Alluvial tin mining has historically been an important source of tin production but faces challenges of high costs and short boom-bust cycles. Hard rock mining is becoming more competitive as its costs have decreased with improvements in technology and grade, while alluvial mining costs remain highly dependent on ore grade. This supply problem threatens the electronics industry's reliable access to tin.
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Iron Ore trust fund
- Production & industry concentration with specific reference to China
- Future pricing system, transparency issues
-Impact of demand changes: production cutbacks, upstarts and expansions, project pipe-line, changing ownership structure
- A special note on the Chinese iron ore industry
- Medium term outlook
- Summary and conclusion
Author:
Per Storm, Managing Director, RAW MATERIALS GROUP, Sweden
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Iron Ore trust fund
- Production & industry concentration with specific reference to China
- Future pricing system, transparency issues
-Impact of demand changes: production cutbacks, upstarts and expansions, project pipe-line, changing ownership structure
- A special note on the Chinese iron ore industry
- Medium term outlook
- Summary and conclusion
Author:
Per Storm, Managing Director, RAW MATERIALS GROUP, Sweden
ECR Europe Forum '05. Category Management in a limited data environment. Case...ECR Community
Category Management in a limited data environment:
Category Management has been one of the most successful ECR tools over the past decade. At its core is what can be labour-intensive collation of accurate consumer information from many different data sources. But what if some data is missing? Learn how to maximize the benefits of Category Management in a limited data environment.
Jack Lifton från TMR berättar om sällsynta jordartsmetaller (REE).Vilken är efterfrågan och hur stort är utbudet? Presentationen tar upp politik, priser, problem och mer när det kommer till Rare Earth Elements.
Stirred milling machine development and application expansionMining On Top
Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013
26-27 Nov 2013
Stirred milling machine development and application expansion – Graham Davey, Metso Minerals; Senior Process Manager
At the 2010 Prospector's and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Conference, David Lentz and Anthony Mariano gave a presentation on ranking and evaluating light to heavy rare earth deposits worldwide. This is that presentation.
Objective Capital Rare Earths, Speciality and Minor Metals Investment Summit
Focus on rare earths projects around the world
Developing a high grade rare earth deposit in Tanzania
18 March 2010
by Dr Tony Harwood, Montero Mining
ECR Europe Forum '05. Category Management in a limited data environment. Case...ECR Community
Category Management in a limited data environment:
Category Management has been one of the most successful ECR tools over the past decade. At its core is what can be labour-intensive collation of accurate consumer information from many different data sources. But what if some data is missing? Learn how to maximize the benefits of Category Management in a limited data environment.
Jack Lifton från TMR berättar om sällsynta jordartsmetaller (REE).Vilken är efterfrågan och hur stort är utbudet? Presentationen tar upp politik, priser, problem och mer när det kommer till Rare Earth Elements.
Stirred milling machine development and application expansionMining On Top
Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013
26-27 Nov 2013
Stirred milling machine development and application expansion – Graham Davey, Metso Minerals; Senior Process Manager
At the 2010 Prospector's and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Conference, David Lentz and Anthony Mariano gave a presentation on ranking and evaluating light to heavy rare earth deposits worldwide. This is that presentation.
Objective Capital Rare Earths, Speciality and Minor Metals Investment Summit
Focus on rare earths projects around the world
Developing a high grade rare earth deposit in Tanzania
18 March 2010
by Dr Tony Harwood, Montero Mining
It is a professional publication about China’s TiO2 industry published monthly by CCM International Limited, which provides titanium mining companies the cooperation opportunities with Chinese TiO2 producers; presents the competition landscape and the commercial opportunities in China for multinational TiO2 producers; helps TiO2 end users to catch up Chinese TiO2 up-to-date prices and sources the suitable TiO2 from China. The continuous expanding TiO2 industry also brings huge opportunities for investors.
TiO2 China Monthly Report will penetrate into Chinese TiO2 market from a global view, deeply analyse TiO2 industrial chain and manufacturers’ competitiveness and trace the latest industrial hotspots and dynamics, aiming to provide the most valuable information about China’s TiO2 industry.
Objective Capital Precious Metals, Diamonds and Gemstones Investment Summit
Panel Discussion: Outlook for the Precious Metals Markets
20 May 2010
by David Wilson - Societe Generale
Bill Fisher - RX Exploration
David Hargreaves - Fair Trade Gemstones
Objective Capital Precious Metals, Diamonds and Gemstones Investment Summit
Focus on Gold: Challenges of gold mining in the US – reopening the Drumlummon Mine in Montana
20 May 2010
by David Wilson - Societe Generale
Line by environment interaction, yield stability and grouping of test locatio...ILRI
Presented by Kassaye Negash and Kidane Tumsa (National Lowland Pulses Research Program at Melkassa Agricultural Research Center-EIAR) at the First Bio-Innovate Regional Scientific Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 25-27 February 2013
Exploration and discovery: Do frameworks and organisation matter?John Sykes
Framing business complexity in exploration:
First, some things around risk & value complexities…..
Then, some thinking around everyday frameworks and standards…..
Some thoughts on a framework for project-level complexity…
And a simple example: The Sinclair Zone Cesium Mine, Western Australia
Finally, the exploration organisation study that keeps on giving…
A global overview of the geology and economics of lithium productionJohn Sykes
Lithium demand is growing fast, driven by a wide range of battery applications, which are in turn changing the structure of
demand, the lithium supply chain and potentially raw material requirements though much still remains uncertain;
•
Geologically ‘brine’ salars and ‘hard rock’ pegmatites remain the most important lithium deposit types in terms of
production and undeveloped resources, however, there are some interesting emerging sedimentary / clay deposits and
unconventional brine concepts and lithium remains very ‘under explored’ globally;
•
Spodumene pegmatites in Australia are the fastest growing source of supply, however, long term competitiveness may be
dependent on successful downstream integration targeting the battery industry;
•
The concept of a Western Australian ‘Lithium Valley’ is possible, despite high costs, due to the number of quality mines,
proximity to Asia, and the unit reduction in freight costs associated with the low grade spodumene concentrate , in addition
to the ‘cluster effect’ of many minerals businesses, specialists and students;
•
The ‘green’ association of lithium use presents a challenge of ‘strategic coherence’ to explorers and miners impacting
decisions around exploration, mining, investors, stakeholders, and leadership;
•
But remember, we are in an unsustainable ‘lithium boom’ of high prices and high volume growth future long term growth
of the industry is reliant on structurally lower prices, and thus structurally lower costs.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others
Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
Australian gold in 40-years: The need for greenfields explorationJohn Sykes
1. Landmark report looks out 40 years critically includes the impact of resource quality, exploration, and uncertainty;
2. Over the short term (<5 years) production will be dominated by existing mines;
3. Over the medium term (5 10 years) production will come from new mines based on known deposits, however, it is not enough to offset the decline (mainly due to ‘quality’ issues);
4. In the long term (10 40 years) exploration success will play a major role in overcoming much of the looming shortfall in gold production…
5. Consequently, in forty years time almost all of Australia’s future gold production will come from exploration successes…
6. ...even so, production and revenues are set to fall by half over the next 40
7. Also note that in 13 years half of Australia’s gold production will come from mines that are yet to be discovered…
8. …but the weighted average delay between discovery and development is also 13 years
9. For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels over the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance
10. And finally, with sensitivity studies indicating each additional dollar spent on exploration (over the next ten years) generates extra revenue of ~$11.40 over the next 40 years there is incentive for both industry and government to further invest in gold exploration!
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The ‘CET Scenarios’ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (‘Wonderland’); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (‘1984’).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring ‘progress in transition’, ‘horizon scanning’, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Sc...John Sykes
AIMS:
1. Explain what is wrong with strategic planning and why we need scenarios;
2. Explain what scenarios are (and their many variants);
3. Show an example of a scenarios programme: the CET ‘Future of Exploration’ Scenarios
4. MAIN FOCUS: Discuss the benefits of scenarios as a strategic thinking tool
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
Business of greenfields exploration - Sykes & Trench - Apr 2017 - Centre for ...
Supply Shortages In Tin Mine Supply - Sept 2012 - John P. Sykes - Greenfields Research / ITRI
1. Supply shortages in tin mine supply…
…and its effect on the global electronics industry
John P. Sykes, Director, Greenfields Research Ltd (on behalf of ITRI Ltd)
2. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Contents
1 Demand: Tin solder not tin cans
2 Prices: Highest since 1980s ITC Tin Crisis
3 Supply problem: costly alluvial production
4 Supply problem: decline in Asia
5 Supply problem: dependent on other riches
6 Supply problem: dealing with capital costs
7 Conclusions: new mine supply required!
3. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Demand: Tin solder not tin cans
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
4. Demand: Tin solders not tin cans
2010: solder is +50% of demand 1970s: tinplate is ~40% of demand
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
5. China dominates solder demand
Tin Consumption (2009)
Others: 26,600t (8%)
Glass: 7,300t (2%)
Brass/Bronze: 18,300t
(6%) China: 94,400t
(30% of tin &
55% of solder)
Chemicals: 42,600t Solder:
(13%)
171,100t (54%)
ROW: 76,700t
(24% of tin &
45% of solder)
Tinplate: 54,200t (17%)
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
6. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Prices: Highest since 1980s ITC Tin
Crisis
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
7. Tin prices are at 30-year highs
Long-term tin price history Tin price histogram 1900-2011
US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms
40,000 60
Number of years in each price band
35,000
50
30,000 Prices at 30 year highs Recent prices
40 mainly is this
25,000 range
20,000 30
15,000
20
10,000
10
5,000
0 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0 to 5 5 to 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
8. Lead to tin solder substitution has
driven demand & prices
Lead-free solder as a % of global shipments
Lead-free solder Lead solder
100%
90%
80% Conversion to tin
solder drove tin
70% prices
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: IPC
0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Supply problem: Costly alluvial
production
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
11. Alluvial and artisanal important for tin
mining in contrast to other base metals
Copyright & Images:
Greenfields
Research
12. Unregulated alluvial and artisanal
mining occurs in short cycles
Global tin production (Kt) Index of alluvial mining booms
350.0 Malaysia 1958-1987 Thailand 1962-1991
Brazil 1977-2006 Indonesia 1992-20112
300.0 Other Indonesia 2012-2017???
Africa
250.0 600.0
CIS/USSR
Australia 500.0
200.0
?
Bolivia 400.0
?
150.0 Brazil
300.0
?
Peru
100.0 Thailand 200.0
Malaysia 100.0
50.0
Indonesia
0.0
China
0.0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
13. Hard or soft rock: Grade is king!
2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs
Mining Other Approximate grade of
25,000
S.E. Asian alluvial ores
20,000
US$/tonne
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1.0kg/m3 0.8kg/m3 0.6kg/m3 0.4kg/m3 0.2kg/m3
Theoretical change in cost due to changes in ore grade for a
primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery.
14. Hard rock mining costs becoming
competitive with alluvial mining
2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs
Mining Processing Other Approximate grade of
25,000
new hard rock projects
20,000
US$/tonne
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
OP 2.0% UG 4.0% OP 1.5% UG 3.0% OP 1.0% UG 2.0% OP 0.5% UG 1.0%
Open pit mine is a theoretical primary tin, open pit mine in Australia, producing
7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Underground mine is a theoretical primary tin, underground mine in Australia,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
15. Hard or soft rock: Grade is king!
2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs
Fuel Electricity Labour Other
100%
Vulnerable to labour
% breakdown of cost
80% costs
inputs
60%
40%
20%
0%
Alluvial Open Pit Underground
Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia grading 0.2kg/m3, producing
7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery.
Vulnerable to fuel costs
Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, underground mine in Australia grading 1.0%,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, open pit mine in Australia grading 0.5%,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.
16. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Supply problem: Decline in Asia
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
17. Asian countries dominate production,
very few developed world tin miners
Russia
(0.2%)
World Tin Mine Production (2012 est.)
Mongolia
Portugal (<0.1%) (<0.1%)
Peru Egypt (0.1%)
(9.4%)
Nigeria (0.6%) DR Congo
(2.6%) China
Rwanda Myanmar (0.7%)
(1.4%)
(34.5%)
Thailand (0.1%)
Burundi (<0.1%)
Malaysia Laos (0.4%) Vietnam (1.2%)
(1.2%)
Bolivia (6.9%)
Brazil (3.8%) Indonesia
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Australia
(34.5%) (2.3%)
18. Developed versus developing world
labour rates versus fuel prices?
2011, GNI Per Capita (US$) 2007-11 GNI Per Capita
CAGR (%)
60,000 14.0%
Developed world …but developing
50,000 12.0%
labour costs are world labour costs
higher… 10.0% are rising quickly
40,000
8.0%
30,000
6.0%
20,000
4.0%
10,000 2.0%
0 0.0%
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: World Bank
19. Developed nations a safer investment,
important for large capital projects
Country Ranking (of 181) Country Ranking (of 181)
Canada 4th Peru 56th
Australia 5th - -
- - China 71st
USA 10th Brazil 72nd
- - - -
Germany 20th Indonesia 111th
- - - -
UK 25th Bolivia 125th
- - - -
Spain 27th DR Congo 159th
Rankings based on Greenfields Research’s proprietary mining political risk ranking system. The ranking system correlates economic data sets
that cover most of the world’s countries (such as the Transparency International Corruption Index, the World Bank Doing Business dataset and
GDP/land area) with well known mining industry political risk surveys, including the Fraser Institute, Behre Dolbear and ResourceStocks, to get
a system which ranks all countries by their suitability for mining, not just those in the mining industry surveys.
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: Greenfields Research
20. Exchange rates important, a stronger
Rupiah raises marginal costs
Exchange rates (to US dollar)
indexed to 2006
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Chinese Renminbi (CYN)
Bolivian Bolivano (BOB) Brazilian Real (BRL)
Australian Dollar (AUD)
1.15
1.10
Weaker
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90 Stronger
0.85
0.80
0.75
Indonesian Rupiah affects
0.70 marginal costs in tin. A
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
stronger Rupiah means
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
higher long term tin prices
21. Asian mining in decline, replaced by
developed world production
UK (0.1%) World Tin Mine Production (2016 est.) Russia (0.9%)
Germany Mongolia
Canada (0.1%) Morocco Kazakhstan
(1.2%) (0.4%)
(2.1%) (1.8%)
Portugal (<0.1%) Spain
(0.3%)
Egypt
(0.7%) China
Peru Myanmar
(10.6%)
DR Congo (3.0%) (3.1%) (26.2%)
Nigeria (0.5%) Laos (0.4%)
Rwanda (1.2%)
Thailand (>0.1%) Vietnam (1.1%)
Malaysia (2.9%)
Burundi (<0.1%)
South Africa (0.5%)
Bolivia Indonesia Australia
(7.5%)
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Brazil (4.8%) (22.0%) (8.5%)
22. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Supply problem: Dependent on
other riches
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
23. Tin mining is dependent on a wide
variety of by-products
World Tin Mine By-Products (2012 est.)
Antimony Copper Gallium Indium Lead
China Australia & China China China China
Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten Zinc
Brazil, Burundi, China Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Mongolia, Bolivia, China
Nigeria Rwanda Myanmar
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American
Elements, Wikipedia
24. Tin industry uneconomic without by-
products
2016 estimates of revenue shares for tin producing
mines and mine projects
Tin Aggregates Copper Iron Ore Mineral Sands Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten Lead/Zinc
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
25. Tin mining will become more
dependent on by-products
World Tin Mine By-Products (2017 est.)
Indium Iron Ore Lithium
Copper Gallium Lead
Aggregates Antimony Australia, Canada, Australia, Czech Rep.
Australia, China, China, China
Malaysia China China, Germany Kazakhstan
Germany, Germany
Kazakhstan,
Peru, UK
Molybdenum Niobium Silver Tantalum Titanium Zirconium
Tungsten Zinc
Canada Brazil, Australia, Australia, Burundi, Kazakhstan, Brazil
Australia, Canada, Australia,
Burundi, Canada, Congo, Egypt, Malaysia Egypt, Kazakhstan, Bolivia,
Nigeria China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Canada, China,
Kazakhstan, Rwanda Portugal, Russia, Germany, UK,
USA
Spain, UK, USA USA
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American
Elements, Wikipedia, www.made-in-china.com; www.images-of-elements.com
26. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Supply problem: Dealing with
capital costs
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
27. Dominated by small, private
companies and state miners
~39,400t, 13.6%, ~32,000t, 11.0%, ~27,200t, 9.4%,
State/Public, Indonesia Private/Public, Peru State/Public, China
~11,600t, 4.0%, ~10,500t, 3.6%, ~7,125t, 2.5%, Public,
State, Bolivia Private, China Malaysia/Indonesia
~3,500t, 1.2%, State, ~3,200t, 1.1%, Public, ~2,500t, 0.8%, Private, ~2,000t, 0.7%, Co-op,
Vietnam Australia China Brazil
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Company websites, ITRI, Wikipedia
28. Substantial investment required in new
tin supply, bigger companies required
Company Project Capex Capacity Capex Source
(US$M) (t/y Sn) (US$/t/y)
Consolidated Tin Mines Mt Garnet 124.0 3,050 40,700 Scoping 2010
Kasbah Resources Achmmach 167.0 6,880 24,300 Pre-Feasibility 2012
Metals X Rentails 173.2 5,300 32,700 Feasibility 2009
Stellar Resources Heemskirk 108.0 3,900 27,700 Scoping 2011
Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 144.6* 3,700 39,100 PFS 2011
Total & average 716.8 22,830 31,397
Total new mine supply required 2011-15: 70,000t/y
Average capital cost per tonne new capacity: $31,400
Total investment required in new supply: $2.2 billion
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI * Mount Lindsay is a tin-tungsten-magnetite project. The tungsten plant in particular greatly adds to capital costs.
29. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Conclusions: New tin mine supply
needed
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
30. High marginal tin costs, mean high
long term prices
Hard rock High and rising
Alluvial marginal costs dictate
long term prices –
Artisanal (non-alluvial) currently ~$25,000/t,
rising to $40,000/t ???
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
31. Generally rising costs mean that even
floor prices are quite high
Recent price lows versus marginal cash costs
Copper Zinc Nickel Tin
2011 Cash Costs (US$/tonne) Floor (100%)
Median 2,250 922 6,505 8,686 seems to be about
¾ the marginal
10th Decile 4,000 1,530 16,048 13,327
cost for base
metals, currently
Recent price history (monthly average LME 3-months prices)
about $18,000/t,
GFC low 3,108 1,119 9,791 10,465 rising to about
2011 peak 9,854 2,489 28,266 32,464 $25,000/t ???
GFC low versus:
Median 138% 121% 151% 120%
10th Decile 78% 73% 61% 79%
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI, Barclays Capital, Brook Hunt
32. Alternative price forecasts are all high
Price history and forecast scenarios (US$/tonne)
Historical price (real 2010) Central Forecast
Double Dip Scenario Robust Growth Scenario
50,000
45,000 High demand growth,
significant new supply Marginal cost: $40,000/t ???
40,000
required, prices will trends
35,000 towards a high & rising Future price
30,000 marginal cost range: $20,000-
25,000 40,000/t ???
20,000 Floor price: $20,000/t ???
15,000
No demand growth, new
10,000
supply will struggle to
5,000 come on stream, prices will
0 trend towards a high &
rising floor price
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
33. Plenty of projects in the pipeline: time
and money needed to develop them
1 at feasibility stage 90Kt at feasibility stage
4 at scoping
stage 310Kt at
scoping 824Kt as compliant
10 with compliant stage resources
resources
~60 with historical
resources
~3.2Mt as historical
resources
~130 known projects
~4.8Mt of estimated reserves
(USGS)
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI, Greenfields Research, USGS, Infomine, company websites
34. New supply will have to enter the cost
curve lower than marginal alluvials
Operating (2012) These projects
Brownfields currently not
Greenfields economic
New projects
Greyfields need to enter the
cost curve here!
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
35. Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Conclusion
1 Tin is an electronic metal driven by solder demand.
2 30-year price highs are effecting the electronics industry.
3 Alluvial tin supply falling to be replaced by hard rock mining.
4 Declining Asian mining, new supply from elsewhere in the world.
5 Increasing reliance on by-products as grades decline.
6 Future supply will have much higher capital costs.
7 High medium term prices, will encourage new supply on-stream
36. Contact Details:
John P. Sykes
Director, Greenfields Research
john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com
www.greenfieldsresearch.com
Today’s reference:
ITRI Tin Industry Review 2011
Peter Kettle
Manager, Statistics & Market Studies
peter.kettle@itri.co.uk
www.itri.co.uk