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FORTRESS Cascading Effects presentation -ISCRAM 2015

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Presentation given on the FORTRESS project's work on triggers of cascading effects. ISCRAM Conference 2015.

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FORTRESS Cascading Effects presentation -ISCRAM 2015

  1. 1. @FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu Cascading effects in crises: categorisation and analysis of triggers Kim Hagen, Meropi Tzanetakis, Hayley Watson ISCRAM, Kristiansand, 25 May 2015
  2. 2. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Triggers of cascading effects • Cascading effects: Situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010) • FORTRESS project - Identify and understand cascading effects, how they unfold, and what their triggers are.
  3. 3. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Case studies of cascading disasters • Selection: • Frequency of crises • Cross-border aspect of crises • Presence and severity of cascading effects • Commonly occurring crises in Europe – EMDAT • Large non-European crises • Recent crises
  4. 4. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu List of case studies • 2005 London attacks, UK • 2000 Enschede fireworks factory explosion, the Netherlands • 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan • 1999 Galtür avalanche disaster, Austria • 2003 Heatwave, France • 2014 MH17 plane crash, Ukraine
  5. 5. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Approach and methodology • Excel sheet • Triggers of cascading effects • Time- when did what happen • Unfolding of events and actions in crisis management • Unfolding of the crisis itself • Negative effects • Sectors directly affected • Sectors indirectly affected
  6. 6. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  7. 7. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Blue arrow- direct causal relation Yellow arrow- of influence on Green line- subsequent steps but not a causal relation
  8. 8. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Blue arrow- direct causal relation Yellow arrow- of influence on Green line- subsequent steps but not a causal relation Red line- connects trigger in green column to the cascade it caused
  9. 9. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  10. 10. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  11. 11. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Approach and methodology Uniform approach for categorising the triggers of cascading effects • Disruption of • Information relation • Organisation relation • Supply relation • Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation • Disturbance relation • Pre-disaster conditions
  12. 12. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis What are common triggers of cascading effects and what are the implications for emergency management?
  13. 13. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of • Information relation • Organisation relation • Supply relation 2. Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation 3. Disturbance relation 4. Pre-disaster conditions
  14. 14. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of information relations: 11 times • Congestion of telecommunication networks
  15. 15. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Enschede fireworks factory explosion -Increase in call traffic placed constraints on communication between emergency managers and first responders.
  16. 16. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of information relations: 11 times • Congestion of telecommunication networks ►Importance of having separate reliable communication systems
  17. 17. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of organisational relations: 10 times • Decisions proved to be incorrect • Decisions based on incorrect information • Organisational responsibilities were not agreed upon
  18. 18. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Heatwave- France -No heatwave response plan was in place -Classification as an ‘emergency situation’ was delayed- it did not fit in the existing format -Poorly coordinated and inadequate response to the event
  19. 19. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of organisational relations: 10 times • Decisions based on incorrect information • Decisions proved to be wrong • Organisational responsibilities were not agreed upon ►Triangulation of knowledge provided by those who have a stake in the situation ►Importance of systematic organisation of both resources and people, between and within organisations, pre- and during disaster
  20. 20. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of supply relations: 7 times
  21. 21. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Galtür avalanche -Roads were inaccessible- no transport via roads -Not enough helicopters to bring emergency personnel and evacuate people
  22. 22. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Analysis 1. Disruption of relations Disruption of supply relations: 7 times • Supply of water ►Importance of access to resources
  23. 23. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Take home lessons ►Triggers of cascading effects can originate prior or during crisis ►Effective regulations can limit cascading effects ►Pre-crisis mitigation and preparation measures can limit the occurrence of triggers of cascading effects during crises ►Systems and human resources cannot be considered in isolation from each other
  24. 24. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu THANK YOU If you have any further questions or would like to be kept up-to-date with the project’s findings and events please contact: kim.hagen@trilateralresearch.com meropi.tzanetakis@vicesse.eu FORTRESS has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 607579.
  25. 25. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu Questions for discussion Paper: PPDR Information Systems – A Current Status Review Report by Dimitrios Kavallieros, George Leventakis, Stefanos Malliaros, Ioannis Daniilidis, Vasileios Grizis (KEMEA) 1. What are limitations of Information Systems being currently in place? 2. Which were the selection criteria for the reported Information Systems in the field of crisis management? questions

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