Futures Specialists Helsinki workshop on futures thinking methods 22.3.2017. Includes slides on the futures of work, causal layered analysis, experiential foresight and the evolution of methods.

1. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD
Killer Methods for
Futures Thinking
Futures Specialists Helsinki 22.3.2017
Mikko Dufva, VTT oy
mikko.dufva@vtt.fi @mdufva

2. 23/03/2017 2
What types of
methods are
needed in this day
and age?
Change is towards
complexity and
new images of
futures needed
Evolution of
Methods
Case:
Futures of Work

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Methods emerge from specific contexts
Adapted from Kuosa, T., 2011. Evolution of futures studies. Futures, 43(3), 327–336.
Transformative
foresight
Prediction
thinking
Management
thinking
Systems
thinking
Critical
futures
studies
Proactive
futures
studies
Forecasting ScenariosDelphi
Experiential
methods
Postnormal
times
Causal
layered
analysis
Strategic
foresight
Technology
foresight

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Critical futures studies:
Unlearning the dominant vision
What assumptions are challenged and what are held?
or
How deep do we dig? (cf. Inayatullah: Causal layered analysis)
Level Problem Solution
Litany A news headline of the problem What should be done now?
System What are the causes? How to change the system?
Worldview Why is it a problem? How values should change?
Myth
What is the story behind the
problem?
What could be a new story?
Inayatullah, S., 1998. Causal layered analysis: poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30(8), 815–829.

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Postnormal times
“We are entering an era where complexity, chaos and
contradictions will become the dominant themes; and
uncertainty and ignorance will increase drastically”
Sardar, Z., 2015. Postnormal times revisited. Futures, 67, 26–39.
Sardar, Z., 2010. Welcome to postnormal times. Futures, 42(5), 435–444.
 VUCA: Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
 TUNA: Turbulence, unexpected uncertainty, novelty, ambiguity
Ramirez, R., Wilkinson, A., 2016. Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. Oxford University Press.

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Sardar, Z. & Sweeney, J.A., 2016. The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times. Futures, 75, 1–13.

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Experiential foresight
Use of art, drama, design, roleplay, gaming etc.
to bring futures to life and to explore them
Cuhls, K. & Daheim, C., 2016. Introduction to the Special Issue on “Experiencing Futures.” Futures.
Selin, C., 2015. Merging art and design in foresight: Making sense of Emerge. Futures, 70, 24–35.

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Bringing the future to the present
Exhibits from
the future
Guerrilla futures
Immersive
design fiction
http://jfsdigital.org/2017/02/27/reburg-envisioning-
circular-futures-through-immersive-design-fiction/
https://futuryst.blogspot.fi/2017/02/adopt-vision-
wikileaks-edition.html
http://austinot.com/sxsw-art-installations

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Why experiential and critical foresight?
 Current foresight outcomes
 a) reflect the near future needs of those in power and
 b) are inadequate to respond to the challenges set by post-normal
times.
 Experiential and critical foresight methods are more suitable
than “conventional” for
 a) bringing in new ideas about futures,
 b) embodying new perceptions of futures and
 c) capturing multiple perspectives

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Today one killer method from both lineages
Causal Layered
Analysis (CLA)
Drama &
Roleplay for
Futures Thinking
Critical futures
studies
Experiential
foresight

11. Case: Futures of work

13. tyontulevaisuus.fi

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Why work is changing?
Digitalization Globalization Aging

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What is the context for the change?
Economic
crisis
Crisis of
politics
Environmental
crisis

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Two discourses on the future of work in Finland
Increasing productivity Redefining work
Work as controlled,
linear production
Work as meaningful interaction
and problem solving
Focus on taxation, legislation,
welfare structures, export…
Focus on ways of working,
competences, organisations,
networks
Kolmas sekä-että
näkökulma?
Creativity and
community as
the bridge?

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What changes? The content of work
From producing
things
To joint problem
solving

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What changes? Employer
From hierarchical
and stable
organisations
To transient and
self-organising
communities

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What changes? Ways of working
From space and time
bound work
To many locations
and flexible activity

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What changes? Competence needs
From individual level
substance
knowledge
To community level
metaskills

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What changes? Livelihood
From regular
paycheck
To multiple sources
of income

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What changes? Economic focus?
From
competitiveness and
continuing growth
To increasing
sustainability

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What changes? Relationship with society?
From connecting
through employment
To societal
participation through
collaboration

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Summary: What changes in the future of work?
From producing things to joint problem solvingThe content of work
From space & time bound stable organisations to
flexible transient self-organising communitiesWays of working
From individual level substance knowledge to
community level metaskillsCompetences
From regular paycheck to multiple sources of
incomeLivelihood
From competitiveness to sustainabilityEconomic focus
From connecting through employment to societal
participation through collaborationSocietal relations

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Personas from the futures of work
Platform
hustler
Official
Experi-
mentor
Actor Tycoon
Nurse
Down-
shifter
Searching for
new direction
Experiments
accelerate
Newlyfound
communality
Grand-
mother
Integrator
Dis-
placed

26. Causal Layered Analysis

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Causal Layered Analysis
“Creating transformative spaces for the
creation of alternative futures”
Deconstructing the issue one layer at a time:
Level Problem Solution
Litany A news headline of the problem What should be done now?
System What are the causes? How to change the system?
Worldview Why is it a problem? How values should change?
Myth
What is the story behind the
problem?
What could be a new story?

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Example of layers
Litany
System
Worldview
Myth

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What to look for in each level?
• Over-dramatization, simplification, disconnected
images, groundless extrapolations, blaming othersLitany
• Short term history behind the issue, series of
interlinked actions, strong problem-solution
orientation
System
• Who benefits, what are the values, interests, who
is in control?Worldview
• Representative image, works of poetry, literature,
sci-fi, movies, religious myths, folk traditionMyth

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CLA assigment
 Choose one litany-level claim about the future of work
 Work your way downwards:
 What are the causes and impacts or the system behind the litany?
 What is the worldview in which the causes and impacts make
sense?
 What is the underlying myth?
 Challenge the layers from the bottom-up
 What could be an alternative myth?
 How would that myth change the worldview?
 How will the causes and impacts be different, what is the new
system?
 What would be a newspaper headline describing the new system?

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Bring your own methods - questions
 What method would you like to share with others? It can be
your favorite futures method, a method that you think
others need to know about or something that really made
you think.
 What types of methods futures studies is currently lacking?
Where do we need to put our effort?