The Severn Estuary Forum is a key annual event in its eighth year and hosted by the Severn Estuary Partnership: an independent, estuary-wide initiative, involving all those interested in the management of the estuary, from planners to port authorities, fishermen to farmers. This year’s Forum was opened by the Lord Mayor of Gloucester and supported by CIWEM. It focussed on a number of diverse topics, including the upper estuary; renewable energy possibilities; a review of the Severn Estuary Flood Risk Management Strategy; an overview of the operations and maintenance of the Severn River Crossings; Local Enterprise Partnerships; The Bristol Deep Sea Container Terminal; proposals for a Severnside Airport and Fisheries amongst others. These engaging and exciting events are intended for all interested in learning about the latest research and policy developments dealing with the Severn Estuary and its future, and always guarantee a lively and informative day of presentations and talks. They offer a unique opportunity to learn from others, share ideas and participate in the management of the Severn Estuary.

1. Putting Wales and SW England
on the Aviation Map
Improving Air Connectivity
John Borkowski
MSP Solutions Ltd
October 2013
1

2. 1.
Air Connectivity for SW England and Wales
• Today air connectivity is vital to ensure:
- Communication with world markets and
- Promote economic development through inward investment.
• Air connectivity requires appropriate airports that need to be planned and
developed on a logical and consistent basis.
• Since the end of World War II all UK Governments have failed to understand the
importance of aviation and to develop a competitive airports policy.
• All current UK airports have significant site environmental problems.
• Today we have the embarrassment of inadequate or inappropriate airport
capacity everywhere in the UK (Too many small airports).
• We need state-of-the-art airports to compete in world markets
• Airports (Davies) Commission now gives UK a chance to seriously review current
UK Government aviation policy and rectify our airport problems.
2

3. 2. Evolution of Traffic at Selected UK Regional Airports
Passengers Million
• Cardiff Airport passenger numbers are now in consistent decline.
• Bristol Airport has steadily outperformed Cardiff Airport.
AIRPORT
MANCHESTER
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009
2010 2011 2012
19.082 18.618 19.520 20.969 22.083 22.124 21.892 21.063 18.630 17.663 18.807 19.737
BIRMINGHAM
BOURNEMOUTH
7.712
0.265
7.911
0.392
8.924
0.462
8.797
0.493
9.311
0.829
9.056
0.961
9.134
1.083
9.577
1.079
9.093
0.868
8.564
0.75
8.608
0.613
8.922
0.693
BRISTOL
2.673
3.415
3.887
4.603
5.199
5.71
5.884
6.229
5.615
5.723
5.768
5.921
CARDIFF WALES
1.524
COVENTRY
0.001
EXETER
0.333
Total selected Regional
31.590
Airports
1.416
0.004
0.336
1.9
0.002
0.378
1.873
0.461
0.614
1.765
0.718
0.842
1.993
0.610
0.971
2.094
0.599
1.012
1.979
0.331
0.951
1.625
1.398
1.208
1.028
0.790
0.737
0.709
0.702
32.092 35.073 37.810 40.747 41.425 41.698 41.209 36.621 34.835 35.713 37.003
3

4. 3.
DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic Type MAN,BHX,BRS
Constrained Scenario
• Bristol Airport is not suitable for longhaul flights.
• Lack of SE Airport capacity forces up BHX longhaul flights.
• If Bristol was a bigger site it could attract many more flights including LH.
• Wales and SW England Traffic is forced to use BHX and MAN.
mppa
Manchester 2010
Manchester 2030
Manchester 2050
Domestic
(Excl. intl
transfers)
Total
1.0
1.5
2.1
Birmingham 2010
Birmingham 2030
Birmingham 2050
1.0
1.5
1.8
6.2
12.5
21.0
1.0
2.6
14.7
0.0
0.0
0.8
8.2
16.7
38.3
Bristol 2010
Bristol 2030
Bristol 2050
0.8
1.1
1.5
4.9
7.6
10.2
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.8
9.7
12.3
Demand
Short haul
Long haul
Hub transfers
Grand
Total
11.4
19.3
33.3
Total
4.9
7.1
12.5
Total
0.3
0.3
7.3
Total
17.7
28.1
55.2
4

5. 4. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport
•
Bristol Airport filling up - limited further capacity expansion possibility.
•
Cardiff Airport - not well located to pick up English passengers.
•
What happens here if LHR is replaced by another hub airport STN or Thames
Estuary?
•
Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a single new large airport in Severn
Estuary:
- State-of-the-art passenger terminal and 3,500-4,000m runway
- More destinations - More frequency - also Major Cargo activities
- Bigger aircraft - lower costs
- Longhaul flights
- Environment: 24-hour operation with flight-path over water.
- Biggest catalyst to regenerate economic activity in SW England and Wales
5

6. 6. ce Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport
New South East Wales International Airport
Catchment for the New Airport
Indicative
airport site
Catchment area generating
80% of passengers
31
6

7. 5. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport
New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - High
Year
Passengers (millions)
Short Haul
Growth rate
Ex Bristol
Ex Cardiff
Subtotal SH
Long Haul
Growth rate
Subtotal LH
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
12
1.2
13.2
5%
12.6
1.3
13.9
5%
13.2
1.3
14.6
4%
16.7
1.7
18.4
4%
20.3
2.0
22.4
4%
24.8
2.5
27.3
3.5%
29.4
2.9
32.4
0.2
150%
0.5
20%
1.7
15%
3.6
5%
4.6
4%
5.6
14.1
15.1
20.2
26.0
31.9
38.0
Total Passengers
New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - Low
Year
Passengers (millions)
Short Haul
Growth rate
Ex Bristol
Ex Cardiff
Subtotal SH
Long Haul
Growth rate
Subtotal LH
Total Passengers
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
9.5
1.1
10.6
5%
10.0
1.2
11.2
5%
10.5
1.2
11.7
4%
13.2
1.5
14.8
4%
16.1
1.9
18.0
4%
19.6
2.3
21.9
3.5%
23.3
2.7
26.0
0.2
100%
0.4
20%
1.3
15%
2.7
5%
3.5
4%
4.2
11.4
12.1
16.1
20.7
25.4
30.2
7

8. 6. What does the New Airport provide over BRS/CWL
• Airport would be a state-of-art large airport (size of Gatwick) suitable for operating
the largest aircraft at maximum TO weight for 24-hour operation: long/wide runway.
• Airport would attract much more traffic than BRS/CWL combined: Lufthansa, Air
France-KLM, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways plus US carriers.
• New UK longhaul airline could also emerge if IAG (BA/Iberia) does not participate.
• Longhaul flights starting with small narrow body aircraft B737-700ER/A319LR.
• Then B757 replacement, followed by wide-body B767, B787 and A350XWB at a
later date.
• Large pure freighters and express parcel operators (FEDEX, UPS, Cargolux) would
be attracted to the airport for B747-8F, B747-400F and B777F longhaul flights.
• Only a marginal contribution to resolving the SE Airport Hub capacity problem.
8

9. Fuel and Maintenance Area
3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide
Minimum separation is 590 m to safeguard for emergency or close
parallel runway options as illustrated in Options 2
Taxiway
55 m
Fire Station
Stands
Road
Rail
Road,
Rail and
Car Parking
Zone
Terminal
Up to
6
MARS
stands
Taxiway
Pier
Cargo and
Catering
Temporary
Remote
Stands
Railway would
loop under the
airport back to
the main GW
line East
1300 m
Severn Estuary
Airport
Concept Plan
Long Term Strategic
Development
Safeguarded Zones
Phase1
for Options 1 or 2
Single new Runway and
New Taxiway
2000m
Approx.
Safeguarded area for either Options 1 or 2

10. Fuel and
Maintenance Area
45
m
3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide
200 m
Taxiway
100 m
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Rail
Taxiway
Long Term Strategic
Development
Safeguarded Zones
Option 1
Single Runway,
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Below Ground TTS Link
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Stand
Severn Estuary
Airport
Concept Plan
Stand
1150 m
Approx.
Stand
Pier
Terminal
Road,
Rail
and Car
Parking
Zone
Pier
Road
Stand
Satellite
Cargo and
Catering
Fire Station
400 m
Stand
Stand
Stand
800 m
New
Control
Tower
Railway
would loop
under the
airport back
to the main
GW line East
Stand
Stand
600 m
Future Taxiway
190 m
Future Runway
150 m
1700m
Approx.

11. 7. Single Bigger Airport - Next steps
•
SW England and Wales need to work together to achieve this objective.
•
The concept needs the support of Westminster and the Welsh Assembly
governments.
•
Incorporate the airport in the rail electrification programme, the Severn Barrage
Project and the deep water container port (4-way intermodal mode freight hub
possibility).
•
The planning and approval process will take time.
•
Construction duration estimated at 6 to 7 years.
•
The 2003 Newport Study (Severn Estuary Airport) needs updating and more
extensive study on geology, environmental impact and costing - Need a budget!
•
Submission needs approval of the Airports (Davies) Commission.
11

12. 12

13. 2011 How Busy are Bristol and Cardiff Airports?
Airport
Bristol
Cardiff
ATMs/annum ATMs/day ATMs/hour PAX/ATM
66,000
181
10
87.2
29,130
80
4
41.5
Stansted
Gatwick
Heathrow
148,317
251,067
480,906
406
688
1318
23
38
73
119.6
130.3
144.6
London City
68,792
220
12
42.5
Notes:
2011 data ex-CAA
LCY operates a 6 day week
13

14. 4. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to BRS and CWL
• Bristol’s restricted site limits its capacity expansion potential.
• Cardiff only grows because of Bristol’s lack of capacity.
DfT 2013 Forecast
mppa
Airport
Scenario
2030
2050
Bristol
Low
Central
High
Low
Central
High
7.7
9.7
12.4
0.9
1.1
1.2
10.7
12.3
Cardiff
Runway Capacity ATMs/a
Bristol
Cardiff
Passenger Capacity mppa
Bristol
Cardiff
1.3
7.8
2008
150
105
2030
226
150
2050
226
150
10
3
12
8
12
8
14

15. 3. Existing UK Airports and Wales in 2012
• Cardiff carries only 24% of Wales’ origin and destination traffic!
MSP Solutions’ Estimate based on CAA and DfT Data
Wales
Total
Wales
'000
million
%
Heathrow
810
70.04
1.2
Gatwick
302
34.33
Stansted
90
Luton
London City
Cardiff
Total
Wales
'000
million
%
Bristol
800
5.92
13.5
0.9
Manchester
760
19.74
3.9
17.47
0.5
Liverpool
245
4.46
5.5
9.62
0.6
Birmingham
150
8.92
1.7
3
3.02
0.1
East Midlands
20
4.08
0.5
1,260
134.5
0.9
Exeter
5
0.7
0.7
Newquay
Sub Total SE Airports
Wales
55
SE Airports
0
0.17
0
1,980
43.99
4.5
950
1.03
92
Regional Airports
Sub Total Other UK Airports
Total Wales' 2012 Passengers: 4.19 million(Cardiff 0.95 million)
15

16. Evolution of UK Income and Population Growth
• SW England is forecast to grow significantly faster than the UK average.
• Wales is expected to grow at a lower rate than the average for the UK.
Underlying DfT NTEM Regional Income and Population Forecasts
Income £billion
Population million
NTEM UK Region/Area
2011
2041
% change 2011
2041
% change
South West
48.7
63.7
31%
5.2
6.4
23%
Wales
26.0
32.0
23%
3
3.3
12%
London
97.0
124.9
29%
7.6
9.5
25%
South East
96.0
118.5
23%
8.5
10.1
19%
Eastern England
60.4
78.7
30%
5.8
7.3
26%
North East
21.8
26.1
20%
2.6
2.8
11%
Yorkshire and Humberside
46.6
62.0
33%
5.3
6.4
22%
North West
63.9
75.7
18%
6.8
7.4
9%
West Midlands
48.4
58.6
21%
5.4
6.2
14%
East Midlands
40.3
52.2
30%
4.4
5.4
22%
Scotland
51.2
60.7
19%
5.1
5.4
6%
Total
600.4
753.3
25%
59.6
70.3
18%
16

17. 5. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of UK Aviation Traffic
passengers million
• The figures mask SE Airports issue: LHR and LGW are both full by 2020.
• Critical traffic lost or forced sub-optimally into regional airports (BHX).
• Bristol and Cardiff unable to exploit the full SW opportunity due to location.
(mppa)
2020
2010
2030
2040
2050
Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High
Unconstrained 211
Demand
Constrained
Demand
211
238
259
281
281
320
359
314
391
483 350
482
661
236
255
277
276
313
347 306
372
451 339
447
Cannot
meet
demand
Demand cannot be met in High Case in 2050 as insufficient runway capacity!
17

18. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to UK Airports
• Wales and South West Passengers forced to use BHX and MAN in the long term.
Terminal Passengers by Region of surface journey to airport origin: max use 2010-2050
(constrained)
Max Use: million passengers
Surface to SE airports
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Northern Ireland
0
0
0
0
0
Scotland
0
0
0
0
0
North
2
2
2
1
1
Midlands
6
9
10
7
5
Wales
1
1
1
1
1
South West
5
6
7
6
5
Regional total
14
19
20
15
12
SE passengers
89
112
136
156
167
Total surface passengers at SE
103
131
157
171
179
Airports
Other airports
Northern Ireland
6
7
9
12
16
Scotland
20
23
29
34
42
North
28
34
43
54
66
Midlands
13
15
19
29
39
Wales
3
4
5
7
9
South West
7
8
11
16
21
Regional total
77
90
117
153
193
SE passengers
2
4
7
17
39
Total surface passengers at other
78
95
124
171
231
airports
18

19. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution No of Destinations by Traffic Type
Constrained Scenario
• The future for Cardiff Airport as a commercial airport is not very promising.
• Bristol by contrast has a much better future.
DfT 2013 Forecast Destinations served split by airline type, 2010-2050 (constrained)
Airport
Scheduled
LCC
Charter
2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Heathrow
174
173
168
170
155
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gatwick
133
148
140
124
94
99
103
73
70
54
109
63
69
69
Stansted
52
70
82
113
88
27
37
43
46
48
65
40
43
41
62
39
Luton
29
33
48
45
27
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
1
0
London City
3
2
1
2
1
47
63
65
66
61
17
3
1
0
0
Manchester
80
91
117
140
163
65
54
58
59
54
100
75
84
100
121
Birmingham
50
56
64
52
37
51
21
19
11
12
19
24
28
28
0
Bristol
16
18
28
36
39
60
82
89
98
90
10
7
5
8
10
Cardiff
2
3
4
8
8
22
17
17
16
17
0
0
0
0
0
687
778
882
995
994
740
681
686
696
756
590
431
453
476
474
All UK Airports
19

20. Impact of Possible SE Airports Expansion on Wales and SW
England
• Wales SW England needs to look for a new airport to meet its own needs.
• Severn Estuary location offers good intermodal connections and minimal
environmental damage.
• LHR can only have one additional effective parallel new runway (old BAA scheme).
• Even then LHR not competitive with European Hubs especially AMS and CDG in
long run. Not competitive with new Middle East Hubs Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Qatar.
• Thames Estuary Airports (e.g. Grain or Goodwin) provide a state-of-the-art 4 runway
airport but very expensive and much further for Wales/SW England.
• Gatwick - space for one more runway: not ideal for later further expansion.
• Luton very restricted site only one other runway possible: not likely to be chosen.
• Stansted lowest cost solution for 4-runway airport; could be chosen by Davies.
• Stansted would be bad news for Wales and SW England as much further than LHR.
20

21. UK Airports Wales and SW England (1)
Wales needs to join together with SW England (Bristol) to find a common solution
of a major new airport to replace both Bristol and Cardiff airports.
• Cardiff Airport - next 10 years disappointing with low growth potential.
• Bristol Airport - poor site with limited long term growth potential especially for
longhaul flights.
• Wales’ and SW England traffic is forced in the long run to use Birmingham Airport.
• Wales’ population and economic (income) growth disappointing in current scenarios.
• New airport (sized as Gatwick but with second runway potential) could be built in the
Severn Estuary off Newport.
• Would permit 24-hour operation and attract LH and cargo traffic .
• Minimal environmental impact as flights’ landing approach and take-off would be
over water.
21

22. UK Airports Wales and SW England (2)
Submission needs to be made to the Davies Commission as soon as possible.
Submission of Interest needed by for the Davies Commission as soon as possib
Expression need to be prepared 28 February 2013; Submission 19 July 2013.
• Airport would create many new skilled jobs and catalyse inward investment.
• Existing Cardiff and Bristol traffic would be sufficient to “seed” new airport.
• Existing Cardiff and Bristol airport sites become housing/light industry sites and cash
generated to be injected to fund the new airport development.
• New airport site needs to be considered in terms of connections to existing
motorways M4/M5 and Great Western rail electrification.
• New airport site also needs to be considered in context of the Severn Barrage
power generation project and new deepwater marine container port - intermodal
freight hub marine/air/road/rail could be developed.
• New detailed study is required before go-ahead can be decided.
• Welsh Assembly needs to consider and support the proposal.
22

23. UK Airports - Cardiff Airport
Cardiff to be prepared be supported in the Medium Term.
Submission need Airport needs tofor the Davies Commission as soon as possibl
• Important to preserve as many commercial air services as possible for Wales.
• Retain current airport and airline operational jobs at the airport.
• Ensure that the British Airways wide-body aircraft heavy maintenance operation
remains on the airport site.
• Try to increase cargo volumes even if this is only a marginal operation.
• It may be difficult to grow passenger traffic significantly especially as Bristol offers a
much better choice of destination and frequency,
• However a new initiative could be made to try to attract new airline entrants.
• Long term objective would be to be able to transfer as much activity as possible to
the new strategic Severn Estuary Airport.
23

24. DfT 2013 Forecast GDP Growth
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Growth of UK
Real UK GDP* growth Real UK GDP* growth Real UK GDP* growth Growth of UK consumer Growth of UK consumer consumer expenditure
(%), low
(%), central
(%), high
expenditure (%), low
expenditure (%), central
(%), high
1.60
1.60
1.60
2.50
2.50
2.50
0.30
0.30
0.30
-1.90
-1.90
-1.90
-1.00
-0.30
0.40
0.40
1.10
1.80
-0.20
1.00
2.30
-0.50
0.70
2.00
-0.10
1.80
3.50
-0.90
1.00
2.70
0.20
2.10
3.80
-1.10
0.80
2.50
0.50
2.50
4.20
-0.90
1.10
2.80
0.70
2.60
4.40
-0.70
1.20
3.00
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.70
2.20
2.80
1.70
2.20
2.80
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.60
2.10
2.60
1.60
2.10
2.60
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.90
2.40
2.90
1.90
2.40
2.90
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.80
2.30
2.80
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
1.70
2.20
2.70
24