- The document presents Tesla's gross profit projections for its Model S, Model X, Model 3, and other vehicles from 2014 to 2027 under different margin scenarios: selected case, best case, base case, and worse case. - The selected case projects average margins of 7-34% for older models, 10-24% for Model 3, and 26-30% for other vehicles through 2027. - Automotive gross profit is projected to grow from $861 million in 2014 to over $48 billion in 2027 under the selected case.

1. Margins Selected case 2
2014 2015 2016 2017Q3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
In Million Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Gross profit (Model S & Model X ) 861 918 1,601 1,698 3061.0 3895.4 4999.7 6167.8 7309.3 8628.2 9585.9 10456.3 11405.7 12211.0
Gross profit (Model 3 862.6 1881.8 3326.2 4998.8 7651.8 10117.0 12261.8 14366.0 16831.2 18699.4
Gross profit (Other vehicles) 0.0 643.4 1810.2 3290.9 5982.8 8459.7 11107.6 13462.4 15772.6 17523.3
Automotive Gross profit 861.263 917.671 1600.685 1697.573 3923.6 6420.6 10136.0 14457.6 20943.9 27204.9 32955.3 38284.7 44009.5 48433.7
Selected Case
Average Margin (Model S & Model X ) 7% 74% 6% 26% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Average Margin (Model 3 10% 12% 15% 18% 22% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Average Margin (Other vehicles) 26% 28% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Best Case
Average Margin (Model S & Model X ) 27% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Average Margin (Model 3 11% 13% 16% 19% 23% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Average Margin (Other vehicles) 27% 29% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31%
Base Case
Average Margin (Model S & Model X ) 26% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Average Margin (Model 3 10% 12% 15% 18% 22% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Average Margin (Other vehicles) 26% 28% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Worse Case
Average Margin (Model S & Model X ) 25% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Average Margin (Model 3 9% 11% 14% 17% 21% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Average Margin (Other vehicles) 25% 27% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29%