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Low cvp+infrastructure+roadmap hydrogen+report

This document discusses future infrastructure requirements for hydrogen refueling stations to support the deployment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles between 2015-2050. It outlines current hydrogen production and distribution systems, which are focused on industrial uses. Future infrastructure will need to support both large original equipment manufacturers and smaller vehicle manufacturers. Refueling station needs will depend on the deployment of different types of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Barriers to deployment of refueling infrastructure include a lack of standards and the high cost of building out networks before significant demand exists. The report provides recommendations to help deliver the needed infrastructure expansion.

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TransportEnergyInfrastructure Roadmapto2050 HYDROGENROADMAP PreparedfortheLowCVPbyElementEnergyLtd CelineCluzel&AlastairHope–Morley JUNE2015
ProjectSteeringGroup AutogasLimited BOCLimited BEAMA CalorGasLtd EDFEnergy ElectricityNetworksAssociation NationalGrid OfficeforLowEmissionVehicles RenewableEnergyAssociation TransportforLondon TransportScotland UKPetroleumAssociation LowCVPProjectManager JonathanMurray, PolicyandOperationsDirector Contractor PreparedbyElementEnergyLtd Authors CelineCluzel AlastairHope-Morley Reviewers AlexStewart MikeDolman BenMadden TransportEnergyInfrastructure Roadmapto2050 HYDROGENROADMAP JUNE2015 Disclaimer Whiletheauthorsconsiderthatthedataandopinionscontainedinthisreportaresound,allparties mustrelyupontheirownskillandjudgementwhenusingit.Theauthorsdonotmakeany representationorwarranty,expressedorimplied,astotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthereport.
3 Acknowledgements TheLowCVPaimsto: Developinitiativestopromotethesaleandsupplyoflowcarbonvehiclesandfuels ProvideinputandadviceonGovernmentpolicy Provideaforumforstakeholderstoshareknowledgeandinformation EnsurethatUKmotor,fuelandrelatedbusinessesarebestplacedtocapitaliseontheopportunitiesinthelowcarbon marketsofthefuture ContributetotheachievementofUKGovernmenttargetsforroadtransportcarbonreduction AutogasLimited BOCLimited BEAMA CalorGasLtd EDFEnergy ElectricityNetworksAssociation NationalGrid OfficeforLowEmissionVehicles RenewableEnergyAssociation TransportforLondon TransportScotland UKPetroleumAssociation TheLowCVP,establishedin2003,isapublic-privatepartnershipthat existstoaccelerateasustainableshifttolowercarbonvehiclesand fuelsandcreateopportunitiesforUKbusiness. AberdeenCityCouncil AirProducts BRC BYD Calorgas CNGFuels CNGServices DearmanEngineCompanyLtd DownstreamFuelAssociation DrivelectricLtd. ENNGroupEurope GasBusAlliance Gasrec GTC IntelligentEnergy Nissan Openenergi Riversimple Scania SGN SMMT TfL Thriev TowerTransit UKLPG UKPN ULEMCo UPS Wales&WestUtilities ProjectSteeringCommitteeWorkshopattendees
4 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
5 Background-a‘TransportInfrastructureroadmap’isneededto complementexistingvehicleandfuelroadmaps Source:AutoCouncilandLowCVP Vehicleroadmaps Transportfuelroadmaps Source:AutoCouncilandElementEnergyfortheLowCVP Inthecontextoftheexpectedtransitiontolowercarbonpowertrains andfuels,theAutoCouncilvehicleroadmapshaveproventobea usefultooltofocusresearch,fundingandpolicy,bringingintoone placetheindustry’sviewsonfuturetechnologyoptions,deployment stepsandcorrespondingpolicydrivers. Tocomplementthesepowertraintechnologiesroadmaps,the LowCVPcommissionedaRoadTransportFuelsRoadmapin2013-14, whichalsoprovedsuccessfulinbringingclaritytothefueloptions availableandmappingtheenablingmilestones. ThisInfrastructureroadmapisthe‘missingpiece’thatwillsupport newpowertrainsandnewfuels.Thisroadmapisallthemore necessaryastheneedsandbarriersfordeploymentofelectric, hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsdiffersignificantlyand refuelling/recharginginfrastructureisakeyenablerforlowemission vehicles. TheobjectivesoftheInfrastructureRoadmapareto: −Assesstheinfrastructureneedsandbarriersfordeploymentof electric,hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsto2050,including impactonupstreamdistribution,aswellastoconsider ‘conventional’liquidfuels −Makerecommendationsfordeliveryofinfrastructure deployment,bothatnationalandlocalgovernmentlevel. Source:ElementEnergy
6 TheInfrastructureRoadmapcoversprivateandpublicinfrastructure, forallmainroadvehiclesandbothcurrentandfuturefuels Depotbasedrefuellingforfleetoperatorsandreturntobase operators Homerechargingforprivateand(some)commercialvehicles Publicforecourtrefuelling/recharging Refuellinginfrastructuretypes Fuels/energyvectorsconsidered Zerotailpipeemissionfuels:electricityandhydrogen ‘Conventional’liquidfuels:gasoline(E5toE20,inlinewith theTransportFuelsRoadmap),diesel,LPG/bio-propane Methane:CompressedNaturalGas(CNG),LiquefiedNG(LNG) andbiomethane Niche/futurefuels:methanol,liquidairandahighbioethanol blend(E85) TheUK’slegallybindingtargettoreducetotalGHGemissionsbyatleast80%(relativeto1990levels)by2050, andtransportcontributestoc.25%ofUKtotalGHGemissions; EUlevelregulations(gCO2/km,AirQualitytargetsandEUROspec),Directives(RenewableEnergy,FuelQuality, CleanPowerforTransport)andTransportWhitePaper Driversforchangeinthetransportenergysystem Vehicletypes Source:ElementEnergy
7 ThedevelopmentoftheInfrastructureRoadmapbenefittedfrominput fromawiderangeofstakeholders,manyconsultedthroughworkshops Developuptakescenarios for%salesofelectricand ICEvehicles InputintoElementEnergy fleetmodel Outputnumbersof vehiclesinthefleetand MJusedperenergyvector ICEvehicles:diesel,petrol,LPG,gasvehicles Electricvehicles:Battery(BEV),Plug-inHybrid(PHEV), Range-Extended(RE-EV)andhydrogenfuelcell(FCEV) Niche/futurefuelsconsidered:E85,methanol,liquidair PrepareInfrastructure Roadmap Reviewexistingliterature onrefuellingand upstreaminfrastructure Industryconsultation withLowCVPFuels workinggroup ReviewbySteering Committee Preparedraftreport Completefinalreport Hoststakeholder workshops Fourdedicatedfuelworkshopswereconducted Workshopthemes:electricity,liquidfuels,methane,hydrogen 38attendeesincluded:Infrastructuremanufacturers,installers, operators,DNOs,energycompanies,fuelsuppliers,OEM/vehicle suppliers,endusers,localgovernment/regulator Reportpreparation Externalinput Source:ElementEnergy vkt:vehiclekmtravelled Seefullreportsfor furtherdetailsoffuel uptakescenarios Scrappagerate,stockandmileageinputsbasedonDfTdata/projections:c.40%increaseinstockand vktby2050(39millionvehicles,740billionvkt);VehicleefficiencybasedonCommitteeonClimate Changemodelling
8 Fourseparatereportshavebeendeveloped–thisreportisdedicated tothecaseofmethaneasatransportfuel Finalreport summarising findingsfromeach energyvectors Fourseparatereportswereproducedtocapturethedifferences betweentheenergyvectors/fuelsunderconsideration This report
9 Structureofthereport Backgroundandstatusquo −Summaryofcurrentproductionanddistributionsystem,andenergyvectorusage −Currentsupplypathways −Currentdispensingtechnologies,geographicalspreadandkeystakeholders Futureinfrastructurerequirementsandbarrierstodeployment −Futurehydrogentransportdemandandproductionpathways;theroleofelectrolysers −Quantificationofrefuellingstationneeds,bylocationand/orvehiclesegment-basedonprojected demand,derivedfromvalidateduptakescenarios −Barrierstodeploymentofinfrastructure-barrierstodeploymentofcorrespondingpowertrainsarenot discussed–uptakeofnewpowertrains/fuelsisthestartingassumption Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Roadmapschematicsummarisingtheabovefindings −Recommendationsfordelivery(national,local,RD&Dneeds,fundingshortfall)
10 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
11 H2refuelling stationwith electrolyser Untilnow,theUKhydrogenindustryhasbeenoverwhelminglygeared towardsmeetingdemandinrefineryandindustrialprocesses Sources:AllfiguresrefertotheUKandarefromDUKES(2014),DECC(2014),Roads2HycomDeliverable2.1and2.1a(2007) Note:SomehydrogenisalsoimportedtotheUK SMR plant Naturalgas H2merchant compressedgas loadingstations Transport demand UpstreamMidstreamDownstream Oil Oil refineries Fossilfuel powerplant Lowcarbon powersource Naturalgas,coal,oil Transmission grid Renewableand nuclearinstalled capacity:23.1GWInstalled capacity: 61.8GW Distribution grid Total cabling: >10,000km Total cabling: >700,000kmTube trailers: >100inUK Large-scaleindustrialproductionSmall-scaleon-siteproduction H2production unit Small distributed demand <1ktpa c.6% Purification Large industrial demand c.94% Producedand consumed on-site,or deliveredvia pipeline c.690ktpa Chloro- alkali By- product
12 Severalnon-OEMmanufacturersaredeveloping hydrogen(fuelcellorICE)-basedmobilityconcepts acrossarangeofsegments,manyalreadyavailable: Whilstsomeofthesevehicleswillrelyonstand-alone depot-basedrefuellinginfrastructure,manywillalso relyontheavailabilityofpublicrefuellingnetworks Thenon-OEMvehiclesoftenhavedifferentrefuelling requirementsversusOEMcars(e.g.differentrefuelling pressures,refuellingfrequency,tanksize,etc.) ThereisthereforeaneedtoensureH2infrastructureis compatiblewithallvehicletypesfromOEMsand othersuppliers Hydrogen-poweredvehicleswillstarttobedeployedinthe2015- 2020period,withanexpectedramp-upbeyond2020 Dependingonthedeploymentrateofpassengercars,othervehicle typesmayplayanimportantroleinincreasingtheutilisationofthe earlyrefuellingstationnetwork Considerationshouldbegiventomakingrefuellingstations compatiblewithawiderangeofvehicles Thisdocumentsummarisesthelikelyinfrastructureneedsfor hydrogen-fuelledvehiclesinthe2015-2050period ArangeofOEMshaveannouncedplanstobringFCEVstomarketin the2015-2018period,aimingtohave1,000’sdeployedby2020: Thesevehicleswillrequireextensiverefuellinginfrastructurein theirtargetmarkets,toofferanattractiveconsumerproposition Theywillbelaunchedinmarketswherethebestconditionsexistin termsofcustomerdemandandincentives,regulatorypushand availabilityofinfrastructure Severalmanufacturersplantocommercialisehydrogenvehiclesinthe comingyears,withassociatedrefuellinginfrastructurerequirements MajorvehicleOEMsSmallmanufacturers Implicationsforrefuellinginfrastructure Hyundaiix35FCEV –launched2014 ToyotaMirai– launched2014/5 HondaFCV– launch2016 Daimlernextgen. FC–launch2017 SymbioFCrange extendedKangoo –launched2014 VanHoolFCbus– launched2013 ULEMCoH2-ICEVan –launched2012 HyPulsionFCforklift –softlaunch2014 Riversimplecar– launchc.2018 SymbioFCrange- extendedtruck– launchc.2017 FC=FuelCell,FCEV=FuelCellElectricVehicle Source:ElementEnergy Expectedtoalwaysrequirestand-alonerefuellingfacilities
13 Hydrogenisproducedatacentralised,largescale plantviaaseriesofavailableindustrialpathways.1 Thehydrogenfuelmustthenbetransportedtoa retailsiteviahighpressuretubetrailer,liquidH2 trailer,manifoldcylinderpack(MCP)orpipeline E.g.AirProductshasusedbothliquidand500bar tubetrailerstosupplyTfL’sLeaInterchangebus depot Hydrogenrefuellingstations(HRS)canbesuppliedbydeliveredor on-siteproducedhydrogen,withtwomaindispensingpressures 1Steammethanereforming(usingmethaneorbiogasfeedstock),methanolreforming,autothermalreforming,chloralkaliby- product,gasification(usingwaste,coalorbiomassfeedstock),centralisedwaterelectrolysis(usingalkalineorPEMtechnology) A)H2producedoff-siteanddeliveredtoHRSB)H2producedon-siteattheHRS Hydrogenisgeneratedon-siteviaaco-locatedH2 productionunit,usingwaterelectrolysis,orsmall scalesteammethanereforming Thisapproacheliminatesallfueldistributioncosts butincreasestheHRScapitalcost E.g.BOCgeneratesH2atAberdeenCityCouncil’s KittybrewsterHRSviaanon-siteelectrolyser Dispensingpressurelevelsavailable Twopressurelevelsavailable:350barand700bar: ‒MostOEMvehicleshave700barH2tanksbutarecompatiblewithboth350and700bar dispensers,withthehigherpressurerequiredforafulltankfill(350baroffersac.60% fill).OEMconsensusfavours700barrefuellingtomaximiserangehowevercertainkey playersconsiderthehigherpressuretonotbeessentialformarketdevelopment ‒Currentlymostothervehicles,e.g.H2buses,forkliftsandsomevansuse350bar technology,toachievelowerrefuellingstationandtankcosts-higherpressuresmaybe requiredinfuturewhenspaceconstrainedvehiclesareconsidered(doubledeckerbuses)
14 Today’searlypublicHRSaregenerallybasedoncontainerisedsolutions; futureHRSwillbemorefullyintegratedwithexistingforecourts Source:AirProducts,www.hydrogen.energy.gov CurrentHRSlayoutsCharacteristicsoftoday’sHRS FutureHRSwillbeintegratedwithexistingforecourts ItisenvisagedthatfutureHRS(e.g.beyond2020)willincreasinglybeintegrated withinconventionalexistingpetrolstations.Furthermore,thecoexistenceofEV andFCEVinfrastructureshouldbeconsidered Generallybasedoncontainerisedsolutions–typicallystandardISOshipping containers Theyareoftenstand-alonestationsondedicatedland HRSequipmentisofteninISO(20ft)shippingcontainers.Overallfootprintof ~150m2dependingonmanoeuvringspaceetc. AlocalH2storeintheformofcompressedgasisgenerallypresent Refuellingnozzleisindustrystandard,safe,reliableanduserfriendly Refuellingtakesasimilartimetoconventionalfuel(3–4minutes) Thisislikelytobethelong- termsolutiononceFCEVsreach commercialisationbutwill requirewelldesignedandfully integratedH2storage, distributionandsafetysystems, aswellasdevelopmentsin nationalregulations Anumberoffuelretailershavealreadytrialledthesesolutions,and integratedstationsarealreadypresentinGermanyandCalifornia UKHRSarecurrentlystand-aloneor ‘hosted’sitesi.e.notfullyintegrated withconventionalforecourts Dispenserisaccessibletovehicleusers, whilehydrogenstorage,compressors etc.aresecuredfrompublicaccess Somesitesuse‘trailerswapping’,where ahydrogentraileractsasanon-site hydrogenstoreratherthanoffloadingto otherstoragetanks
15 EarlyHRSarelikelytobeinthe‘small’range Asvehiclenumbersanddemandgrow,largerstationswithsuperior economicswillincreasinglybedeployed HRSeconomicsarestronglylinkedtostationsizeandloadinglevels, whichcanbeoptimisedbytargetingmultiplevehicletypes ThreetypicalsizesdefinedforHRSHRSeconomicsareheavilyinfluencedby sizeanddemandfromvariousvehicletypes HRScapexdoesnotvarylinearlywithdispensing capacity,assuchcostsperkgaresubstantially higherforsmallstationswiththesame%loading Stationloadingiscriticalindeterminingeconomics: ‒‘Small’stationsrequireveryhighloading/ utilisationtobreakeven,evenwith financialsupporte.g.capitalfunding ‒Largerstationscanbreakevenatmuch lowerloadinglevels Largervehiclesusesignificantlymorehydrogenper daythanpassengercars,andcanmakeauseful ‘baseload’contributiontothehydrogendemandat anearbystation AssuchthereisastrongdrivertoensurethatHRS canmeettechnicalrequirementsofasdiversea rangeofvehiclesaspossible–thiswillensure higherloadfactors(andfavourableeconomics),as wellashelpingtode-riskanyover-relianceona singlevehicletype. However,thismusttakeintoaccountpractical/ operationalconstraintsthatmaypreventcarsand largevehicles(e.g.buses)fromsharingHRS ThesizeofHRSdeployedwillevolveasdemandgrows >1,000kg/dayc.500kg/day<100kg/day Small:Medium:Large:ItisusefultodefineHRS intothreemainsize ranges,basedondaily dispensingcapacity: Anumberofverysmall options(e.g.<50kg/day) mayalsocometomarket HRSsizedistributionforUKH2Mobility infrastructurerollout Source:UKH2MobilityPhase1(publicreport),ForecourtTraderFuelMarketReview(2014) <20cars/dayc.100cars/day>200cars/day Averagecommercialliquidfuelforecourtdispenses 11,400Litres/day,equivalenttoc.300-400cars/day
16 UKactivitiesexclusivelybasedinLondon: TherearefiveoperationalHRSintheUKwithacombinedcapacityof c.1tonne-H2/day,withsevenmoreplannedbytheend2015 †:Notethisdoesnotincludesmall-scaleHRSinBirmingham,Coventry,Glamorgan,IsleofLewis,Loughborough,Nottingham, UniversityofSouthWales.ItdoesnotincludeHRSfundedunderthe2015OLEVscheme(2newHRSand2mobilerefuellers) HydrogeninfrastructureintheUKtoday†KeyplayersactiveinhydrogentransportintheUK Retailers,manufacturers,suppliers, installers,associatedenergycompanies OEMs,vehiclesuppliers,endusers,local authorities Evolutionofhydrogenvehicle/HRSdeploymentsintheUK Eightfullyoperational FCbusesandoneHRS deployedThreenewpublicHRS andc.50newFCEVsto bedeployedinLondon overthreeyears OnepubliclyaccessibleHRS,fiveFC taxis,andafleetofFCpassengercars Onepubliclyaccessible HRSinstalledalongside asupermarket forecourt,afleetofH2 vansandFCEVs FirstpubliclyaccessibleHRS withon-siteproductionof ‘green’H2inSwindon Developmentofnationalrollout plansbegunforH2infrastructure andpassengervehicles TenFCbusesandoneHRS deployedinAberdeen Keymilestones HRScompletedand currentlyoperational HRStobecommissioned in2015 London Illustrative locationsof3 additional stationsto beinstalled in2015 underHyFIVE
17 ManyH2productionpathwaysexistwithvaryingcostsandCO2emission rates–mostoptionsareavailabletotheUKtodayorinthefuture Biogas,CCS&novelroutes H2canbeproducedfromvarious alternativesources,includingwaste gasification,fromanaerobicdigestion, orasanindustrialorCCSby-product Sometechnologieswouldproduce largequantitiesofcheap,‘green’H2if developed,e.g.CCS Industrywillonlyconsiderdeveloping novelpathwayswhenastrong,reliable energysectordemandisestablished Hydrocarbon-basedproduction Themostcommonformofindustrial H2productiontoday Involvesreformingmethaneorother hydrocarbonstoproducesyngasand subsequentlyusingthewater-gas-shift reactiontoextracthydrogen Highlymaturetechnologyallowing low-cost,large-scaleproduction Pathwaycanpotentiallybedecarbon- isedwithcarboncaptureandstorage Waterelectrolysis Maturetechnologybutfurther developmentsneededforwidespread transportuse Allowson-siteproductionatHRS Requiresaccesstolowcostelectricity toachieveaffordableH2costs Usingrenewableelectricityproduces ‘green’hydrogen Potentialforuseinrefineryprocesses ifsufficientlylowcost Technologytype1 1.Distributedwaterelectrolysis 2.Conventionalwaterelectrolysis 3.Coalgasification+CCS 4.CentralisedSMR+CCS 5.IGCC+CCS 6.DistributedSMR 7.ConventionalSMR 8.IGCC 9.Coalgasification LargeproductioncapacityintheUKSeveralsuppliersbasedintheUKTechs.atvariousdevelopmentstages Sourceofgraph:Aportfolioofpower-trainsforEurope:afact-basedanalysis,McKinsey&Co,2011 CCS=carboncaptureandstorage,SMR=steammethanereforming1Assumesaccesstogreenelectricityforelectrolysers (Technicaltargetstoreduce carbonfootprintofhydrogen asatransportfuel)
18 Alackofwell-developed distributionsystemsforhigh- purityhydrogenwillleadto theinitialdominanceofWE usingon-siteproduction Beyond2030,‘green’H2 willincreasingly dominateduetoclimate change/CO2targets. ‘Green’hydrogentransitiontrajectory Likelyproductionmixwillbeofmethane-basedandelectrolytic‘green’ H2inthemedium-term,withmore‘green’sourcesinthelongerterm 1:UKH2MobilityPhase1, publicreport VarioussourcesarelikelytoberelevanttoH2productiongoingforward TargetCO2trajectoryforfuelcellvehicles1 Likelyproductionmixtrajectorythroughtime 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2030202520202015 Share of total production mix 2050 New’green’production* Existingcapacities WE NewSMR *:New‘green’productioncouldincludewastegasification,CCS,etc.Thedevelopment pathwayforthesetechnologieswillstronglyinfluencethe2050productionmix From2015to2030,amixofmethane-basedand‘green’water electrolysishydrogenproductionwilldominate: UKH2Mobilitypresentsaplantoachievealowcarbon trajectoryforthefuel(implyinguseofrenewableelectricity forelectrolysers),whilstensuringthefuelisaffordable (leadingtotheuseoffossilhydrocarbons) ThestrategymatchestheCO2performanceofplug-in hybridsasthegriddecarbonises,whilstidentifyingaleast costproductionmix–leadingtoaroughlyequalmixof methaneandelectrolysisoptions SimilarWelltoWheelperformanceexpectedbeyond2030 Inthe2020-2030period,overalldemandwillexceedexistingsparecapacityanda mixtureofnewon-site/centralisedWEandcentralisedSMRwillbedeveloped,with associateddistributioninfrastructure.ClearpolicywillbeneededtodelivergreenH2 123 1 2 3Awidervarietyofsourcesarelikelytobecome available,e.g.wastegasification,CCSwiththechoice ofsourcebeingspecifictothecostsinspecific locations,ratherthanasingletechnologydominating Asguaranteedpuritybecomesmoreprevalent fromexistingcentralisedsourcesanddemand canjustifyinvestmentinhigh-capacity distribution,thedominanceofWEisreduced from2020,asexistingH2sourcesaretapped
19 Hydrogenrefuellingpointsshallemploycompliant fuellingalgorithmsandequipment Hydrogenpuritydispensedbyhydrogenrefuelling points Connectorsformotorvehiclesfortherefuellingof gaseoushydrogen In2014,theEuropeanCommissionissuedadirectivetohelp harmonisetechnicalspecificationsforhydrogenrefuellingequipment Source:EuropeanCommissionPressReleaseDatabase FromNov2017,allpublicHRSintheEUmustbecompliantwiththetechnicalspecification TheCleanPowerforTransportprogramme,initiatedin2013,aimstofacilitatethe developmentofasinglemarketforalternativefuelsfortransportinEurope Theresulting2014/94/EUdirectiveon‘thedeploymentofalternativefuelsinfrastructure’ aimsto: 1)Harmonisetechnicalspecificationsforrechargingandrefuellingstations 2)Developclear,transparentfuelpricecomparisonmethodologies 3)EnsureMemberStatesdevelopnationalpolicyframeworkstosupportthe deploymentofalternativefueltechnologiesandinfrastructure Clarityonuseof700/350barordual-pressurerefuellingremainsnotfullyaddressedby theDirective,asconformityispossibleat700baror350barpressures ISO/TS20100 GaseousHydrogenFuellingspecification ISO14687-2 HydrogenPurityStandard ISO17268 GaseousHydrogenMotorVehicle RefuellingConnectionDevicesStandard
21 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Futurehydrogentransportdemandscenarios −Hydrogenproductionandtheroleofelectrolysers −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsandbarriersto deployment −Vehicle-specificinfrastructuredeployments −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
22 FCEVuptakehasbeenprojectedtoquantifythehydrogendemandin transportandcorrespondingrequirementsforHRS Twoscenariosforcars&vans, ‘CCCtargets’:FCEVsreach10%marketshareby 2030andZeroEmissionvehiclesreach100%of marketsharebefore2050 ‘Moderateambition’:the2030CCCtargetsare notmet,FCEVuptakerepresents5%ofnew sales;by2050FCEVsrepresent15%ofnewsales butthewidercategoryofEVsrepresent100%of sales AnincreaseofsalesoffuelcellHGVs(mostlyunder7t GVW)to<1%in2020,1%in2030and20%in2050 Anincreaseofsalesoffuelcellbuses1-2%in2020, 5%in2030and50%in2050 VehiclestocknumberswerecalculatedusingElement Energy’sUKvehiclefleetmodel.H2consumptionwas basedonmanufacturerdataandobservationsfrom UKandEUvehicletrials 2015 10% 2030 15% 2020 5% 50% 2050 CCCtargets Moderateambition <1% 20502050 15% 75% 10% 50% 50% 100% PH/REEV FCEV BEV ShareofFCEVlightvehicles relativetootherultra-low emissionpowertrains MarketshareofFCEVcarsandvans(newsales) UptakeofFCEVsismainlyinthelightvehiclesegments <1% SeeAppendixformoredetailonscenariosandsources InconsultationwiththeLowCVPFuelsWorkingGroup,wederiveduptakescenariosfornewpowertrains/fuels,they arepolicyled,typicallybasedonCCCtargets.Scenariosareusedtoforecastinfrastructurerequiredtomatch transportpolicyambitionandestimatethecorrespondingupfrontcostsofthisinfrastructure
23 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Futurehydrogentransportdemandscenarios −Hydrogenproductionandtheroleofelectrolysers −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsandbarriersto deployment −Vehicle-specificinfrastructuredeployments −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
24 Growthinhydrogendemandto2050fromtransportwillrequire significantcapacity,particularlyinlowcarbonproductionroutes Source:UKH2MobilityPhase1publicreport,Roads2HycomDeliverable2.1and2.1a,ElementEnergy 1:Basedon100ktpa(largestcurrentUKSMRplant)2:Basedon70%efficiencyand80%loadfactor Hydrogendemandtodayandin2050 Underthehighuptakecasehydrogendemandfortransportwillexceedexistingproductioncapacityinthe2030s ‒Existingproductioncapacitystandsatc.690kt/yearofwhich650kt/yearisdedicatedtousebyheavy industry,leaving41kt/yearthatisdistributedbytubetrailer ‒Totaldemandfromtransportby2050equatestoc.2,300kt/yearunderthehighuptakescenario Thisadditionaldemandpresentsasignificantchallengeintermsofbothproductionanddistributioncapacity: ‒Aquadruplingofexistingproductioncapacitywouldberequired:additionalproductionisequivalenttoc.23 largeSMRplants1,orc.15GWofgrid-connectedelectrolysers2 ‒Ifthishydrogenwasallproducedcentrally,thiswouldlikelyrequirearound2,000tubetrailers,basedon existingtechnology(1.1tpertrailer,500bar)andtwotripsperday,comparedto<100trailerstoday. ‒Alternatively,higherdemandcouldattractlargegascompaniestodeploycentralisedliquefactionfacilities anddevelopliquidhydrogenlogisticsnetworksbenefittingfromgreatervehiclecapacity(c.3tpertrailer) ‒Thecaseofelectrolysisproduction(whichcanbecentralisedoron-site)isdetailedonthenextslide Projectedgrowthinhydrogendemandforuseintransport(Highuptakecasereachingaparcofc.10millionvehiclesby2050) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 3 Hydrogendemand(ktpa) 2015 2,300 194 2025 56 205020302020 690 Demandfromlightvehicles Demandfromheavyvehicles Existingmerchantdistributioncapacity Existingproductioncapacity
25 ExpecteddevelopmentofelectrolyserapplicationsthroughtimeItisexpectedthatgrowthinelectrolyser numberswillbeledbyanumberof applications: ‒ThecommercialisationofFCEVsinthe 2015-2025period,leadingtoademand forhigh-purity,lowcarbonH2 ‒Othermarketsforelectrolysismayopen inthepowertogasandchemicals sectorsinparalleltotransport Growthinelectrolysisisexpectedassumingtherightconditionsaremet On-siteelectrolysis(asopposedtocentralisedproduction)islikelytodominateinshorttermasthereisabettermatchwiththescale ofdemandatrefuellingstations.Groupsofon-siteelectrolyserscanprovidegridservicesthroughpooling/aggregation Inthemediumterm,choiceofon-siteversuscentralisedproductionwilldependoneconomiesofscale,accesstolowelectricity pricesversusdistributioncostsandpossiblecolocationwithotherdemands(e.g.powertogas,pre-combustioncarboncaptureand storage) GreenH2couldalsodisplaceconventionalH2inrefineryprocessesifavailableatsufficientlylowcost Source:DevelopmentofWaterElectrolysisintheEuropeanUnion,FCHJU,2014 Accesstolow-costelectricity Abilitytoaccesspaymentsfromenergynetwork operatorsfromprovisionofgridservices Optimisedeconomicsarekey Improvementsincapex,systemsize,efficiencyandlifetimewillbe requiredtoimproveoveralleconomics TheseincrementalchangeswillbekeytothewidespreadrolloutofWE Improvementsinperformanceandcapexalsorequired 1 2 Oncecommerciallyproven,H2fromwaterelectrolysis(WE)isexpected toseesignificantgrowthto2030,driveninitiallybythetransportsector
26 Variableoperatingcosts,i.e.electricityinputcostsmakeupthelargestportionofthelevelisedcostofH2production Themaincomponentofthecostofhydrogenproductionfrom electrolysisisthevariableelectricityinputcosts Thecostofhydrogenproductionismadeupofanumberofcomponents,dominatedbyvariablecosts Capitalcosts(capex) Allcapitalcosts(includingfinancecosts) spreadovereachkgofH2delivered Fixedoperatingcosts(fixedopex) Includesservicing,maintenance,insurance, landrentetc. Variableoperatingcosts(variableopex) Dominatedbyelectricitycost,butalso includeswaterfeedstock Coststructureisdominatedbyvariable costs2.Lowelectricitypricesarerequired tobecompetitivewithpetrol/dieselona perkmbasis,whichisapproximately £7/kgequivalentincludingtheHRS 1MWalkalineWEsystem2015costsfromFCHJUelectrolyserstudy(2014):capex=£760/kW,opex=£27/kW(excludesstackreplacement),electricitypricerange= £0.05-0.11/kWh(lower-boundcorrespondstoelectrolyserprovidinge.g.gridbalancingservices,etc.orprivatewireconnectiontoarenewablesgenerator,upper-bound correspondstousingretailelectricityprices),interestrate=7%,lifetime=15years,WEconsumption=55kWh/kgH2,utilisation=80%,excludesredundancycosts Only4%ofexistingglobalH2production(mainlyforindustrialuse)isbasedonWE,1duetothehighercostsofWEinmostmarkets comparedtoalternativese.g.SMR,orindustrialby-products Morerecently,increasingdemandforlowercarboncontentandhigherpurityH2fortransportapplicationsisleadingtoincreased demandforH2fromWE(whichproducesverypureH2,canbedeployedon-site,andcanbepoweredbyrenewableelectricity) ThisnewdemandtiesinwellwiththeemergenceofWEasasolutionforenergystorageandgridbalancingapplications NewapplicationsforelectrolyticH2areemerging Source:ElementEnergyanalysis1IEA(2007),2Thisassumedawell-utilisedelectrolyser.Asutilisation decreases,capexandfixedoperatingcostsbecomealargerproportionoftheoverallcostofH2produced 1 2.80 6.10 0.20 0.20 0.703.70 7.000.70 Lowelectricitycost(5p/kWh) Highelectricitycost(11p/kWh) FixedopexCapexVariableopexIllustrativeH2productioncostfromwaterelectrolysis,£/kg
27 TheeconomicsofH2fromelectrolysisareheavilydependentonthe abilitytoaccessaffordableelectricityandtoprovideservicestothegrid Source:DevelopmentofWaterElectrolysisintheEuropeanUnion,FCHJU,2014 2030H2costatthenozzlefortransportapplicationsintheUK IntheUK,twomainwaystolowervariablecostscanbeenvisaged: Reducingthecostofelectricitypurchased,throughe.g. avoidingdistributionnetworkcharges–thiscanbeachieved throughconnectingtheelectrolyserdirectlytoarenewable generator,withoutgoingviathedistribution/transmissiongrid Accessingpaymentsfromthegridoperatortohelpbalance thegridbystoringenergyattimesofhighproduction/low demand,orprovidingfrequencyresponseservices–theH2 producedfromenergystoragecanbeusedfortransport,re- electrifiedviaafuelcell,orinjectedintothegasgrid OptionsforminimisingdominantvariablecostsGridservicesimpact 2030H2productioncostinGermanyunderfull-andpart- loadoperatingstrategies,offeringbalancingservices Impactofoff-gridconnectionforelectrolyser Savingsfromusingaprivatewire connectioncanleadtoattractive economicsvs.SMRin2030 Additionalsavings(e.g.c€1/kg) canbemadefromofferinggrid balancingservices–providedthe rightbalancingpaymentsregime isinplace ResultingH2economics 2
28 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Futurehydrogentransportdemandscenarios −Hydrogenproductionandtheroleofelectrolysers −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsandbarriersto deployment −Vehicle-specificinfrastructuredeployments −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
29 EarlypubliclyaccessibleHRSarelikelytorequirepublicfunding,beyond 2020HRSwillofferincreasinglyattractiveinvestmentpropositions FCEVcostsarelikelytobehigherthandieseland plug-invehiclesuntil2ndgen.in~2020orbeyond FCEVcarsalesof100s-1000sexpectedbefore2020 Basedoncurrentuptake,pre-2020deploymentsare likelytobeconcentratedinmajorurbancentres HRSdeploymentslikelytobe10sofrelativelysmall stations,withlowutilisationinearlyyears Vans/captivefleetvehiclescouldhelpprovideabase loaddemandforHRS.Locationsofthesevehicleswill bedrivenbylocalcustomerdemand FCEVpassengercarrolloutwilloccurslowlypre-2020 Pre-2020HRSarelikelytorequirepublicfunding HRSinvestmentswillberequiredearlyinorderto ensureearlyFCEVshaveaccesstohydrogen,despite challengingeconomicsofsmall,under-utilisedHRS Inmostcases(excepte.g.heavily-loadedcaptive fleetHRS)European,nationalorregional governmentinterventionwillberequiredtobridge thefundinggap Arangeoffundingsourcesisavailable–nextslide Post-2020,HRSwillofferimprovingeconomics AsFCEVnumbersrampuppost-2020,larger,more profitableHRScanbebuilt Withmorevehiclesprovidinghigherloadfactors, theseHRSwilloffermorefavourableeconomics Atthispoint,acommerciallysustainablerolloutis possible,withincreasinginterestfromexisting petrolstationoperatorsornewentrants. Fundingnolongerneededonaperstationbasis AB Source:UKH2MobilityPhase1report
30 Arangeofpublicfundingsourceswillsupporthydrogenrefuelling infrastructuredeploymentsinthepre-2020period FundingbodyDescriptionFundingrateTimescales FCHJU (FCH2JU) Public-privatepartnershipbetweenECand industry,toadvancethecommercialisationof hydrogenandfuelcells Upto70%ofprojectvalue underHorizon2020 Annualcallsforproposals 2014-20 EU StructuralFunds EUfundsforencouragingdevelopmentacross arangeofthematicobjectives(total ~€10.7bn2014-2020fortheUK) Upto60%ofprojectvalue Annualcallsforproposals 2014-20 EUTEN-T/CEF Funding Fundingtoimprovekeytransportcorridorsin Europe,acrossarangeofmodes(total €26.3bn2014-2020acrossEurope) Variesupto50% dependingontypeof project Annualworkprogrammes 2014-2020 UKGovernment UKGovernmentUltra-LowEmissionsStrategy (£500m)includesfundingtosupportH2 infrastructureintheUK(announcedOctober 2014) Initialfunding:£11minc. newHRS(£7m),upgrades (£2m)andvehicles(£2m) •First£5.5mcall:closed 6thMarch2015 •Futurecallsuncertain InnovateUK UKGovernment-runbodytohelpfund innovationinarangeoftechnologyareas Upto50%ofprojectvalue (60%forSMEs) Regularcallsforproposals Someuncertaintyremainsaroundtheendofpublicsupportbeyond2020 MultiplefundingsourcesareavailabletosupportnewrefuellinginfrastructureintheearlyyearsofFCEV commercialisation,upto2020,howeverbeyond2020itisunclearwhichsourcesoffundingwillberenewed Theremaybeaneedtoreviewpublicfundingaround2018,toevaluatetheneedforfunding/policies/other supportmechanismsbeyond2020andensurethatadequatesupportisinplaceforhydrogentransport commercialisationtocontinuebeyond2020 Source:ElementEnergy
31AD=Anaerobicdigestion BarrierDescriptionExamplesolution Costand reliabilityofHRS Today’sHRSareproducedinlowvolumes, withbespoke,lowvolumecomponents. Reliabilitynotyetequaltopetrolforecourts Introductionofseriesproductionandstandardised designs Reducedcostandstandardisationof compression/pre-coolingcomponents Mobileback-upstationstogivenetworkredundancy Customer experience Consistentcustomerexperiencee.g.‘lookand feel’ofstations,easeofpayment,pricingetc. notyetestablished Industry-agreedguidanceforcustomerexperience Appstohelpnavigatesparseearlynetwork Regulatoryand approvalsprocess Regulatoryregimesoftendifferbetweensites, withnostandardisedapprovalsprocessyet defined IntroductionofEU-wideregulationsforsafedesign ofHRS Standardisedandstreamlinedapprovalsprocesses Safetyrestrictions Statichydrogenstorageregulationsrestrict sizingofrefuellingstations AmendCOMAH(andother)regulationstoreflectthe needsofthehydrogentransportsector Stationsiting Challengingtofindsuitablesitesinspace- constrainedurbanareas Developmentworktoreducestationfootprints Involvementoffuelretailers/sitehostsrequired H2quality assuranceand metering QualityassuranceprocedurestomeetISO- definedpuritylimitsnotyetfinalised AccurateH2fuelmeteringtechnologyis immature Developmentofstandardised,low-cost,in-linefuel qualitymeasurementtechniques SimplifiedH2purityregulationsfromOEMs Volume-producedH2meteringtechnology Thehydrogensectorisworkingtoaddressseveralbarrierstoallow thetransitionfromdemonstrationactivitiestoacommercialrollout
32 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Futurehydrogentransportdemandscenarios −Hydrogenproductionandtheroleofelectrolysers −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsandbarriersto deployment −Vehicle-specificinfrastructuredeployments −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
33 H2demand(ktpa): Passengercars-fullnationalcoverageforhydrogenrefuellingfor carsisexpectedby2030,tosupportincreasingFCEVnumbers TotalFCEVsinthevehicleparcbeyond2020 Source:UKH2MobilityPhase1publicreport,DECC2050pathwaysanalysis Thousand FCEVs 218-3465-130340-1300 First10-15HRS deployedin2015 Gradualramp-upto 65by2020before furtherdeployments Likelymostly‘small’ (<100kg/day)– HRSsupportedby publicfunding Dominatedbystand- aloneHRS,some forecourtintegration 2015-2020 Ramp-uppost-2020 with2ndgen.FCEVs >300HRSdeployed by2025 Shifttolarger, profitablestations Shifttoforecourt stationsandmarket entrybymajor retailers 2020-2025 Furthermass-market vehiclegrowth Rapidrolloutof large,forecourt- integratedHRS Fullnational coverageachieved by2030,with>1,000 HRSdeployed Interventionto ensuresufficient greenH2in productionmix 2025-2030 Continuedgrowthin linewithFCEVsales, whichareexpected tomakeup20-50% ofthevehicleparc by2050 Hydrogena ‘standard’offerat majorityofrefuelling stationsduringthis phase 2030-2050 4,300 180680 16,800 3501,400 205020252030 ModeratescenarioCCCtargetscenario 2 2020
34 First65HRSforpassengercarsdeployedby2020 Initially,OEMvehicleswillnotbeavailableinallshowrooms.Instead,vehicleswillonlybemadeavailablefromafew strategicallychosenareaspredominantlyinSouthEastEngland Geographicstrategyforfirststationsnotyetfinalised,thoughfocusonSouthEastisexpectedgivencurrentHRSdeployment trendsandhighcostsofsupportingsmallnumbersofvehiclesacrossnationaldealernetwork SomecoverageofmajorroadsandsecondaryurbanclustersasHRSnumbersgrow–‘primitive’nationaldrivingby2020 >300HRSacrosstheUKby2025 Allmajorroadsandmajorcitiescoveredby2025 Coveragetoenable‘close-to-home’refuellingfor50%of thepopulation,aswellaslong-distancetravel >1,000HRSacrosstheUKby2030 FullUKcoverage,definedas‘close-to-home’refuelling forthewholeUKpopulation,includingless-populated regions Source:UKH2MobilityPhase1,publicreport,industryinputatworkshopinMarch2015 2025illustrative 2015-2020 Areascoveredby HRSdeployedin: 2021-2025 2026-2030 2015-2020 Areascoveredby HRSdeployedin: 2021-2025 2026-2030 ~330~1,150 2030illustrative Theinitialfocusforthepassengercar-ledHRSrolloutislikelytobedense urbancentres,withrapidexpansionbeyond2020totherestofUK
35 Vans-useofpassengercarstations,withasmallnumberof dedicatedHRSatdepotsby2030 Growthinhydrogenvansexpectedbeyond2025asmorevehiclesbecomeavailableandpricesdrop MostH2vansdeployedin relativelysmallnumbers, reliantonfullypublic infrastructure AdditionalH2vanoptions likelyavailable,e.g.from OEMsgreaterpenetration amongstfleetoperators Ascostsapproachdiesel parity,rapidgrowthin adoptionofH2vansin applicationsthatcannotbe metbybatteryelectricvans 2015-20202020-20252025-2050 UseofpublicHRSpreferableto provide‘baseload’H2demand Somevanscurrentlyrequire 350barrefuelling–dual- pressureHRSmaybeneeded wherethisisjustifiedbylocal vehicledemand Avoiddepot-basedrefuelling wherepossible,deploying vehiclesinfleetsabletouse theemergingpublic infrastructure Maximisepublicavailability 2015-2020 Increaseddeploymentsof vans,particularlydrivenby urbanairqualityrestrictions Continueduseofpublic refuellingwherepossible Emergenceofdepot-based refuellingwhereneededfor operationalreasonsandfor largefleets Potentialshiftto700bartanks reducingtheneedfordual- pressurestations 2020-2025 Widespreaddeploymentof hydrogenvans StrongutilisationofHRSby carsreducesimportanceof non-depotrefuellingforvans (i.e.baseloaddemandis alreadypresent) Useofdepot-basedfuelling wherevermoreconvenient forfleetoperators 2025-2030
36 H2demand(ktpa): Buses(+trucks)-significantnumbersofdepot-basedHRSare expectedby2030,likelyfocusedinmajorurbancentres TotalFCEVbusesandHGVsintheUKfleet Numberof HGVsandbuses 31023440 Uptoc.5depot- based350barHRS withuptoc.1tpd Unlikelytobe publiclyaccessible Locationsdrivenby localpolitical ambitionandair qualitytargets Limited demonstrationsof H2lighttrucks 2015-2020 Furtherdeployments ofe.g.20buses(1-2 routes)inleading cities.1depotHRS percity(~1tpd) Reducedpublic fundingforrefuelling infrastructure IncreasinguseofH2 inlighttrucksto complementEVsfor longerdutycycles 2020-2025 Multipleroutes usingfuelcellbuses inleadingcities Larger~2-5tpdHRS indepots Novelengineering solutionsrequired fortheselarger depots GrowingroleforH2 inlargertrucks,likely usingdepotbased refuelling 2025-2030 Hydrogenbecomes oneofthedominant fuelsforbuses alongsideother ULEVpowertrains Widespread availabilityofhigh- capacity350barHRS developedindepots acrossthecountry Widespreaduseof H2intrucks 2030-2050 130,000 8,0003,000Low100s 2020202520302050
37 Forklifts-theforkliftHRSmarketislikelytogrowrapidlybeyond2020, providedthetechnologycancompeteoneconomictermsintheUK Growthinhydrogenforkliftsexpectedbeyond2025asmorevehiclesbecomeavailableandpricesdrop Smallnumberofdeployment projectsto2020totestthe cost-effectivenessoffuelcell forkliftsintheUKmarket Iffuelcellforkliftscanprove theircost-effectiveness relativetoelectric/hybridin theUKmarket,deployments inlargernumberswilloccur Continuedrolloutof hydrogenforkliftstoexisting customers,untilalltheir majorlogisticcentreshave beencovered 2015-20202020-20252025-2050 Trialfleetsusing350bar indoorHRS,capacitiesupto 50kg/day(c.25vehiclesper site) Likelyfocusedonmajor logisticaloperatorsinstrategic locationswherebattery technologycurrentlyinuse– uptoc.10sites USdeploymentssuggestfocus isonlargestsitesinitially, whereeconomicsaremost favourable 2015-2020 Indoorrefuellingwith capacitiesuptoc.100- 200kg/day(uptoc.100 vehiclespersite) Focusedonmajorlogistical operationsinstrategic locations(e.g.ports,large retailerdistributioncentres, airports,etc.)–likelystarting withexpandedfleetsatinitial trialsites,with10’sof additionaldeployments beyondthat 2020-2025 Likelylow100’sofsites suitableintheUKwithsimilar specs(i.e.100-200kg/day)by 2030 Beyond2030,ascostsstartto competewithincumbent technologies,e.g.gasor diesel,customersinlocations withloweroperatinghours andfewervehicles–maybe indoorsoroutdoorsandcover rangeofcapacities 2025-2030
38 Source:H2TINA(2015).Costs=HRScosts80kg/day:£0.8m(2012),£0.4m(2025).500kg/day:£1.4m(2012),£0.7m(2025). 1000kg/day:£2.4m(2012),£1.3m(2025).Nocostreductionfor2030&2050. 20302025 £400m-£700m1 £6,750m 2050 £50m£180m 2020 Approximatecumulativepublicinfrastructureinvestment required(stationcapitalandcivilscostsonly) Productionanddistributioncapacityhasnotbeenconsideredwhenestimatingoverallstationnumbers. Investmentneedsinhydrogenstationsareexpectedtobeupto£700m by2030,risingsignificantlyto2050toservealargeUKvehiclefleet 1LowerboundbasedonUKH2MobilityPhase1report,assuming1,150stationsby2030.UpperboundbasedonHRScostdatafromH2TINA 65HRSc.250HRSc.700HRSc.6,000HRS Marketdriven/private investment Earlymarket–somesupportto investmentlikelytobeneeded
39 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
40 Basicnationalcoverage Public accessHRS#’s First65‘small’HRS HDVdepots Pressure 350bar Van/smalltruckdepots Indoorforklifts350bar Nextc.250‘medium’ and‘largeHRS Nextc.700‘medium’ and‘large’HRS Continuedgrowth basedondemand 700barSAE-compliantfuellingforcars.HRS investorsencouragedtomake350barH2available tosupportothervehicletypeswhereneeded Upto5additionalc. 1t/daydepot-basedHRS Emergenceofmulti-tonne/daydepotsinmajor urbanareas,coveringmultiplerouteseach Nationwidedeployment oflargebusdepots GradualgrowthinindoorHRSasmarketdevelops, movingfromsmall(<50kg/day)tolarge(>100kg/day) Conversionofmultiplelargelogisticscentres frombatteriestofuelcellswithindoorlargeHRS TheH2infrastructureroadmapreflectsthediverserefuellingneedsof differentvehicletypesandtheuncertaintyaboutthespeedoftherollout Location 20152050202020302025 Fullnationalcoverage Dashedlinesrepresent highuncertainty Majormilestone /enabler Productioncapacitylargely forindustryapplication Providebaseloadtounderutilisednetworkinearlyyears H2supplyand logistics c.3ktpa Production capacity Transport demand Provisionofnewcentralisedcapacity tosupporton-sitedeployments 2015 production capacity exceeded c.190ktpac.2.3Mtpa Increasingforecourtintegration/decreasingstand-aloneHRS Limiteduseofdepot-basedrefuelling wherecost-effective/convenient HRS:hydrogenrefuellingstation Cars Vans HDVs Thousandvehicles Projectionsarebasedonpolicy- leduptakescenariospresented onpage22 Datasupportedquantificationof infrastructurerequirements Hydrogenvehiclestock 4,200- 16,800 750- 3,000 130 680- 1,400 100- 200 8 180- 350 30-60 3 2 <1 <1 Infrastructureroadmap 2050202020302025 c.£40mc.£180m£400-700mc.£6,800m
41 Industryandgovernmentwillneedtoworkcloselytosecurethe deploymentoftheearlypublicHRSnetworkandhydrogenvehicles SecuringdeploymentoftheearlypublicHRSnetwork1 AcertainnumberofHRS(e.g.65setoutbythe H2Mobilitystrategy)islikelytobeneededtomeetthe needsoftheearliestcustomersandtocontinueto attractOEMstotheUK LowutilisationmeansthattheseearlyHRSwillneed publicfundingtoattractprivateinvestment HRSinvestorswillalsorequireconfidencefromvehicle suppliersonthetimingandambitionofvehicle deployments Customerincentivesarelikelytobeneededto encourageearlyvehiclesalesasOEMstransitionto lowercostsecondgenerationvehicles Thenetworkwillalsoneedtoofferaconsistentandhigh qualitycustomerexperience,intermsofthestation ‘lookandfeel’,easeofuse,paymentmethodsetc. Source:ElementEnergy Recommendations CentralGovernment:Providefinancialsupport toearlyHRS,usingfundingconditionstoensure highqualityuserexperienceandcoherent geographicstrategy.Providesupporttovehicles throughexistingULEVincentives LocalGovernment:Helpprovide‘baseload’ demandtopublicHRS(e.g.FCEVprocurement forpublicfleets)andmakesitesavailablefor refuellingstationswherepossible OEMs:Providetransparencyonnumbersand locationsofvehicledeployments(asfaras possible)tomaximiseconfidenceofHRS investors HRSoperators/suppliers:Workcloselywith vehiclesuppliersandtheircustomerstoensure thatHRSsitingandspecificationsmeettheir needs
42 Ensuringinfrastructureiscompatiblewithallvehicletypesandpublicly accessiblewillmaximisestationutilisation MaximisingutilisationofearlystationsCoordination 23 Asthenetworkgrows,coordinationofHRSsitingis likelytobeneededtooptimisecoverageand customerconvenience Coordinationisalsolikelytobeneededoncross- cuttingtopicse.g.securingdeploymentsof‘green hydrogen’productioncapacity,meteringandbilling, progresstowardsfullyforecourt-integratedstations IfuseofstandaloneHRScontinues,HRSoperators shouldworkcloselytodefineaconsistentapproach tositingand‘lookandfeel’toallowdriverstofind andusetheinfrastructure Recommendations AllH2stakeholders:Identifyanappropriateforumto allowdiscussionofthesecoordinationactivities,andto presentanalignedUKstrategyinoutreachto internationalOEMstomaximiseappetitetobring vehiclestotheUK Earlynetworkislikelytouse700barrefuelling, basedonrequirementsofOEMpassengercars Othervehicletypes(e.g.vans,smalltrucks) currentlyuse350bartankswhicharenot compatiblewithhigherpressuredispensers Theuseofdual-pressurestations(700/350bar) allowspublicHRStomeetrefuellingdemandsof thesevehicles,increasingearlyusagewhere demandexists Fleetvehicleusersshouldalsobeencouraged tousepublicHRSratherthandepotsolutions wherefeasibletofurtherincreaseutilisation Recommendations HRSinvestors:Workwithvehiclesuppliersto identifyneedsfordual-pressureHRSsites Localgovernment:Encouragefleetstationstobe publiclyaccessibleforprivatecustomerswhere feasible(e.g.throughplanningsystem) Source:ElementEnergy
43 Existingregulationsshouldbeamendedtoharmonisetheplanning approvalprocess,therebystreamlininginfrastructureinstallation Sitingandplanningprocess4 LackofguidanceonHRSsafety requirementscanleadtoplanningdelays andinconsistentuserexperience Transitionfromstandalonetoforecourt- integratedsiteslikelytowards2020 WorktoincludehydrogenintheBlue Book1isunderwaytorepresenthydrogen, inparticularaddressingelectrical hazardouszonesandsafetydistances, givingclearguidanceforusebydevelopers andpetroleumofficersindesigningand approvingHRSonforecourts Recommendations LocalAuthorityplanningteamsand regulatoryauthorities:Supporttheapproval ofintegratinghydrogeninfrastructureinto existingforecourts;produceguidance documentsforstandaloneHRS 1NationalGuidancedocumentjointlypublishedbytheEnergyInstituteandAssociationforPetroleumand Explosives(APEA)usedtoassessandsignoffthesafetyofnewforecourtinstallationsandupgrades Innovationopportunities5 ReducingthecostofHRS,H2production anddistributionandvehicleswillbe requiredtoallowmass-market deployments QualityassuranceofH2(lowercost analysis,continuousmonitoringetc.)needs tobefurtherdevelopedandstandardised Engineeringsolutionsarerequiredforlarge scaledepotrefuellingbeyondcurrentfleet sizes(e.g.c.100busdepotrequiringc.2 tonnes/day) Fullintegrationofwaterelectrolysersinto thegridwillrequirefurthertrialsof technicalandcommercialarrangements Recommendations Innovationfundingbodies:Workwithindustry todefineclearinnovationneedsthatcanbe deliveredthroughR&Dfundingandtrials
44 Newpolicymayberequiredinthemediumtermtoensurethatthe futurehydrogenproductionmixdeliversCO2emissionssavings Hydrogenproductionpathways6 CurrentUKhydrogenproductioncapacityis insufficienttomeettransportdemandfromthe mid2030s Thereforenewproductioncapacitywillneedto beintroducedconcurrentlywithvehicledemand growth,takingintoaccountGHGemission reductiontargets Astrategywillbeneededonhowthiscapacity willbedelivered(basedontheexpected volumesofhydrogenvehicles)whileensuring thattheoverallproductionmixdeliversverylow well-to-wheelemissions Recommendations CentralGovernment:Considerpolicymechanisms toensuresufficientvolumesoflowcarbonhydrogen sources R&Dbodies:Investigatelowcostgreenhydrogen productiontechnologies Technologytype 1.Distributedwaterelectrolysis 2.Conventionalwaterelectrolysis 3.Coalgasification+carboncaptureandstorage 4.CentralisedSMR+carboncaptureandstorage 5.IGCC+carboncaptureandstorage 6.Distributedsteammethanereforming 7.Conventionalsteammethanereforming 8.Internalgasificationcombinedcycle 9.Coalgasification Source:Aportfolioofpower-trainsforEurope:afact-basedanalysis,McKinsey&Co,2011 Targets:technicaltargetstoreducecarbonfootprintofhydrogenasatransportfuel
45 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuellinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
46 References −Aportfolioofpower-trainsforEurope:afact-basedanalysis,2011 −BPStatisticalEnergyReview,2014 −Datafromindustry,including:Shell,AirProducts −DECC,EnergyconsumptionintheUK,2014 −DECC,2050energypathwaysanalysis,2013 −DfT,RoadlengthsinGreatBritain,2013 −DUKESChapter3/4/5,2015 −ElementEnergyandE4TechfortheFCHJU,DevelopmentofWaterElectrolysisintheEuropeanUnion,2014 −ElementEnergyforBirminghamCityCouncil,ACityBluePrintforLowCarbonFuelRefuellingInfrastructure,2015 −ElementEnergyforDfT,Ultralowemissionvanstudy,2012 −ElementEnergy,OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,2014 −ETI,AnaffordabletransitiontosustainableandsecureenergyforlightvehiclesintheUK,2013 −EuropeanParliamentandCouncil,Directive2009/30/EC,2009 −IEA,HydrogenProductionandDistribution,2007 −ForecourtTrader,FuelMarketReview,2014 −JRC,WTTanalysisoffutureautomotivefuelsandpowertrainsintheEuropeancontext,2014 −Roads2HycomDeliverable2.1and2.1a,2007 −UKH2MobilityPhase1,publicreport,2013
47 Acronyms AFVAlternativeFuelVehicle CCCCommitteeonClimateChange CCSCarbonCaptureandStorage CHPCombinedHeatandPower COMAHControlofMajorAccidentHazard DECCDepartmentofEnergy&ClimateChange DfTDepartmentforTransport DUKESDigestofUnitedKingdomEnergyStatistics ECEuropeanCommission EEElementEnergy ETIEnergyTechnologiesInstitute EUEuropeanUnion FCFuelCell FCEVFuelCellElectricVehicle FCHJUFuelCellHydrogenJointUndertaking FLTForkLiftTruck H2Hydrogen HDVHeavyDutyvehicle HGVHeavyGoodsVehicle HRSHydrogenRefuellingStation HSEHealthandSafetyExecutive ICEInternalCombustionEngine ktpathousandstonnesperannum LCNLowCarbonNetwork MtMilliontonnes NGNationalGrid NPPFNationalPlanningPolicyFramework OEMOriginalEquipmentManufacturer OLEVOfficeforLowEmissionVehicles PMParticulateMatter R&DResearchandDevelopment REDRenewableEnergyDirective SMRSteamMethaneReforming TEN-TTrans-EuropeanTransportNetworks TSBTechnologyStrategyBoard TTWTank-to-Wheel ULEVUltra-LowEmissionsVehicle WEWaterElectrolysis WTTWell-to-Tank WTWWell-to-Wheel
48 TotalUKvehiclestock(millionvehicles) Futurevehicleprojectionsusefigures providedbyDfT: −Carsstocktoincreasefromc.30 millionto39millionandc.550billion vehiclekmtravelledby2050 −Vansstocktoincreasefromc. 3.5millionto7millionby2050 −HGVsstocktoincreasefromc.500 thousandstodaytoc.630thousand by2050 −Busesstockandvehiclekmtravelled tostaybroadlyconstantataround 170thousandunitsand5billion vehiclekmtravelled Overallfleetandkmincreaseofc.40% between2015and2050 ThemodellingofthefutureUKfleetisbasedonDfTtrafficandpark sizeprojections 7 5 4 4 30 39 20302020 37 32 2015 34 +37% 2050 47 41 35 CarsVansHGVsBuses 103 142 82 72 413 449 +43% 2015 517 5 512556 27 2050 738 2030 305 5 528 650 2020 35 564 Totalvehiclekmtravelled(billionkm) Source:DfTRoadtransportforecasts(availableonline)aswellasdirectsupplyofNationalTravel Modeloutputsforthecaseofcars
49 Thepowertrain/fueluptakescenariosunderpinningthe InfrastructureRoadmaparepolicyled Uptakescenariosfocusonalternativefuels Thescenariosusedarenotintendedtocoverallpossibleoutcomesbutinsteadfocuson caseswithambitiousuptakeofalternativefuels Scenariosarepolicyled,typicallybasedontargetssetbytheCommitteeonClimateChange (sourcesshownnext);theyareillustrativeratherthanbasedondetailedofnewmodelling technologycostsandcustomerdecisionmakingbehaviour Thereforetheuptakescenariosrepresentpossiblefutureswherelowandultralowemission powertrainsaresuccessfullydeployed FocusisintendedtoprovidethemostinterestinginputsfortheanalysisoftheInfrastructure Roadmap–e.g.a‘businessasusual’casewherepetrolanddieselcontinuetoprovideover 98%ofroadtransportenergywouldnotrequirenewrefuelling/recharginginfrastructure InaccordancewiththeFuelRoadmap,blendshigherthanB7arenotconsideredforthe mainstreamfuelsandE20isconsideredonlyfromthe2030s Scenarioshaveenabledfutureinfrastructurerequirementstobequantifiedandupfrontcosts capitalcostsforpublicinfrastructurehavebeenestimated.Costofsettingnewfuel productionassets,distribution/logisticscostsandgeneralinfrastructureoperatingcostshave notbeenconsidered.Costsofotherincentivesthatmightberequiredtoachievetheuptake scenarios(e.g.vehiclegrants)havennotbeenestimatedinthisstudy
50 Overviewofthepowertrainoptionsconsideredandkeysources CarsandvansBusesHGVsNRMM HGV=HeavyGoodsVehicles,NRMM=NonRoadMobileMachinery ICE:petrol,diesel, LPG,(gas),(H2in earlyyears) EVs:BatteryEVs, plug-inhybridEVs, fuelcell(FCEVs) TheCarbonPlan andthe Committeeon ClimateChange’s recommendations H2MobilityPhase 1report,2013 Historictrendsfor petrol/dieselsplit ICE:diesel, (bio)methane EVs:BEV,PH/RE, FCEV (Liquidairfor cooling/hybrid power) Currentand announced commercial availability,policy drivers Alternative Powertrainfor Urbanbuses,2012 CCC–4thCarbon BudgetReview ICE:diesel, (bio)methane, (methanol) EVs-inlighter segmentsonly Currentand announced commercial availability DfTHGVTask Force TSB-DfTLow CarbonTruckTrial CCC–4thCarbon BudgetReview ICE:diesel,LPG, (gas),Liquidairfor refrigerationunits (Batteriesand FuelCells–in some applications) Dataonfuelusage ofNRMMis sparse Morequalitative approach suggested Parenthesesindicatesthepowertrain/fueloptionisexpectedtostaynicheinthe2050horizon RELEVANT POWERTRAINS /FUELS KEY SOURCES / INDICATORS
51 Carsandvansareexpectedtotransitiontozeroemissionpowertrains fortheUKtomeetitsGHGreductiontargets Source:ElementEnergy Carsandlightcommercialvehicles(‘vans’)aretreatedtogetherastheyhavethe sametechnologyoptionsandfallunderthesameelectrificationtargetsinthe CarbonPlan. Salesofvansrunningonmethanearenotconsideredinthemodellingonthebasis ofthelowcommercialavailability(only2modelsonthemarket),lackofpolicy driversforgrowthandaforementionedelectrificationtargets.Anygasdemand resultingfromvanswouldbesmallenoughtobeconsiderednegligible,in comparisontothepotentialgasdemandfromtrucks. DualfuelvansrunningondieselandhydrogenandRangeExtenderFuelCell electricvans(beingdeployedcurrentlyintheUKandincontinentalEurope)arenot modelledexplicitly.Instead,theirhydrogendemandisaccountedforinthe‘FCEV’ heading.Thespecificrequirementsfordualfuelandrange-extenderH2vansare howeverconsideredintheInfrastructureRoadmap(e.g.dispensingpressure).
52 Sources:ElementEnergy,UKH2MobilityreportPhase1(2013),PathwaystohighpenetrationofEVs,EEfortheCCC(2013), OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,EEforLowCVP(2014) 2030 60% 30% 2020 100% 2050 100% 3% 2015 9% Moderateambition CCCtargets <1% MarketshareofEVs(newsales) 50%60% 50% 75% 50%39%35%50% 0% 20302050 10% 15% 2020 15%0% 100% 2050 50% 2015 1% BEVFCEVPH/REEV BreakdownofmarketshareofEVs TwoEVuptakescenarioshave beenused: −‘CCCtargets’:EVsreach60% marketshareby2030andZero Emissionvehiclesreach100% ofmarketsharebefore2050 −‘Moderateambition’:the 2030CCCtargetsarenotmet butEVuptakeisnonetheless high(30%newsales);by2050 EVsrepresent100%ofsales butaremainlyPHEVsorRE- EVs,i.e.stillreliantonliquid fuels Scenarios WestudiedinfrastructurerequirementssetbytheCommitteeonClimate ChangetargetsaswellasacasewithaslowerEVuptake
53Sources:ElementEnergy,SMMTdatafor2000-2013sales,UKLPGforLPG2013figures SalesofnewcarswithInternalCombustionEnginevehicles-split betweenspark-ignition(‘petrol’type)andcompressionignition engines(‘diesel’type) 37%46%51%50%50% 86% 63%54%49%50%50% 20052000 14% 2020-502013 100% 20102012 CompressionignitionSpark-ignition PROPOSED SCENARIO RiseofdieselStabilisation 2013 5.0% 2030 0.6% Shareofspark-ignitioncars(ICEandHEV)stockthatrunonLPG c.112,000units c.800,000units Weassumedthatthecurrentsplitof petrol/dieselenginesfornewcars(50/50) ismaintainedgoingforward InlinewiththeFuelsRoadmap,dieselwill beB7(EN590)withanincreasingamount ofdrop-inrenewablediesel–i.e.no compatibilityissuetobeconsideredforthe distributioninfrastructure Forpetrolengines,wewillevaluatethe amountof: −EthanolneedediftheE10becomes themaingradeby2020andE20by 2032 −LPGneededforacasewheretherate ofconversion(orsalesifOEMsupply isputinplace)acceleratestoreach 5%ofthepetrolcarstock(equivalent toc.40,000conversionsperyear until2030) Allnewvansareassumedtorunondiesel Scenarios Weassumedcontinuationoftheobservedpetrol/dieselshareforcars andmodelledanambitiousLPGuptake Decreasingstock post-2030asnonew conversion/salesare assumed
54 Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatisticsTableVEH0601,LowCVPLowCarbonEmissionBusMarketMonitoring(Jan2015),CCC, 4thCarbonbudget,20131-AlternativePowertrainforUrbanbusesstudy(2012) 30% 10% 60% Singledeckbus/coach Doubledeckbus/coach Minibus UKbusfleet,c.165,000vehicles: UKlowemissionbuses(allsingleordoubledeck, nomini-buses) 274 12785 18 2014 1,787 FCEV BatteryEV Biomethane Micro-hybrid Hybrid ScenarioCurrentUKbusmarket Werampedupthealternativefuelmarketsharefrom 2030,inlinewiththeEuropeanstudy1thatsuggeststhat theTCOofbatteryandFCe-citybuseswillbecome comparableandcompetitivewithdieselandCNGbusesby 20301 Weassume90%uptakeforZeroEmissionVehiclesby2050 Thisislowerthatthe100%FCEVsassumedintheCCC projections,toreflectthefactthatdoubledeckerbuses (andbusesinhighlyruralareas)mightrequiregas 0% 92% 60% 80% 10% 40% 5% 15% 15%5% 2020 100% 2050 50% 20402030 2% 10% 10% 4% Newbusessalesscenario: ‘Diesel’referstoablendofB7 anddrop-inrenewablediesel, aspertheFuelsRoadmapDiesel,includeshybridBEV FCEV(Bio)methane Buseshavemanypowertrainoptionsbutoverallsmallfuelusesowe usedonlyonescenario,wherealltechnologiesseehighsales
55 Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatistics,BirminghamCityBlueprintforlowcarbonfuelsrefuellinginfrastructure,EEfor BirminghamCityCouncil(2015),LowEmissionHGVTaskForce(2014),HMRC(2014),CCC,4thCarbonbudget,2013 29%32% 39% >31tGVW-articulated >8tto31tGVW-mostlyrigid >3.5tto8tGVW-rigid UKHGVfleet,c.460,000vehicles: UKlowemissiontrucks-estimates <100 c.1,000 2014 Methane BatteryEV 94%79% 0% 45% 20% 5%5% 20% 10%1% 2050 0%1%10% 40% 20%15% 2020 1% 2040 100% 10% 25% 2030 Newtrucksalesscenario: Gastrucksallover18tGVW,mostly dualfuel(dieselandmethane) Electrictrucksallunder18tGVW FCEVlighttrucksatearlydemostage ‘Diesel’referstoablend ofB7anddrop-in renewablediesel,asper theFuelsRoadmap Diesel,includeshybrid Methane BEV FCEV DieselLPGdualfuel ScenarioCurrentUKHeavyGoodsVehiclemarket WetomodelledaHighAlternativeFuelUptakecasewhere bothpureelectricandgastrucksreachasignificantsales levelsintheirrespectivemarkets(lightandheavytrucks) FCEVsalsocapturealargeshareofthemarket,asperthe CCC’svisionoftheroleofhydrogen ForHeavyGoodsVehicles,wetestedahighuptakeofbothelectric (batteryandfuelcell)andgastrucks
56 Non-RoadMobileMachinerytypicallyrefuelsinprivatedepots/premises butthecaseofLPG,liquidairandhydrogenwereconsidered Source:ElementEnergyanalysisbased,onDfTstatisticsrequestedinJan2015andNon-RoadMobileMachineryUsage, LifeandCorrectionFactorsAEAforDt(2004),industryinputforLPGuseinforklift 10% 7% 23% 17% 42% Forklifts Otheroff-roads Agriculturaltractors RefrigerationunitsonHGVs Portablegeneratorsets Otheroff-roads:TelescopicHandlers,BackhoeLoaders,Excavators,Cranes,Bulldozers,Compressorsetc. UKNRMMfleetforindustry,constructionand agriculture,c.700,000unitsin2014: (CouldtransitiontoLPG,BatteryandFuelCellpacksforsomeuses) LPG,couldtransitiontoLiquidAir UseofLPG(alreadyusedbyc.30%offorklifts)andbatteries couldincrease,couldtransitiontohydrogen (Limitedoptions,possibly(bio)methaneorhighblendbiodiesel) Scenario (LPG,limitedalternativefueloptions) Beyondtheblendingofrenewabledrop-indieselindiesel, optionsforcleanerfuelsare: Wetoconsidered(qualitatively,consideringthe lackofdisaggregateddataonfueluse)the infrastructureimpactsof: −AtransitiontoLiquidAirforHGV refrigerationunits −AnincreaseinLPG,batteryandhydrogenuse forforklifts
57 Appendix–Therearebroadlytwotypesofrefuellinginfrastructure forliquidfuelsintheUK Source:ElementEnergy,DfTModes3study(2011) Largefleetoperatorsincludingpublic transportoperators,hauliers,logistics companies,forkliftoperatorstendtooperate designatedrefuellingdepotssuitedtotheir ‘returntobase’operations Suchfacilitiestendtobeprivateand exclusivelyserviceasinglevehicletype Mostbusesandheavygoodvehiclesrefuel indepots–shareofdieselsuppliedthrough depot: 90%forbuses,40%forcoaches 80%articulatedtrucks,45%rigidtrucks Refuellingatprivatedepots:c.25%fuelsalesRefuellingatpublicforecourts:c.75%fuelsales Generally,publicvehiclerefuelling(passenger cars,vans,motorbikes,scooters)isfacilitatedby oneoftheUK’sc.8,600forecourts Refuellingforecourtsarepubliclyaccessibleand aregenerallyownedandoperatedbylargeoil companies(e.g.Shell,BP,Esso,etc.), independentretailersandsupermarketchains
58 Appendix–NationalGrid“Futureenergyscenarios” SOURCE:NationalGrid“FutureEnergyScenarios”(2014) NationalGridhasdevelopedfourscenariosforfutureelectricitygenerationandgas supplysourcesto2050
59 Appendix–TEN-TCoreNetwork 200km Source:ElementEnergy,basedonEuropeanCommissiondata

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