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The document provides background on current liquid fuel infrastructure in the UK and outlines the development of an infrastructure roadmap to 2050 to support new powertrains and fuels. It summarizes the current upstream to downstream system for transport fuels including crude oil refineries, import terminals, inland terminals, private depots, and public forecourts. It also notes future infrastructure requirements and barriers to deployment will be quantified based on projected demand scenarios. Recommendations for delivering the necessary infrastructure nationally and locally will be provided.

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TransportEnergyInfrastructure Roadmapto2050 LIQUIDFUELSROADMAP PreparedfortheLowCVPbyElementEnergyLtd CelineCluzel&AlastairHope–Morley JUNE2015
ProjectSteeringGroup AutogasLimited BOCLimited BEAMA CalorGasLtd EDFEnergy ElectricityNetworksAssociation NationalGrid OfficeforLowEmissionVehicles RenewableEnergyAssociation TransportforLondon TransportScotland UKPetroleumAssociation LowCVPProjectManager JonathanMurray, PolicyandOperationsDirector Contractor PreparedbyElementEnergyLtd Authors CelineCluzel AlastairHope-Morley Reviewer AlexStewart TransportEnergyInfrastructure Roadmapto2050 LIQUIDFUELSROADMAP JUNE2015 Disclaimer Whiletheauthorsconsiderthatthedataandopinionscontainedinthisreportaresound,allparties mustrelyupontheirownskillandjudgementwhenusingit.Theauthorsdonotmakeany representationorwarranty,expressedorimplied,astotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthereport.
3 Acknowledgements TheLowCVPaimsto: Developinitiativestopromotethesaleandsupplyoflowcarbonvehiclesandfuels ProvideinputandadviceonGovernmentpolicy Provideaforumforstakeholderstoshareknowledgeandinformation EnsurethatUKmotor,fuelandrelatedbusinessesarebestplacedtocapitaliseontheopportunitiesinthelowcarbon marketsofthefuture ContributetotheachievementofUKGovernmenttargetsforroadtransportcarbonreduction AutogasLimited BOCLimited BEAMA CalorGasLtd EDFEnergy ElectricityNetworksAssociation NationalGrid OfficeforLowEmissionVehicles RenewableEnergyAssociation TransportforLondon TransportScotland UKPetroleumAssociation TheLowCVP,establishedin2003,isapublic-privatepartnershipthat existstoaccelerateasustainableshifttolowercarbonvehiclesand fuelsandcreateopportunitiesforUKbusiness. AberdeenCityCouncil AirProducts BRC BYD Calorgas CNGFuels CNGServices DearmanEngineCompanyLtd DownstreamFuelAssociation DrivelectricLtd. ENNGroupEurope GasBusAlliance Gasrec GTC IntelligentEnergy Nissan Openenergi Riversimple Scania SGN SMMT TfL Thriev TowerTransit UKLPG UKPN ULEMCo UPS Wales&WestUtilities ProjectSteeringCommitteeWorkshopattendees
4 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
5 Background-a‘TransportInfrastructureroadmap’isneededto complementexistingvehicleandfuelroadmaps Source:AutoCouncilandLowCVP Vehicleroadmaps Transportfuelroadmaps Source:AutoCouncilandElementEnergyfortheLowCVP Inthecontextoftheexpectedtransitiontolowercarbonpowertrains andfuels,theAutoCouncilvehicleroadmapshaveproventobea usefultooltofocusresearch,fundingandpolicy,bringingintoone placetheindustry’sviewsonfuturetechnologyoptions,deployment stepsandcorrespondingpolicydrivers. Tocomplementthesepowertraintechnologiesroadmaps,the LowCVPcommissionedaRoadTransportFuelsRoadmapin2013-14, whichalsoprovedsuccessfulinbringingclaritytothefueloptions availableandmappingtheenablingmilestones. ThisInfrastructureroadmapisthe‘missingpiece’thatwillsupport newpowertrainsandnewfuels.Thisroadmapisallthemore necessaryastheneedsandbarriersfordeploymentofelectric, hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsdiffersignificantlyand refuelling/recharginginfrastructureisakeyenablerforlowemission vehicles. TheobjectivesoftheInfrastructureRoadmapareto: −Assesstheinfrastructureneedsandbarriersfordeploymentof electric,hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsto2050,including impactonupstreamdistribution,aswellastoconsider ‘conventional’liquidfuels −Makerecommendationsfordeliveryofinfrastructure deployment,bothatnationalandlocalgovernmentlevel. Source:ElementEnergy
6 TheInfrastructureRoadmapcoversprivateandpublicinfrastructure, forallmainroadvehiclesandbothcurrentandfuturefuels Depotbasedrefuellingforfleetoperatorsandreturntobase operators Homerechargingforprivateand(some)commercialvehicles Publicforecourtrefuelling/recharging Refuellinginfrastructuretypes Fuels/energyvectorsconsidered Zerotailpipeemissionfuels:electricityandhydrogen ‘Conventional’liquidfuels:gasoline(E5toE20,inlinewith theTransportFuelsRoadmap),diesel,LPG/bio-propane Methane:CompressedNaturalGas(CNG),LiquefiedNG(LNG) andbiomethane Niche/futurefuels:methanol,liquidairandahighbioethanol blend(E85) TheUK’slegallybindingtargettoreducetotalGHGemissionsbyatleast80%(relativeto1990levels)by2050, andtransportcontributestoc.25%ofUKtotalGHGemissions; EUlevelregulations(gCO2/km,AirQualitytargetsandEUROspec),Directives(RenewableEnergy,FuelQuality, CleanPowerforTransport)andTransportWhitePaper Driversforchangeinthetransportenergysystem Vehicletypes Source:ElementEnergy
7 ThedevelopmentoftheInfrastructureRoadmapbenefittedfrominput fromawiderangeofstakeholders,manyconsultedthroughworkshops Developuptakescenarios for%salesofelectricand ICEvehicles InputintoElementEnergy fleetmodel Outputnumbersof vehiclesinthefleetand MJusedperenergyvector ICEvehicles:diesel,petrol,LPG,gasvehicles Electricvehicles:Battery(BEV),Plug-inHybrid(PHEV), Range-Extended(RE-EV)andhydrogenfuelcell(FCEV) Niche/futurefuelsconsidered:E85,methanol,liquidair PrepareInfrastructure Roadmap Reviewexistingliterature onrefuellingand upstreaminfrastructure Industryconsultation withLowCVPFuels workinggroup ReviewbySteering Committee Preparedraftreport Completefinalreport Hoststakeholder workshops Fourdedicatedfuelworkshopswereconducted Workshopthemes:electricity,liquidfuels,methane,hydrogen 38attendeesincluded:Infrastructuremanufacturers,installers, operators,DNOs,energycompanies,fuelsuppliers,OEM/vehicle suppliers,endusers,localgovernment/regulator Reportpreparation Externalinput Source:ElementEnergy vkt:vehiclekmtravelled Seefullreportsfor furtherdetailsoffuel uptakescenarios Scrappagerate,stockandmileageinputsbasedonDfTdata/projections:c.40%increaseinstockand vktby2050(39millionvehicles,740billionvkt);VehicleefficiencybasedonCommitteeonClimate Changemodelling
8 Fourseparatereportshavebeendeveloped–thisreportisdedicated tothecaseofmethaneasatransportfuel Finalreport summarising findingsfromeach energyvectors Fourseparatereportswereproducedtocapturethedifferences betweentheenergyvectors/fuelsunderconsideration This report
9 Backgroundandstatusquo −Summaryofcurrentupstreamtodownstreamsystemsandliquidfuelconsumption −Currentsupplypathways −Currenttrendsregardingforecourts Futureinfrastructurerequirementsandbarrierstodeployment −Quantificationofrefuellingstationneeds,bylocationand/orvehiclesegments-basedon projecteddemand,derivedfromvalidateduptakescenarios −Barrierstodeploymentofinfrastructure-barrierstodeploymentofcorresponding powertrainsarenotdiscussed–successfuldeploymentofnewpowertrains/fuelsisthe startingassumption Thecaseofnichefuels Summary:infrastructureroadmapandrecommendations −Roadmapschematicthatsummarisesabovefindings −Recommendationsfordelivery(national,local,RD&Dneeds,fundingshortfall) Structureofthereport
10 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
11 Public forecourts TheextensivenationalinfrastructuresupportingtheUK’sliquid transportfueldemandcanbedividedintothreestreams Crudeoil refineries Coastalrefinedoil importterminals Distribution 51%viapipeline 15%viarail 34%bysea CrudeoilRefinedproducts e.g.petrol,diesel,biofuel InlandterminalsLong-termstorage Bioethanolblending Private depots Distribution >95%viaroad <5%viapipeline UpstreamMidstreamDownstream 10million tonnes/year 30million tonnes/year Totaldelivered petroleumin 2011: Relative% shareof consumption: Total:c.50 Total:20-30Total:6 19992002200520082011 Petrol Diesel Source:DUKES(2014),DECC(2014),UKPIA(2015),RicardoAEA(2011) Mt=milliontonnes Non-transport demand 2011: 50%diesel, 50%petrol 2011: >95%diesel, <5%petrol Includesdomesticheating c.4Mt/year),feedstockfor chemicalplants(3-4Mt), lubricatingoilsandgrease(0.5 Mt)andothernon-energy productsincludingbitumen, whitespirtandcoke(c.2Mt) Over70%oftotal inlandpetroleum deliveriesarefor transportdemand 20112005199920022008
12 AllsixactiveUKoilrefinerieshavefacilitiestoimportandblend biofuelsandLPG TerminalandoilrefinerygeographyOilprocessingandrefinerycapacity TheUK’ssixactiveoilrefinerieshaveatotalrefiningcapacity ofc.63milliontonnesperannumandsupply85%ofthe inlandmarketdemandforpetroleumproducts ThenumberofactiveoilrefineriesintheUKhasdecreased from19in1975to6in2015 TotalstoragecapacityoftheUK’sc.21majorcoastalimport terminalsisc.6milliontonnes Coastalterminals*: Crudeoilrefineries: Inlandterminals: 0 20 40 60 2010199520052000 Diesel Other LPG Petrol Refineryproductionhasdecreased30%overthelast10years andnumerousrefinerieshaveclosedforcommercialreasons Importshaveincreased;40%ofdieseldemandandc.50-55% ofjetfueldemandisimportedtotheUK UKoilrefineryproduction Refineryproductionmilliontonnes/year ‘Other’:additionalrefineryproducts(e.g.naptha,kerosene,bitumen,etc.) 6oilrefineries1 c.21coastalterminals c.12inlandterminals2 1Excludingdedicatedbiofuelproductionplants.2Includesprivatelyownedfacilitiesonly,excludesgovernmentownedfacilities primarilyusedtosupplymilitaryairfields.Source:ElementEnergyanalysis,UKPIA(2014),DECC(2013) TwodedicatedLPG terminals(Immingham andCanvey) *Coastalterminalsincludefacilitieswithand withoutfacilitiestoreceivelargeshipimports Onlymajor facilitiesshown
13 Generally,FAMEisblendedatrefineriesandimportterminalsand ethanolblendedatdistributionterminalracks 1DECCRTFOBiofuelStatistics(2014).Sources:Ecofys(2013),ElementEnergy(2014) FAME=fattyacidmethylesters,UCO=usedcookingoil CommercialbiofuelproductionplantsUKbiofuelproductionandconsumptioncapacity TheUKhasc.20dedicatedbiofuelproductionplants(total productioncapacityisc.1,500millionlitres/year) In2014,themajorityofFAMEwasderivedfromUCOand tallow(adheringtoREDsustainabilitycriteria)butapotential UCOsupplyshortagecouldoccurasglobalmarketsrecognise UCOasacosteffectiveandlowcarbonfeedstock In2014,domesticfeedstocksupplied20%ofUKbiodieseland bioethanolconsumption;theremaining80%wasimported1 ‘Drop-in’biofuelisunlikelytobeavailableinlargequantities untilpost-2020duetolowtechnologyreadinessand investmentuncertainty Biodieselplant: Large(>5millionL/year): Small(<5millionL/year): Bioethanolplant: 17biodieselplants 3bioethanolplants Biodiesel Bioethanol Biodiesel millionLitresmillionLitres Bioethanol 0 500 1,000 1,500 2014201020082012 UKconsumptionUKproductioncapacity Biofuel 0 500 1,000 1,500 2014200820102012
14 Roadcapacityisbestsuitedtodeliverhigherblendstoendusers unlessdemandcanjustifynewpipelinecapacity 1BioethanolderivativescanbedistributedbypipelineifconvertedtoETBEatarefinerybyreactionwithisobutene,orby producingbiobutanol.2FAMEmaximumspecificationinjetfuelsis<50ppm.Source:RicardoAEA(2011) Viaroad Distributetodepotsandforecourts throughlogisticsandoilcompanies Roadtankers(rigidorsemi-rigid) generallycomprise3-6 compartmentswithvaryingcapacity (1,000-7,000litreseach) Higherblendcapabilityrequireslow costtankerupgrades(e.g.newseals for>B7,andimproved heating/insulationfor>E5) Operatingclosetofullcapacitybut appetiteforexpansionexists(e.g. organisationsusingthird-party haulagevehicleshaveflexiblefleet numberstomeetdemandvariation) Viapipeline Bioethanolcouldpotentially corrodeexistingpipelines andishighlyhydrophilic, thereforeisonlyblended duringtruckfillingatinland terminals1 FAMEs(surfaceactive materialswithapropensity toleaveresiduewithin pipelines)couldcontaminate jetfuelsdistributedviathe samepipeline2 Costlynewinfrastructure requireslargethroughputto repaycapitalinvestment Viarail Distributeprimarysupplyfrom refineriesandimportterminals toinlandterminals,wholesale distributersandlargeend-user depots(e.g.airports,industry) Nohigherblends(>E5/B7)are currentlytransportedbyrail Infrastructureisoperating closetofullcapacitydueto limitedloadinganddischarge pointsatrefineriesorterminals Railnetworkisalsoincreasingly limitedbypathwayavailability Only3-4railloadingfacilities remainactiveintheUK Existingdistributioninfrastructuredeliverstwopetrolgrades,onedieselandoneheating/NRMMgrade Introductionofanewgradetothedistributionsystemwouldlikelyrequiredisplacementofanexistinggrade Pipeline,roadandraildistributionpathwaysintheUKallhaveexperiencedeliveringE5-10andB7biofuelblends Experiencewithhigher blends(>E5/B7) Effectivecapacityfor higherblenddistribution Biofuel
15 Publicforecourtnumbersaredecliningandwhilstsupermarketstation numbersareintheminority,theirmarketshareofsalesissignificant Forecourtoperators Thefuelretailmarkethasexperiencedaparadigmshiftsince Tescoopeneditsfirstfuelretailingforecourtin1970,as increasingnumbersoflargersupermarketforecourtsoffer lowercostfueltoencouragedriversintostores Lowpricessignificantlyimpactindependentretailerbusiness models,resultinginreducedcommercialviability,particularly inruralareaswhereforecourtshavefewerpumpsandare thereforeinherentlylessprofitable Source:ExperianCatalist(2013),UKPIA(2014) Supermarketforecourtnumbersareincreasingandforecourtcapacityandaveragethroughputhasincreased IndustryfeedbackindicatedthatsupermarketforecourtgeographiccoverageisinsufficienttosupplyallUKdemand 44% 57% 16% 84% Oilcompany,dealerandindependentretailerSupermarket Marketshareby numberofforecourts Marketshareby fueldispensed Overallfueldemandhasdeclineddueto increaseduseofdieselandvehiclefuel efficiencyimprovements Totalnumberofforecourtshasfallenby 50%since1995 Forecourtnumbers 2013 2013:8,613 forecourts 19952010200519902000 -50% Oilcompany Supermarket Independent/dealer Forecourts
16 Organisationswiththelargestmarketsharearetechnicallyand economicallybettersuitedtosellhigherbiofuelblends Source:ExperianCatalist,RicardoAEA(2011) RTFO=RenewableTransportFuelObligation Forecourtthroughput(sizedependant)Forecourtgeographicdistribution Retailerswithfourormorepumps(65%ofUKtotal) tendhave5-15timesgreatervolumeofsalesthan retailerswithoneortwomulti-fuelpumps Theseforecourtsgenerallysellatleastthreegradesof fuelandforecourtswithfewerpumpsonlyselltwo Thereforeretailerswithfourormorepumpsselling 85%offorecourtfuelaremorelikelytoconsider offeringhigherbiofuelblendsfromoneoftheirpumps andincurtheassociatedupgradecosts However,manylargeretailersarenotobligatedunder theRTFOthereforetheiradoptionofhigherblendfuels willbegovernedbycustomerdemand,inturn influencedbyGovernmentpolicy >75%offorecourtswithfewerthanfourpumps arelocatedinruralorresidentialareas Availabilityofmultipletankandpump combinationsisalsoessentialtostationflexibility andtheabilitytoofferhigherbiofuelblends 9301,000870 470 280 321>5 >1,000 54 Averagevolumedispensedper pump(1000litres) Numberofmulti-fuel pumpsatforecourt 35%offorecourtshavefewerthan4pumps (manylocatedinruralareas)andarelikelyto requireadditionalfinancialsupporttoadopt higherblendbiofuelsduetotheir: Inherentlyweakereconomics (proportionatelysmallerincome) Limitedfueltankcapacityrequiringnew installationsratherthanrefurbishments 50% 100% 0% >6654321No.ofmulti-fuelpumps Industry/Office Residential Motorway Rural UrbanTransient ForecourtsBiofuel
17Source:ElementEnergyanalysisforDfT(2012).1SeeAppendix,2Decisionbyforecourtoperatortodedicate(atleast) onetanktostoreahigherbiofuelblend,andincrementallyupgradewithtime. A)Installnewstorageanddispensingcapacity Newcapacityforhigherblendsincreasesthe overallforecourtcapacityandthereforedoesnot cannibaliseanyexistingoutput However,newtanksarecostlyandlogistically difficulttoinstallonexistingforecourts Estimatedcostsforinstallingnewcapacity compatiblewithhigherblendsofbiofuels£90k- 110k/station(forE85compatibletankand dispenser) Installationofcapacitycompatiblewithhigher biofuelblendsshouldbestrategicallytimedwith licenseddecommissioningofold,regularfuel capacity B)Modifyandutiliseexistingcapacity Modifyingexistingcapacityisconsiderablycheaperthan installingnewcapacitybutrequirespartialdisplacement ofaprofitable,highdemandfuel Newequipmentwillberequiredifexistingdiesel/petrol capacityistobeutilisede.g.heating/insulationfor biodieselstorageandvent/sealupgradesforbioethanol storage.Thiscouldbedoneaspartofnatural replacementcycle,butthisoccursonlyevery20-30years Anychange-of-useforpre-existingtankstostoreE85or B30willrequiredewatering,sludgeremovaland disposal,filterreplacementandflushingofallsuction lineswithanestimatedcostofc.£30-40k/station1 Annualmaintenancecostsforinspectionandcleaning areestimatedtobec.£1-1.5k/year/station Bothoptionshaveacostpremiumtotheforecourtoperatortoenabletheretailoflessprofitablefuel Industrystakeholderconsultation(2013/14)showedthatasingletankcommitment2(forforecourtsofaparticular size)forgraduallyupgradingtohigherblendswasabarriertoadoptionduetofirstmovereconomicdisadvantage Assuranceforvehiclecompatibilitywithhigherblendswouldbeneededbeforeoperatorsconsiderinvestment ExistingforecourtsarecompatiblewithuptoE10only,sellinghigher blendbiofuels(aboveE10andB7)wouldlikelyrequirenewinvestment ForecourtsBiofuel
18 Privatedepotsgenerallyonlyhaveoneon-sitetank,restricting supplytoasinglefuelandlimitingmulti-fuelhigherblendtrials Drop-infuel=biofuelblendindistinguishablefromstandardcrude-derivedfuel Source:RicardoAEA(2011),DfT(2014)“Petroleumconsumptionbytransportmodeandfueltype” Raildepots(demand:c.0.6milliontonnes/yr) Lightmaintenanceandrefuellingdepots(c. 50intheUK)utiliseasinglepipenetwork betweendispensersandstoragetanks(i.e. single-fuelpumps) Higherblendbiofuelsrequirededicated storageanddispensingfacilitiesandhave beenlimitedtotrialsintheUK Airportdepots(demand:c.0.1milliontonnes/yr) Airportdepotsstoresmallquantitiesofbiodieselup toB7forairsidegroundvehiclesandarebelievedto becapableofstoringhigherbiofuelblends Appetiteforhigherblendsexistsbutisrestrictedby concernsovervehiclecompatibility HGVdepots(demand:c.8milliontonnes/yr) Coach/busdepots(demand:c.1milliontonnes/yr) Fragmenteddepotnetworks;estimated2-3,000 privatedepotsintheUKstoringbiodieseluptoB7 Majorityofdepotsincludesingletanksonly (restrictedtoonlyoneblend)butexceptionswith highdemandhaveupto3tanks Requirefinancialincentive,consistentsupplyand sustainablecertificationforfleetstobegin consideringfeasibility HGVstravelacrossEUsoneedconsistentfuels Moreconsistentdepotnetworks,withthe majorityadoptingreturn-to-baseoperation withsingletanksites Toaccommodatehigherbiofuelblends operatorsmusteitherrefurbishexistingtank andrunbusesonsamehigherblendof biodiesel(c.£20k/depot)orinstallnew storagefacilities(equivalenttoc.£2.5kper busserved) DepotsBiofuel
19 Despiteanextensiveinfrastructurenetwork,demandforLPGhas fallenfollowingtheexpiryofincentivesforvehicleconversion LPGtransportdemandrelativetototalUKsupply Between2001-2006,LPGconsumptionfortransportrose duetoattractivefueldutyincentivesandavehicle conversiongrantscheme Thegrantschemeexpiredin2006andthefuelduty differentialbetweenLPGandotherfuelshasdiminished In2013,90,000tonnesofLPG(4%oftotalUKLPGsupply) wassuppliedtothetransportsector,markinga31% declineintransportdemandsince2006 SOURCE:DUKES“Petroleumproducts:commoditybalances”(3.2-3.4),DECC“EnergyconsumptionintheUK” (Chapter2),industryinput.FLT=Forklifttruck LPGtransportinfrastructureintheUK LPGismostcommonlyusedbypassengercars, vansandforklifttrucks(FLTs) Over1,400publicsellingpointsintheUK currentlyhaveLPGdispensers Inaddition,over2,000privatedepotsinclude LPGrefuellingfacilitiesforFLTs–anestimated 30%ofFLTsintheUKrunonLPG ThecurrentLPGdistributionsupplychainisa commercialactivity,requiringnosupport LPGpublicforecourt: LPG 0 1 2 3 4 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 201320102001 LPGtransport demand(Mt) TotalLPG supply(Mt) 20042007 -31% TotalLPGsupply(leftaxis) LPGtransportdemand(rightaxis) Note,DECC’stransportconsumptionfiguresdonotaccountforallbunkered LPGforforklifts–industryisworkingwithDECCtoimprovethisdataset
20 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
21 Duetoincreasingsalesofnewpowertrains,salesofconventional ICEvehiclesareexpectedtofallsignificantlybeyond2020 Currentsplitofpetrol/dieselenginesfornewcars (50/50)isassumedtoremaininthefuture DieselwillbeB7(EN590)withanincreasing amountofdrop-inrenewablediesel–i.e.no compatibilityissuestobeconsideredforthe distributioninfrastructure Forpetrolengines,weevaluatedtheamountof: EthanolneedediftheE10becomesthe maingradeby2020andE20by2032 LPGneededforacasewheretherateof conversion(orsalesifOEMsupplyisputin place)acceleratestoreach5%ofthepetrol carstock(equivalenttoc.40,000 conversionsperyearuntil2030) Allnewvansareassumedtorunondiesel Adecreaseofsalesofdiesel(hybrid)busesto 92%in2020,80%in2030and0%in2050 AdecreaseofsalesofdieselHGVsto94%in2020, 78%in2030and15%in2050;someofwhichare dualfuelLPG(25%substitutionrate) 3.0% 0.0% 20302050 5.0% 2013 0.6% 2040 Shareofspark-ignitioncar(ICEandHEV)stockfuelledwithLPG MarketshareofICEvehiclesales(newsales) -28% 49% 97% 49% 70% 35% 35% 2050 0% 2015 50% 20202030 50% 100% 20% 40 20152030 46% 100 50% 0% 91 20%46%50% 20202050 -56% CompressionignitionSparkignition Moderate scenario CCCTarget Increasinguptakedrivenby airqualitybenefitsandfuel costsavingsfollowedbya declineinsalesinlinewith decarbonisationthrough electricpowertrains InconsultationwiththeLowCVPFuelsWorkingGroup,wederiveduptakescenariosfornewpowertrains/fuels,they arepolicyled,typicallybasedonCCCtargets.Scenariosareusedtoforecastinfrastructurerequiredtomatch transportpolicyambitionandestimatethecorrespondingupfrontcostsofthisinfrastructure SeeAppendixformoredetailonscenariosandsources
22 Under‘CCC Target’ uptake scenario Demandforpetrol&dieselforroadtransportwillsignificantly decreasebeyond2020whileuseofLPGcouldincrease 9986 1416 15 12 9 1210 9 7 4 33 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2015 35 2040 25 2030 31 2020 35 -81%-53% 2050 7 1 2050 16 Diesel-heavyvehicles Diesel-lightvehicles Petrol Source:EEfleetmodel,basedonuptakescenariospresentedonpage21 Fueldemand Milliontonnes/year LPGcase TotalLPGdemandfortransportcould increasetoc.360ktpaunderanambitious LPGconversion/vehiclesuptakeprogram Dependingonthelevelofuptakeofalternativefuelvehicles,the demandforpetrolanddieselwilldecreaseby50to80%between nowand2050 147146 280130 808498 300 2,500 200 400 100 0 2020 148 2 2015 98 Total current supply 2,500 2050 80 2040 277 2030 364 TotalUKsupply LPG-heavyvehicles LPG-lightvehicles N.B.LPGdemandcouldcontinue ifbio-LPGisavailableatscale Fueldemand Thousandtonnes/year
23 PetrolcouldtransitiontoE10before2020andtoE20in2030swhile noblendshigherthanB7areexpected 4 88 2 12 0 5 10 15 2050 1 2050 4 -64% 2030 9 1 2020 10 2015 12 E5E20E10 Thecaseofpetrol-forecourt Almostalldistributedthroughforecourts Accordingtothefuelroadmap1, −TransitiontoE10couldbeinplace before2020 −Possibletransition(pendingEUlevel actions)toE20inthe2030s 1EEfortheLowCVP,UKTransportFuelsRoadmap,2014 2Petrolequivalenceaccountsfordifferenceinenergydensitybetweenpetrol(43MJ/kg,LCV)andethanol(27MJ/kg,LCV) Thecaseofdiesel Distributedc.40%indepots,60%at forecourts Theprojectedfallindemandunderthe highuptakeofAFVstranslatesinto:-80% demandatforecourtsand-75%atdepots Accordingtothefuelroadmap1,nohigher blendsthanB7areexpected(butdrop-in fuelscanincreaserenewableshare) Milliontonnespetrolequivalent2 ILLUSTRATIVESPLIT 887 151716 9 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 -47% 2050 24 2020 22 2030 23 2015 3 12 2050 2 6 DepotForecourt Under‘CCC Target’ uptake scenario Milliontonnesdiesel
24 Thedecliningfueldemandatforecourts(mostlyforlightvehicles)is likelytoresultinfurtherforecourtclosures 202020302050 Totalfuel demand (Mt/year) Forecourts 88 4 2 2030 1 13 3 20502020 16 9 17 1 2050 25 27 4 E20E5DieselE10 ‘CCCTarget’ uptake scenario Demand mostlyfrom PHEVs/RE-EVs Mechanismstosupportsmallforecourtsinremoteareaswillbeneededasexistingsupermarketforecourt coverageisgeographicallyinsufficienttosupplyallUKdemand.Underascenarioofextremedemandreduction, thecommercialcaseforurbansitesmaybecomechallengingifreplacementrevenuestreamscannotbefound Securingplanningapprovalforforecourtupgradescanoftenbedifficultduetoenvironmentalconcernsand unfamiliaritywithnewfuels(e.g.tankupgradeornewtankforhighblends) Delaysinapprovalprocesscouldaccelerateforecourtclosures Infrastructureadjustmentstocopewithdecliningdemandwillbemarketdriven Associatedsafetyrisksofmultiplefuelcoexistenceatasingleforecourtneedtobebetterunderstood BritishstandardsfornewbiofuelscanbeadoptedthroughEUframeworkstoensuretechnicalcompatibility Driversshouldbeinformedoffuelavailabilityviaacommunicationsystemasfuelchoicebecomemorediverse Impactofreduceddemandonthecontinueddeclineindomesticrefineryproductionisbeingaddressedby DECC’sMidStreamOilTaskForce Expectedissuesintheshort,mediumandlong-term Source:EEfleetmodel,basedonuptakescenariospresentedinChapter1(Introductionandcontext)
25 Tankerdistributioniswellsuitedtodeliveringhigherblendbiofuelsbut incentivisinginfrastructureoperatorstoinvestwillbemoredifficult BarrierDescriptionExamplesolution Costsforinstallingnew stationcapacity Civilworksandinstallationofnew equipmentcancostuptoc.£100kper station Storagetanks,dispensersandpipeworkare fullycommercialtechnologieswithlittle opportunityforsignificantcostreduction Costsforupgrading existingstationcapacity Refurbishmentofexistingequipmentcan costuptoc.£10k/station Dedicatedfinancialsupport? Lackofconfidencefor vehiclecompatibility withhigherblends Operatorswillnotinvestinhigherblend infrastructureunlessnationalvehicle compatibilityisunderstood/inplace Infrastructureoperatorsrequireclear dialoguefromvehiclesuppliers Lackofconfidencein longtermviability Uncertaintyofbiofuelspolicyandgrowing competitionfromalternativefuelscreates strongdemandriskforinvestors Longtermvisibilityofdatesforminimum biofuelblendsatforecourts? Firstmovercommercial disadvantagefor adoptinghigherblends ForecourtupgradesareneededforE20; investmentnecessitatesdisplacementof regular,moreprofitablefuelsales Singletankcommitmentlegislation Commercialnon- viabilityofsmall throughputforecourts Small/independentretailersarealready understrainandthisaffectsruralareas more;investmenttotransitiontoE10/E20 mightnotbeviablewithoutsupport Dedicatedstrategytomaintainforecourtsin someareas(likelyruralareasinshortterm butmorewidespreadissueovertime) Limitedrailpathway capacity Fueldeliverybyrailisbeingincreasingly displacedbycompetingservicesforrail pathwaysfrome.g.passengertrains Dedicatedrailpathway(capacity)for transportfueldistribution Forecourts Source:RicardoAEA(2011),ElementEnergyanalysis E10/E20
26 AlthoughblendshigherthanB7arenotexpectedatforecourts,private depotscanadopthigherblends 202020302050 Estimateofdemandbasedonshareofbuses,trucksandvansrefuellingthroughbunkeredsupplyatdepot–doesnotincludethedemand fromNonRoadMobileMachinery1BasedontheLowCVPEEFuelRoadmapandAutoCouncilEnergyroadmap Depots 2 3 7 8 2050(CCC targetscenario) 2050(moderate scenario) 20302020 Diesel Depotfleetsareincreasinglyutilisingpublicforecourtfacilitieswithfuelcardsinsteadofdepotfacilities Thisshiftinoperationisdrivenbytheeliminationofmany,oftencumbersome,responsibilitiesassociated withthemanagementofbunkeredfuelatdepots(e.g.mitigationofleakagestoavoidenvironmentaldamage, theftprevention,generalmaintenance) Demandfromfleetsthroughfuelcardseffectivelymaintainmanytrunkroadforecourtsbyprovidinga‘base load’andassociatedspending(e.g.atthekiosk).Afurthermoveawayfromdepotrefuellingtofuelcards couldsupportforecourts,however,thisbenefitislikelytobeoutweighedbytheoveralldecreaseinfleetfuel demand WhileblendshigherthanB7arenotexpectedatforecourts1,captivefleetsmightchoosetoadopthigher blendswhichcanbedeliveredtodepotsbyroadtanker,e.g.C.120busesarealreadyrunningonB20in London Totalfuel demand (Mt/year) Expectedissuesintheshort,mediumandlong-term ‘CCCTarget’ uptake scenario
27 Underanambitiousconversionprogramforcars/vans,theLPGpublic networkwouldhavetoincreasesignificantly EstimateofdemanddoesnotincludethedemandfromNonRoadMachinery.Source:EEforUKPLG(2013)1-Drivenfor examplebyincentivesrecognisingitsairqualitybenefits2-seewww.uklpg.org/shop/codes-of-practice/ Networktosupportincreaseddemand 147146 280130 808498 0 100 200 300 400 20402050 80 277 98 2 2020 148 364 20302015 Heavyvehicles LightvehiclesThousandtonnes/year 1,800 3,000 2,000 1,400 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 2015204020202030 Assuminganincreasedinaveragethroughputthroughmore frequentdeliveries LPGdemandprojectionasperdescribedinslide19. Assumesheavyvehicleswouldrefuelatdepot UndertheLPGuptakescenario1,demandforLPG atpublicforecourtcouldincreasetoc.280ktby 2030,fromunder100kttoday Todeliverthisdemand,thenetworkofpublicLPG sellingpointswouldneedtoincreasefrom1,400 toc.3,000.Thesemightbemainlynon-forecourt installationsastheyarecheaperandquickerto commission(CodeofPracticesinplace2butfewer restrictionsthanaforecourtintegrateddispenser) NewinvestmenttodeploynewLPGsellingpoints willbeentirelymarketdrivenbutwillalsorequire commitmentsignalfromUKgovernmentforuse ofLPGintransport BiopropaneisexpectedtoentertheUKmarketin theshorttermhowever,asarenewable‘drop-in’ fuelforconventionalLPG,itwillnotrequireany infrastructureupgrade TrucksandNonRoadMobileMachineries(forklifts, refrigerationunits,etc.)refuelindepots–there arenoparticularinfrastructurechallengesfora transitionto/increaseuseofbunkeredLPG LPG CorrespondingpublicLPGsellingpoints ForecastedLPGtransportfueldemand
28 Assumptions:upgradecost=£35k/site,capacitycost£100k/site(Source:ElementEnergyforDfT,2012),65%of existingforecourtshave3+pumpsandseparatestoragetanks,remainderhave<3pumpsandstoragetanks. Allforecourts in2015 £497m 50%of2015 activeforecourts 75%of2015 activeforecourts £249m £373m Upgrades/refurbishments Newcapacityinstallations Approximatelevelofinfrastructureinvestmentrequiredforatransitionforallpublicforecourts toadoptasingletankcommitmentforahigherblendbiofuel(e.g.E20) Approximately£500millionwouldberequiredtoadaptthecurrentUK publicforecourtnetworktobecompatiblewithhigherbiofuelblends Totalnumberof publicforecourts: Assumessamemarketshareof pumpsperforecourtfollowing 25%and50%closures Scenariowhereall forecourtpetrol demandismetwith E20by2050
29 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
30 ThereareanumberoffuelscurrentlynotusedintheUKtransport systemthatcouldhavearoleinfuture 1-OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,ElementEnergyforLowCVP(2014) AC=Airconditioned Methanol Theintroductionof preferentialfuelduty (expectedearlyintothenext Parliament)couldstimulate thedevelopmentofheavy dutyvehicleenginesworking onhighblendmethanol TheUK-basedcompany ZeroMiscurrentlyworkingon thisconcept Thereisalreadyabio- methanolsupplychain,albeit forlowblendapplications LiquidAir(LAIR) Recentstudieshaveoutlined thepotentialforLiquidAirin refrigerationapplicationsas wellashybridpowersystems ThreeUKbasedcompanies havedevelopedLAIRengines Existingproductionofliquid nitrogencanbeusedinthe shorttermbeforetransitioning toliquidair OLEVwillsupportDearman Engine’sdevelopmentofa prototypepowerandcooling systemforrefrigeratedtrucks andACbuses(aspartofan £11mfundingschemeto supportUKinnovation) E85 Othercountrieshave successfullydeployedflex- fuelvehicles,whichcan operateongasolineaswell asonE85(upto85%vol. blendofethanolwith gasoline),notablyBrazil Techno-economicmodelling studiessuggestE85isoneof themostcost-effectiveways ofincreasingtheshareof renewableenergyin transportfuels1 Thecaseofthreeniche/futurefuelswereinvestigatedinconsultationwithindustry: Niche/futurefuels
31 1ProductionofBio-methanol,TechnologyBrief(2013) Source:EnergyCarriersforPowertrains,ERTRAC2014,EuroCare(2015) Productionofmethanolismainlyfromfossil fuelsbutitcanbemadefromrenewable sources Methanolismainlyproducedfromfossilfuels suchasnaturalgasorcoal Bio-methanolisproducedfromrenewable resourcese.g.agriculturalwaste,wood CanalsobemadefromcapturedCO2 Whenproducedfromfossilfuels,costsare comparabletopetrolanddieselonanenergy basiswhilebio-methanolcostsare1.5-4times higher1 Methanolisusedasafeedstockforvarious productsandcanalsobeusedintransport Chemicalfeedstockfore.g.plastics,syntheticfibres andpaints Intransport,itisusedinvariousways: −Directlyasafuelorblendedwithpetrol −ConvertedtoDME,adieselreplacement −ConvertedtoMTBE,ablendcomponentofpetrol −Aspartofthebiodieselproductionprocess Methanolfuelcellsarebeingdeveloped,thoughmain industryfocusisonpurehydrogensystems SAFETY Blendsofpetrolandmethanolhaveanincreasedvapourpressure Methanolisrelativelylowintrinsictoxicitybutitismetabolisedintohighlytoxiccompounds(e.g.formaldehyde andformicacid);ingestionofc.50mlcancausedeathifnottreated FinlandtriedtosecureanEU-widebanontheuseofmethanolinmultipleproducts(e.g.windscreenwasherfluid) buttherequesthasbeenrejected Offerssimilarfiresafetychallengestoethanol Moredifficulttoignitethanpetrol,burnsslowerandwithacooler,invisibleflame Methanol Methanolisproducedfromnaturalgas,coalorbiomassandcanbe usedasapetrolblend,neatortoproduceMTBEandbiodiesel
32 TheUKdemandformethanoliscurrentlysmallthoughitsviability foruseinfuelisdemonstratedbyitspopularityinChina 1ProductionofBio-methanol,TechnologyBrief(2013),2RTFOBiofuelStatistics(2014),3Directive 2009/30/EC.Sources:MethanolInstituteBlog(12-09-2014),BrombergandCheng(2010) UK Thegovernmentisexpectedto legislatedearlyinthenext Parliamentareducedfuelduty of7.90p/ltoaqua-methanol (whichcannotbeblendedin petrol) Thedifferencebetweena- methanolrateandthemain ratewillbemaintaineduntil 2024(reviewedin2016) ECFuelQualityDirectivelimits thepercentageofmethanolin petrolto3%,withfurtherlimits ontotaloxygenates3 Approximately34.5ktofbio- methanolwereblendedin gasolineintheUKin2013-142 China China’stotalmethanol consumptioninfuelswas11Mt in2013,including4.6Mtusedin vehiclesand7Mtusedfor dimethylether Chinaproducesmethanol mainlyfromcoal,makingit cheaperthanimported petroleumfuels 160,000vehiclesinChinahave beenmodifiedtorunon methanolfuelblends AChinesenationalM15 standardisbeingpreparedand manylocalstandardsare alreadyinplace US InUS,largescaletestsin Californiain1980s-90s demonstratedmethanol’s viability Dedicatedandflexiblefuel vehiclesweredeployedand refuellinginfrastructurewas installed Lackofeconomicincentive(low petrolprice)andlackofpolitical advocacyledtomethanol’s failuretobecomeasignificant transportfuelintheUS Globalmethanolproductionin2013wasc.45Mt/year1 Methanol
33 Methanoliscorrosivetomanymaterialsbutis compatiblewithstainlesssteel,carbonsteeland methanol-compatiblefiberglass Forstorageatretailservicestations,new undergroundtankstoragemaybenecessary Existingtankscanbeconvertedbythorough cleaningand,wherenecessarytheuseofa methanol-compatibleliner Pumpsandpipingusedtomovemethanolfrom thestoragetanktothedispensermustbemadeof methanol-compatiblematerials Dispensersusedforpetroleumfuelstypically includeelementsthataremethanolincompatible (aluminium,brass,elastomers)sospecially developeddispensersmustbeusedtoavoidleaks Conventionalnozzlesdesignedformethanolare available,asisaspill-freenozzledevelopedbythe MethanolFuelCellAlliance Transportationofmethanolwouldbemainlybytruckandadaptation ofrefuellinginfrastructurewouldrequireinvestment Source:UseofMethanolasaTransportationFuel,TheMethanolInstitute,2007 1Methanolenergycontent=20MJ/kg(lowercalorificvalue),TotalHGVenergydemandin2050=264PJ Transportation Methanoltypicallyshippedbyrailwaytankcar, bargeandtrucktanker IntheUSsomeissentbypipeline(oververyshort distances) Therearedifficultieswithusingpipelinesusually usedforotherpetroleumproductsforshipping methanol −Degradationbyminglingwithotherproducts −Methanolwillremovewater/residuesinthe pipeline −Pipelinescanbeconvertedbycleaning,though theremaybematerialcompatibilityissues Assuming5%oftotalHGVenergydemandby2050, 0.6milliontonnesofmethanolcouldbeconsumed intheUK1 Forecourtstorageanddistribution Methanol
34 Liquidairenginetechnologycouldoffersignificantbenefits, particularlyinrefrigerationoftrucksandtrailers 1DearmanEngineCompany.TRU:TransportRefrigerationUnit Source:LiquidAirontheHighway,LiquidAirEnergyNetwork,2014 Variousliquidairenginetechnologieshavebeenproposed,ofwhichtheDearmanengineisthemostmature TheDearmanengineusestherapidexpansionofliquidairasitcomesincontactwithawarmheat exchangefluidtopowerapistonengine Thiscanbeusedinthreeconfigurations: OtherenginesusingliquidairhavebeenproposedincludingtheRicardosplitcycleliquidnitrogenengine andtheEpiQairrotaryliquidairengine Refrigeration RefrigerationinvansandsmalltrucksisprovidedbythemainICE,whileformostlargertrucksandtrailersitis providedbyanauxiliaryICE Mostrefrigeratedtrucksandtrailersusereddieselauxiliaryengines,whoseemissionsarecurrently unregulatedanduntreated,andcanaccountforover80%ofNOxandPMemissionsdespiteaccountingfor only20%oftheoverallfuelconsumption Usingliquidnitrogen(N2(l))evaporationforrefrigerationisbeingtrialledin6vehiclesintheUK(1000 worldwide),thoughthisrequiresancillarypowerfromthemainengine,increasingitsdieselconsumption TheuseofaDearmanliquidairenginewouldofferimprovedefficiencyoverN2(l)evaporationasitwould producebothcoolingandshaftpower Aprototypeiscurrentlyintestingandsmallseriesproductionisduetobeginin20161 Onitsown,drawingheatfromthe environment(suitableforshort range,lowpowerrequirement vehiclessuchasfork-lifttrucks) Asaheathybrid,usingexcess heatfromanICE(suitablefor buses,coaches,lorries,urban deliveryvehicles) Forrefrigerationina‘powerand cooling’configuration(TRUfor vans,lorries,trailers,shipping containers) Liquidair
35 Largevolumesofspareliquidnitrogenproductioncapacityexistin theUK,withindeliverydistanceofallmajorcities Source:LiquidAirontheHighway,LiquidAirEnergyNetwork(2014),DECCpressrelease“£8millionboost forenergystorageinnovation”(13/02/2014) LiquidairisnotcurrentlyproducedintheUK(liquidnitrogenwillbeused) Liquidairisnotyetproducedcommercially,butliquidnitrogen(LIN)is widelyproducedandcanbeusedforsimilarapplications LINisproducedatc.10AirSeparationUnits(ASUs)intheUKviaan energyintensiveprocess,generallyrunduringoffpeakelectricityhours AccordingtotheLiquidAirEnergyNetworkreport,usingthesefacilities duringthedaycouldprovide2,200tonnesofLINperday Majorindustrialusersaresuppliedbypipelinewhileothercustomers aresuppliedbyroadtanker–mostlargecitiesarewithinthe distributionrangeofoneormoreLINproductionsites LINisstillroutinelydeliveredtoareasoutsidethosecoveredonthis map,butcostsmaybehigher Anoperatorwouldneedtorentacryogenictankandpumpinorderto storeanddispenseLIN CurrentUKlocationswithspareLINproduction capacitywithindicativedeliveryradius(c.350km) Liquidair DECCwillsupportaprojecttodemonstratea5MW/15MWhLiquidAir EnergyStorage(LAES)system,duetostartoperationin2015in Manchester(ledbyHighviewPowerandViridor) Highviewhavesuccessfullypilotedtheirenergystorageconceptata 350kW/2.5MWhplantwithSSEsince2010 Thisnewprojectwillassessthepotentialforliquidairtechnologyto addressgrid-scaleenergystorageneedsandsupporttheintegrationof intermittentrenewablegeneration
36 Sufficientproductioncapacityexistsforearlydeploymentandfuture newcapacitycouldexploit‘wastecoolth’fromLNGregasification Source:LiquidAirontheHighway,LiquidAirEnergyNetwork,2014 Policy/Regulationissues Thereissufficientspareproductioncapacityfor pilotschemesandearlydeployment TheLiquidAirEnergyNetworkreportpredictsthat consumptionofLINwillbe4.1ktpdforrefrigeration alonein2025 Thisimpliestheneedforinstallationofliquefaction capacityforanadditional1.9ktpdLINorliquidair bythisdate ProductionofliquidairischeaperthanLIN productionandconsumes20%lessenergy,asthere isnoneedtoseparatethecomponentgases TheLiquidAirEnergyNetworkreportsuggeststhat ifthereiswidespreadtake-up,newcapacitywould berequiredsoonestinEastLondonandtheWest Midlands InJapan,ASUsarebeinglinkedtoLNG regasificationterminalstousetheirwaste‘coolth’ toimproveliquefactionefficiency(usingtwothirds lesselectricity) ThiswouldbepossibleintheUKatitsthreeLNG inputterminalswherere-gasificationtakesplace Regulationofemissionsofauxiliarydiesel enginesusedforrefrigerationwouldencourage theuptakeoflowemissionreplacements Liquidnitrogeniscurrentlyseenasanenergy intensiveindustrialcommodityandistaxed accordingly,asituationwhichcouldbeamended tosupportitsuseintransport Futuredemand 0 2 4 6 8 10 4.1 Demandincluding heathybrid 9.6 Demandfrom refrigerationonly Heathybriddeliveryvehicles Refrigeratedtrucks Refrigeratedtrailers 2025ProjectedLINdemand (ktpd) Liquidair
37 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
38 Infrastructuregrowth entirelymarketdriven Operatorstrialnichefuelwith smallnumbersoffleetvehicles Keyfindingsfromtrialsinform futureoperatorinvestment Withapredicteddemanddecreaseforliquidfuels,forecourtsmay havetointegratenewfuelsand/orreceivesupportincertainlocations Continuedslowrateofclosuresfromc.8,600stations Increasedcoexistenceofmulti-fuel infrastructuretomaximiseutilisation Public forecourts Growingproportionofbunkereddemand willshifttoutiliseforecourtswithfuelcards Private depots 20152050202020302025 Supportmeasuresforsomeareasmightbeneededtomaintainnetwork c.£250m-£600minvestmentrequiredfor upgradesandcapacityinstallations Trialintegrationofmultiple fuelinfrastructures Dashedlinesrepresent highuncertainty Majormilestone /enabler c.2,000c.1,400c.3,000 Nichefuels Diesel Integration E20forecourt investment Coverage PotentialtransitiontoE20would requireupgradestoexistingforecourts Dependentonfeasibilityof multi-fuelintegration and/orspecificsupport mechanisms Publicselling points LPG Depotinfrastructurefullycommercial–growthtofollowdemand Cars Vans HDVs Thousandvehicles Projectionsarebasedonpolicy- leduptakescenariospresented onpage21 Uptakescenariosinformed quantificationofinfrastructure requirements Liquidfuelvehiclestock 6,000- 31,000 1,000- 5,000 360 32,000 4,300 700 32,000 4,300 700 30,000 4,000 700 By2050carsaremostlyRE-EVs/PHEVs 50-80% decreasein fuel demandon 2015levels Infrastructureroadmap 2050202020302025 c.2,000
39 Delaystoplanningtomodifyforecourtsshouldbeminimisedtoavoid investoruncertaintyandfinancialsupportmaybeneededincertainareas Stationeconomicsandsupport1 Steepdeclineindemandbeyond 2030islikelytosignificantlyimpact commercialviabilityoffuelretailing (particularlyforsmallpublic forecourtslocatedinruralareasof theUKtostartwith,butmore widespreadissueinlongterm) Atransitiontoahigherbiofuel blendwillrequirelargeinvestments fortankreplacementsand/or upgrades Recommendations CentralGovernment:Consider mechanismstoensureminimumfilling stationcoverage,particularlyinrural areas LocalAuthorities:Identifyanylocal supplyshortagesandforecourtsmost affectedbydecliningfueldemand Planningpermissionguidance2 Acquiringplanningpermissionto upgradeexistingforecourt facilitiescanoftenbedelayedor rejected Delaysforupgradeapprovalcan causepartialunavailabilityand negativelyimpactcommercial operation,therebydirectly acceleratingforecourtclosure, particularlyforunderutilised areas Recommendations CentralGov.andLAs:Workwith regulatorstoidentifycommoncauses ofdelaysandimproveplanning permissionguidelinesasappropriate Innovationopportunities3 Biodieselandbioethanol requireadditionalhandling considerations Higherbioethanolblendscan damageregularrefuelling facilitiesbycausingstress corrosioncrackingofsteel anddegradationof elastomers,therefore significantinvestmentwillbe requiredtoupgradeexisting infrastructure Recommendations R&Dbodies:Investigatecost reductionopportunitiesfor stationupgradestohandlehigher biofuelblends Source:ElementEnergy
40 Asdecliningliquidfueldemandcausesstationclosures,facilitating optimaluseofremainingforecourtsislikelytoberequired Multi-fuelinfrastructureintegration4 Thetransportsystemisexpectedtobedecarbonised throughmultiplealternativefuels/energyvectors Existingforecourtsarestrategicallysitedtooptimally servicedriverneedsbymajorroadsandjunctions Co-locatinginfrastructureformultiplefuelsat forecourtscouldensureutilisationismaintained Recommendations Regulators:Developstandardsforco-locatingmultiple infrastructuresandworkwithcentralgovernmentto developplanningguidanceforLocalAuthorities R&Dbodies:Identifytechnicalbarrierstoco-locating multipleinfrastructures(e.g.highpowerrapidcharge pointsadjacenttoliquidfuels) Industryandgov.:LiaisewithAPEAtoupdateBlueBook1 accordingly Communicationofforecourtavailability5 Asforecourtclosurescontinue(andnew blendsareintroduced),therewillbean increasingneedtoensuredriverscaneasily accessinformationdetailingstation&blend availabilityandlocation Communicationsystemstoinformdriversof real-timefuelavailabilityatnearbypublic forecourtssupportedbyanationaldatabase couldbedeveloped Centralcoordinationofsoftware developmentwillensureaconsistent interfacebetweendriversandpublic infrastructuree.g.allowingusewithexisting navigationsystemproviders Recommendations Industry:Developcommunicationsystem + 1NationalGuidancedocumentjointlypublishedbytheEnergyInstituteandAssociationforPetroleumand Explosives(APEA)usedtoassessandsignoffthesafetyofnewforecourtinstallationsandupgrades
41Source:ElementEnergyandindustryinput Methanol Consultedindustrystakeholdersare doubtfulofthepotentialof methanolintheUK,onthebasisof safetyconcernsandneedfornew HGVsenginedevelopment(HGVs aretargetvehiclesformethanolin theUK) Furthermore,theairquality benefitsandCO2benefitsarenot unclear IfusedforUKtransport,highblend methanolwilllikelybebunkered (notatforecourts) UKwouldneedtodevelopcodesof practiseforstorageandhandlingof methanolaswellasplanning guidance;inputfromindustry playersandcountriesfamiliarwith methanolwillbevaluable LiquidAir(LAIR) Existingliquidnitrogen(LIN)production willbeusedfirst,beforededicated liquidairproductionisstarted LIN/LAIRwillbeusedmostlyforcooling and/orforhybridapplications,as opposedtobecomingaprimemover ItisexpectedLAIRwillbeused exclusivelybyfleetswithdepot refuelling Specialistskilledworkerswillbe neededforliquidairdistribution(e.g. cryogenicengineersandtechnicians) Skill-setoverlapwithothersectorsmust beinvestigatedandconsistenttraining programmesdevelopedasrequired ProductionofLIN/LAIRrequire electricitybuttheenergyvectorcan alsobeusedasaformofenergystorage E85 Consultedindustry stakeholdersaredoubtfulof thepotentialofE85,onthe basisofthelackofvehicle supply,barrierstoadoption ofnewgradeatinland terminalsandforecourtsand lowenergycontent(adding issuetoconsumer acceptanceandfuelduty issueifpriceparitywith E5/E10(perkm)mustbe supported) AdoptionofE85couldnot bepossibleifE20isadopted (limittonumberofgrades) Distributionwouldbeasfor E10:blendedatinland terminalsandtransportedby truckstoforecourts Liquidairhasthehighestpotentialanddevelopingadistribution infrastructurefortransportmightrequireinvestmentinUKskills
42 Contents −Introductionandcontext −Backgroundandstatusquo −Futurerefuelinginfrastructurerequirementsand barrierstodeployment −Thecaseofniche/futurefuels −Summaryroadmapandrecommendations −Appendix
43 References −AEAforDfT,Modes3study,2011 −BPStatisticalEnergyReview,2014 −BrombergandCheng,MethanolasanalternativetransportationfuelintheUS,2010 −DearmanEngineCompanywebsite,2015 −DECC,EnergyconsumptionintheUK,2014 −DfT,RoadlengthsinGreatBritain,2013 −DfT,RTFOBiofuelStatistics,2014 −DUKESChapter3/4/5,2015 −Ecofys,UKBiofuelIndustryoverview,2013 −ElementEnergyforBirminghamCityCouncil,ACityBluePrintforLowCarbonFuelRefuellingInfrastructure,2015 −ElementEnergyforDfT,Ultralowemissionvanstudy,2012 −ElementEnergyforLowCVP,ScenariosfortheimplementationofthetransportelementoftheREDto2020,2013 −ElementEnergy,OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,2014 −ERTRAC,EnergyCarriersforPowertrains,2014 −ETI,AnaffordabletransitiontosustainableandsecureenergyforlightvehiclesintheUK,2013 −EuropeanParliamentandCouncil,Directive2009/30/EC,2009 −IEA-ETSAPandIRENA,ProductionofBio-methanol,TechnologyBrief,2013 −JRC,WTTanalysisoffutureautomotivefuelsandpowertrainsintheEuropeancontext,2014 −LiquidAirEnergyNetwork,LiquidAirontheHighway,2014 −MethanolInstituteBlog,2014 −RicardoAEA,AssessmentoftheexistingUKinfrastructurecapacityandvehiclefleetcapabilityfortheuseofbiofuels,2011 −UKPIA,StatisticalReview,2014
44 Acronyms AFVAlternativeFuelVehicle ASUAirSeparationUnit BtLBiomass-to-Liquids CCCCommitteeonClimateChange CHPCombinedHeatandPower COMAHControlofMajorAccidentHazard DECCDepartmentofEnergy&ClimateChange DfTDepartmentforTransport DUKESDigestofUnitedKingdomEnergyStatistics ECEuropeanCommission EEElementEnergy ETBEEthylTertiaryButylEther ETIEnergyTechnologiesInstitute EUEuropeanUnion FAMEFattyAcidMethylEsters FLTForkLiftTruck HGVHeavyGoodsVehicle HSEHealthandSafetyExecutive ICEInternalCombustionEngine LCNLowCarbonNetwork LINLiquidNitrogen LPGLiquefiedPetroleumGas MTBEMethyltert-butylether MtMilliontonnes NGNationalGrid OEMOriginalEquipmentManufacturer OLEVOfficeforLowEmissionVehicles PMParticulateMatter R&DResearchandDevelopment REDRenewableEnergyDirective RTFORenewableTransportFuelObligation TEN-TTrans-EuropeanTransportNetworks TRUTransportRefrigerationUnit TSBTechnologyStrategyBoard TTWTank-to-Wheel UCOUsedCookingOil ULEVUltra-LowEmissionsVehicle WTTWell-to-Tank WTWWell-to-Wheel
45 TotalUKvehiclestock(millionvehicles) Futurevehicleprojectionsusefigures providedbyDfT: −Carsstocktoincreasefromc.30 millionto39millionandc.550billion vehiclekmtravelledby2050 −Vansstocktoincreasefromc. 3.5millionto7millionby2050 −HGVsstocktoincreasefromc.500 thousandstodaytoc.630thousand by2050 −Busesstockandvehiclekmtravelled tostaybroadlyconstantataround 170thousandunitsand5billion vehiclekmtravelled Overallfleetandkmincreaseofc.40% between2015and2050 ThemodellingofthefutureUKfleetisbasedonDfTtrafficandpark sizeprojections 7 5 4 4 30 39 20302020 37 32 2015 34 +37% 2050 47 41 35 CarsVansHGVsBuses 103 142 82 72 413 449 +43% 2015 517 5 512556 27 2050 738 2030 305 5 528 650 2020 35 564 Totalvehiclekmtravelled(billionkm) Source:DfTRoadtransportforecasts(availableonline)aswellasdirectsupplyofNationalTravel Modeloutputsforthecaseofcars
46 Thepowertrain/fueluptakescenariosunderpinningthe InfrastructureRoadmaparepolicyled Uptakescenariosfocusonalternativefuels Thescenariosusedarenotintendedtocoverallpossibleoutcomesbutinsteadfocuson caseswithambitiousuptakeofalternativefuels Scenariosarepolicyled,typicallybasedontargetssetbytheCommitteeonClimateChange (sourcesshownnext);theyareillustrativeratherthanbasedondetailedofnewmodelling technologycostsandcustomerdecisionmakingbehaviour Thereforetheuptakescenariosrepresentpossiblefutureswherelowandultralowemission powertrainsaresuccessfullydeployed FocusisintendedtoprovidethemostinterestinginputsfortheanalysisoftheInfrastructure Roadmap–e.g.a‘businessasusual’casewherepetrolanddieselcontinuetoprovideover 98%ofroadtransportenergywouldnotrequirenewrefuelling/recharginginfrastructure InaccordancewiththeFuelRoadmap,blendshigherthanB7arenotconsideredforthe mainstreamfuelsandE20isconsideredonlyfromthe2030s Scenarioshaveenabledfutureinfrastructurerequirementstobequantifiedandupfrontcosts capitalcostsforpublicinfrastructurehavebeenestimated.Costofsettingnewfuel productionassets,distribution/logisticscostsandgeneralinfrastructureoperatingcostshave notbeenconsidered.Costsofotherincentivesthatmightberequiredtoachievetheuptake scenarios(e.g.vehiclegrants)havennotbeenestimatedinthisstudy
47 Overviewofthepowertrainoptionsconsideredandkeysources CarsandvansBusesHGVsNRMM HGV=HeavyGoodsVehicles,NRMM=NonRoadMobileMachinery ICE:petrol,diesel, LPG,(gas),(H2in earlyyears) EVs:BatteryEVs, plug-inhybridEVs, fuelcell(FCEVs) TheCarbonPlan andthe Committeeon ClimateChange’s recommendations H2MobilityPhase 1report,2013 Historictrendsfor petrol/dieselsplit ICE:diesel, (bio)methane EVs:BEV,PH/RE, FCEV (Liquidairfor cooling/hybrid power) Currentand announced commercial availability,policy drivers Alternative Powertrainfor Urbanbuses,2012 CCC–4thCarbon BudgetReview ICE:diesel, (bio)methane, (methanol) EVs-inlighter segmentsonly Currentand announced commercial availability DfTHGVTask Force TSB-DfTLow CarbonTruckTrial CCC–4thCarbon BudgetReview ICE:diesel,LPG, (gas),Liquidairfor refrigerationunits (Batteriesand FuelCells–in some applications) Dataonfuelusage ofNRMMis sparse Morequalitative approach suggested Parenthesesindicatesthepowertrain/fueloptionisexpectedtostaynicheinthe2050horizon RELEVANT POWERTRAINS /FUELS KEY SOURCES / INDICATORS
48 Carsandvansareexpectedtotransitiontozeroemissionpowertrains fortheUKtomeetitsGHGreductiontargets Source:ElementEnergy Carsandlightcommercialvehicles(‘vans’)aretreatedtogetherastheyhavethe sametechnologyoptionsandfallunderthesameelectrificationtargetsinthe CarbonPlan. Salesofvansrunningonmethanearenotconsideredinthemodellingonthebasis ofthelowcommercialavailability(only2modelsonthemarket),lackofpolicy driversforgrowthandaforementionedelectrificationtargets.Anygasdemand resultingfromvanswouldbesmallenoughtobeconsiderednegligible,in comparisontothepotentialgasdemandfromtrucks. DualfuelvansrunningondieselandhydrogenandRangeExtenderFuelCell electricvans(beingdeployedcurrentlyintheUKandincontinentalEurope)arenot modelledexplicitly.Instead,theirhydrogendemandisaccountedforinthe‘FCEV’ heading.Thespecificrequirementsfordualfuelandrange-extenderH2vansare howeverconsideredintheInfrastructureRoadmap(e.g.dispensingpressure).
49 Sources:ElementEnergy,UKH2MobilityreportPhase1(2013),PathwaystohighpenetrationofEVs,EEfortheCCC(2013), OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,EEforLowCVP(2014) 2030 60% 30% 2020 100% 2050 100% 3% 2015 9% Moderateambition CCCtargets <1% MarketshareofEVs(newsales) 50%60% 50% 75% 50%39%35%50% 0% 20302050 10% 15% 2020 15%0% 100% 2050 50% 2015 1% BEVFCEVPH/REEV BreakdownofmarketshareofEVs TwoEVuptakescenarioshave beenused: −‘CCCtargets’:EVsreach60% marketshareby2030andZero Emissionvehiclesreach100% ofmarketsharebefore2050 −‘Moderateambition’:the 2030CCCtargetsarenotmet butEVuptakeisnonetheless high(30%newsales);by2050 EVsrepresent100%ofsales butaremainlyPHEVsorRE- EVs,i.e.stillreliantonliquid fuels Scenarios WestudiedinfrastructurerequirementssetbytheCommitteeonClimate ChangetargetsaswellasacasewithaslowerEVuptake
50Sources:ElementEnergy,SMMTdatafor2000-2013sales,UKLPGforLPG2013figures SalesofnewcarswithInternalCombustionEnginevehicles-split betweenspark-ignition(‘petrol’type)andcompressionignition engines(‘diesel’type) 37%46%51%50%50% 86% 63%54%49%50%50% 20052000 14% 2020-502013 100% 20102012 CompressionignitionSpark-ignition PROPOSED SCENARIO RiseofdieselStabilisation 2013 5.0% 2030 0.6% Shareofspark-ignitioncars(ICEandHEV)stockthatrunonLPG c.112,000units c.800,000units Weassumedthatthecurrentsplitof petrol/dieselenginesfornewcars(50/50) ismaintainedgoingforward InlinewiththeFuelsRoadmap,dieselwill beB7(EN590)withanincreasingamount ofdrop-inrenewablediesel–i.e.no compatibilityissuetobeconsideredforthe distributioninfrastructure Forpetrolengines,wewillevaluatethe amountof: −EthanolneedediftheE10becomes themaingradeby2020andE20by 2032 −LPGneededforacasewheretherate ofconversion(orsalesifOEMsupply isputinplace)acceleratestoreach 5%ofthepetrolcarstock(equivalent toc.40,000conversionsperyear until2030) Allnewvansareassumedtorunondiesel Scenarios Weassumedcontinuationoftheobservedpetrol/dieselshareforcars andmodelledanambitiousLPGuptake Decreasingstock post-2030asnonew conversion/salesare assumed
51 Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatisticsTableVEH0601,LowCVPLowCarbonEmissionBusMarketMonitoring(Jan2015),CCC, 4thCarbonbudget,20131-AlternativePowertrainforUrbanbusesstudy(2012) 30% 10% 60% Singledeckbus/coach Doubledeckbus/coach Minibus UKbusfleet,c.165,000vehicles: UKlowemissionbuses(allsingleordoubledeck, nomini-buses) 274 12785 18 2014 1,787 FCEV BatteryEV Biomethane Micro-hybrid Hybrid ScenarioCurrentUKbusmarket Werampedupthealternativefuelmarketsharefrom 2030,inlinewiththeEuropeanstudy1thatsuggeststhat theTCOofbatteryandFCe-citybuseswillbecome comparableandcompetitivewithdieselandCNGbusesby 20301 Weassume90%uptakeforZeroEmissionVehiclesby2050 Thisislowerthatthe100%FCEVsassumedintheCCC projections,toreflectthefactthatdoubledeckerbuses (andbusesinhighlyruralareas)mightrequiregas 0% 92% 60% 80% 10% 40% 5% 15% 15%5% 2020 100% 2050 50% 20402030 2% 10% 10% 4% Newbusessalesscenario: ‘Diesel’referstoablendofB7 anddrop-inrenewablediesel, aspertheFuelsRoadmapDiesel,includeshybridBEV FCEV(Bio)methane Buseshavemanypowertrainoptionsbutoverallsmallfuelusesowe usedonlyonescenario,wherealltechnologiesseehighsales
52 Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatistics,BirminghamCityBlueprintforlowcarbonfuelsrefuellinginfrastructure,EEfor BirminghamCityCouncil(2015),LowEmissionHGVTaskForce(2014),HMRC(2014),CCC,4thCarbonbudget,2013 29%32% 39% >31tGVW-articulated >8tto31tGVW-mostlyrigid >3.5tto8tGVW-rigid UKHGVfleet,c.460,000vehicles: UKlowemissiontrucks-estimates <100 c.1,000 2014 Methane BatteryEV 94%79% 0% 45% 20% 5%5% 20% 10%1% 2050 0%1%10% 40% 20%15% 2020 1% 2040 100% 10% 25% 2030 Newtrucksalesscenario: Gastrucksallover18tGVW,mostly dualfuel(dieselandmethane) Electrictrucksallunder18tGVW FCEVlighttrucksatearlydemostage ‘Diesel’referstoablend ofB7anddrop-in renewablediesel,asper theFuelsRoadmap Diesel,includeshybrid Methane BEV FCEV DieselLPGdualfuel ScenarioCurrentUKHeavyGoodsVehiclemarket WetomodelledaHighAlternativeFuelUptakecasewhere bothpureelectricandgastrucksreachasignificantsales levelsintheirrespectivemarkets(lightandheavytrucks) FCEVsalsocapturealargeshareofthemarket,asperthe CCC’svisionoftheroleofhydrogen ForHeavyGoodsVehicles,wetestedahighuptakeofbothelectric (batteryandfuelcell)andgastrucks
53 Non-RoadMobileMachinerytypicallyrefuelsinprivatedepots/premises butthecaseofLPG,liquidairandhydrogenwereconsidered Source:ElementEnergyanalysisbased,onDfTstatisticsrequestedinJan2015andNon-RoadMobileMachineryUsage, LifeandCorrectionFactorsAEAforDt(2004),industryinputforLPGuseinforklift 10% 7% 23% 17% 42% Forklifts Otheroff-roads Agriculturaltractors RefrigerationunitsonHGVs Portablegeneratorsets Otheroff-roads:TelescopicHandlers,BackhoeLoaders,Excavators,Cranes,Bulldozers,Compressorsetc. UKNRMMfleetforindustry,constructionand agriculture,c.700,000unitsin2014: (CouldtransitiontoLPG,BatteryandFuelCellpacksforsomeuses) LPG,couldtransitiontoLiquidAir UseofLPG(alreadyusedbyc.30%offorklifts)andbatteries couldincrease,couldtransitiontohydrogen (Limitedoptions,possibly(bio)methaneorhighblendbiodiesel) Scenario (LPG,limitedalternativefueloptions) Beyondtheblendingofrenewabledrop-indieselindiesel, optionsforcleanerfuelsare: Wetoconsidered(qualitatively,consideringthe lackofdisaggregateddataonfueluse)the infrastructureimpactsof: −AtransitiontoLiquidAirforHGV refrigerationunits −AnincreaseinLPG,batteryandhydrogenuse forforklifts
54 Appendix–Therearebroadlytwotypesofrefuellinginfrastructure forliquidfuelsintheUK Source:ElementEnergy,DfTModes3study(2011) Largefleetoperatorsincludingpublic transportoperators,hauliers,logistics companies,forkliftoperatorstendtooperate designatedrefuellingdepotssuitedtotheir ‘returntobase’operations Suchfacilitiestendtobeprivateand exclusivelyserviceasinglevehicletype Mostbusesandheavygoodvehiclesrefuel indepots–shareofdieselsuppliedthrough depot: 90%forbuses,40%forcoaches 80%articulatedtrucks,45%rigidtrucks Refuellingatprivatedepots:c.25%fuelsalesRefuellingatpublicforecourts:c.75%fuelsales Generally,publicvehiclerefuelling(passenger cars,vans,motorbikes,scooters)isfacilitatedby oneoftheUK’sc.8,600forecourts Refuellingforecourtsarepublicallyaccessible andaregenerallyownedandoperatedbylarge oilcompanies(e.g.Shell,BP,Esso,etc.), independentretailersandsupermarketchains

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