More Related Content Similar to Perspectiva de la industria automotriz en Peru (20) Perspectiva de la industria automotriz en Peru1. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectivas de la
Industria Automotriz
PERU
Diciembre, 2016
Guido Vildozo | Senior Manager, Americas
+1 781 301 9037, guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com
2. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Source: © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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3. Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
INDICADORES ECONÓMICOS
PERSPECTIVA GLOBAL DE LA
INDUSTRIA AUTOMOTRIZ
CAMBIOS EN MOBILIDAD
PERSPECTIVA DE LA INDUSTRIA
AUTOMOTRIZ EN AMÉRICA
LATINA
PERSPECTIVA DE VENTAS
AUTOMOTRICES PARA EL
MERCADO PERUANO
RESUMEN
3
4. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
World United
States
Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China United
Kingdom
2015 2016 2017 Avg. 2018-23
World economic growth rates
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
World avg. 2.5%
4
Crecimiento económico - Mundial
5. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-2
0
2
4
6
NAFTA Other
Americas
Western
Europe
Emerging
Europe
Mideast-
N. Africa
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
Japan Other
Asia-
Pacific
Annualpercentchange
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019–23
Asia-Pacifico será la región con mayor crecimiento
5
Real GDP
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
5
6. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
(Index, over 50 indicates expansion)
35
40
45
50
55
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index,over50signalsexpansion
Global Emerging markets Developed markets
Índices de Manufactura Global
6
PMIs
Source: Markit © 2016 IHS
6
7. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Percentchange
Real world exports Real world GDP
La era de rápido crecimiento comercial termino
7
Real GDP and trade
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
7
8. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Precios de materias primas recuperan desde Enero
IHS Materials Price Index
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IHSweeklyindexes,2002:1=1
All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
8
9. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas Globales Automotrices 2016
© 2016 IHS 9
88.1
90.0
+ 1.6
+ 0.8
+ 0.2
+ 0.2 - 0.1
- 0.1
- 0.1
- 0.6
88.0
88.5
89.0
89.5
90.0
90.5
91.0
2015 Greater China West Europe South Asia North America Middle
East/Africa
Central/East
Europe
Japan/Korea South America 2016
Millionunits
+2.3%
9
10. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
26.4
+6.0%
26.7
+1.1%
27.4
+2.7%
21.0
+1.3%
21.3
+1.5%
21.2
-0.5%
19.6
+3.5%
19.7
+0.6%
20.1
+2.3%
6.7
-1.4%
6.8
+2.8%
6.7
-1.5%
7.8 -4.9%
8.4 +4.8%
9.1 +6.6%
4.5 4.8 5.1
3.7 3.7 3.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018
Millones
Greater China North America Europe Japan/Korea South Asia Middle East/Africa South America
Short term supports 3-speed world
© 2016 IHS Markit
10
Desarrollo de mercado por región
10
Source: IHS Markit
11. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Millones
Emerging 3Q '15
Mature 3Q '15
Emerging 3Q '16
Mature 3Q '16
11
Potential of emerging markets lowered
© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
11
Desarrollo de mercado Maduro vs Emergente
12. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Transporte/Mobilidad
presente vs. futuro (2040)
12
13. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
13
© 2016 IHS Markit
Un nuevo contexto global se forma, sin embargo aun no
se sabe que rol cada variable tendrá
Presión
Regulatoria
Rivales Energéticos
Desarrollo
Tecnológico
Conectividad
Cambios en la Sociedad
Incertidumbre
EconómicaMedio Ambiente
Source: IHS Markit
Temas globales influenciando al sector
automotriz del mañana
13
14. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
14
Potential for
peak global
auto sales
Share of gasoline ICE to decline
14
El futuro de la industria puede ser muy diverso
15. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
15
Gasoline demand
peaks in all IHS
scenarios
Electricity’s share
in transport
is growing
15
La gasolina será desplazada por otras energías
alternativas
16. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
16
(million per year)
16
Pronostico de ventas de carros eléctricos por
región
17. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
17
Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América Latina
Margen de error 2016 y perspectivas de crecimiento
17
Pais CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2017 P'17
CY 2016
Dic15 MOE '16
Argentina 650,144 631,996 -2.8% 671,076 6.2% 710,291 5.8% 579,740 15.8%
Brazil 3,333,082 2,480,502 -25.6% 1,979,968 -20.2% 1,969,610 -0.5% 2,100,228 -5.7%
Chile 328,412 283,495 -13.7% 298,081 5.1% 314,877 5.6% 262,057 13.7%
Colombia 296,047 267,821 -9.5% 237,073 -11.5% 247,472 4.4% 264,117 -10.2%
Ecuador 92,930 72,117 -22.4% 57,020 -20.9% 54,497 -4.4% 81,413 -30.0%
Mexico 1,135,029 1,351,812 19.1% 1,599,031 18.3% 1,695,393 6.0% 1,399,876 14.2%
Peru 165,915 147,559 -11.1% 151,772 2.9% 162,531 7.1% 150,483 0.9%
18. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectivas económicas - Perú
18
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
PIB
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Inflación
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Cambio de Moneda por USD*
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Billones(USD)
Cuenta Corriente
*Promedio anual
19. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Venta de Vehículos Ligeros (SAAR) - Perú
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Miles
20. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros - Perú
20
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Miles
Sales Annual Change
Eminente retomada de crecimiento
21. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Marcas Mas Vendidas 2016
21
Toyota Hyundai Kia Nissan Suzuki Chevrolet Renault Mazda VW Mitsubishi Others
2010 30.5% 11.5% 8.3% 10.2% 7.7% 7.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.9% 2.1% 15.7%
2015 19.3% 13.8% 14.9% 8.5% 5.8% 5.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 21.5%
2016 16.9% 16.4% 15.0% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 22.8%
2017 17.7% 15.8% 14.9% 8.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 24.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
22. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Bodytype –SUVs sobrepasaran a sedanes
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Miles
2013 2016 2020 2025
23. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Millares
Toyota OEM YOY Industry YOY
Toyota
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yaris Hilux RAV4 Corolla Avanza
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry
2016
OEM
2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2016 2025
24. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hyundai OEM YOY Industry YOY
Hyundai
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
i10 Accent Tucson Elantra Santa Fe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
25. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Millares
Kia OEM YOY Industry YOY
Kia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
26. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
5
10
15
20
25
Millares
Nissan OEM YOY Industry YOY
Nissan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sentra Tiida Frontier Versa X-Trail
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
27. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Suzuki
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Swift Alto Vitara APV Celerio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Millares
Suzuki OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
28. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Chevrolet
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
N300 Sail Trax Spark Captiva
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-
5
10
15
20
25
Millares
Chevrolet OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
29. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Millares
Renault OEM YOY Industry YOY
Renault
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Duster Duster Oroch Logan Sandero Master
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
30. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mazda
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3 CX-5 2 CX-3 BT-50
0
1
1
2
2
3
2011 2016 2025
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
Millares
Mazda OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
31. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Volkswagen
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gol Amarok Fox Up! Jetta
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
2011 2016 2025
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Millares
Volkswagen OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
32. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mitsubishi
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
L200 Mirage ASX Outlander Montero
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Millares
Mitsubishi OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
33. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Honda
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HR-V CR-V Pilot Civic Fit
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Millares
Honda OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
34. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
BMW
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3-Series X3 X1 1-Series 5-Series
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Millares
BMW OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
35. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mercedes-Benz
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sprinter C-Class GLE CLA GLA
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Millares
Mercedes-Benz OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
36. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Audi
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
A3 A4 Q5 Q3 Q7
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Millares
Audi OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
37. IHS MarkitTM COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER © 2016 IHS Markit.
No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS Markit. Content reproduced or
redistributed with IHS Markit permission must display IHS Markit legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources
considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by
law, IHS Markit shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained
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IHS Markit Customer Care:
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Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!
Guido Vildozo,
Senior Manager, Americas
guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com
781-301-9037