Africa has significant untapped iron ore resources that could meet growing global demand. Three scenarios estimate Africa's iron ore production capacity could reach between 47 million tons per year and 575 million tons per year by 2017. However, infrastructure challenges, governance issues, and risks deter investment. This could lead to oversupply and lower prices if production exceeds global import demand. The document examines the potential impact on prices, exports, and policy implications for Australia, Africa, and China under low, medium, and high risk development scenarios for Africa's iron ore industry.
Objective Capital Precious Metals, Diamonds and Gemstones Investment Summit
Focus on Gold: Challenges of gold mining in the US – reopening the Drumlummon Mine in Montana
20 May 2010
by David Wilson - Societe Generale
1. Africa’s iron ore potential &
implications for the global market
Luke Hurst (Economics, Crawford School)
High Impact Public Policy Research in the Asian Century
Crawford School of Public Policy
27 November 2012
4. Africa’s iron ore potential
• 47mt/a (BREE, Guinea & Mauritania by 2017)
• 475-575mt/a (RBC Capital Markets, 32 mines by 2017)
• 300mt/a (Ocean Equities, 16 mines by 2017)
• Obstacles for project development:
o Lack of infrastructure
o Lack of knowledge capital
o Unpredictable governance
o Western banks hesitant to lend
5. Method
• 27 projects (greenfield and expansions)
• 3 risk based scenarios
• Risk index
1. Host operational risk
2. Host political risk
3. Project infrastructure requirements
4. Investor experience
5. Investor-government relations
6. Funding risks
7. Chinese ownership & funding
6. West & central African iron ore scenarios
500
450
400
350
300
mt/a
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
West African exports (BREE 2012)
7. West & central African iron ore scenarios
500
450
400
350
300
mt/a
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Low risk capacity West African exports (BREE 2012)
8. West & central African iron ore scenarios
500
450
400
350
300
mt/a
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Medium risk capacity Low risk capacity West African exports (BREE 2012)
9. West & central African iron ore scenarios
500
450
400
350
300
mt/a
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
High risk capacity Medium risk capacity Low risk capacity West African exports (BREE 2012)
20. Some public policy implications
AUSTRALIA
• Tax revenues
• Employment impacts
AFRICA
• Governance and institutions
CHINA
• Engagement with developing countries