IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series provides a platform for all people striving to identify and implement evidence-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. The series is part of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.

1. Winners and losers from COVID-19:
Evidence from Google search data for Egypt
Kibrom Abay, Research Fellow, IFPRI
IFPRI-Egypt Seminar| March 02, 2021

2. 1. Introduction
 COVID-19 is disrupting the livelihoods of billions of people across the globe.
 Besides the obvious health impacts, there have been severe damages to national
economies
 These economic consequences are expected to vary across sectors and value
chains.
 The consequences and damages are also expected to depend on governments’
responses.
 These responses can only be effective if they are informed by evidence on who
loses (benefits) and by how much.
 Empirical evidence on the size and breadth of damages across various sectors and
value chains remain scant.
 In these contexts, we propose using unconventional sources of high-frequency
data, Google search

3. 2. Google search data for measuring demand for services
 The Google search index measures the extent to which a particular term or service
is searched using the Google search engine.
 The relevance of these data for understanding human behavior and human
activities is increasing with the penetration of internet across the world.
 Recent studies are using these data for understanding and quantifying the impact
of COVID-19 on mental health (Brodeur et al. 2020), economic anxiety (Fetzer et
al. 2020).
 Using these historical and near real-time time Google search data, we carefully
examine the evolution of demand for various services before and after the pandemic.

4. 3. Loser services
 After the first COVID-19 confirmed case in Egypt on 14 February, Google search
intensity for restaurants and hotels started to decline sharply.
 Figure 1: Google search popularity for restaurants and hotels in Egypt, June 2019 to May 2020
First COVID-19
confirmed case (Feb
14)
Government closes
restaurants, cafes, bars and
night clubs (Mar 18)
Government allows hotels to
operate with 25% capacity for
local tourism (May 15)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May

5. 3. Loser services
 Figure 1: Google search popularity for air travel and tourism, June 2019 to May 2020
Source: Google Trends (https://www.google.com/trends).

6. 3. Winner services
 Figure 3: Google search popularity for ICT and delivery services, June 2019 to May 2020

7. 4. Concluding Remarks
 We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction,
significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case
 Demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as ICT
and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost.
 These results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors
are experiencing heterogenous impacts
 Our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute
and complement conventional data sources inform immediate and medium-term
policy responses.