3. What threatens your business?
• Fuel demand is dropping off
• Alternative fuels are expanding market share
• Automakers are shifting focus to new
technologies
• Consumers are changing behavior…dramatically
• Alternatives to vehicle ownership are gaining
traction
4. Questions I Have…
• What will you sell in 15 years?
• What will I drive in 15 years?
• Will my daughter even have/want to drive in 15
years?
7. There will be more drivers…
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
ThousandMilesperDriver
MillionLicensedDrivers
Licensed Drivers and Miles Traveled
Licensed Drivers Miles per Driver
2015-2035
VMT per Driver: +7.8%
Licensed Drivers: +17.4%
Source: U.S. EIA
8. but they will travel further on less.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Cars - 57% more efficient
New Cars MPG Registered Cars MPG CAFE for Cars
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Trucks - 54% more efficient
New Trucks MPG Regisered Trucks MPG CAFE for Trucks
Registered vehicles will be 55% more efficient in 2035 vs 2015.
Source: U.S. EIA
9. 1950’s Vision of the Future
The Self-Driving Car
of the Future,
advertisement for
“America's Electric
Light & Power
Companies”,
Saturday Evening
Post, 1950s. The
picture shows self-
driving cars on an
electric super-
highway. Credit: The
Everett Collection.
15. Impact of VW Scandal
Response % Consumers
Much more positive towards diesel vehicles 5%
Somewhat more positive towards diesel vehicles 9%
About the same as before 73%
Somewhat more negative towards diesel vehicles 8%
Much more negative towards diesel vehicles 6%
Have your views on diesel vehicles changed over the past 3-6
months? My views are…
September 2015, n=1,200
Note: This survey was fielded right after VW scandal broke.
16. Diesel Sentiments – Feb 2016
• 45% of car buyers would consider diesel
– Compared with 42% and 41% in 2015 and 2014
• Why?
– 51% said better fuel economy
• Why not?
– 48% said fuel too expensive
– Only 8% said recent scandals
17. Biofuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
BillionGallonsperYear
RFS E10
If every gallon gasoline contains 10% ethanol,
21 billion gallons of additional renewable fuels
must be blended into fuels market by 2022.
25. EVs in U.S. Plug In Hybrids in U.S.
Electric is growing
Limitations: Range
Recharge Time
Price
26. 2016 Nissan Leaf
• 107 Miles per charge
• 80% recharge in 30 mins
• Starting at $29,000
2017 Chevrolet Bolt
• 200 miles per charge
• 80% recharge in 1 hour
• Starting at $35,000
Note: Sufficient range does not require $100,000 price tag.
Electric is getting better
27. What about emissions?
Power Plants in US in 2015
286 coal fired
780 petroleum
803 natural gas
32 nuclear
889 hydro
272 other renewable
Vehicles in US in 2015
235.6 million light duty
7.8 million med/heavy duty
28. Hydrogen Fuel Cell
• Grid-independent EV
• ZEV, CAFE, LCFS
• Range – 300+
• Fuel Time – 3-5 mins
• Status:
– ~15 stations
– ~$2 million per
– ~100-150 vehicles
40. Final Thoughts
• Liquid fuels dominate, but decline in volume
• Regulations favor electric, market developing
– Long ramp up, but then quick growth
• Gaseous fuels seem destined for HD market
• Technology advances could render obsolete:
– Car ownership
– Driver training programs
• Next generation expects autonomous, electric
car sharing to dominate the market