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Lamar Van Dusen
Optimal Turnover Revisited
Levels Corresponding to Highest Net Return
1
Capacity Analysis
Academic Definitions and Industry Practice
The dependence between portfolio performance and size of fund
The study of ways to increase AUM for a target level of return
Identification of optimal turnover for every level of AUM
How to expand fund size while ‘remaining efficient’
Current investment strategy will lose 15 places in its ranking by growing
to $5B
Based on a peer group of 746 names the fund will likely fall into the
second quartile by growing to $6B
Growing to $3.5B, while keeping within first quartile, might be possible
with careful liquidity planning
At a level of $2.5B, there is room to increase turnover
2
An Alternative View of Portfolio Capacity Analysis
General themes
ex ante versus ex post
strategy space underlying
investment decisions
Fixed portfolio
strategy
Determination of
turnover and net
returns jointly
Capacity
Conclusions
Ex post analysis
Ex ante analysis
3
Cost and Fixed Portfolio Strategies
Daily Market-Impact Costs for U.S. Indices Trade Lists up to $5 Billion
Comparative Market-Impact Costs
US Index Lists Trading One-Day VWAP $100M to $5B
(cost estimates as of August 31, 2006)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Dollar Volume Trading One-Day VWAP ($mil)
DailyMarket-ImpactCost(bps)
SP500 Equal Weight
SP500 Index Weight
R2000 Equal Weight
R2000 Index Weight
4
Past is Prologue
“Optimal” Turnover
Optimal Turnover, Net Return Decrease with Higher AUM
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%
Monthly Turnover Rate
NetAnnualReturn
Net Return ($20B)
Net Return ($10B)
Net Return ($5B)
Net Return ($2B)
Paper Return
Optimal Turnover Rates for Different Levels of Assets Under Management
5
An Efficient Frontier for Turnover
The Turnover Efficient Frontier
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%
Monthly Turnover Rate
NetAnnualReturn
Net Return ($10B)
Net Return ($5B)
Net Return ($2B)
Turnover Efficient Frontier
Sub-Optimal turnover performance drag
(A) Optimal turnover $2B AUM
(C) Optimal turnover $5B
(B) Sub-Optimal turnover $5B AUM
6
Regional Weights in a Tangent Portfolio
August 2008
$500 Million
39
46
3
7
42
31
16 16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
North
Am.
Latin
Am.
Europe Asia
paper
100%
Source: Investment Technology Group, Inc.
7
The Smoking Gun
Optimization and Costs
8
Turnover Determined
Return vs. realized turnover for different portfolio wealth
-0.40%
-0.35%
-0.30%
-0.25%
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
realized monthly turnover
monthlyreturn
tau=0, wealth=$250mln tau=20, wealth=$250mln tau==50, wealth=$250mln
tau=0,wealth=$1bln tau=20, wealth=$1bln tau=50, wealth = $1bln
A250
A1000
9
Optimal Turnover Revisited
Levels Corresponding to Highest Net Return
Optimal Turnover for a Given tau and Portfolio Wealth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
250 500 1000 2000 5000
Portfolio wealth, $mln
Tunover,%permonth
-0.25%
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
Return,%permonth
return optimal tau return tau=0 optimal turnover
turnover tau=0 turnover tau=50
10
Removing Turnover Constraints
The envelope curve which traverses all possible turnover levels for a $500mln fund
and which passes through the highest net return
11
Trading Strategy and Turnover
Net return vs. realized turnover
-0.28%
-0.23%
-0.18%
-0.13%
-0.08%
-0.03%
0.02%
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
realized monthly turnover
monthlyreturn
$5Bn, tau=30, 1-day VWAP $5Bn, tau=30, 10% VolPart
$500mln, tau=50, 10% VolPArt $500mln, tau=50, 1-day VWAP
12
Two Lessons from the Analysis
Previous focus on turnover as a choice variable, and on its role as
a proxy for implementation cost, is misplaced
• Considering stock-specific transaction costs at the portfolio construction
stage enables higher turnover levels
• Turnover levels are determined through the interaction of alpha predictions
and expected cost estimates
• Managing at higher turnover levels allows for faster processing of new
information, and in conjunction with cost control, leads to superior net return
Limiting the strategy space within which portfolio strategy is
formulated negatively impacts returns and reduces the capacity of
a fund
• Limiting that set of strategies also distorts capacity analysis and biases
capacity choice down, in general
• There is particular importance to adding trading strategy to the strategy space
underlying the investment decision
13
Disclaimers
The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other
sources we deem reliable but we do not represent that such information is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No guarantee or warranty is made as to the
reasonableness of the assumptions or the accuracy of the models or market data used by
Investment Technology Group, Inc. or the actual results that may be achieved. These materials
are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to be used for trading or investment
purposes or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or financial
product. These materials do not provide any form of advice (investment, tax or
legal). Investment Technology Group, Inc. is not a registered investment adviser and does not
provide investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell securities, to hire any
investment adviser or to pursue any investment or trading strategy.
Any opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment of the individual presenter as this date and
do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investment Technology Group, Inc. All information,
analysis and terms set forth herein are indicative, based on, among other things, market
conditions as of the time of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice.
14
Thanks

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Lamar Van Dusen | Optimal Turnover Revisited : Levels Corresponding to Highest Net Return

  • 1. Lamar Van Dusen Optimal Turnover Revisited Levels Corresponding to Highest Net Return
  • 2. 1 Capacity Analysis Academic Definitions and Industry Practice The dependence between portfolio performance and size of fund The study of ways to increase AUM for a target level of return Identification of optimal turnover for every level of AUM How to expand fund size while ‘remaining efficient’ Current investment strategy will lose 15 places in its ranking by growing to $5B Based on a peer group of 746 names the fund will likely fall into the second quartile by growing to $6B Growing to $3.5B, while keeping within first quartile, might be possible with careful liquidity planning At a level of $2.5B, there is room to increase turnover
  • 3. 2 An Alternative View of Portfolio Capacity Analysis General themes ex ante versus ex post strategy space underlying investment decisions Fixed portfolio strategy Determination of turnover and net returns jointly Capacity Conclusions Ex post analysis Ex ante analysis
  • 4. 3 Cost and Fixed Portfolio Strategies Daily Market-Impact Costs for U.S. Indices Trade Lists up to $5 Billion Comparative Market-Impact Costs US Index Lists Trading One-Day VWAP $100M to $5B (cost estimates as of August 31, 2006) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Dollar Volume Trading One-Day VWAP ($mil) DailyMarket-ImpactCost(bps) SP500 Equal Weight SP500 Index Weight R2000 Equal Weight R2000 Index Weight
  • 5. 4 Past is Prologue “Optimal” Turnover Optimal Turnover, Net Return Decrease with Higher AUM 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Monthly Turnover Rate NetAnnualReturn Net Return ($20B) Net Return ($10B) Net Return ($5B) Net Return ($2B) Paper Return Optimal Turnover Rates for Different Levels of Assets Under Management
  • 6. 5 An Efficient Frontier for Turnover The Turnover Efficient Frontier 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% Monthly Turnover Rate NetAnnualReturn Net Return ($10B) Net Return ($5B) Net Return ($2B) Turnover Efficient Frontier Sub-Optimal turnover performance drag (A) Optimal turnover $2B AUM (C) Optimal turnover $5B (B) Sub-Optimal turnover $5B AUM
  • 7. 6 Regional Weights in a Tangent Portfolio August 2008 $500 Million 39 46 3 7 42 31 16 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 North Am. Latin Am. Europe Asia paper 100% Source: Investment Technology Group, Inc.
  • 9. 8 Turnover Determined Return vs. realized turnover for different portfolio wealth -0.40% -0.35% -0.30% -0.25% -0.20% -0.15% -0.10% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% realized monthly turnover monthlyreturn tau=0, wealth=$250mln tau=20, wealth=$250mln tau==50, wealth=$250mln tau=0,wealth=$1bln tau=20, wealth=$1bln tau=50, wealth = $1bln A250 A1000
  • 10. 9 Optimal Turnover Revisited Levels Corresponding to Highest Net Return Optimal Turnover for a Given tau and Portfolio Wealth 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 250 500 1000 2000 5000 Portfolio wealth, $mln Tunover,%permonth -0.25% -0.20% -0.15% -0.10% -0.05% 0.00% Return,%permonth return optimal tau return tau=0 optimal turnover turnover tau=0 turnover tau=50
  • 11. 10 Removing Turnover Constraints The envelope curve which traverses all possible turnover levels for a $500mln fund and which passes through the highest net return
  • 12. 11 Trading Strategy and Turnover Net return vs. realized turnover -0.28% -0.23% -0.18% -0.13% -0.08% -0.03% 0.02% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% realized monthly turnover monthlyreturn $5Bn, tau=30, 1-day VWAP $5Bn, tau=30, 10% VolPart $500mln, tau=50, 10% VolPArt $500mln, tau=50, 1-day VWAP
  • 13. 12 Two Lessons from the Analysis Previous focus on turnover as a choice variable, and on its role as a proxy for implementation cost, is misplaced • Considering stock-specific transaction costs at the portfolio construction stage enables higher turnover levels • Turnover levels are determined through the interaction of alpha predictions and expected cost estimates • Managing at higher turnover levels allows for faster processing of new information, and in conjunction with cost control, leads to superior net return Limiting the strategy space within which portfolio strategy is formulated negatively impacts returns and reduces the capacity of a fund • Limiting that set of strategies also distorts capacity analysis and biases capacity choice down, in general • There is particular importance to adding trading strategy to the strategy space underlying the investment decision
  • 14. 13 Disclaimers The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we deem reliable but we do not represent that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No guarantee or warranty is made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions or the accuracy of the models or market data used by Investment Technology Group, Inc. or the actual results that may be achieved. These materials are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to be used for trading or investment purposes or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or financial product. These materials do not provide any form of advice (investment, tax or legal). Investment Technology Group, Inc. is not a registered investment adviser and does not provide investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell securities, to hire any investment adviser or to pursue any investment or trading strategy. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment of the individual presenter as this date and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investment Technology Group, Inc. All information, analysis and terms set forth herein are indicative, based on, among other things, market conditions as of the time of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice.