Annual Health Strategy Summit

Dr Martin Bardsley
Head of Research
Nuffield Trust



Twitter: #NTSummit

                                © Nuffield Trust
Annual Health Strategy Summit


Nuffield Data Lab




Martin Bardsley
Head of Research, Nuffield Trust
March 2011                         © Nuffield Trust

Twitter: #NTSummit
You say you want a revolution




March 2011                      © Nuffield Trust
We all wanna change the world




March 2011                      © Nuffield Trust
You say you got a real solution




March 2011                        © Nuffield Trust
Breakfast session tomorrow

8am - 8.45am
The digital and Information revolution: how can the NHS
  make digital productivity real?


Tim Kelsey, Trustee, Nuffield Trust
Sophia Christie, Director of Alignment and Co-ordination,
 Improvement, Efficiency and QIPP, Department of
 Health
Azalea Room

                                                            © Nuffield Trust
Key challenges and opportunities

• Outcome measurement
• Information to enable patients, service users and their
  carers to make fully informed choices


• Using new information technologies to create efficiencies
• Exploiting information across organisational boundaries
• Allocating resources
               Information at the individual level


                                                              © Nuffield Trust
Looking at individual pathways across services

                                                 Start of trial
      Patterns of service use over 2 years




March 2011                                            © Nuffield Trust
Relative size of data sets collected
  For one PCT area (WSD project)
Accident and      Outpatients         Inpatients        Social care       Community        GPs
emergency         1,680,000 records   360,000 records   240,000 records   matrons          60 practices
350,000 records                                                           20,000 records   48.5 million records




  March 2011                                                                                      © Nuffield Trust
One person hospital cost profile over a year
50-60 year old male, total annual cost > £35,000


                    Outpatients   DayCase   Elective   AE   Nonelective




             Time (weeks)                                                 © Nuffield Trust
Uneven distribution of costs



                               The proportion of total costs
                               spent on patients with
                               category of annual costs
                               (area of shape) with the
                               proportion of all patients in
                               annual cost band (dots)

                               Around 3% of patients are
                               responsible for nearly half the
                               total patient costs



                                                                 © Nuffield Trust
Identifying patient costs at GP Practice level



                                                       
                                                         

                                                                           

                                                                           

 General population: Mix of predicted future costs                      Practice population


@ £10,000 per person per year   @ £1,000 per person per year   @ £100 per person per year   © Nuffield Trust

                                                                                                © Nuffield Trust
Breakout Session Azalea Room

Allocating healthcare budgets to general
  practices

Professor Peter Smith, Professor of Health Policy, Imperial
  College London


Chair: Dr Jennifer Dixon, Director, Nuffield Trust


Azalea Room

                                                              © Nuffield Trust
Overlap of health and social care

                                               Looking at all over 55s, registered
                                               continuously with local GPs from April
                   Registered pop
                                               2005 to April 2008
                       77,000


                 Secondary care
                     53,000
                [69% of reg'd pop]

                                                              90% of those with a social
                                                              care contact have also had
                                       Social care            secondary care contact(s)
                                     contact 13,000
                                      [17% of reg'd           in the three years
                                          pop]




                                                                                 © Nuffield Trust
Inpatient and SC costs per person in final year, by age
band

over two lines
    £12,000


    £10,000


     £8,000


     £6,000
                   Social care
     £4,000
                   Hospital IP care

     £2,000        SC+ Hosp

        £0
              40   50            60   70         80   90   100
                                      Age Band



                                                                 © Nuffield Trust
Breakout Session      Bay Room

Interface of health and social care

David Behan, Director General Of Social Care, Local
  Government and Care Partnerships, Department of Health


Chair: Dr Geraint Lewis, Senior Fellow, Nuffield Trust
Bay Room




                                                           © Nuffield Trust
Predict and Prevent?



“Realising the savings needed to invest in improving
outcomes means moving from a system configured
to diagnose and treat, to one configured to predict
and prevent”


     David Nicholson. Letter to NHS 17th Feb 2011




                                                       © Nuffield Trust
Emergency inpatient admissions for four selected
ambulatory care sensitive conditions 2001-2010
                                                   Combined net
                                                   difference in
                                                   emergency
                                                   admissions
                                                   between 2001/2
                                                   and 2009/10:


                                                   +77,652
                                                   -38,138
                                                   -28,563
                                                    +3,517
                                                         0




                                                            © Nuffield Trust
Impact of eight different interventions on hospital use




                                                          © Nuffield Trust
Evaluation of telecare and telehealth
“For every pound spent on telecare, five pounds could be saved on expensive hospital and
                      residential care” Counsel and Care, 2009




                                                                                      © Nuffield Trust
Breakout Session     Begonia Room

Telehealth technologies and the management
  of chronic disease

Stephen Johnson, Head of Long Term Conditions,
  Department of Health


Chair: Dr Martin Bardsley, Head of Research, Nuffield Trust
Begonia Room



                                                              © Nuffield Trust
Parallel Sessions 15:15-16:00


      Allocating             Professor Peter Smith, Professor of       Azalea
      healthcare budgets     Health Policy, Imperial College London
      to general practices   Chair: Dr Jennifer Dixon, Director,
                                                                       Room
                             Nuffield Trust

      Telehealth             Stephen Johnson, Head of Long Term        Begonia
      technologies and       Conditions, Department of Health
      the management of      Chair: Dr Martin Bardsley, Head of
                                                                       Room
      chronic disease        Research, Nuffield Trust

      Interface of health    David Behan, Director General Of          Bay
      and social care        Social Care, Local Government and
                             Care Partnerships, Department of
                                                                       Room
                             Health
                             Chair: Dr Geraint Lewis, Senior Fellow,
                             Nuffield Trust


                                                                                 © Nuffield Trust
Thank you...Don't you know its going to be.. Alright...?
        www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk


        Sign-up for our newsletter
        www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter


        Follow us on Twitter
        (http://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust)




March 2011                                                 © Nuffield Trust

Martin Bardsley: Nuffield data lab

  • 1.
    Annual Health StrategySummit Dr Martin Bardsley Head of Research Nuffield Trust Twitter: #NTSummit © Nuffield Trust
  • 2.
    Annual Health StrategySummit Nuffield Data Lab Martin Bardsley Head of Research, Nuffield Trust March 2011 © Nuffield Trust Twitter: #NTSummit
  • 3.
    You say youwant a revolution March 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 4.
    We all wannachange the world March 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 5.
    You say yougot a real solution March 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 6.
    Breakfast session tomorrow 8am- 8.45am The digital and Information revolution: how can the NHS make digital productivity real? Tim Kelsey, Trustee, Nuffield Trust Sophia Christie, Director of Alignment and Co-ordination, Improvement, Efficiency and QIPP, Department of Health Azalea Room © Nuffield Trust
  • 7.
    Key challenges andopportunities • Outcome measurement • Information to enable patients, service users and their carers to make fully informed choices • Using new information technologies to create efficiencies • Exploiting information across organisational boundaries • Allocating resources Information at the individual level © Nuffield Trust
  • 8.
    Looking at individualpathways across services Start of trial Patterns of service use over 2 years March 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 9.
    Relative size ofdata sets collected For one PCT area (WSD project) Accident and Outpatients Inpatients Social care Community GPs emergency 1,680,000 records 360,000 records 240,000 records matrons 60 practices 350,000 records 20,000 records 48.5 million records March 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 10.
    One person hospitalcost profile over a year 50-60 year old male, total annual cost > £35,000 Outpatients DayCase Elective AE Nonelective Time (weeks) © Nuffield Trust
  • 11.
    Uneven distribution ofcosts The proportion of total costs spent on patients with category of annual costs (area of shape) with the proportion of all patients in annual cost band (dots) Around 3% of patients are responsible for nearly half the total patient costs © Nuffield Trust
  • 12.
    Identifying patient costsat GP Practice level                      General population: Mix of predicted future costs Practice population @ £10,000 per person per year @ £1,000 per person per year @ £100 per person per year © Nuffield Trust © Nuffield Trust
  • 13.
    Breakout Session AzaleaRoom Allocating healthcare budgets to general practices Professor Peter Smith, Professor of Health Policy, Imperial College London Chair: Dr Jennifer Dixon, Director, Nuffield Trust Azalea Room © Nuffield Trust
  • 14.
    Overlap of healthand social care Looking at all over 55s, registered continuously with local GPs from April Registered pop 2005 to April 2008 77,000 Secondary care 53,000 [69% of reg'd pop] 90% of those with a social care contact have also had Social care secondary care contact(s) contact 13,000 [17% of reg'd in the three years pop] © Nuffield Trust
  • 15.
    Inpatient and SCcosts per person in final year, by age band over two lines £12,000 £10,000 £8,000 £6,000 Social care £4,000 Hospital IP care £2,000 SC+ Hosp £0 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Age Band © Nuffield Trust
  • 16.
    Breakout Session Bay Room Interface of health and social care David Behan, Director General Of Social Care, Local Government and Care Partnerships, Department of Health Chair: Dr Geraint Lewis, Senior Fellow, Nuffield Trust Bay Room © Nuffield Trust
  • 17.
    Predict and Prevent? “Realisingthe savings needed to invest in improving outcomes means moving from a system configured to diagnose and treat, to one configured to predict and prevent” David Nicholson. Letter to NHS 17th Feb 2011 © Nuffield Trust
  • 18.
    Emergency inpatient admissionsfor four selected ambulatory care sensitive conditions 2001-2010 Combined net difference in emergency admissions between 2001/2 and 2009/10: +77,652 -38,138 -28,563 +3,517 0 © Nuffield Trust
  • 19.
    Impact of eightdifferent interventions on hospital use © Nuffield Trust
  • 20.
    Evaluation of telecareand telehealth “For every pound spent on telecare, five pounds could be saved on expensive hospital and residential care” Counsel and Care, 2009 © Nuffield Trust
  • 21.
    Breakout Session Begonia Room Telehealth technologies and the management of chronic disease Stephen Johnson, Head of Long Term Conditions, Department of Health Chair: Dr Martin Bardsley, Head of Research, Nuffield Trust Begonia Room © Nuffield Trust
  • 22.
    Parallel Sessions 15:15-16:00 Allocating Professor Peter Smith, Professor of Azalea healthcare budgets Health Policy, Imperial College London to general practices Chair: Dr Jennifer Dixon, Director, Room Nuffield Trust Telehealth Stephen Johnson, Head of Long Term Begonia technologies and Conditions, Department of Health the management of Chair: Dr Martin Bardsley, Head of Room chronic disease Research, Nuffield Trust Interface of health David Behan, Director General Of Bay and social care Social Care, Local Government and Care Partnerships, Department of Room Health Chair: Dr Geraint Lewis, Senior Fellow, Nuffield Trust © Nuffield Trust
  • 23.
    Thank you...Don't youknow its going to be.. Alright...? www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter (http://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust) March 2011 © Nuffield Trust