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When Micromobility Attacks

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Quantifying the impact of micro vehicles on trips, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and the present value of transportation. Presentation at the second Micromobility Summit, Techfestival, Copenhagen, September 5, 2018.

Published in: Automotive

When Micromobility Attacks

  1. 1. micromobility when attacks
  2. 2. US National Household Travel Survey 2017 VEHICLE TRIPS 220,430,000,000 VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL (VMT) 2,105,882,000,000 mi PERSON TRIPS 371,152,000,000 PERSON MILES OF TRAVEL (PMT) 3,970,287,000,000 mi 2.1 Trillion miles 3.9 Trillion miles
  3. 3. Car Trip Distance Distribution (US) (n=748,918) OneWayTrips(%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% Trip Distance (miles) 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 One-way Trips (%) Lognormal approximation 𝝻 Location parameter 1.65 𝞂 scale parameter 0.95 Arithmetic Mean 8.2 Median 5.2 Mode 2.1 Arithmetic Std. Dev. 7.8 Geometric Mean 5.21 Geometric Std. Dev 2.59 2/3 Min 2.01 2/3 Max 13.46 95% Min 0.78 95% Max 34.81 US Car
  4. 4. Miles/trip (MEASURED) TripsProbability 0 5 10 15 20 0 1.5 3 4.5 6 7.5 9 10.5 12 13.5 15 16.5 18 19.5 Trip Distance Probability Log-normal Approximation NYC Taxi
  5. 5. New York CITI Bike n = 42.7 million Miles/trip TripsProbability Probability Density Functions 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Log-normal Approximations 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Miles/trip (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
  6. 6. New York CITI Bike n = 42.7 million (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN) TripsProbability 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 Miles 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 TripsProbability0 0.024 0.048 0.072 0.096 0.12 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 0.024 0.048 0.072 0.096 0.12 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 ln(Distance)
  7. 7. Boston Hubway n = 3.3 million Miles/trip TripsProbability Miles/trip (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN) Probability Density Functions 0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Log-normal Fit 0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6
  8. 8. Chicago Divvy n = 11.5 million Miles/trip TripsProbability Miles/trip (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN) Probability Density Functions 0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Log-normal Fit 0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6
  9. 9. DC Capital Bike Share n = 5.7 million Miles/trip TripsProbability Miles/trip (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN) Probability Density Functions 0 0.023 0.045 0.068 0.09 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Log-normal Approximations 0 0.023 0.045 0.068 0.09 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6
  10. 10. Zürich E-Bike Sharing Miles/trip TripsProbability Miles/trip (MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN) 0 0.018 0.035 0.053 0.07 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 PDF 0 0.018 0.035 0.053 0.07 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 Log-Normal Approximation Z Bikes
  11. 11. -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2017-07-NE 2017-06-NE 2017-05-NE 2017-04-NE 2017-03-NE 2017-02-NE 2017-01-NE 2016-12-NE 2016-11-NE 2016-10-NE 2016-09-N 2016-08-N 2016-07-NE 2016-06-N 2016-04-NE 2016-03-N 2016-02-N 2016-01-NE 2015-12-NE 2015-11-NE 2015-10-NE 2015-09-N 2015-08-N 2015-07-NE 2015-06-N 2015-05-N 2015-04-NE 2015-03-N 2015-02-N 2015-01-NE 2014-12-NE 2014-11-NE 2014-09-N 2014-08-N 2014-07-NE 2014-06-N 2014-05-N 2014-03-N 2014-02-N 2014-01-NE 2013-12-NE 2013-11-NE 2013-10-NE 2013-09-N 2013-08-N 2013-07-NE <𝝻, 𝞂> parameters Seasonal variance Boston v. NYC 𝞂 𝝻 Boston NYC NYC Boston
  12. 12. Swiss Modal Distributions 0% 8% 15% 23% 30% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 CH 1 CHWalking CH 1 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 2 CHCycling 2 0% 1% 3% 4% 5% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 3 CHSmall moped 3 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 5 CHMotorcycle driver 5 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 7 CHCar driver 7 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0.01.0 3.04.0 6.07.0 9.010.0 12.013.0 15.016.0 18.019.0 21.022.0 24.025.0 27.028.0 30.031.0 33.034.0 36.037.0 39.040.0 42.043.0 45.046.0 48.049.0 51.052.0 54.055.0 57.058.0 60.061.0 63.064.0 66.067.0 69.070.0 72.073.0 75.076.0 78.079.0 81.082.0 84.085.0 87.088.0 90.091.0 93.094.0 96.097.0 99.0100.0 8 CHCar passenger 8
  13. 13. Addressable Market in Trip Distances for Various Modes 0.1mi. 1mi. 10mi. 100mi. 1000mi. 10000mi. WalkUK ZHWalking ikes(NYCCitiBike) -bike(NereZurich) ZHschoolbus ZHCycling ZHTram/metro NYCTaxi CHWalking CHTaxi PersonalBicycle etransport(Uber?) BusinLondon ZHCardriver ZHCarpassenger rlocalbusEngland Taxi/minicabUK USCar CHMicromobility ZHTrain ublictransportUK vanpassengerUK CardriverUK MotorcycleUK ndonUnderground CHCycling ike(max.25km/h) CHTram/metro CHSmallmoped CHOther CHschoolbus SurfaceRailUK ar/Funicular/skilift otorcycle(<50cc) late(max45km/h) Motorcycledriver CHCardriver torcyclepassenger CHBus(Postauto) CHCarpassenger CHBoat CHTruck Bus(longdistance) CHTrain Non-localbusUK assengerAirTravel CHAircraft 2/3 Min 2/3 Max Median 95% Min 95% Max MICROMOBILITY
  14. 14. Car Trip Distance Distribution (US) (n=748,918) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 Lognormal approximation US Car
  15. 15. US Car Trips <31, >30mi. Vehicle Trips Distribution (US) (n=748,918) OneWayTrips(count) 0 10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 60,000,000,000 70,000,000,000 80,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  16. 16. US Car VMT VMT Distribution (US) (n=748,918) VehicleMilesTraveled 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  17. 17. US Car VMT Buckets VMT BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918) VehicleMilesTraveled 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 900,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,100,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1,067,622,603,274 612,861,811,859 425,397,584,867 VMT Distribution (US) (n=748,918) VehicleMilesTraveled 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  18. 18. US Car VMT Buckets VMT BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918) VehicleMilesTraveled 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 900,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,100,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1,067,622,603,274 1,038,259,396,726 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1.1 Trillion miles 1.0 Trillion miles
  19. 19. How Much Does a Mile Cost? PRICING VMT IN NYC $0.00 $3.00 $6.00 $9.00 $12.00 $15.00 $18.00 TRIP DISTANCE 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 $0.50 IRS DEDUCTION Taxi Citibike MICROMOBILIT Y $0.00 $0.75 $1.50 $2.25 $3.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  20. 20. US Revenue Buckets Dollar BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918) PersonDollar-Miles 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 900,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,100,000,000,000 1,200,000,000,000 1,300,000,000,000 1,400,000,000,000 1,500,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 $1,111,051,834,588 $1,408,549,860,197 0 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 Trip Distance (miles) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 $1.1 Trillion $1.4 Trillion
  21. 21. SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL VEHICLES ELECTRIC EARLY, AUTONOMOUS LATE AUTONOMOUS EARLY, ELECTRIC LATE 2026: 40 million units/yr Micromobility market will grow fastest LARGE DISTANCES IN LARGE VEHICLES The Unbundling is Coming

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