This document discusses migration trends in Italy. There are approximately 3.9 million legal migrants, comprising 6.5% of the population. Most migrants come from other European countries. While migrants make up a small percentage of the population compared to other Western countries, their numbers have grown significantly in recent decades. Studies show that migrants have not negatively impacted Italian employment or wages on the aggregate level. However, some low-skilled Italian workers may face more direct competition. Migrants also contribute more in taxes than they receive in government services and benefits. While some media coverage portrays migrants as threatening due to crime rates, studies find no causal link between increased migration and crime. Overall, migrants represent an important economic and fiscal resource for Italy.

1. Migration in Italy:
Resource or Threat?
by Fadi Hassan and Luigi Minale

2. How many migrants in Italy?
There are about 3,900,000 legal migrants, about 6.5% of
the total national population
There are also 650.000 illegal migrants, about 1% of the
population.
2
Source: ISTAT and ISMU (2009)

3. Too many or too few? (1)
They are many compared to the numbers we were used to.
Up to the late ‘80s there were more Italians going abroad than
foreigners coming in.
But in the last 20 years the foreign population has sensitively
increased. 6.0%
5.0%
EU
enlargment
4.0%
Percentage of foreign
population in Italy 3.0%
2.0%
Bossi-Fini law
1.0%
0.0%
1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3
Source: ISTAT and ISMU (2009)

4. Too many or too few? (2)
They are few compared to the numbers in other western countries
and with the European average (EU15)
30.0%
25.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
15.0% 14.2%
11.6% 11.8%
11.1%
10.0%
7.4%
5.8%
5.0%
0.0%
Italy EU15 Great Britain Spain France Germany USA Canada
4
Source: Bank of Italy on EU-SILC and ACS (2008)

5. Where do they come from?
EUROPEAN UNION 15 5%
EUROPEAN UNION,
OTHER STATES 23%
OTHER EUROPEAN STATES
NORTH 24%
AMERICA 1%
LATIN
AMERICA 8%
ASIA 16%
AFRICA 23%
About a third of foreigners come from the European Union (dark and light
blue), so their access cannot be regulated.
Migrants coming from Africa are a minority, the majority are European 5

6. How do illegal migrants enter the
country? By land 15%
About 73% enter with a touristic visa Malpensa
and then overstay.
Only 12% enter with a pontoon from With turistic visa from the
Africa. main airports 73%
This means that the mass rejections
of migrants coming from the Fiumicino
Mediterranean sea have a high media
and political impact, but are a poor
tool for illegal migrant control.
Moreover, many of the migrants
coming by sea are asylum seekers. By sea 12%
6
Source: Home Office (2008)

7. How do they look like? (Education)
Education Level, Italian and Foreigners
60.0%
51.2%
50.0% 48.2%
39.4% 38.9%
40.0%
Italian
30.0%
Foreigners
20.0%
12.5%
10.2%
10.0%
0.0%
Primary School High School College
Perhaps surprisingly, Italian and foreigners have very similar
education levels.
7
Source: ISTAT and Bank of Italy, 2010

8. How do they look like? (Demographics)
Italian Foreigners
AGE AGE
Men Women Men Women
Source: ISTAT
From these “Demographic Pyramids” we can see that migrants are younger
More than 80% of them are less than 45 (vs. 50% of Italians) and 20% are less
than 15 (vs. 12% Italians).
Also, migrants have higher fertility rates: on average 2.12 children per woman,
against just 1.26 for an Italian woman 8

9. How will we look like?
According to projections from ISMU, 1 Italian out of 3, younger
than 24, will be of foreign origins by 2050.
Migrants’ sons will give a crucial contribution to tomorrow’s
Italy.
Their integrations is one of the most important political
challenges for our country and the second-generation
immigrants is the key one
The school will play a crucial
role to reach this integration
objective!
9

10. Migration and the labor market
10

11. Employment rates
80%
70% 67% 68%
65%
58% 59%
60%
50% 46%
Italian
40%
30% Foreigners
20%
10%
0%
Italy North and Centre South
Foreigners have higher employment rates than natives
The difference is even more striking for females.
This suggests that working is the primary reason for migration 11

12. The effects of migration
Two major concerns related to migration are:
1. Do migrants take jobs away from Italian workers?
2. Does their presence force Italian workers to accept lower pay?
Some general answers regarding Italy come from a couple of studies:
• A study from the Bank of Italy says that “the growth of
immigration has not been associated with lower employment
opportunities for natives.”
•  No evidence of negative aggregate impact on employment
• A study from INPS shows that “in provinces with higher
concentration of migrants the salaries for natives did not show
any difference in trend with respect to other provinces”
•  No evidence of negative aggregate impact on salaries
12

13. Not everybody is affected in the same way
Migrant workers certainly have a positive aggregate effect on the economy. They
represent 6.5% of the population but contribute to about 10% of the GDP.
Nonetheless the effects of immigration on employment and wages are not
homogenous for everybody, there are losers and winners:
• Low-skilled native workers are slightly worse off because face direct competition
from migrants, especially from illegal migrants. Regularizing the position of these
migrants would probably favor low-skilled Italian workers.
• High-skilled native workers are better off because they exploit complementarities
with low skilled workers
• Women beneficiate from the presence of migrants who provide services such as
childcare and housekeeping. Migrants in Italy often substitute the state in the
provision of services that are crucial to allow females to get back to work.
13

14. Migration and Welfare State
14

15. Are Migrants a Fiscal Cost?
4.5
4%
4
3.5
3
2.6%
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0 Source: ISTAT
Fiscal revenues from migrants Fiscal expenditure for migrants
Migrants are actually a resource for the State!
They provide 4% of total fiscal revenues, but they receive 2.6% of total expenditure!
15

16. Some fiscal details
o Taxation
• Migrants pay 4.5 billions of income tax
• They also pay 10 billions of other taxes and social contributions
• They pay 5% of IRAP
o Education
• Migrants receive almost 4 billions (5% of total expenditure on
education)
o Health
• They receive almost 3 billions (3% of total health expenditure). On
average they are younger and they get sick less than Italians
o Income Subsidies
• They receive almost 1 billion (7% of the total expenditure)
16

17. Do Migrants Pay our Pensions?
For now the answer is certainly yes!
Italy, after Japan, has the oldest population of the world.
Foreign migration is on average much younger than the Italian population
and this helps to diminish the dependency ratio*
However, this offsetting effect is just temporary and limited in time and
cannot be considered as a permanent solution to our pension system.
* The dependency ratio is the ratio of older dependents people to the working-age population. It provides a figure of the population ageing trend
and it’s an important indicator of the weight that pension and health expenditure is expected to have on the State’s balance. 17

18. Migration and Crime
18

19. How many crimes do migrants
commit?
26% of crimes are committed by foreigners
37% of people in jail are foreigners
19
Source: ISTAT and Ministry of Justice

20. Migrants’ crimes: a lot or a few?
They are a lot: the share of crimes committed by migrants
is 4 times higher their population share
26,2% 5,8%
Migrants’ share on total population
Share of migrants’ crimes on total crimes
20
Source: ISTAT, 2008

21. Delinquency rates
Despite the absolute number of crimes being high, migrants’
delinquency rate has decreased sharply
Migrants’ delinquency rate
5.3%
3.5%
2.2%
2000 2003 2006 Source: ISTAT
This suggests that the majority of migrants that come to Italy
are not criminal, but people looking for better opportunities 21

22. Do migrants increase criminality? 4.50%
5000 Crimes every 100.000 ctizens
4.00%
Migrants' share of population
3.50%
4000
3.00%
3000 2.50%
2.00%
2000
1.50%
1.00%
1000
0.50%
0 0.00% Source: ISTAT,
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Home Office
In the last 15 years despite a sharp increase in migrants, the total number of crimes
didn’t increase significantly.
The number of crimes in 1996 and 2003, or in 1991 and 2007, is very similar.
Econometric studies of the Bank of Italy show that there is no causal link between
increase in migration and increase in crimes. 22

23. So, no problems on migrants and
crimes?
The high delinquency rate among migrants creates problems of
integration.
But the point is: do Italian citizens care about reducing the
overall number of crimes or the crimes committed by migrants?
If the overall number of crimes is the issue, then a restrictive or
repressive attitude towards migration is not the right answer.
An effective action on the roots that favor criminality in Italy is
what really matters.
23

24. Migrants, Crime, and Media (1)
Do you agree with the following statement? “migrants increase crime”
Not sure,
Strongly agree,
16.8%
24.4%
Strongly disagree,
8.9%
Partly disagree,
16.9%
Agree,
33.0%
This poll (ISPO, 2003) show that in the Italian public opinion there is
a deep-rooted association between migrants and crime.
57% of Italian believe that migration increases criminality.
Only 26% believe that this is not true. 24

25. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media
4000 100
90
3500
80
3000
70
2500
60
Crime's News
2000 50
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0 0
1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008
The red line indicates the number of news on crime from the main
Italian broadcasters
25

26. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media
4000 100
90
3500
80
3000
70
2500
60
Crime's News
2000 50
40 Actual Crimes
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0 0
1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008
The blue line represents the actual number of crimes
25

27. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media
4000 100
90
3500
80
3000
70 Crime's News
2500
60
53.1 Actual Crimes
2000 50
50.7
44.2
40
1500 33.8 Crime's
39.8
Perception
30
1000
20
500
10
0 0
1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008
The yellow line captures citizens’ perception of crime
25

28. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media
4000 100
90
3500
80
3000
70 Crime's News
2500
60
53.1 Actual Crimes
2000 50
50.7
44.2
40
1500 33.8 Crime's
39.8
Perception
30
1000
20
500
10
0 0
1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008
We can see that the media bombardment on crime leads to an
increase of crime’s perception from 34% to 53% without an actual
increase in the number of crimes 25

29. Conclusions
This presentation suggests that migration is an important
resource for Italy.
This does not mean that migration is unproblematic or
that we should open our borders indiscriminately.
Migration is a resource that needs to be managed,
programmed and regulated properly.
We need a forward-looking policy grounded on sound
data, not on ideologies, that enhances the positive sides
of migration and minimize the negative ones.
26

30. Literary Conclusion: Migration and Culture
From Massimo Montanari’s book “Food as a Culture”:
“Often we oppose migration to defend our cultural roots. But the
roots of trees, under ground, bifurcate going very far from the tree.
They take unpredictable paths and lead to different points,
sometimes remote.
Think about the meal course “Spaghetti al Pomodoro”, our typical
national dish and an Italian brand all over the world. Well, the roots
of this meal are not Italian at all.
The invention of Spaghetti is disputed between Chinese and Arab,
we made it our only by getting in touch with these civilizations.
Tomato is not an Italian plant, not even European, but it was taken
from America…”
27

31. Thanks!
If you liked it, forward the link to you friends and sustain
our project!
Authors:
fadi.hassan@quattrogatti.info | luigi.minale@quattrogatti.info
Contacts:
quattrogatti@quattrogatti.info | @_quattrogatti |
facebook.com/quattrogatti.info