Nigdy nie jest za pózno? Ograniczenie przywilejów emerytalnych w PolsceGRAPE
Oliwia Komada Paweł Strzelecki Joanna Tyrowicz
GRAPE|FAME
Narodowy Bank Polski
Szkoła Główna Handlowa
Uniwersytet Warszawski
Konferencja Długoterminowe Oszczędzanie
Szkoła Główna Handlowa
czerwiec 2016
W poszukiwaniu optymalnego sposobu wprowadzenia lara kapitałowegoGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz i Krzysztof Makarski
oraz Marcin Bielecki, Marcin Waniek i Jan Woznica
Group for Research in Applied Economics
Konferencja D lugoterminowe Oszczedzanie - SGH - 2016
Nigdy nie jest za pózno? Ograniczenie przywilejów emerytalnych w PolsceGRAPE
Oliwia Komada Paweł Strzelecki Joanna Tyrowicz
GRAPE|FAME
Narodowy Bank Polski
Szkoła Główna Handlowa
Uniwersytet Warszawski
Konferencja Długoterminowe Oszczędzanie
Szkoła Główna Handlowa
czerwiec 2016
W poszukiwaniu optymalnego sposobu wprowadzenia lara kapitałowegoGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz i Krzysztof Makarski
oraz Marcin Bielecki, Marcin Waniek i Jan Woznica
Group for Research in Applied Economics
Konferencja D lugoterminowe Oszczedzanie - SGH - 2016
The document discusses a 2009 reform in Poland that gradually increased the retirement age. It presents the following:
1) The reform eliminated early retirement eligibility for most workers born after 1954 (women) and 1949 (men), increasing the retirement age to 55-60 or 55-65 respectively.
2) Using a regression discontinuity design on longitudinal data, it finds a statistically significant but small discontinuity in transitions to early retirement around the cutoff dates.
3) Placebo tests find similar sized discontinuities in other time periods, suggesting the observed effect may not be caused solely by the reform. The reform had a small impact on retirement behavior relative to its scope.
Nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instrumentsGRAPE
This document outlines a study on nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instruments. It begins with an introduction and motivation for addressing endogeneity in nonparametric models. It then presents the simplest additive error model setup and discusses identification when the number of instruments is both greater than and less than the number of regressors. The document outlines two test statistics for the null hypothesis of exogeneity depending on this relationship. It also discusses estimation of the model parameters under both exogeneity and endogeneity. The summary provides a high-level overview of the key topics, models, and hypotheses discussed in the document in 3 sentences.
Gender and research funding in a Norwegian contextGRAPE
1) The document analyzes gender perspectives in research funding in Norway through a literature review and interviews with research council program managers and funded researchers.
2) Key findings include that mentoring and career support initiatives may not fully address gender challenges, and that examining financial conditions and their interaction with disciplinary career dynamics is important.
3) Challenges in the grant application process include potential bias if evaluators know each other and if divergent proposals are less likely to be approved, though these challenges ostensibly affect both men and women.
The document discusses gender differences in PhD career paths and access to funding in Poland and Norway. Some key points:
- Polish PhD graduates were more likely to see traditional academic careers, while Norwegian graduates more often sought non-academic research jobs.
- Polish PhD graduates had less stable employment, with half in temporary positions compared to over 70% of Norwegian graduates in permanent roles.
- Norwegian men were more likely than women to secure permanent employment after PhD completion.
- Access to research funding differed between countries and genders, with women applying for grants less often which could relate to structural barriers and balancing work/family responsibilities.
Author's gender affects rating of academic articleGRAPE
1) The document describes an experiment that tested whether the gender of an academic author affects ratings of their work. Papers ostensibly written by female and male authors were evaluated.
2) Results found that papers written by female authors were less likely to be judged as having been published in a top journal, though direct ratings of competence did not differ by gender.
3) Interpretation of the results was controversial, as it was unclear if lower publication judgments of female-authored works reflected beliefs about author competence or awareness of gender bias in publishing. Follow-up experiments found no evidence that raters changed evaluations after learning the author's gender.
Minimum wage violation in Central and Eastern European GRAPE
This document summarizes research on minimum wage violations in Central and Eastern Europe between 2003-2012. The research finds that minimum wage violation rates were low to moderate across countries but increased during economic downturns. Higher minimum wages relative to average wages were associated with higher violation rates. Vulnerable groups like women and less educated workers faced higher risks of violation. While violation levels were usually shallow, employers sometimes underpaid workers by ignoring recent minimum wage increases. Overall, minimum wage policies were only effective if employers complied with wage laws.
Within occupation wage dispersion and task inequalityGRAPE
We argue that the distribution of tasks affects wage inequality within occupations. We show that occupations with more routine tasks, particularly cognitive, tend to show higher wage dispersion at the top and at the bottom of the income distribution.
The shadow of longevity – does social security reform reduce gains from incre...GRAPE
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare effects of increasing the retirement age under different pension systems (defined benefit, notional defined contribution, and funded defined contribution). The study finds that increasing the retirement age is a universally efficient reform that improves welfare. Specifically:
1) Increasing the retirement age leads to higher aggregate labor supply, though individual labor supply may decrease for some.
2) Everyone gains from the reform, as beneficiaries receive higher pensions under defined contribution systems and taxpayers pay lower taxes to support defined benefit pensions.
3) While capital per worker decreases slightly, this is mostly due to a reduction in precautionary savings rather than true economic effects.
The document analyzes differences in research funding received by men and women in Poland. It finds that while women make up about half of grant applicants, they receive a lower proportion of funds and have a slightly lower success rate than men. Interviews with experts found the funding system is seen as fair and merit-based. However, some noted family responsibilities may disadvantage women scientists. Suggested reforms include policies to better support scientists with family/care duties such as childcare funding and extended eligibility for leave periods. Overall, the document presents data on gender differences in Polish research funding and perspectives on improving support for female scientists.
Study on gender misattributions in citations of scientific papers - female-turned-male errors are more common than the reverse, but there is not a lot of mistakes in general
Do gender and beauty affect assessment of academic performance?GRAPE
This document discusses research on whether gender and physical attractiveness affect academic assessment. It summarizes previous studies that found small effects, such as more attractive students receiving higher grades. The present study analyzed over 15,000 thesis evaluations from the University of Warsaw. It found no significant differences in advisor vs referee grades based on student gender or rated attractiveness. While imperfect measures may have limited the study, the results suggest gender and beauty did not bias academic assessments in this large Polish university sample.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGilbert Mbara
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which firms evade the employer contribution component of social security taxes by offering some workers non-formal contracts. When calibrated, the model yields estimates of dual labor market participation consistent with empirical evidence for the EU14 countries and the US. We investigate the optimal mix of the avoidable and unavoidable components of labor taxes and analyze the fiscal and macroeconomics effects of bringing the composition to the welfare optimum. We find that partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance is not necessarily a welfare enhancing policy mix.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGRAPE
This document summarizes an analysis of optimal tax policy in labor markets with duality. It presents a model with two types of labor contracts (typical and atypical) and two types of labor taxes (unavoidable income tax and avoidable social security contributions). The model is calibrated using data from EU countries to examine how tax revenues respond to different tax rates and compositions. The results show that tax revenues are more responsive to avoidable social security taxes than unavoidable income taxes due to evasion incentives. Although the revenue-maximizing tax rate is flat, the model predictions align reasonably well with real-world data on irregular employment across countries.
The impact of business cycle fluctuations on aggregate endogenous growth ratesGRAPE
This document summarizes Marc Bielecki's research on modeling the impact of business cycle fluctuations on endogenous growth rates. The research aims to develop a single framework to analyze both business cycle and growth phenomena. Key contributions include a microfounded aggregate R&D intensity function and modeling of innovating, heterogeneous firms hit by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. Empirical evidence shows entry, expansions and contractions are procyclical. The model can replicate these features and shows that temporary productivity shocks can have permanent effects by shifting the long-run growth rate.
1. The study examines whether gender gaps in labor markets push women into necessity entrepreneurship or pull them into aspirational entrepreneurship.
2. The results show robust evidence that larger gender gaps in employment and wages are positively associated with higher rates of necessity entrepreneurship among women, but not associated with aspirational entrepreneurship.
3. There is no link found between gender gaps and aspirational female entrepreneurship, providing evidence that gender gaps push more women into necessity entrepreneurship due to lack of alternatives rather than pulling them by their aspirations.
Using data from Germany, we explore how the gender wage gap evolves as workers get older. Our method, based on panel data, allows to disentangle effects of age-cohort-year. We discover that the penalization grows faster during the reproductive period, and it does not fall afterwards. These results call for policies aimed to correct inequalities among older workers.
We explore the reasons behind the fall of female employment rates in transition economies and compare them to the evolution in advanced economies. Using a large set of micro level databases, we find that the mechanisms that lead to an increasing female presence in the labor market (higher education and postponing marriage) do not seem to play a role in transition economies.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
The document discusses a 2009 reform in Poland that gradually increased the retirement age. It presents the following:
1) The reform eliminated early retirement eligibility for most workers born after 1954 (women) and 1949 (men), increasing the retirement age to 55-60 or 55-65 respectively.
2) Using a regression discontinuity design on longitudinal data, it finds a statistically significant but small discontinuity in transitions to early retirement around the cutoff dates.
3) Placebo tests find similar sized discontinuities in other time periods, suggesting the observed effect may not be caused solely by the reform. The reform had a small impact on retirement behavior relative to its scope.
Nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instrumentsGRAPE
This document outlines a study on nonparametric testing for exogeneity with discrete regressors and instruments. It begins with an introduction and motivation for addressing endogeneity in nonparametric models. It then presents the simplest additive error model setup and discusses identification when the number of instruments is both greater than and less than the number of regressors. The document outlines two test statistics for the null hypothesis of exogeneity depending on this relationship. It also discusses estimation of the model parameters under both exogeneity and endogeneity. The summary provides a high-level overview of the key topics, models, and hypotheses discussed in the document in 3 sentences.
Gender and research funding in a Norwegian contextGRAPE
1) The document analyzes gender perspectives in research funding in Norway through a literature review and interviews with research council program managers and funded researchers.
2) Key findings include that mentoring and career support initiatives may not fully address gender challenges, and that examining financial conditions and their interaction with disciplinary career dynamics is important.
3) Challenges in the grant application process include potential bias if evaluators know each other and if divergent proposals are less likely to be approved, though these challenges ostensibly affect both men and women.
The document discusses gender differences in PhD career paths and access to funding in Poland and Norway. Some key points:
- Polish PhD graduates were more likely to see traditional academic careers, while Norwegian graduates more often sought non-academic research jobs.
- Polish PhD graduates had less stable employment, with half in temporary positions compared to over 70% of Norwegian graduates in permanent roles.
- Norwegian men were more likely than women to secure permanent employment after PhD completion.
- Access to research funding differed between countries and genders, with women applying for grants less often which could relate to structural barriers and balancing work/family responsibilities.
Author's gender affects rating of academic articleGRAPE
1) The document describes an experiment that tested whether the gender of an academic author affects ratings of their work. Papers ostensibly written by female and male authors were evaluated.
2) Results found that papers written by female authors were less likely to be judged as having been published in a top journal, though direct ratings of competence did not differ by gender.
3) Interpretation of the results was controversial, as it was unclear if lower publication judgments of female-authored works reflected beliefs about author competence or awareness of gender bias in publishing. Follow-up experiments found no evidence that raters changed evaluations after learning the author's gender.
Minimum wage violation in Central and Eastern European GRAPE
This document summarizes research on minimum wage violations in Central and Eastern Europe between 2003-2012. The research finds that minimum wage violation rates were low to moderate across countries but increased during economic downturns. Higher minimum wages relative to average wages were associated with higher violation rates. Vulnerable groups like women and less educated workers faced higher risks of violation. While violation levels were usually shallow, employers sometimes underpaid workers by ignoring recent minimum wage increases. Overall, minimum wage policies were only effective if employers complied with wage laws.
Within occupation wage dispersion and task inequalityGRAPE
We argue that the distribution of tasks affects wage inequality within occupations. We show that occupations with more routine tasks, particularly cognitive, tend to show higher wage dispersion at the top and at the bottom of the income distribution.
The shadow of longevity – does social security reform reduce gains from incre...GRAPE
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare effects of increasing the retirement age under different pension systems (defined benefit, notional defined contribution, and funded defined contribution). The study finds that increasing the retirement age is a universally efficient reform that improves welfare. Specifically:
1) Increasing the retirement age leads to higher aggregate labor supply, though individual labor supply may decrease for some.
2) Everyone gains from the reform, as beneficiaries receive higher pensions under defined contribution systems and taxpayers pay lower taxes to support defined benefit pensions.
3) While capital per worker decreases slightly, this is mostly due to a reduction in precautionary savings rather than true economic effects.
The document analyzes differences in research funding received by men and women in Poland. It finds that while women make up about half of grant applicants, they receive a lower proportion of funds and have a slightly lower success rate than men. Interviews with experts found the funding system is seen as fair and merit-based. However, some noted family responsibilities may disadvantage women scientists. Suggested reforms include policies to better support scientists with family/care duties such as childcare funding and extended eligibility for leave periods. Overall, the document presents data on gender differences in Polish research funding and perspectives on improving support for female scientists.
Study on gender misattributions in citations of scientific papers - female-turned-male errors are more common than the reverse, but there is not a lot of mistakes in general
Do gender and beauty affect assessment of academic performance?GRAPE
This document discusses research on whether gender and physical attractiveness affect academic assessment. It summarizes previous studies that found small effects, such as more attractive students receiving higher grades. The present study analyzed over 15,000 thesis evaluations from the University of Warsaw. It found no significant differences in advisor vs referee grades based on student gender or rated attractiveness. While imperfect measures may have limited the study, the results suggest gender and beauty did not bias academic assessments in this large Polish university sample.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGilbert Mbara
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which firms evade the employer contribution component of social security taxes by offering some workers non-formal contracts. When calibrated, the model yields estimates of dual labor market participation consistent with empirical evidence for the EU14 countries and the US. We investigate the optimal mix of the avoidable and unavoidable components of labor taxes and analyze the fiscal and macroeconomics effects of bringing the composition to the welfare optimum. We find that partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance is not necessarily a welfare enhancing policy mix.
Getting things right: optimal tax policy with labor market dualityGRAPE
This document summarizes an analysis of optimal tax policy in labor markets with duality. It presents a model with two types of labor contracts (typical and atypical) and two types of labor taxes (unavoidable income tax and avoidable social security contributions). The model is calibrated using data from EU countries to examine how tax revenues respond to different tax rates and compositions. The results show that tax revenues are more responsive to avoidable social security taxes than unavoidable income taxes due to evasion incentives. Although the revenue-maximizing tax rate is flat, the model predictions align reasonably well with real-world data on irregular employment across countries.
The impact of business cycle fluctuations on aggregate endogenous growth ratesGRAPE
This document summarizes Marc Bielecki's research on modeling the impact of business cycle fluctuations on endogenous growth rates. The research aims to develop a single framework to analyze both business cycle and growth phenomena. Key contributions include a microfounded aggregate R&D intensity function and modeling of innovating, heterogeneous firms hit by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. Empirical evidence shows entry, expansions and contractions are procyclical. The model can replicate these features and shows that temporary productivity shocks can have permanent effects by shifting the long-run growth rate.
1. The study examines whether gender gaps in labor markets push women into necessity entrepreneurship or pull them into aspirational entrepreneurship.
2. The results show robust evidence that larger gender gaps in employment and wages are positively associated with higher rates of necessity entrepreneurship among women, but not associated with aspirational entrepreneurship.
3. There is no link found between gender gaps and aspirational female entrepreneurship, providing evidence that gender gaps push more women into necessity entrepreneurship due to lack of alternatives rather than pulling them by their aspirations.
Using data from Germany, we explore how the gender wage gap evolves as workers get older. Our method, based on panel data, allows to disentangle effects of age-cohort-year. We discover that the penalization grows faster during the reproductive period, and it does not fall afterwards. These results call for policies aimed to correct inequalities among older workers.
We explore the reasons behind the fall of female employment rates in transition economies and compare them to the evolution in advanced economies. Using a large set of micro level databases, we find that the mechanisms that lead to an increasing female presence in the labor market (higher education and postponing marriage) do not seem to play a role in transition economies.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Revisiting gender board diversity and firm performanceGRAPE
Cel: oszacować wpływ inkluzywności władz spółek na ich wyniki.
Co wiemy?
• Większość firm nie ma równosci płci w organach (ILO, 2015)
• Większość firm nie ma w ogóle kobiet we władzach
Demographic transition and the rise of wealth inequalityGRAPE
We study the contribution of rising longevity to the rise of wealth inequality in the U.S. over the last seventy years. We construct an OLG model with multiple sources of inequality, closely calibrated to the data. Our main finding is that improvements in old-age longevity explain about 30% of the observed rise in wealth inequality. This magnitude is similar to previously emphasized channels associated with income inequality and the tax system. The contribution of demographics is bound to raise wealth inequality further in the decades to come.
(Gender) tone at the top: the effect of board diversity on gender inequalityGRAPE
The research explores to what extent the presence of women on board affects gender inequality downstream. We find that increasing presence reduces gender inequality. To avoid reverse causality, we propose a new instrument: the share of household consumption in total output. We extend the analysis to recover the effect of a single woman on board (tokenism(
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with various managerial theories, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited
effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
This document introduces a framework for analyzing contracts between a principal and multiple agents who have interdependent preferences. It begins with a simple example involving two agents who can choose between working and shirking, and whose outputs are either success or failure. The agents have interdependent utility that depends on both their own material payoff and their conjecture of the other agent's utility.
The document then outlines the research agenda, which is to characterize optimal contracts when agents have interdependent preferences and to provide recommendations for contract design based on whether preferences are positively or negatively interdependent. Finally, it presents some general results, finding that independent contracts are no longer optimal when preferences are interdependent, and that contracts should incorporate both individual performance bonuses and team
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...GRAPE
We address the gender wage gap in Europe, focusing on the impact of female representation in executive and non-executive boards. We use a novel dataset to identify gender board diversity across European firms, which covers a comprehensive sample of private firms in addition to publicly listed ones. Our study spans three waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey, covering 26 countries and multiple industries. Despite low prevalence of female representation and the complex nature of gender wage inequality, our findings reveal a robust causal link: increased gender diversity significantly decreases the adjusted gender wage gap. We also demonstrate that to meaningfully impact gender wage gaps, the presence of a single female representative in leadership is insufficient.
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15\% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with the Public Eye Managerial Theory, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large New Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economies, we use this model to provide comparative statics across past and contemporaneous age structures of the working population. Thus, we quantify the extent to which the response of labor markets to adverse TFP shocks and monetary policy shocks becomes muted with the aging of the working population. Our findings have important policy implications for European labor markets and beyond. For example, the working population is expected to further age in Europe, whereas the share of young workers will remain robust in the US. Our results suggest a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle. Furthermore, with the aging population, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy should be more hawkish in the older society.
This document discusses how labor market inequality may push disadvantaged groups like women into entrepreneurship out of necessity. It presents a theoretical framework showing how greater gender employment gaps could increase the prevalence of female self-employment. The authors test this using data on gender wage and employment gaps matched with survey data on entrepreneurship. Their results show a robust positive effect of gender employment gaps on necessity-driven female entrepreneurship but little effect of wage gaps. This provides empirical support that labor market discrimination can push disadvantaged groups into self-employment when other employment options are limited.
Evidence concerning inequality in ability to realize aspirations is prevalent: overall, in specialized segments of the labor market, in self-employment and high-aspirations environments. Empirical literature and public debate are full of case studies and comprehensive empirical studies documenting the paramount gap between successful individuals (typically ethnic majority men) and those who are less likely to “make it” (typically ethnic minority and women). So far the drivers of these disparities and their consequences have been studied much less intensively, due to methodological constraints and shortage of appropriate data. This project proposes significant innovations to overcome both types of barriers and push the frontier of the research agenda on equality in reaching aspirations.
Overall, project is interdisciplinary, combining four fields: management, economics, quantitative methods and psychology. An important feature of this project is that it offers a diversified methodological perspective, combining applied microeconometrics, as well as experimental methods.
- The document discusses the optimal assignment of property rights when a social planner cannot commit to future trading mechanisms. This lack of commitment results in ex-post inefficiency and inefficient investment decisions due to hold-up problems.
- The social planner chooses property rights to alleviate these frictions. The paper proposes a framework to characterize the optimal property right using a mechanism design approach. The main result is that the optimal property right is simple but flexible, often featuring an option to own the property.
The document presents a framework for studying the optimal design of contractual property rights using mechanism design. It discusses how property rights determine agents' outside options in economic interactions and impact ex-post efficiency and investment incentives when the social planner cannot commit to future mechanisms. The authors analyze how to design property rights to alleviate these frictions in a setting with one-sided private information and bargaining power. A key result is that the optimal property right is often simple but flexible, featuring an option to own the resource.
The document presents a framework for studying the optimal design of contractual property rights. It discusses how property rights determine agents' outside options in economic interactions and impact ex-post efficiency and investment incentives when a social planner cannot commit to future mechanisms. The authors' contribution is characterizing the optimal property right from a non-parametric class in a setting with one-sided private information and bargaining power, finding that flexible rights featuring an option to own are often optimal.
1. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów? -
zastosowanie metody RDD do analizy podniesienia
efektywnego wieku emerytalnego w Polsce
Paweł Strzelecki Joanna Tyrowicz
Narodowy Bank Polski,
Instytut Ekonomiczny
10 marca, 2015
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
2. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Plan prezentacji
1 Motywacja
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
2 Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
3 Wyniki
Podstawowe wyniki
Test placebo
Nieciągłości a cechy osób
4 Podsumowanie
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
4. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Zmiany w aktywnosci osób 50+
Rosnąca aktywnosć zawodowa osób w wieku 50+
Ograniczenie przechodzenia na wczesniejsze emerytury
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
5. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Zmiany w aktywnosci osób 50+
Rosnąca aktywnosć zawodowa osób w wieku 50+
Ograniczenie przechodzenia na wczesniejsze emerytury
Problem 1: (1) od 2007, (2) od 2009
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
6. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Zmiany w aktywnosci osób 50+
Rosnąca aktywnosć zawodowa osób w wieku 50+
Ograniczenie przechodzenia na wczesniejsze emerytury
Problem 1: (1) od 2007, (2) od 2009
Problem 2:
Rysunek: Dane: ZUSStrzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
7. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Zmiany w aktywnosci osób 50+
Rosnąca aktywnosć zawodowa osób w wieku 50+
Ograniczenie przechodzenia na wczesniejsze emerytury
Problem 1: (1) od 2007, (2) od 2009
Problem 2:
Rysunek: Dane: ZUSStrzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
8. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Co konkretnie zmieniła reforma?
Przed 2009 Po 2009
K ur. przed 1954 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
9. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Co konkretnie zmieniła reforma?
Przed 2009 Po 2009
K ur. przed 1954 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55
K ur. po 1954 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55 Staż 25 lat, wiek 60*
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
10. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Co konkretnie zmieniła reforma?
Przed 2009 Po 2009
K ur. przed 1954 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55
K ur. po 1954 Staż 25 lat, wiek 55 Staż 25 lat, wiek 60*
M ur. przed 1949 Staż 30 lat, wiek 60 Staż 30 lat, wiek 60
M ur. po 1949 Staż 30 lat, wiek 60 Staż 30 lat, wiek 65*
* wyjątek: wąska grupa zawodów, tzw. kryteria medyczne
Fakt: ponad 85% zawodów/pracowników utraciło prawo do
wczesniejszych emerytur
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
13. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Reforma 2009 jako naturalny eksperyment
Natura reformy
Kiedy wzrost aktywnosci zawodowej?
Rysunek: Aktywność - mężczyźni Rysunek: Aktywność - kobiety
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
14. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Hipotezy badawcze
Czy to reforma przesunęła faktyczny wiek opuszczenia rynku pracy?
H1: Spadek przejść na emeryturę
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
15. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Hipotezy badawcze
Czy to reforma przesunęła faktyczny wiek opuszczenia rynku pracy?
H1: Spadek przejść na emeryturę
H2: Wzrost szans na pozostanie w aktywności zawodowej
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
16. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Hipotezy badawcze
Czy to reforma przesunęła faktyczny wiek opuszczenia rynku pracy?
H1: Spadek przejść na emeryturę
H2: Wzrost szans na pozostanie w aktywności zawodowej
H3: Spadek odpływu do nieaktywności (tylko wiek)
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
17. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Hipotezy badawcze
Czy to reforma przesunęła faktyczny wiek opuszczenia rynku pracy?
H1: Spadek przejść na emeryturę
H2: Wzrost szans na pozostanie w aktywności zawodowej
H3: Spadek odpływu do nieaktywności (tylko wiek)
H4: Spadek odpływu do nieaktywności (wiek i staż pracy)
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
23. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Panel na bazie BAEL (2007-2012)
Uwzględnione uprawnienia do emerytur pomostowych
Obliczenia wieku w dniu 1.01.2009 z dokładnoscią do 1
kwartału
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
24. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Panel na bazie BAEL (2007-2012)
Uwzględnione uprawnienia do emerytur pomostowych
Obliczenia wieku w dniu 1.01.2009 z dokładnoscią do 1
kwartału
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
25. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Panel na bazie BAEL (2007-2012)
Uwzględnione uprawnienia do emerytur pomostowych
Obliczenia wieku w dniu 1.01.2009 z dokładnoscią do 1
kwartału
Dzięki panelowi możemy badać przejscia (literatura: stany)
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
26. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Panel na bazie BAEL (2007-2012)
Uwzględnione uprawnienia do emerytur pomostowych
Obliczenia wieku w dniu 1.01.2009 z dokładnoscią do 1
kwartału
Dzięki panelowi możemy badać przejscia (literatura: stany)
Dzięki BAEL możemy badać czynniki sprzyjające (np.
wykształcenie, struktura gospodarstwa domowego, itp)
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
27. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Statystyki opisowe
Before the reform After the reform
eligible ineligible eligible ineligible
No of individuals 68,788 562 2,083 38,535
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
28. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Statystyki opisowe
Before the reform After the reform
eligible ineligible eligible ineligible
No of individuals 68,788 562 2,083 38,535
LFPR (in %) 22.1 18.3 51.1 42.9
% of pensioners 52.7 12.6 39.4 19.3
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
29. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Hipotezy i metoda ich weryfikacji
Metoda RDD
Dane
Statystyki opisowe
Before the reform After the reform
eligible ineligible eligible ineligible
No of individuals 68,788 562 2,083 38,535
LFPR (in %) 22.1 18.3 51.1 42.9
% of pensioners 52.7 12.6 39.4 19.3
Quarterly transition probabilities:
H1: remain active 0.95 0.75 0.94 0.96
H2: exit to early pension 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.03
H3: exit to inactivity (age) 0.05 0.25 0.06 0.04
H4: exit (tenure) 0.05 - 0.05 0.03
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
30. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Podstawowe wyniki
Test placebo
Nieciągłości a cechy osób
Nieciągłość w momencie reformy
Tabela: RD estimation results: parameter of cut-off and its significance
Model Coefficient (Std. Err.) z-statistic Significance level
(a) transition to early retirement
- sharp -0.0108 0.0066 1.637 0.102
- fuzzy -0.0118 0.0072 -1.637 0.102
(b) remaining economically active
- sharp 0.0270 0.0095 -2.836 0.005
- fuzzy 0.0308 0.0109 2.835 0.005
(c) transition to inactivity (adequate age)
- sharp -0.0269 0.0095 2.829 0.005
- fuzzy -0.0308 0.0109 -2.828 0.005
(d) transition to inactivity (with sufficient tenure)
- sharp -0.0221 0.0095 2.324 0.020
- fuzzy -0.0252 0.0108 -2.324 0.020
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
32. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Podstawowe wyniki
Test placebo
Nieciągłości a cechy osób
Czy nieciągłości tylko w 2009 roku? (2)
Rysunek: Przejście do nieaktywności Rysunek: Przejście do niekatywności
(wystarczający staż)
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
33. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Podstawowe wyniki
Test placebo
Nieciągłości a cechy osób
Czy reforma różnie działała na rózne grupy ludzi?
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Reform quarter 0.3310*** -0.3311*** 0.3309*** 0.3312***
(0.048) (0.048) (0.048) (0.048)
Treatment 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0000 0.0000
(0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016)
Other retired in hh -0.0437
(0.028)
Other worker in hh -0.0331
(0.029)
Kid in hh -0.0647**
(0.027)
Female -0.0229
(0.029)
Primary -0.0637** -0.0628** -0.0619** -0.0657**
(0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.027)
Gymnasium -0.0374 -0.0363 -0.0354 -0.0395
(0.029) (0.029) (0.029) (0.029)
Vocational -0.0784*** -0.0775*** -0.0767*** -0.0802***
(0.026) (0.026) (0.026) (0.026)
Secondary 0.0420 0.0433 0.0445 0.0392
(0.032) (0.033) (0.033) (0.032)
Tertiary -0.0361 -0.0350 -0.0341 -0.0383
(0.029) (0.029) (0.029) (0.029)
FE for outcome variables Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
34. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Na co analiza pozwoliła odpowiedzieć?
Nieciągłości w 01.01.2009 istotne - wzrost pozostawania w
aktywności, spadek odpływów na emeryturę.
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
35. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Na co analiza pozwoliła odpowiedzieć?
Nieciągłości w 01.01.2009 istotne - wzrost pozostawania w
aktywności, spadek odpływów na emeryturę.
W przeszłości zdarzały się kwartały, w których występowały
nieciągłości podobnej skali
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
36. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Na co analiza pozwoliła odpowiedzieć?
Nieciągłości w 01.01.2009 istotne - wzrost pozostawania w
aktywności, spadek odpływów na emeryturę.
W przeszłości zdarzały się kwartały, w których występowały
nieciągłości podobnej skali
Oszacowane nieciągłości nie są duże, co wskazuje, że duża
cześć wzrostu aktywności mogłaby nastąpić nawet w
przypadku baraku reformy.
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?
37. Motywacja
Hipotezy,metoda, dane
Wyniki
Podsumowanie
Na co analiza pozwoliła odpowiedzieć?
Nieciągłości w 01.01.2009 istotne - wzrost pozostawania w
aktywności, spadek odpływów na emeryturę.
W przeszłości zdarzały się kwartały, w których występowały
nieciągłości podobnej skali
Oszacowane nieciągłości nie są duże, co wskazuje, że duża
cześć wzrostu aktywności mogłaby nastąpić nawet w
przypadku baraku reformy.
Nieciągłości w miarę podobnej skali wśród osób o różnych
cechach.
Strzelecki & Tyrowicz Wypieranie wcześniejszych emerytów?