Market Watch 2017: What Property Managers Need to Know

©2016 Axiometrics Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
1© 2016 Axiometrics Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Apartment Market Overview: Where Have We Been and
Where Are We Going?
AppFolio – November 10, 2016

 National Trends
 What are we seeing nationwide?
 Market-Specific Trends
 Now that we know national trends, what are some noteworthy metro
areas?
 Forecast
 What do we see happening in 2017?
 Key Takeaways
 Summarizing apartment industry dynamics and Q&A
Outline

News Media on the Multifamily Sector
Are we in a downturn? Approaching one?

Econ 101
Supply = new apartment construction
Demand = job growth
Quantity
Price

National Overview

19% 15% 18% 17%
12% 8%
16%
23% 29%
28%
28%
28%
25%
29%
39%
34%
29% 27%
39%
47%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-16
<0% 0%-2.5% 2.5%-5% >5%
National Performance by Submarket
Compared to cycle (2010 – current), performance isn’t all that bad
Source: Axiometrics
Effective Rent Growth (ERG)

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National
Year-to-Date Effective Rent Growth
Fair comparisons to 2013?
2016
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
National
Cycle Avg. 2016
Source: Axiometrics

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Rent Growth, Cycle Average, and Long-Term Average
Rent growth is now below cycle average, but still above long-term average
Source: Axiometrics
Annual ERG by Month

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Source: Axiometrics
Long Term AverageAnnual ERG by Month

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Source: Axiometrics
Long Term Average Cycle Average (2010 – 2016)Annual ERG by Month

Annual Effective Rent Growth by MSA
2015 (Full Year)
Source: Axiometrics
30 green dots

Data as of October 2016
Source: Axiometrics
19 green dots

Market Average
Note – excludes submarkets with fewer than 2,500 units
Source: Axiometrics

Market Average
ERG by Submarket
Note – excludes submarkets with fewer than 2,500 units
Source: Axiometrics

Job Growth Forecast
Job growth expected to average 1.7% over next 5 years
(7,000.0)
(6,000.0)
(5,000.0)
(4,000.0)
(3,000.0)
(2,000.0)
(1,000.0)
-
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
-4.5%
-3.5%
-2.5%
-1.5%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
JobGain(000)
JobGrowth
Job Gain Job Growth
Job
Growth
2010 0.5%
2011 1.5%
2012 1.6%
2013 1.8%
2014 2.1%
2015 2.0%
2016F 1.7%
2017F 1.5%
2018F 1.7%
2019F 1.9%
2020F 1.7%
2021F 1.4%
Sources: Axiometrics, BLS

Economic Expansion in Months (Post-Recessions)
Currently in third longest post-war expansion – how long until next recession?
37
45
39
24
106
36
58
91
120
73
88
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct. 49 -
Jul. 53
Oct. 49 -
Jul. 53
May 53 -
Aug. 57
Apr. 58 -
Apr. 60
Feb. 61 -
Dec. 69
Nov. 70 -
Nov. 73
Mar. 75 -
Jan. 80
Dec. 82 -
Jul. 90
Mar. 91 -
Mar. 01
Nov. 01 -
Dec. 07
Jul. 09 -
Nov. 16
MonthsBetweenRecessions
Sources: Axiometrics, St. Louis Fed

0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Sep-16
UnitsPermitted
Single Family Single Family LTA Multifamily (5+ units) Multifamily LTA
Long-Term Residential Permitting
Single-family well below long-term average, suggesting a housing shortfall
Sources: Axiometrics, Census

© 2016 Axiometrics Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 22
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
94.0%
94.5%
95.0%
95.5%
96.0%
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Occupancy Rate
National Asset Class Performance
A B C
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Annual Effective Rent Growth
Source: Axiometrics

© 2016 Axiometrics Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 23
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Denver
Annual Rent Growth by Asset Class
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
San FranciscoA B C
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Phoenix
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Seattle
Source: Axiometrics

Seattle, Washington

Seattle – Annual Effective Rent Growth by Submarket
2014 2015 October 2016
Source: Axiometrics

Seattle Job Growth (2011 – 2016)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
AnnualJobGrowth
Nearly 4% job
growth back in
July

Seattle – Rent and Job Growth (1997-2021F)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
AnnualJobGrowth
AnnualRentGrowth
Annual Rent Growth Job Growth
Annual Effective
Rent Growth
Job Growth
2016 7.2% 3.3%
2017F 2.8% 2.2%
2018F 3.7% 2.0%
2019F 4.6% 2.3%
2020F 3.6% 1.9%
2021F 2.7% 1.4%

Seattle New Supply (2016 to 2021F)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16F
1Q17F
2Q17F
3Q17F
4Q17F
1Q18F
2Q18F
3Q18F
4Q18F
1Q19F
2Q19F
3Q19F
4Q19F
1Q20F
2Q20F
3Q20F
4Q20F
1Q21F
2Q21F
3Q21F
4Q21F
Supply projected
to peak in 4Q17
Source: Axiometrics

Denver, Colorado

-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual ERG by Year ERG (LTA)
Year-to-Date Effective Rent Growth – Denver
Source: Axiometrics
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Very strong post-recovery period

Denver, CO – Annual Effective Rent Growth by Submarket
2014
2015
October 2016
Source: Axiometrics

Denver – Rent and Job Growth (1998 – 2021F)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
AnnualJobGrowth&RentGrowth
AnnualNewSupply
New Supply Annual Rent Growth Job Growth

Denver – Effective Rent Growth by Submarket
Source: Axiometrics
2015 Oct. 2016

Phoenix, AZ

3Q 2016 Rent Growth Performance by Metro
Phoenix ranked fifth for quarter among top metros
3Q 2016 Rent Growth by Metro Rankings
Rank Metro Annual Rent Growth
1 Sacramento, CA 11.0%
2 Portland, OR 8.0%
3 Seattle, WA 7.4%
4 Riverside, CA 7.4%
5 Phoenix, AZ 6.7%
6 San Diego, CA 6.6%
7 Fort Worth, TX 6.5%
8 Salt Lake City, UT 6.5%
9 Tampa, FL 6.4%
10 Nashville, TN 6.4%
Source: Axiometrics

Phoenix, AZ – Annual Effective Rent Growth by Submarket
2014
2015
October 2016
Source: Axiometrics

Phoenix New Supply and Rent Growth (2016 to 2021F)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16F
1Q17F
2Q17F
3Q17F
4Q17F
1Q18F
2Q18F
3Q18F
4Q18F
1Q19F
2Q19F
3Q19F
4Q19F
1Q20F
2Q20F
3Q20F
4Q20F
1Q21F
2Q21F
3Q21F
4Q21F
AnnualRentGrowth
NewSupply(Units)
New Supply Rent Growth
Source: Axiometrics

Residential Permitting in Phoenix
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sep-16
Single Family(1 unit) Multifamily (5+ units)
Lots of single family
housing prior to housing
crash
Very little pre-crash
multifamily housing
Sources: Axiometrics, Census

Phoenix – Rent and Job Growth
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
AnnualJobGrowth
AnnualRentGrowth
Annual Rent Growth Job Growth
Annual Effective
Rent Growth
Job Growth
2016 6.1% 2.5%
2017F 2.7% 2.2%
2018F 3.5% 2.6%
2019F 4.2% 2.9%
2020F 3.4% 2.4%
2021F 2.7% 2.1%

Houston, Texas

2014
2015
October 2016
Source: Axiometrics
Houston – Annual Effective Rent Growth by Submarket

Employment in Houston
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-175.0
-125.0
-75.0
-25.0
25.0
75.0
125.0
175.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
AnnualJobGrowth
AnnualJobGain(Thousands)
Job Gain Job Growth

Oil & Gas Sector in Houston
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oil Prices Job Growth
Sources: Axiometrics, EIA
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oil Prices Rent Growth

Houston New Supply (2011 to 2021F)
-
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16F
1Q17F
2Q17F
3Q17F
4Q17F
1Q18F
2Q18F
3Q18F
4Q18F
1Q19F
2Q19F
3Q19F
4Q19F
1Q20F
2Q20F
3Q20F
4Q20F
1Q21F
2Q21F
3Q21F
4Q21F
Supply projected
to peak in 2Q17
Source: Axiometrics

Houston – Rent Growth and Occupancy Rates
Rent growth looks like a recession, but occupancy rates holding up
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
95.0%
96.0%
97.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
OccupancyRate
AnnualRentGrowth
Annual Effective Rent Growth Occupancy Rate
Source: Axiometrics

Houston – Rent Growth and Occupancy Rates
Rent growth looks like a recession, but occupancy rates holding up
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
95.0%
96.0%
97.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
OccupancyRate
AnnualRentGrowth
Annual Effective Rent Growth Occupancy Rate
Annual Rent
Growth
Job
Growth
2016 -1.4% 0.5%
2017F 0.6% 1.3%
2018F 3.3% 1.9%
2019F 4.1% 2.6%
2020F 3.4% 2.5%
2021F 2.6% 2.1%
Source: Axiometrics

San Francisco Bay Area

Year-to-Date Effective Rent Growth – San Francisco Area
Source: Axiometrics
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
San Francisco, CA
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Oakland, CA
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
San Jose, CA

San Francisco Bay Area – Why the Sudden Slowdown?
Source: Axiometrics
3Q15
3Q16

San Francisco Bay Area – Why the Sudden Slowdown?
Source: Axiometrics
Job growth slowed 3%
Rent growth slowed 12%
3Q15
3Q16

Lease Up Trends and Concession Values
Source: Axiometrics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Units
San Francisco
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Units
San Jose
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Units
Oakland

San Francisco – New Supply and Rent Growth
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
NewSupply(Units)
AnnualRentGrowth
New Supply Annual Rent Growth LTA ERG LTA New Supply
Source: Axiometrics

Forecast

Rent Growth and Job Growth – 2016

Rent Growth and Job Growth – 2017F

Positive Headlines

 Media reports imminent downturn, but it’s more complicated than
that
 Performance is relative:
 Relative to the market you’re in
 Relative to the submarket you’re in
 Relative to your price point
 Relative to your comparison time period
 In general, the industry is doing well: expect moderation and
compression across markets
 How will my market perform? Remember your economics: supply
vs. demand
Key Takeaways

Cumulative Rent Growth by Market and Submarket
2011 to 2016
38.9%
37.2%
30.7%
25.4%
23.6%
18.2%
10.7%
5.6%
19.5%
27.9%
25.0%
5.8%
7.9%
5.5% 4.7% 4.2%
Denver,CO
Seattle,WA
Atlanta,GA
Dallas,TX
Austin,TX
Houston,TX
Baltimore,MD
Washington,DC
Market Urban Core
Source: Axiometrics

Demographic Drivers
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
15 to 19
Years
20 to 24
Years
25 to 29
Years
30 to 34
Years
35 to 39
Years
40 to 44
Years
45 to 49
Years
50 to 54
Years
55 to 59
Years
60 to 64
Years
PopulationinMillions

Concessions by Floor Plan – San Francisco Bay Area
San Francisco Bay Area
Source: Axiometrics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Units
San Jose

Market Watch 2017: What Property Managers Need to Know

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