Resume corporate sponsorship briefings; write proposals; enter contests; encourage Nodes’ to
promote sales of GFIS, SOF reports, FRM, and Futures, and create a fund-raising kit that all Node
Chairs and Node Members can use.
• Yes fundraise, but self-defeating to stop new research; don’t turn into a consulting company to
support growth
• It is not suitable that the Nodes benefit, but see little responsibility for funding MP.
• Use MP martial to address the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals
• Teams of Nodes of similar backgrounds to respond to research calls – request for proposals
• Promote GFIS rather than side-actions
• Re-package MP work (year 3000 scenarios, etc.) as series of publications (use lulu.com, create-
space)
• Create a dedicated team, workshop, and business plan
• Produce MP conferences for income, dissemination, and public relations.
• Short videos of key people showing benefits of using MP materials
Create On-line Courses on Global
Futures Concepts and Methods
• MOOCs should be the creation of Nodes, with MP providing input
• A source of funds for both Nodes and MP in general
• Needs dedicated autonomous unit and offer MP certificate if standards met
• Be more creative that the AZ course, state-of-the-art learning systems
• Team with a university, MOOC platform (Coursera, UDACITY), and/or other
advanced learning systems
• Both local Node courses and central/international MP courses
• Record courses and offer for sale
• World Bank Institute’s MOOCs on Conflict, Fragility and Violence is brilliantly
organized, with video lectures, presentations, case studies.
Conduct GFIS training programs
• Monthly sessions for MP and subscribers, but two times for global time differences
and record for later on-demand use
• Just announce a time and a date and do it
• Node Chairs and Members trained first, then they train others
• GFIS is intuitive and generally user friendly, focus on getting people to use it.
• Teaching-by-doing, e.g., how the xx aspect of the GFIS affects your region?
• Useful for checking understandings
• We need part-time top JavaScript writer to keep in evolving
• Put in YouTube – on-demand training – YouTube video GFIS for Dummies
• Make it one of the MP Online courses
• Engage each others’ scanning systems, GFIS advantage is geographic diversity
Upgrade National Foresight Capacities
1) National SOFI, 2) President/Prime Minister's future strategy units, 3) national State
of the Future (SOF) reports, 4) national collective intelligence systems, 5) tele-nation
platform, 6) permanent parliamentary Committees on the Future, 7) in-person and
tele-university courses)
• Why haven’t we been more successful at this? (Leon Fuerth’s Anticipatory
Governance story) https://www.gwu.edu/~igis/assets/docs/working_papers/Anticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf
• Video of the benefits of GFIS, SOF, SOFI, FRM, futures courses
• Create Generic proposal Node chairs can adopt to their country
• Focus on Parliaments like Finland
• Integrate national government and political representatives within Nodes
Conduct online weekly or monthly separate video conferences for
each of the 15 Global Challenges, different topics, and/or monthly
review of scanning items added in GFIS.
• Video engages more people than print
• Individual Node Chairs can initiate (without an immense pile of emails) using GFIS Hangout
• Top names in each Challenge leads relevant challenge (GFIS Reviewers per Challenge)
• Identify chair for each Challenge who initiates video conferences
• A different Challenge each month – engage universities
• Make short videos on each challenge, MP YouTube, use webinar platform, use different
languages
• Video conference on a suddenly emerging globally or regionally important problem, like BREXIT
• Region video conferences a well (RIBR and FEN?)
• Coordinate with Node Chairs
• Node Chairs select most important scanning items for monthly discussion/report on implications
(new product?)
• Record GFIS training video
In Addition to (2014-15) 19 Suggestions
The top rated priority was the Future of Work, which is already ongoing.
Among the other top-rated priorities, pending funding were: Future of Anticipatory Governance; Global
Demography 2050: Strategic Implications; Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events;
national and global anti-corruption strategies; variables that indicate well-being, and Smart Cities of
the Future. However, over the past year, new more important research priorities may have come to
mind:
• Make a special book of the three future Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios
• Continue to work on an Integrated Global Set of High Impact Strategies
• Publish some of the research as books with new distribution channels like FastFuture Publishing;
local/national implications of previous global futures research.
• New Paradigm of Economic Theory; New Economic Models; Futures Consciousness
• Alignment of MP’s 15 Global Challenges with UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
• 2050 futures of international security and hybrid security (physical, digital and virtual)
• Implications for health of advances in digital technology.
• Next Steps for Humanity; construct 4 scenarios for sustainable future by 2050
Elements for creating future (5 to 10 year)
directions for The Millennium Project
What accomplishments are the most important?
1. State of the Future reports 4.42
2. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 4.34
3. State of the Future Index 4.28
4. Evolution of the Real-Time Delphi 4.28
5. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.19
6. Demonstrating that global futures research is possible 4.09
7. Establishment of and synergies among network of Nodes 3.93
8. Production of Futures Research Methodology (FRM 1.0-3.0) 3.90
9. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.80
10. “Environmental Security” on the world’s agenda, Environmental Security Units and
policy in most major militaries, UN status of forces agreements, and others
3.78
11. Creating the first global collective intelligence system on the future (GFIS) 3.66
12. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.65
What new concepts or ideas developed by MP
are the most important?
1. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 5.00
2. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.13
3. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.77
4. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.70
5. Alternative to GDP Index for evaluating future change (SOFI) 3.63
6. TransInstitution as a new category of organizations 3.16
7. Time-share holy sites in the Middle East Peace Scenarios 2.91
8. Tele-Nations (connecting those overseas with the development process back home) 2.86
Management Transition/Succession
• Executive Committee or Council of part-time volunteers that makes the transition:
 Elizabeth, Director of Research and Web Master; Ibon, Director of Node Synergies; Cornelia,
New Business Development; Jose, Director of Future Concepts; Blaz, Director of
TransInstitutional Relations; Wes Boyer, and GFIS Web Master, but who should be the COO
and/or CEO
 Suggestions received last year for CEO: Dave Rejeski, Paul Werbos, Charles Perrottet, Jack
Gottsman, and Peter Rzeszotarski.
 Additional suggestions this year: Joe Biden, Jose Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Elizabeth
Florescu, Barry Hughes, Hughes de Jouvenel, Michio Kaku, Kurzweil, Hazel Henderson
• Send out a request for proposals (vision and financial sustainable plan to achieve it)
• Create a Nominating/Search Committee
• MP Executive Committee of Sirkka Heinonen, Sergio Bitar, Lionel Fernandez, Paul Werbos.
• Have both a CEO and Deputy CEO
Additional Comments
Distillations:
• Build on MP’s unique niche in futures research by build a roadmap(s) to positive
future with integrated global strategies
• Align the 15 Global Challenges in some way with the UN 17 Sustainable
Development Goals
• Ten new national SOFIs in the next then years
• Next management: add communications/marketing professional or partnership
• MP recognized as the best creating a collective intelligence system and should
be used as model for many others international non-profit organizations
• State of the Future has too much on the present, needs more future

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Millennium Project Real-Time Delphi priorities for 2016-17

  • 1. Millennium Project Planning Committee Real-Time Delphi 2016 Day 2 (July 22)
  • 2. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Reduce organized religions power Reduce nuclear proliferation US-China long-range goal Increase human intelligence and wisdom Non-military methods for dealing with organized extremists SMAC and Big Data Strategy Scenarios 2030 to Counter TOC Cyberterrorism reduction “Black Swan” search Public role in reducing SIMAD threat Ideas to reduce urban traffic New forms of governance in a multi-polar social media world Smart Cities of the Future Variables that indicate well-being, etc. National and global anti-corruption strategies Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events Global Demography 2050: Strategic Implications Future of Anticipatory Governance The future of work Global Futures Research Priorities (2014-15)
  • 3. MP Priorities (in addition to work/tech)
  • 4. Stop new research and focus on re-establishing a more sustainable financial future for MP: • Resume corporate sponsorship briefings; write proposals; enter contests; encourage Nodes’ to promote sales of GFIS, SOF reports, FRM, and Futures, and create a fund-raising kit that all Node Chairs and Node Members can use. • Yes fundraise, but self-defeating to stop new research; don’t turn into a consulting company to support growth • It is not suitable that the Nodes benefit, but see little responsibility for funding MP. • Use MP martial to address the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals • Teams of Nodes of similar backgrounds to respond to research calls – request for proposals • Promote GFIS rather than side-actions • Re-package MP work (year 3000 scenarios, etc.) as series of publications (use lulu.com, create- space) • Create a dedicated team, workshop, and business plan • Produce MP conferences for income, dissemination, and public relations. • Short videos of key people showing benefits of using MP materials
  • 5. Create On-line Courses on Global Futures Concepts and Methods • MOOCs should be the creation of Nodes, with MP providing input • A source of funds for both Nodes and MP in general • Needs dedicated autonomous unit and offer MP certificate if standards met • Be more creative that the AZ course, state-of-the-art learning systems • Team with a university, MOOC platform (Coursera, UDACITY), and/or other advanced learning systems • Both local Node courses and central/international MP courses • Record courses and offer for sale • World Bank Institute’s MOOCs on Conflict, Fragility and Violence is brilliantly organized, with video lectures, presentations, case studies.
  • 6. Conduct GFIS training programs • Monthly sessions for MP and subscribers, but two times for global time differences and record for later on-demand use • Just announce a time and a date and do it • Node Chairs and Members trained first, then they train others • GFIS is intuitive and generally user friendly, focus on getting people to use it. • Teaching-by-doing, e.g., how the xx aspect of the GFIS affects your region? • Useful for checking understandings • We need part-time top JavaScript writer to keep in evolving • Put in YouTube – on-demand training – YouTube video GFIS for Dummies • Make it one of the MP Online courses • Engage each others’ scanning systems, GFIS advantage is geographic diversity
  • 7. Upgrade National Foresight Capacities 1) National SOFI, 2) President/Prime Minister's future strategy units, 3) national State of the Future (SOF) reports, 4) national collective intelligence systems, 5) tele-nation platform, 6) permanent parliamentary Committees on the Future, 7) in-person and tele-university courses) • Why haven’t we been more successful at this? (Leon Fuerth’s Anticipatory Governance story) https://www.gwu.edu/~igis/assets/docs/working_papers/Anticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf • Video of the benefits of GFIS, SOF, SOFI, FRM, futures courses • Create Generic proposal Node chairs can adopt to their country • Focus on Parliaments like Finland • Integrate national government and political representatives within Nodes
  • 8. Conduct online weekly or monthly separate video conferences for each of the 15 Global Challenges, different topics, and/or monthly review of scanning items added in GFIS. • Video engages more people than print • Individual Node Chairs can initiate (without an immense pile of emails) using GFIS Hangout • Top names in each Challenge leads relevant challenge (GFIS Reviewers per Challenge) • Identify chair for each Challenge who initiates video conferences • A different Challenge each month – engage universities • Make short videos on each challenge, MP YouTube, use webinar platform, use different languages • Video conference on a suddenly emerging globally or regionally important problem, like BREXIT • Region video conferences a well (RIBR and FEN?) • Coordinate with Node Chairs • Node Chairs select most important scanning items for monthly discussion/report on implications (new product?) • Record GFIS training video
  • 9. In Addition to (2014-15) 19 Suggestions The top rated priority was the Future of Work, which is already ongoing. Among the other top-rated priorities, pending funding were: Future of Anticipatory Governance; Global Demography 2050: Strategic Implications; Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events; national and global anti-corruption strategies; variables that indicate well-being, and Smart Cities of the Future. However, over the past year, new more important research priorities may have come to mind: • Make a special book of the three future Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios • Continue to work on an Integrated Global Set of High Impact Strategies • Publish some of the research as books with new distribution channels like FastFuture Publishing; local/national implications of previous global futures research. • New Paradigm of Economic Theory; New Economic Models; Futures Consciousness • Alignment of MP’s 15 Global Challenges with UN’s Sustainable Development Goals • 2050 futures of international security and hybrid security (physical, digital and virtual) • Implications for health of advances in digital technology. • Next Steps for Humanity; construct 4 scenarios for sustainable future by 2050
  • 10. Elements for creating future (5 to 10 year) directions for The Millennium Project
  • 11. What accomplishments are the most important? 1. State of the Future reports 4.42 2. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 4.34 3. State of the Future Index 4.28 4. Evolution of the Real-Time Delphi 4.28 5. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.19 6. Demonstrating that global futures research is possible 4.09 7. Establishment of and synergies among network of Nodes 3.93 8. Production of Futures Research Methodology (FRM 1.0-3.0) 3.90 9. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.80 10. “Environmental Security” on the world’s agenda, Environmental Security Units and policy in most major militaries, UN status of forces agreements, and others 3.78 11. Creating the first global collective intelligence system on the future (GFIS) 3.66 12. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.65
  • 12. What new concepts or ideas developed by MP are the most important? 1. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 5.00 2. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.13 3. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.77 4. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.70 5. Alternative to GDP Index for evaluating future change (SOFI) 3.63 6. TransInstitution as a new category of organizations 3.16 7. Time-share holy sites in the Middle East Peace Scenarios 2.91 8. Tele-Nations (connecting those overseas with the development process back home) 2.86
  • 13. Management Transition/Succession • Executive Committee or Council of part-time volunteers that makes the transition:  Elizabeth, Director of Research and Web Master; Ibon, Director of Node Synergies; Cornelia, New Business Development; Jose, Director of Future Concepts; Blaz, Director of TransInstitutional Relations; Wes Boyer, and GFIS Web Master, but who should be the COO and/or CEO  Suggestions received last year for CEO: Dave Rejeski, Paul Werbos, Charles Perrottet, Jack Gottsman, and Peter Rzeszotarski.  Additional suggestions this year: Joe Biden, Jose Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Elizabeth Florescu, Barry Hughes, Hughes de Jouvenel, Michio Kaku, Kurzweil, Hazel Henderson • Send out a request for proposals (vision and financial sustainable plan to achieve it) • Create a Nominating/Search Committee • MP Executive Committee of Sirkka Heinonen, Sergio Bitar, Lionel Fernandez, Paul Werbos. • Have both a CEO and Deputy CEO
  • 14. Additional Comments Distillations: • Build on MP’s unique niche in futures research by build a roadmap(s) to positive future with integrated global strategies • Align the 15 Global Challenges in some way with the UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals • Ten new national SOFIs in the next then years • Next management: add communications/marketing professional or partnership • MP recognized as the best creating a collective intelligence system and should be used as model for many others international non-profit organizations • State of the Future has too much on the present, needs more future