The document summarizes the current state and future trends of logistics warehousing in the North West of England. It finds that the majority of large warehouse space is concentrated near major population centers and transportation infrastructure like motorways. However, rail-connected warehouse space in the North West lags other regions like the Midlands. The document predicts growing demand for more sustainable rail freight transport due to issues like congestion and air quality. This will require developing more rail-served warehouses and cross-dock facilities to reduce road mileage. The North West region needs to identify and plan additional strategic rail-served sites to capitalize on future growth opportunities in rail freight.

1. Logistics Warehousing in the North West:
Current Position and Future Trends
Place North West Logistics Conference
Science and Industry Museum, Manchester
13 June 2019
Michael Hatfield

2. 1. Current Warehousing Capacity: England and Wales
• All units greater than 8,000 sqm (Source: Valuation Office Agency Rating List 2018)
Region Floor Space Market Share Number Units Market Share Mean sqm/
(000s sqm) (%) (%) unit
East Midlands 8,461 20% 362 17% 23,373
West Midlands 6,972 17% 371 17% 18,792
North West 6,590 16% 345 16% 19,101
Yorks and Humber 5,246 12% 262 12% 20,024
East of England 4,410 10% 223 10% 19,778
South East 3,748 9% 200 9% 18,741
South West 2,457 6% 121 6% 20,307
London 1,954 5% 143 7% 13,663
North East 1,188 3% 68 3% 17,471
Wales 1,155 3% 63 3% 18,338
Total 42,182 2,158 19,547

3. 2. Current Warehousing Capacity: England and Wales
• Concentration of floor space
reflecting
– Location of population (demand)
– Infrastructure (predominantly
motorway network but also key
railway lines)
– Land values (London/South East
effectively under-warehoused)

4. 3. Current Warehouse Capacity: North West
• Warehouses: by size and
location in North West
• Concentrations of large scale
floor space are where we
would expect them to be!
Source: VOA Rating List 2018

5. 4. Rail/Water Connected Floor Space in North West
• c3% of national stock is
located at rail-served
sites
Floor Space
(000s sqm)
Trafford Park 343
3MG 60
Knowsley 8
Port of Liverpool 69
Sub-total 480
Rest of North West 6,110
% Rail-served 8%
Source: VOA Rating List 2018

6. 5. Rail Connected Floor Space in North West and Midlands
• Comparison with Midlands:
– 11% rail-served
– All modern sites developed over last 20
years
• Also a ‘pipeline’ of sites with available plots
or at various stages of development
• Contrast with North West – almost no plot
availability and ‘pipeline’ of sites
– Shop Direct leaving North West for East
Midlands Gateway
Floor Space
(000s sqm)
DIRFT (I & II) 570
Hams Hall 310
Birch Coppice 380
East Midlands DC 153
ProLogis Coventry 138
Sub-total 1,551
Rest of East and West Midlands 13,882
% Rail-served 11%
Source: VOA Rating List 2018

7. 6. Key Future Issues
• Highway congestion – strategic network and urban areas
• Need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
– UK target of 80% GHG reduction by 2050 (3% pa reduction)
• Poor air quality in major urban centres
– DEFRA Clean Air Strategy and TfL Clean Air Zone
• HGV driver shortages
– Average age 56yrs
• Continuing growth of e-commerce (home deliveries) and convenience shopping (little
and often)
– Growth of ‘white van’ and small HGV movements in urban environments
• Connected HGVs (still need a driver) and autonomous HGVs (long way off)

8. 7. Key Future Issues – The Implications
• Road-only operating methods across the supply chain (using diesel engine vehicles) will
need to change
– Congestion and driver shortages will increase operator costs
– GHG emissions – freight transport needs to play its part
– Air quality – TfL expand scope of Clean Air Zone and other cities examining similar
schemes
• Greater role for rail freight in the supply chain
– Viable long-term replacement for diesel HGVs is long way off
– Most immediate way of reducing GHG emissions
• In North West – Enhanced role for waterborne freight (Manchester Ship Canal)
• Use of battery powered light goods vehicles for deliveries into urban areas
– Range issues

9. 8. Rail Freight Trends
• Increasing market share for
intermodal rail freight
– Primarily on trunk hauls
from ports
– Some retailers now using
rail for secondary flows
– Road hauliers have entered
rail market (e.g. Stobart,
Maritime, Malcolm)
• To date, principally driven by
cost savings (user benefits) vs
road haulage
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Intermodal Lolo container Road goods lifted

10. 9. Intermodal Rail Freight Forecasts
• Future growth of intermodal rail freight, though linked to development of new
rail-served warehousing
– Removes the need for road transfer of goods from rail-head to warehouse
thereby reducing door-to-door costs
Million tonnes Billion tonne-km Daily trains EXTRA RAIL LINKED WAREHOUSING
2016/7 19.1 6.8 145
2023/4 27.3 9.8 200 +0.8 million sqm (+2% national stock)
2033/4 38.4 15.1 292 +3.3 million sqm (+7% national stock)
2043/4 54.6 21.4 414 +5.2 million sqm (+11% national stock)
MDS Transmodal rail freight demand forecasts for Network Rail
Draft for consultation, closing 21 June 2019

11. 10. Land and Property Implications
• Given the continual need to build new capacity:
– Deliver a much larger proportion of new-build warehouses at rail-served sites
(water connections an added advantage)
– North West – ‘up our game’ and create a genuine ‘pipeline’ of sites
• Large sites
– Appropriate plot sizes for modern distribution centres
– Generates sufficient baseload traffic for viable rail freight services
• Located on the urban fringe
– Overcome range issues associated with battery powered ‘white vans’
– Labour supply
• Space for a modern intermodal terminal
• Where suitable railway lines coincide with motorway junctions

12. 11. Land and Property Implications
• Rail-road cross-dock facilities
– Express e-commerce/parcels traffic transfer into appropriate urban freight
vehicles (battery powered light goods vehicles) for the ‘final mile’
– Parcel operators working with Network Rail to identify locations for such facilities
in London
• Use of main line stations been mooted
– Not suitable facilities due to capacity and range of practical issues
• Sites will need to be flexible in design/configuration to accommodate
– Traditional large distribution centre buildings
– Smaller rail-road cross docking facilities

13. 12. Land and Property Implications
• The North West ‘pipeline’
– Port Warrington
– Port Salford
– Parkside (St Helens)
– Kingsway Business Park, Rochdale (could it be served from close by
Calder valley line?)
– Seaforth (Port of Liverpool)
– Where next - Risley, Fiddlers Ferry, Heywood, Wigan?
• Take rail freight growth away from congested Piccadilly-Deansgate rail
corridor
– Passenger benefits

14. 13. Barriers to Development
• Planning system
– Large sites, road and railways coinciding, urban fringe – few in number, often
Greenbelt or similar designation
– Planning consents difficult to obtain
– Development Consent Order process for sites >60ha does appear to be working
(DIRFT III and East Midlands Gateway)
– At least 3 years
• Railway network capacity and capability
– Rail freight growth may be stalling due to lack of capacity
– Trans-Pennine upgrade: what will it provide for freight?
– ETCS, HS2 and NPR long term
– Potentially further restricts number of sites available; developers will need to be
satisfied that capacity is available.

15. Thank You
Email: mike.hatfield@mdst.co.uk
Web: mdst.co.uk
Twitter: @mdstransmodal