W poszukiwaniu optymalnego sposobu wprowadzenia lara kapitałowegoGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz i Krzysztof Makarski
oraz Marcin Bielecki, Marcin Waniek i Jan Woznica
Group for Research in Applied Economics
Konferencja D lugoterminowe Oszczedzanie - SGH - 2016
W poszukiwaniu optymalnego sposobu wprowadzenia lara kapitałowegoGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz i Krzysztof Makarski
oraz Marcin Bielecki, Marcin Waniek i Jan Woznica
Group for Research in Applied Economics
Konferencja D lugoterminowe Oszczedzanie - SGH - 2016
The shadow of longevity – does social security reform reduce gains from incre...GRAPE
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare effects of increasing the retirement age under different pension systems (defined benefit, notional defined contribution, and funded defined contribution). The study finds that increasing the retirement age is a universally efficient reform that improves welfare. Specifically:
1) Increasing the retirement age leads to higher aggregate labor supply, though individual labor supply may decrease for some.
2) Everyone gains from the reform, as beneficiaries receive higher pensions under defined contribution systems and taxpayers pay lower taxes to support defined benefit pensions.
3) While capital per worker decreases slightly, this is mostly due to a reduction in precautionary savings rather than true economic effects.
This document discusses using an overlapping generations model to analyze the welfare effects of different fiscal closure options for financing the pension reform in Poland in 1999. The reform transitioned the pension system from a defined benefit pay-as-you-go system to a combination of notional defined contribution and funded defined contribution systems. The model will compare the welfare effects across generations and over time for five different fiscal closure options to finance the gap created by contributions staying in the pay-as-you-go system. The analysis will provide insight into which fiscal closure option has the best effects on savings, labor supply, output, and overall welfare.
Population ageing, labour market and public finance in PolandGRAPE
Poland risks getting old before getting rich. The share of working age population is going down, while that of older population is increasing rapidly. There are more and more older workers among the working age population. This volume shows that these trends are likely to have a negative impact on employment, and consequently on national income and social welfare. It argues that pro-active and radical policy measures need to be taken to mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing. Priority should be given to encouraging higher fertility, including through the development of child care services, promoting investment in skills and lifelong learning, developing a smart immigration policy that addresses the needs of the labour market, and gearing the health care system towards the needs of older people, including through the development of a long-term care system. Yet most importantly, this policy should aim to prolong working lives, in line with the growing life expectancy. People need to work longer, otherwise their retirement income will be low, as will be the income of the population at large.
This publication is a collection of articles arranged by the Institute for Structural Research (IBS) for the "Population ageing, labour market and public finance in Poland" conference in Warsaw, 9th of March 2017. The conference was organised by the European Commission Representation in Poland in cooperation with the Institute for Structural Research (IBS). All the articles are published upon agreement of their respective authors. The material contained in the publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the European Commission.
Prezentacja z wykładu na temat roli analityka IT w zespole stosującym metodyki Agile takich jak SCRUM, XP czy Kanban. Prezentacja pokazuje także jak budować kompetencje zwinnego analityka. Wykład został wygłoszony podczas konferencji beIT 2015 na Politechnice Gdańskiej, a także na spotkaniu gdańskiej grupy SPIN.
Założeniem warsztatu jest nauczenie uczestników, jak identyfikować i zwalczać złą wielozadaniowość w swoim zespole poprzez zaawansowane wdrożenie kanbanu. Często jest tak, że zespół używa tablicy z karteczkami, nazywając ją „kanbanem”. Ale czy to na pewno jest kanban w prawdziwym tego słowa znaczeniu, czy raczej tylko „wyrób kanbanopodobny”? Czy limitujesz pracę w toku? Jaką metodą? Kanbanem właściwym, systemem CONWIP, czy raczej wg wytycznych teorii ograniczeń Goldratta? Czy zidentyfikowałeś integrację? Czy zamroziłeś pracę w toku „na dwa kroki?”. Czy stosujesz politykę „pełnego zestawu” (full kitting)? Czy stosujesz klasy serwisowe do obsługi tematów o różnym profilu funkcji straty? W trakcie warsztatu przeanalizujemy te i inne praktyczne scenariusze zastosowania tego z pozoru prostego narzędzia.
Ponad 80% organizacji twierdzi, że korzysta z metod Agile, a 80% z nich ma Scrum. Pomimo 21 lat od powstania Scrum i 15 lat od spisania Agile Manifesto nadal pojawiają się nieprawdziwe opinie, a nawet powstają całe metody rozwiązujące nieistniejące problemy. Im wyżej w strukturze organizacji tym gorzej z wiedzą i tym więcej nieprawdziwych założeń. Od czasu do czasu nadal usłyszymy, że nie ma architektury, że Scrum nadaje się tylko do małych projektów, że Scrum to metoda zarządzania projektami, że nie trzeba pisać dokumentacji, testerów nie ma, bo nie ma takiej roli, a Sprint to taki mały waterfall i tym podobne głupoty. Skąd to się bierze? Najczęściej z braku zrozumienia podstaw lub ze słabej jakości źródeł pozyskanej wiedzy. W praktyce jeśli nie wie się co jest prawdą, a co jest zmyślone bardzo trudno zrozumieć co się na prawdę dzieje i jak powinny wyglądać procesy wytwórcze.
Można dać komuś rybę, ale dużo lepiej jest dać wędkę i nauczyć łowić ryby. Dlatego podczas mojego wystąpienia omówię podstawy zagadnień i zbuduję solidne fundamenty do podejmowania decyzji na co dzień.
Study on gender misattributions in citations of scientific papers - female-turned-male errors are more common than the reverse, but there is not a lot of mistakes in general
Author's gender affects rating of academic articleGRAPE
1) The document describes an experiment that tested whether the gender of an academic author affects ratings of their work. Papers ostensibly written by female and male authors were evaluated.
2) Results found that papers written by female authors were less likely to be judged as having been published in a top journal, though direct ratings of competence did not differ by gender.
3) Interpretation of the results was controversial, as it was unclear if lower publication judgments of female-authored works reflected beliefs about author competence or awareness of gender bias in publishing. Follow-up experiments found no evidence that raters changed evaluations after learning the author's gender.
Within occupation wage dispersion and task inequalityGRAPE
We argue that the distribution of tasks affects wage inequality within occupations. We show that occupations with more routine tasks, particularly cognitive, tend to show higher wage dispersion at the top and at the bottom of the income distribution.
Gender and research funding in a Norwegian contextGRAPE
1) The document analyzes gender perspectives in research funding in Norway through a literature review and interviews with research council program managers and funded researchers.
2) Key findings include that mentoring and career support initiatives may not fully address gender challenges, and that examining financial conditions and their interaction with disciplinary career dynamics is important.
3) Challenges in the grant application process include potential bias if evaluators know each other and if divergent proposals are less likely to be approved, though these challenges ostensibly affect both men and women.
The document analyzes differences in research funding received by men and women in Poland. It finds that while women make up about half of grant applicants, they receive a lower proportion of funds and have a slightly lower success rate than men. Interviews with experts found the funding system is seen as fair and merit-based. However, some noted family responsibilities may disadvantage women scientists. Suggested reforms include policies to better support scientists with family/care duties such as childcare funding and extended eligibility for leave periods. Overall, the document presents data on gender differences in Polish research funding and perspectives on improving support for female scientists.
The document discusses gender differences in PhD career paths and access to funding in Poland and Norway. Some key points:
- Polish PhD graduates were more likely to see traditional academic careers, while Norwegian graduates more often sought non-academic research jobs.
- Polish PhD graduates had less stable employment, with half in temporary positions compared to over 70% of Norwegian graduates in permanent roles.
- Norwegian men were more likely than women to secure permanent employment after PhD completion.
- Access to research funding differed between countries and genders, with women applying for grants less often which could relate to structural barriers and balancing work/family responsibilities.
Nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instrumentsGRAPE
This document outlines a study on nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instruments. It begins with an introduction and motivation for addressing endogeneity in nonparametric models. It then presents the simplest additive error model setup and discusses identification when the number of instruments is both greater than and less than the number of regressors. The document outlines two test statistics for the null hypothesis of exogeneity depending on this relationship. It also discusses estimation of the model parameters under both exogeneity and endogeneity. The summary provides a high-level overview of the key topics, models, and hypotheses discussed in the document in 3 sentences.
Minimum wage violation in Central and Eastern European GRAPE
This document summarizes research on minimum wage violations in Central and Eastern Europe between 2003-2012. The research finds that minimum wage violation rates were low to moderate across countries but increased during economic downturns. Higher minimum wages relative to average wages were associated with higher violation rates. Vulnerable groups like women and less educated workers faced higher risks of violation. While violation levels were usually shallow, employers sometimes underpaid workers by ignoring recent minimum wage increases. Overall, minimum wage policies were only effective if employers complied with wage laws.
Do gender and beauty affect assessment of academic performance?GRAPE
This document discusses research on whether gender and physical attractiveness affect academic assessment. It summarizes previous studies that found small effects, such as more attractive students receiving higher grades. The present study analyzed over 15,000 thesis evaluations from the University of Warsaw. It found no significant differences in advisor vs referee grades based on student gender or rated attractiveness. While imperfect measures may have limited the study, the results suggest gender and beauty did not bias academic assessments in this large Polish university sample.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGilbert Mbara
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which firms evade the employer contribution component of social security taxes by offering some workers non-formal contracts. When calibrated, the model yields estimates of dual labor market participation consistent with empirical evidence for the EU14 countries and the US. We investigate the optimal mix of the avoidable and unavoidable components of labor taxes and analyze the fiscal and macroeconomics effects of bringing the composition to the welfare optimum. We find that partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance is not necessarily a welfare enhancing policy mix.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGRAPE
This document summarizes an analysis of optimal tax policy in labor markets with duality. It presents a model with two types of labor contracts (typical and atypical) and two types of labor taxes (unavoidable income tax and avoidable social security contributions). The model is calibrated using data from EU countries to examine how tax revenues respond to different tax rates and compositions. The results show that tax revenues are more responsive to avoidable social security taxes than unavoidable income taxes due to evasion incentives. Although the revenue-maximizing tax rate is flat, the model predictions align reasonably well with real-world data on irregular employment across countries.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
The shadow of longevity – does social security reform reduce gains from incre...GRAPE
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare effects of increasing the retirement age under different pension systems (defined benefit, notional defined contribution, and funded defined contribution). The study finds that increasing the retirement age is a universally efficient reform that improves welfare. Specifically:
1) Increasing the retirement age leads to higher aggregate labor supply, though individual labor supply may decrease for some.
2) Everyone gains from the reform, as beneficiaries receive higher pensions under defined contribution systems and taxpayers pay lower taxes to support defined benefit pensions.
3) While capital per worker decreases slightly, this is mostly due to a reduction in precautionary savings rather than true economic effects.
This document discusses using an overlapping generations model to analyze the welfare effects of different fiscal closure options for financing the pension reform in Poland in 1999. The reform transitioned the pension system from a defined benefit pay-as-you-go system to a combination of notional defined contribution and funded defined contribution systems. The model will compare the welfare effects across generations and over time for five different fiscal closure options to finance the gap created by contributions staying in the pay-as-you-go system. The analysis will provide insight into which fiscal closure option has the best effects on savings, labor supply, output, and overall welfare.
Population ageing, labour market and public finance in PolandGRAPE
Poland risks getting old before getting rich. The share of working age population is going down, while that of older population is increasing rapidly. There are more and more older workers among the working age population. This volume shows that these trends are likely to have a negative impact on employment, and consequently on national income and social welfare. It argues that pro-active and radical policy measures need to be taken to mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing. Priority should be given to encouraging higher fertility, including through the development of child care services, promoting investment in skills and lifelong learning, developing a smart immigration policy that addresses the needs of the labour market, and gearing the health care system towards the needs of older people, including through the development of a long-term care system. Yet most importantly, this policy should aim to prolong working lives, in line with the growing life expectancy. People need to work longer, otherwise their retirement income will be low, as will be the income of the population at large.
This publication is a collection of articles arranged by the Institute for Structural Research (IBS) for the "Population ageing, labour market and public finance in Poland" conference in Warsaw, 9th of March 2017. The conference was organised by the European Commission Representation in Poland in cooperation with the Institute for Structural Research (IBS). All the articles are published upon agreement of their respective authors. The material contained in the publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the European Commission.
Prezentacja z wykładu na temat roli analityka IT w zespole stosującym metodyki Agile takich jak SCRUM, XP czy Kanban. Prezentacja pokazuje także jak budować kompetencje zwinnego analityka. Wykład został wygłoszony podczas konferencji beIT 2015 na Politechnice Gdańskiej, a także na spotkaniu gdańskiej grupy SPIN.
Założeniem warsztatu jest nauczenie uczestników, jak identyfikować i zwalczać złą wielozadaniowość w swoim zespole poprzez zaawansowane wdrożenie kanbanu. Często jest tak, że zespół używa tablicy z karteczkami, nazywając ją „kanbanem”. Ale czy to na pewno jest kanban w prawdziwym tego słowa znaczeniu, czy raczej tylko „wyrób kanbanopodobny”? Czy limitujesz pracę w toku? Jaką metodą? Kanbanem właściwym, systemem CONWIP, czy raczej wg wytycznych teorii ograniczeń Goldratta? Czy zidentyfikowałeś integrację? Czy zamroziłeś pracę w toku „na dwa kroki?”. Czy stosujesz politykę „pełnego zestawu” (full kitting)? Czy stosujesz klasy serwisowe do obsługi tematów o różnym profilu funkcji straty? W trakcie warsztatu przeanalizujemy te i inne praktyczne scenariusze zastosowania tego z pozoru prostego narzędzia.
Ponad 80% organizacji twierdzi, że korzysta z metod Agile, a 80% z nich ma Scrum. Pomimo 21 lat od powstania Scrum i 15 lat od spisania Agile Manifesto nadal pojawiają się nieprawdziwe opinie, a nawet powstają całe metody rozwiązujące nieistniejące problemy. Im wyżej w strukturze organizacji tym gorzej z wiedzą i tym więcej nieprawdziwych założeń. Od czasu do czasu nadal usłyszymy, że nie ma architektury, że Scrum nadaje się tylko do małych projektów, że Scrum to metoda zarządzania projektami, że nie trzeba pisać dokumentacji, testerów nie ma, bo nie ma takiej roli, a Sprint to taki mały waterfall i tym podobne głupoty. Skąd to się bierze? Najczęściej z braku zrozumienia podstaw lub ze słabej jakości źródeł pozyskanej wiedzy. W praktyce jeśli nie wie się co jest prawdą, a co jest zmyślone bardzo trudno zrozumieć co się na prawdę dzieje i jak powinny wyglądać procesy wytwórcze.
Można dać komuś rybę, ale dużo lepiej jest dać wędkę i nauczyć łowić ryby. Dlatego podczas mojego wystąpienia omówię podstawy zagadnień i zbuduję solidne fundamenty do podejmowania decyzji na co dzień.
Study on gender misattributions in citations of scientific papers - female-turned-male errors are more common than the reverse, but there is not a lot of mistakes in general
Author's gender affects rating of academic articleGRAPE
1) The document describes an experiment that tested whether the gender of an academic author affects ratings of their work. Papers ostensibly written by female and male authors were evaluated.
2) Results found that papers written by female authors were less likely to be judged as having been published in a top journal, though direct ratings of competence did not differ by gender.
3) Interpretation of the results was controversial, as it was unclear if lower publication judgments of female-authored works reflected beliefs about author competence or awareness of gender bias in publishing. Follow-up experiments found no evidence that raters changed evaluations after learning the author's gender.
Within occupation wage dispersion and task inequalityGRAPE
We argue that the distribution of tasks affects wage inequality within occupations. We show that occupations with more routine tasks, particularly cognitive, tend to show higher wage dispersion at the top and at the bottom of the income distribution.
Gender and research funding in a Norwegian contextGRAPE
1) The document analyzes gender perspectives in research funding in Norway through a literature review and interviews with research council program managers and funded researchers.
2) Key findings include that mentoring and career support initiatives may not fully address gender challenges, and that examining financial conditions and their interaction with disciplinary career dynamics is important.
3) Challenges in the grant application process include potential bias if evaluators know each other and if divergent proposals are less likely to be approved, though these challenges ostensibly affect both men and women.
The document analyzes differences in research funding received by men and women in Poland. It finds that while women make up about half of grant applicants, they receive a lower proportion of funds and have a slightly lower success rate than men. Interviews with experts found the funding system is seen as fair and merit-based. However, some noted family responsibilities may disadvantage women scientists. Suggested reforms include policies to better support scientists with family/care duties such as childcare funding and extended eligibility for leave periods. Overall, the document presents data on gender differences in Polish research funding and perspectives on improving support for female scientists.
The document discusses gender differences in PhD career paths and access to funding in Poland and Norway. Some key points:
- Polish PhD graduates were more likely to see traditional academic careers, while Norwegian graduates more often sought non-academic research jobs.
- Polish PhD graduates had less stable employment, with half in temporary positions compared to over 70% of Norwegian graduates in permanent roles.
- Norwegian men were more likely than women to secure permanent employment after PhD completion.
- Access to research funding differed between countries and genders, with women applying for grants less often which could relate to structural barriers and balancing work/family responsibilities.
Nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instrumentsGRAPE
This document outlines a study on nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instruments. It begins with an introduction and motivation for addressing endogeneity in nonparametric models. It then presents the simplest additive error model setup and discusses identification when the number of instruments is both greater than and less than the number of regressors. The document outlines two test statistics for the null hypothesis of exogeneity depending on this relationship. It also discusses estimation of the model parameters under both exogeneity and endogeneity. The summary provides a high-level overview of the key topics, models, and hypotheses discussed in the document in 3 sentences.
Minimum wage violation in Central and Eastern European GRAPE
This document summarizes research on minimum wage violations in Central and Eastern Europe between 2003-2012. The research finds that minimum wage violation rates were low to moderate across countries but increased during economic downturns. Higher minimum wages relative to average wages were associated with higher violation rates. Vulnerable groups like women and less educated workers faced higher risks of violation. While violation levels were usually shallow, employers sometimes underpaid workers by ignoring recent minimum wage increases. Overall, minimum wage policies were only effective if employers complied with wage laws.
Do gender and beauty affect assessment of academic performance?GRAPE
This document discusses research on whether gender and physical attractiveness affect academic assessment. It summarizes previous studies that found small effects, such as more attractive students receiving higher grades. The present study analyzed over 15,000 thesis evaluations from the University of Warsaw. It found no significant differences in advisor vs referee grades based on student gender or rated attractiveness. While imperfect measures may have limited the study, the results suggest gender and beauty did not bias academic assessments in this large Polish university sample.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGilbert Mbara
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which firms evade the employer contribution component of social security taxes by offering some workers non-formal contracts. When calibrated, the model yields estimates of dual labor market participation consistent with empirical evidence for the EU14 countries and the US. We investigate the optimal mix of the avoidable and unavoidable components of labor taxes and analyze the fiscal and macroeconomics effects of bringing the composition to the welfare optimum. We find that partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance is not necessarily a welfare enhancing policy mix.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGRAPE
This document summarizes an analysis of optimal tax policy in labor markets with duality. It presents a model with two types of labor contracts (typical and atypical) and two types of labor taxes (unavoidable income tax and avoidable social security contributions). The model is calibrated using data from EU countries to examine how tax revenues respond to different tax rates and compositions. The results show that tax revenues are more responsive to avoidable social security taxes than unavoidable income taxes due to evasion incentives. Although the revenue-maximizing tax rate is flat, the model predictions align reasonably well with real-world data on irregular employment across countries.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Revisiting gender board diversity and firm performanceGRAPE
Cel: oszacować wpływ inkluzywności władz spółek na ich wyniki.
Co wiemy?
• Większość firm nie ma równosci płci w organach (ILO, 2015)
• Większość firm nie ma w ogóle kobiet we władzach
Demographic transition and the rise of wealth inequalityGRAPE
We study the contribution of rising longevity to the rise of wealth inequality in the U.S. over the last seventy years. We construct an OLG model with multiple sources of inequality, closely calibrated to the data. Our main finding is that improvements in old-age longevity explain about 30% of the observed rise in wealth inequality. This magnitude is similar to previously emphasized channels associated with income inequality and the tax system. The contribution of demographics is bound to raise wealth inequality further in the decades to come.
(Gender) tone at the top: the effect of board diversity on gender inequalityGRAPE
The research explores to what extent the presence of women on board affects gender inequality downstream. We find that increasing presence reduces gender inequality. To avoid reverse causality, we propose a new instrument: the share of household consumption in total output. We extend the analysis to recover the effect of a single woman on board (tokenism(
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with various managerial theories, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited
effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
This document introduces a framework for analyzing contracts between a principal and multiple agents who have interdependent preferences. It begins with a simple example involving two agents who can choose between working and shirking, and whose outputs are either success or failure. The agents have interdependent utility that depends on both their own material payoff and their conjecture of the other agent's utility.
The document then outlines the research agenda, which is to characterize optimal contracts when agents have interdependent preferences and to provide recommendations for contract design based on whether preferences are positively or negatively interdependent. Finally, it presents some general results, finding that independent contracts are no longer optimal when preferences are interdependent, and that contracts should incorporate both individual performance bonuses and team
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...GRAPE
We address the gender wage gap in Europe, focusing on the impact of female representation in executive and non-executive boards. We use a novel dataset to identify gender board diversity across European firms, which covers a comprehensive sample of private firms in addition to publicly listed ones. Our study spans three waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey, covering 26 countries and multiple industries. Despite low prevalence of female representation and the complex nature of gender wage inequality, our findings reveal a robust causal link: increased gender diversity significantly decreases the adjusted gender wage gap. We also demonstrate that to meaningfully impact gender wage gaps, the presence of a single female representative in leadership is insufficient.
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15\% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with the Public Eye Managerial Theory, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large New Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economies, we use this model to provide comparative statics across past and contemporaneous age structures of the working population. Thus, we quantify the extent to which the response of labor markets to adverse TFP shocks and monetary policy shocks becomes muted with the aging of the working population. Our findings have important policy implications for European labor markets and beyond. For example, the working population is expected to further age in Europe, whereas the share of young workers will remain robust in the US. Our results suggest a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle. Furthermore, with the aging population, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy should be more hawkish in the older society.
This document discusses how labor market inequality may push disadvantaged groups like women into entrepreneurship out of necessity. It presents a theoretical framework showing how greater gender employment gaps could increase the prevalence of female self-employment. The authors test this using data on gender wage and employment gaps matched with survey data on entrepreneurship. Their results show a robust positive effect of gender employment gaps on necessity-driven female entrepreneurship but little effect of wage gaps. This provides empirical support that labor market discrimination can push disadvantaged groups into self-employment when other employment options are limited.
Evidence concerning inequality in ability to realize aspirations is prevalent: overall, in specialized segments of the labor market, in self-employment and high-aspirations environments. Empirical literature and public debate are full of case studies and comprehensive empirical studies documenting the paramount gap between successful individuals (typically ethnic majority men) and those who are less likely to “make it” (typically ethnic minority and women). So far the drivers of these disparities and their consequences have been studied much less intensively, due to methodological constraints and shortage of appropriate data. This project proposes significant innovations to overcome both types of barriers and push the frontier of the research agenda on equality in reaching aspirations.
Overall, project is interdisciplinary, combining four fields: management, economics, quantitative methods and psychology. An important feature of this project is that it offers a diversified methodological perspective, combining applied microeconometrics, as well as experimental methods.
- The document discusses the optimal assignment of property rights when a social planner cannot commit to future trading mechanisms. This lack of commitment results in ex-post inefficiency and inefficient investment decisions due to hold-up problems.
- The social planner chooses property rights to alleviate these frictions. The paper proposes a framework to characterize the optimal property right using a mechanism design approach. The main result is that the optimal property right is simple but flexible, often featuring an option to own the property.
The document presents a framework for studying the optimal design of contractual property rights using mechanism design. It discusses how property rights determine agents' outside options in economic interactions and impact ex-post efficiency and investment incentives when the social planner cannot commit to future mechanisms. The authors analyze how to design property rights to alleviate these frictions in a setting with one-sided private information and bargaining power. A key result is that the optimal property right is often simple but flexible, featuring an option to own the resource.
The document presents a framework for studying the optimal design of contractual property rights. It discusses how property rights determine agents' outside options in economic interactions and impact ex-post efficiency and investment incentives when a social planner cannot commit to future mechanisms. The authors' contribution is characterizing the optimal property right from a non-parametric class in a setting with one-sided private information and bargaining power, finding that flexible rights featuring an option to own are often optimal.
1. Group for Research in Applied Economics
Makroekonomiczne skutki reform
systemu emerytalnego
dr Jan Hagemejer, UW
dr Krzysztof Makarski, SGH
dr hab. Joanna Tyrowicz, UW
(z pomocą A. Borowskiej, K. Goraus i M. Bieleckiego)
Grant NCN nr UMO-2011/01/D/HS4/04039
Opinie wyrażone w tym materiale odzwierciedlają stanowisko autorów
i nie powinny być utożsamiane z instytucjami, z którymi są związani.
2. Plan prezentacji
Logika modeli OLG
Makroekonomiczne skutki reformy z 1999?
Mechanizmy w modelu
Model vs. rzeczywistość, czyli krytyczna ocena wyników
Skutki proponowanych zmian w systemie
Dobrowolność
Suwak
Zmiana portfela OFE
Przeniesienie aktywów
Jakie są skutki rozwiązania wybranego w 2013?
Wnioski (w tym: ograniczenia modelu)
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6. Jak działają modele OLG?
Obywatel = konsument
„uczciwie” optymalizuje pracę i konsumpcję na całe swoje życie
zna średnią długość życia + przebieg zmiennych makro
Rząd
pobiera podatki, wydaje stały odsetek PKB
finansuje (z podatków) deficyt ZUS
System emerytalny
stary: PAYG DB => stała niezmienna stopa zastąpienia
nowy: PAYG DC (ZUS) + FF DC (OFE) => zmienna stopa zastąpienia
egzogeniczny (rosnący) wiek emerytalny
Model równowagi ogólnej
rozwiązanie: taka stopa procentowa, że popyt firm = podaż obywateli
z tego wynika: konsumpcja, podatki, równowaga rządu + dobrobyt
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7. Jak rozumieć dobrobyt?
Dotąd Joanna konsumowała 30 wyjść na basen i 4 tygodnie urlopu w roku.
To był efekt jej optymalizacji (preferencje), przy zadanych cenach
Rząd postanowił umilić jej życie, modyfikując stawki podatków tak, że przy
nowych cenach Joanna „wybiera” 15 wyjść na basen i 10 tygodniu urlopu.
Lepiej Joannie?
Basen
Urlop
Użyteczność
Przed
30
4
lnB+lnU = 4.7875 utyli
Po
15
10
lnB+lnU = 5.0106 utyli
Lepiej, ale o ile? Ile to jest 0.2231 utyli?
0.2231 utyli = ln[30*(1+11.8%)] + ln[4*(1+11.8%)] = ln[15]+ ln[10]
Ekwiwalent konsumpcji: ta zmiana jest równoważna wzrostowi
konsumpcji o 11.8%
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8. Czy reforma z 1999 r. była społecznie korzystna?
TAK
(w świetle naszego analiz dobrobytu w modelu)
1. Wzrost kapitału = > wzrost PKB (w porównaniu do status quo)
na skutek oszczędności w II filarze
na skutek oszczędności prywatnych ( z powodu dużego spadku emerytur)
2. Wyższy dobrobyt
na skutek niższego wzrostu podatków
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9. Mechanizmy w modelu
Gospodarka „skalibrowana” do danych za 1999 => zgodne:
stopa inwestycji przy zadanej deprecjacji i standardowych preferencjach
=> rynkowa stopa procentowa
podaż pracy i ścieżka produktywności w cyklu życia
stopa zastąpienia w PAYG DB oraz „dziura” w ZUS
stopy podatków: PIT, VAT i od odsetek od przychodów kapitałowych
1. Liczymy status quo
demografia + wiek emerytalny + ścieżka wzrostu gospodarczego (AWG)
2. Liczymy świat „po reformie”
j.w. + inny system emerytalny
Porównujemy użyteczność w status quo i „po reformie” dla każdej
kohorty i staramy się zrekompensować straty z nadwyżek
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15. Skutki reformy z 1999 r. wobec status quo
Sposób finansowania reformy rzutuje na ścieżkę dostosowania
kapitału
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16. Skutki reformy z 1999 r. wobec status quo
Sposób finansowania reformy rzutuje na ścieżkę dostosowania
kapitału
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17. Skutki reformy z 1999 r. wobec status quo
Podatki i tak wzrosną, a dług rośnie szybciej niż bez OFE …
… ale łączny wzrost podatków/długu jest znacznie niższy
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18. Skutki reformy z 1999 r. wobec status quo
System zdefiniowanej składki (DC) płaci znacznie niższe
emerytury niż zdefiniowanego świadczenia (DB)
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19. Skutki reformy z 1999 r. wobec status quo
Zmiana sposobu naliczania generuje nadwyżkę w ZUS (i OFE)
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20. Skutki reform z 1999 r - podsumowanie
1. Wzrost kapitału => wzrost PKB (o ok. 3%)
2. Niższa stopa zastąpienia i emerytury (o ok. 40%)
3. Po okresowym pogorszeniu deficytu ZUS, poprawa
kasowo: nadwyżka w ZUS
4. Stabilność fiskalna przy nieznacznie wyższych podatkach
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np. udział VAT w konsumpcji: z 11% na ok. 12% (zamiast 16%!)
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21. Skutki reformy z 1999 r – model a realia
Model
Realia (efekty makro)
Konsumenci wiedzą, że emerytury
spadną, więc oszczędzają ex ante.
Oszczędności prywatne wzrosną mniej =>
efekt na kapitał i PKB mniejszy i głównie
przez OFE
Nie zmieniają się wydatki rządowe, więc
podatki podążają za deficytem ZUS
…
System emerytalny jest powszechny (nie
ma innych źródeł deficytu ZUS)
Są inne źródła deficytu ZUS + koszty
obsługi tego dodatkowego długu
Konsumenci jednakowi w kohorcie +
aktuarialna sprawiedliwość
Emerytury minimalne i wdowie =>
prawdopodobieństwo nadwyżki w ZUS?
W długim okresie przyrost naturalny się
stabilizuje (≈stopa dzietności wzrosła)
?
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22. Czy proponowane i wprowadzone obecnie
zmiany są społecznie korzystne?
NIE
(w świetle naszego analiz dobrobytu w modelu)
1. Spadnie dobrobyt (w porównaniu do status quo = reforma 1999)
na skutek niższej indeksacji i niższej waloryzacji (suwak!)
spada kapitał i PKB w długim okresie (choć nieznacznie)
2. Ścieżka kapitału (i PKB) zależy od dostosowania fiskalnego
obniżenie długu = krótkookresowo wzrost kapitału
obniżenie podatków lub wzrost wydatków = negatywne skutki dla kapitału
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23. Skutki proponowanych (i wprowadzonych) zmian
2011: przesunięcie składki
2013: propozycje
1. zmiana konstrukcji portfela
dotąd: r_ofe= (1-a)*r_rząd+a*r_rynek(=MPK-deprecjacja)
odtąd: r_ofe=r_rynek (=MPK-deprecjacja)
2. dobrowolność
dotąd: powszechne członkostwo w OFE
odtąd: 50% każdej kohorty w OFE
3. suwak
dotąd: emerytury wypłacają OFE (stopniowe „zjadanie” oszczędności)
odtąd: emerytury wypłaca ZUS (skokowe zjadanie oszczędności)
4. przesunięcie obligacji
dotąd: obligacje oszczędnościami w II filarze
odtąd: umorzenie obligacji + zobowiązania implicite w I filarze
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24. Jak modelować zmiany w nowym systemie?
Status quo: brak zmian w systemie z 1999 r
emerytury aktuarialnie sprawiedliwe wypłacają OFE
składki, portfel i członkostwo w OFE: niezmienne
Po reformie: zmiany w tym systemie
ulga fiskalna => niższe podatki lub obniżenie długu
jeśli obniżamy dług: w długim okresie powrót do 45% PKB
jeśli obniżamy podatki: w długim okresie powrót do 45% PKB, ale w
okresie dostosowań, dług stały (jak w status quo)
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30. Dobrobytowe skutki zmian
Łączny efekt dla żyjących i przyszłych (wobec status quo)
przesunięcie składki
dobrowolność
suwak
portfel
przesunięcie obligacji
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
Pogorszenie dobrobytu głównie z dwóch powodów:
emerytury i stopy zastąpienia (głównie na skutek różnic indeksacji)
podatki
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35. Wnioski cząstkowe
Emerytury: spadają (wyjątek: portfel)
Dług publiczny / podatki:
niższe gdy suwak, przesunięcie składki i dobrowolność
przesunięcie obligacji – efekt jednorazowy
Zmiana PKB zależy od sposobu dostosowania fiskalnego
efekt wypychania kluczowy: spadek długu sprzyja wzrostowi
kapitału, a PKB podąża za kapitałem
zmiany kapitału mają charakter przejściowy, docelowo
zawsze kapitał niższy niż w status quo (dług/PKB=45%)
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36. Reforma 2013 jest złożeniem pięciu aspektów
Dobrowolność (50% wróci do ZUS, 50% zostanie w OFE)
Przesunięcie obligacji (jednorazowe) => model a rzeczywistość
Przesunięcie składki (docelowe)
Zmiana struktury portfela
Suwak
Łączny efekt:
dobrobytowy ujemny (bo wszystkie składowe ujemne)
dług – obniża się deficyt ZUS, można obniżyć dług lub
podatki
kapitał – spada (choć w krótkim okresie zależy to od
dostosowania fiskalnego)
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37. Dług publiczny / podatki
wybrany wariant nie najkorzystniejszy
gros korzyści zapewniają zmiany z
2011
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potencjał obniżki podatków podobny
jak w przypadku długu
ale większość efektu ma charakter
przejściowy…
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38. … ale można także po prostu obniżać podatki
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41. Poza modelem…
Kwestie techniczne – model nie mówi o:
optymalnej strategii inwestycyjnej OFE
zmianach w aktywności zawodowej (ALE: wydłużamy wiek emerytalny)
mikroekonomii systemu (ALE: uwzględniamy je)
Kwestie polityki gospodarczej
Nieoczywista funkcja celu polityków (dług + podatki + wydatki
rządowe), co utrudnia określenie, jakie faktywnie będą skutki zmian w
gospodarce
Racjonalna reakcja obywateli: „ przewrotne” efekty suwaka i portfela
(rzeczywiste koszty dobrobytowe większe niż wynika z modelu)
Ekonomia polityczna systemu emerytalnego – starzejące się
społeczeństwo o niskich emeryturach?
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42. Wnioski
Reforma z 1999 r
podnosi kapitał, PKB, obniża podatki i dług
obniża emerytury (stopy zastąpienia)
podnosi dobrobyt (m.in. dlatego, że rosną dobrowolne oszczędności
prywatne)
finansowanie ubytku w ZUS długiem publicznym optymalne
koszt reformy skoncentrowany na pokoleniach żyjących w jej czasie
Wprowadzone w 2011 i proponowane obecnie zmiany
obniżają dobrobyt
obniżają poziom emerytur
umożliwiają obniżenie długu publiczny, ale dużo osiągnięto zmianami z 2011
koszty tych nowych zmian obciążą także przyszłe pokolenia
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