Mobile payments
Mobile Business
27 March 2012
Introduction
Mobile Money
 Mobile
banking
                                          Mobile
                                         ticketing
            Mobile
                       Mobile payment
          remittance
                                          Mobile
                                         shopping
                                                      Mobile
                          Mobile advertising
                                                     presence

                                        Mobile Commerce
Different flavors and combinations
  Front end technology             Back-end settlement

         Proximity payment       Electronic wallet
             (e.g. via NFC)




        Mobile phone as POS       Bank account




            SMS / USSD             Credit card




        Mobile internet / apps     Telecom bill
mPayment: just one additional mobile step

  Marketing            Ordering            Distribution         Payment

                   Go / e-mail / fax /
  Traditional                              Go to shop           Traditional
                    phone to shop

 “Normal” web        “Normal” web
                                                              Mobile = POS
Traditional + QR                         Physical delivery
                       QR scan
    or NFC
                                                                   NFC
Mobile presence          NFC
                                           Digital to PC
                                                              SMS / USSD
 mAdvertising        SMS / USSD


  mCoupons         Mobile web / app      Digital to phone    Mobile web / app
Do we need it? Some of the potential gains:
           Consumers                    Merchants
►   Phone always at hand      ►   Lower transaction cost
    (even more than wallet)   ►   Reduced transaction
►   Convenience                   processing time
►   Usability                 ►   Reduced labor costs
►   Facilitates micro         ►   Ubiquitous channel to
    payments                      accept customer
►   More secure                   payments
►   Lower transaction cost    ►   Avoid churn, attract new
                                  customers
                              ►   Increase of electronic
                                  payments
Who’s involved?
A whole eco system


                                 Regulator

                           Card         Technology
                        association/    innovators
                          network

                 Clearing                        Application
                 house /                          vendor
                   Hub
                                Customer

                                                NFC chip
               Integrator
                                  Mobile       manufacturer
                                 operator
                            Payment      Handset
                            network    manufacturer

                               Government
Banks, credit card companies and operators
very active
                            Regulator

                      Card         Technology
                   association/    innovators
                     network

            Clearing                        Application
            house /                          vendor
              Hub
                           Customer

                                           NFC chip
          Integrator
                             Mobile       manufacturer
                            operator
                       Payment      Handset
                       network    manufacturer

                          Government
But also many newcomers

                            Regulator

                      Card         Technology
                   association/    innovators
                     network

            Clearing                        Application
            house /                          vendor
              Hub
                           Customer

                                           NFC chip
          Integrator
                             Mobile       manufacturer
                            operator
                       Payment      Handset
                       network    manufacturer

                          Government
A sample …
Is the technology there
yet?
What do we need for mobile payments to
  happen?
                Enabled
               handsets
                                             User expansion
      Stable eco-            Convenience     promotes usage
                                             scene expansion
        system                & usability

                                                              Positive      Usage
                                                                            scene
                                                   User
                                                 expansion
                                                             feedback     expansion

                                                               Cycle

Scalability of            Trust and
  solutions               awareness                                      Usage scene
                                                                         expansion
                                                                         promotes user
           Standard                   Cost                               expansion
NFC = important enabler
But still issues with:
►   Standardization
►   Interoperability
►   Control (over secure element)
►   Business model
►   Customer awareness
►   Handset availability
►   Regulation
NFC-enabled handsets not yet omnipresent
Mobile handset shipments (million)



                                     1.600                                                                                                   25%

                                                                                                                         1.420
                                     1.400                                                            1.335

                                                                                                                                             20%
                                                                                                                                 21%
                                     1.200                       1.133              1.152
                                                 1.092


                                     1.000
                                                                                                                                             15%

                                       800

                                                                                                              9%                             10%
                                       600


                                       400
                                                                                                                                   301
                                                                                                                                             5%
                                                                                            3%
                                       200                                                                         116
                                                                         1%
                                                         0% 3                 14                 34
                                          0                                                                                                  0%
                                                     2008            2009               2010              2011               2012




                                     All mobile handsets        NFC-enabled mobile handsets           Share of NFC-enabled mobile handsets
NFC might be overhyped

                                                 NFC Payment

                                                     Media tablet


                                                             Location-Aware Applications



                                                                        Mobile application stores
                                                                     QR / Color code




Source: Gartner, Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2011
Not all future scenarios include mPayment
    Four scenarios based on scenario analysis – how will we communicate in 2020
                              Integration of internet and consumer life
             A                           Fully integrated & seamless                        B



                 ‘Full Speed
                                                                  ‘Roller coaster’
                   Ahead’




                                                                                                             Security and privacy
                                                                                            Not in control
In control




                 ‘Speed Limit
                                                                       ‘Gear Down’
                    control’

                                           Fragmented & separated
             C                                                                              D
                       http://www.ey.com/NL/nl/Industries/Telecommunications/telecoms2020
Should you wait?

It may happen sooner than
you think
Internet                                 Mobile



                                                               13%
      30%
                                                                     87%
                              70%

          No Internet              Internet             No Mobile    Mobile


Source: broadbandtrends, Feb. 2012 and ITU, Nov. 2011
Smartphones on the rise




52
                              100 million
                              activated Android devices (Google IO 2011)



                       %      400.000 new Android devices
                              activated per day (Google IO 2011)
Of phones shipped in Europe
in Q1 2011 are smartphones
(IDC, 2011)
                              468 million smartphones
                              shipped in 2011 (expected, Gartner)


                              4 million iPhone 4S’ sold in
                              first weekend (Apple)
97
Of youth (age 12-18) in Europe
     has a mobile phone
                                             %
(Source: EY, compiled from several national studies)
                                                       How many have a
                                                           credit card?
Digital natives are coming
90 71                    %
 mobile subscribers in US and
 Western Europe have a phone
that can access the mobile Web
                                   US consumers likely to use
                                   mobile payments if it were
                                            instant
                                                                                  %
  (half of which already HTML
            browser)


                                 Source: ComScore, 2011
                                 Source: Toluna Survey and Poll Services, and Obopay 2011
Products researched or purchased using a
mobile device?
70%
            62%
60%                         55%             54%

50%                                                        47%
                  42%             40%
40%                                               36%
                                                                 32%
                                                                       28% 29%
30%                                                                              24%         22%
20%                                                                                                      17%
                                                                                       14%         13%
                                                                                                               8%
10%
  0%




                                                Researched             Purchased
Source: JiWire research with WiFi hotspot users, Q1 2011
Also … NFC is more than mobile payments

►   Identification
►   Physical access
►   Time registration
►   Mobile ticketing
►   Car rental
►   Information provider
►   Advertising
►   Medical solutions
►   Games
►   Connecting devices
Again … Should you wait?

It is already
happening
De Lijn              Mobile For
 3 Million            3,5 Million
SMS tickets in 2011   mobile parking tickets
                       (25% YoY increase)
Korea          Japan
        100%
                   9,8 million users
        80%    (10% mobile subscription base)
               Where are they paying?
        60%


        40%


        20%


          0%




                             Source: ComScore, 2011
28%
Total revenue growth 2011
                                          24%
                                 Total payment volume (TPV)
                                             growth in 2011




$   5    billion
eBay revenue originating from
mobile commerce in 2011
                                         $   4    billion
                                Mobile payments volume 2011
What’s ahead?
What’s ahead?




20
                                   $  245 billion        mobile
                                   payment value by 2014 (Gartner, 2011)


                                   40 % of all phones will be NFC
                                   enabled by 2015 (Ovum, 2011)
Countries are expected to launch
NFC services in the coming 18
months                             32,8 % of global m-payments
                                   transactions will be NFC driven by
                                   2014 (IE Market Research, 2010)


                                   $ 74 billion          in NFC
                                   facilitated payments by 2015 (Juniper
                                   Research, 2012)
Some final thoughts
Biggest challenge:
Getting the positive feedback cycle going

        Positive feedback cycle                Negative feedback cycle

User expansion                            Limited user induces
promotes usage                            merchants’
scene expansion                           reluctance adoption



                             Usage                                   Usage
                             scene                                   scene
      User                                     User                 decrease
                           expansion
    expansion                                decrease




                                                                 User does not
                          Usage scene                            increase
                          expansion                              because of
                          promotes user                          limited place of
                          expansion                              usage
Mobility is not in the
future, it is already
happening
NFC is promising
Towards “smart” commerce?

►   Mobile is just one channel
►   We are moving to a multi-channel environment
    ►   Mobile wallet
    ►   Online wallet
    ►   Credit card



                               Moving from mobile
                                payments to a new
                           holistic way of payment
                                         offerings?
Some recent thought leadership
Available via our EY Insights app or online




                               http://www.ey.com/NL/nl/Industries/Teleco
                               mmunications/telecoms2020
Ernst & Young

Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
                                                                  Contact details
Ernst & Young

Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory

About Ernst & Young
Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction
and advisory services. Worldwide, our 152,000 people are
united by our shared values and an unwavering commitment
to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our
clients and our wider communities achieve their potential.

For more information, please visit www.ey.com.

www.ey.com
© 2012 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.

Ernst & Young refers to the global organization of member
firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a
separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK
company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to
clients.




This publication contains information in summary form and is
therefore intended for general guidance only. It is not
intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the
exercise of professional judgment. Neither EYGM Limited nor
any other member of the global Ernst & Young organization
can accept any responsibility for loss occasioned to any
person acting or refraining from action as a result of any
material in this publication. On any specific matter, reference
should be made to the appropriate advisor.

M payments mobile_business_20120327

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
    Mobile Money Mobile banking Mobile ticketing Mobile Mobile payment remittance Mobile shopping Mobile Mobile advertising presence Mobile Commerce
  • 4.
    Different flavors andcombinations Front end technology Back-end settlement Proximity payment Electronic wallet (e.g. via NFC) Mobile phone as POS Bank account SMS / USSD Credit card Mobile internet / apps Telecom bill
  • 5.
    mPayment: just oneadditional mobile step Marketing Ordering Distribution Payment Go / e-mail / fax / Traditional Go to shop Traditional phone to shop “Normal” web “Normal” web Mobile = POS Traditional + QR Physical delivery QR scan or NFC NFC Mobile presence NFC Digital to PC SMS / USSD mAdvertising SMS / USSD mCoupons Mobile web / app Digital to phone Mobile web / app
  • 6.
    Do we needit? Some of the potential gains: Consumers Merchants ► Phone always at hand ► Lower transaction cost (even more than wallet) ► Reduced transaction ► Convenience processing time ► Usability ► Reduced labor costs ► Facilitates micro ► Ubiquitous channel to payments accept customer ► More secure payments ► Lower transaction cost ► Avoid churn, attract new customers ► Increase of electronic payments
  • 7.
    Who’s involved? A wholeeco system Regulator Card Technology association/ innovators network Clearing Application house / vendor Hub Customer NFC chip Integrator Mobile manufacturer operator Payment Handset network manufacturer Government
  • 8.
    Banks, credit cardcompanies and operators very active Regulator Card Technology association/ innovators network Clearing Application house / vendor Hub Customer NFC chip Integrator Mobile manufacturer operator Payment Handset network manufacturer Government
  • 9.
    But also manynewcomers Regulator Card Technology association/ innovators network Clearing Application house / vendor Hub Customer NFC chip Integrator Mobile manufacturer operator Payment Handset network manufacturer Government
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
    What do weneed for mobile payments to happen? Enabled handsets User expansion Stable eco- Convenience promotes usage scene expansion system & usability Positive Usage scene User expansion feedback expansion Cycle Scalability of Trust and solutions awareness Usage scene expansion promotes user Standard Cost expansion
  • 13.
    NFC = importantenabler But still issues with: ► Standardization ► Interoperability ► Control (over secure element) ► Business model ► Customer awareness ► Handset availability ► Regulation
  • 14.
    NFC-enabled handsets notyet omnipresent Mobile handset shipments (million) 1.600 25% 1.420 1.400 1.335 20% 21% 1.200 1.133 1.152 1.092 1.000 15% 800 9% 10% 600 400 301 5% 3% 200 116 1% 0% 3 14 34 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 All mobile handsets NFC-enabled mobile handsets Share of NFC-enabled mobile handsets
  • 15.
    NFC might beoverhyped NFC Payment Media tablet Location-Aware Applications Mobile application stores QR / Color code Source: Gartner, Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2011
  • 16.
    Not all futurescenarios include mPayment Four scenarios based on scenario analysis – how will we communicate in 2020 Integration of internet and consumer life A Fully integrated & seamless B ‘Full Speed ‘Roller coaster’ Ahead’ Security and privacy Not in control In control ‘Speed Limit ‘Gear Down’ control’ Fragmented & separated C D http://www.ey.com/NL/nl/Industries/Telecommunications/telecoms2020
  • 17.
    Should you wait? Itmay happen sooner than you think
  • 18.
    Internet Mobile 13% 30% 87% 70% No Internet Internet No Mobile Mobile Source: broadbandtrends, Feb. 2012 and ITU, Nov. 2011
  • 19.
    Smartphones on therise 52 100 million activated Android devices (Google IO 2011) % 400.000 new Android devices activated per day (Google IO 2011) Of phones shipped in Europe in Q1 2011 are smartphones (IDC, 2011) 468 million smartphones shipped in 2011 (expected, Gartner) 4 million iPhone 4S’ sold in first weekend (Apple)
  • 20.
    97 Of youth (age12-18) in Europe has a mobile phone % (Source: EY, compiled from several national studies) How many have a credit card?
  • 21.
  • 22.
    90 71 % mobile subscribers in US and Western Europe have a phone that can access the mobile Web US consumers likely to use mobile payments if it were instant % (half of which already HTML browser) Source: ComScore, 2011 Source: Toluna Survey and Poll Services, and Obopay 2011
  • 23.
    Products researched orpurchased using a mobile device? 70% 62% 60% 55% 54% 50% 47% 42% 40% 40% 36% 32% 28% 29% 30% 24% 22% 20% 17% 14% 13% 8% 10% 0% Researched Purchased Source: JiWire research with WiFi hotspot users, Q1 2011
  • 24.
    Also … NFCis more than mobile payments ► Identification ► Physical access ► Time registration ► Mobile ticketing ► Car rental ► Information provider ► Advertising ► Medical solutions ► Games ► Connecting devices
  • 25.
    Again … Shouldyou wait? It is already happening
  • 26.
    De Lijn Mobile For 3 Million 3,5 Million SMS tickets in 2011 mobile parking tickets (25% YoY increase)
  • 27.
    Korea Japan 100% 9,8 million users 80% (10% mobile subscription base) Where are they paying? 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: ComScore, 2011
  • 30.
    28% Total revenue growth2011 24% Total payment volume (TPV) growth in 2011 $ 5 billion eBay revenue originating from mobile commerce in 2011 $ 4 billion Mobile payments volume 2011
  • 31.
  • 32.
    What’s ahead? 20 $ 245 billion mobile payment value by 2014 (Gartner, 2011) 40 % of all phones will be NFC enabled by 2015 (Ovum, 2011) Countries are expected to launch NFC services in the coming 18 months 32,8 % of global m-payments transactions will be NFC driven by 2014 (IE Market Research, 2010) $ 74 billion in NFC facilitated payments by 2015 (Juniper Research, 2012)
  • 34.
  • 35.
    Biggest challenge: Getting thepositive feedback cycle going Positive feedback cycle Negative feedback cycle User expansion Limited user induces promotes usage merchants’ scene expansion reluctance adoption Usage Usage scene scene User User decrease expansion expansion decrease User does not Usage scene increase expansion because of promotes user limited place of expansion usage
  • 36.
    Mobility is notin the future, it is already happening NFC is promising
  • 37.
    Towards “smart” commerce? ► Mobile is just one channel ► We are moving to a multi-channel environment ► Mobile wallet ► Online wallet ► Credit card Moving from mobile payments to a new holistic way of payment offerings?
  • 38.
    Some recent thoughtleadership Available via our EY Insights app or online http://www.ey.com/NL/nl/Industries/Teleco mmunications/telecoms2020
  • 39.
    Ernst & Young Assurance| Tax | Transactions | Advisory Contact details Ernst & Young Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About Ernst & Young Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. Worldwide, our 152,000 people are united by our shared values and an unwavering commitment to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our clients and our wider communities achieve their potential. For more information, please visit www.ey.com. www.ey.com © 2012 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ernst & Young refers to the global organization of member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment. Neither EYGM Limited nor any other member of the global Ernst & Young organization can accept any responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. On any specific matter, reference should be made to the appropriate advisor.