Economy-wide analysis and measuring investments The Online Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA)

1. Economy-wide analysis and
measuring investments
The Online Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA)

2. Economywide analysis
AIDA is an online tool for analyzing the economywide impacts of investments
in the agri-food system. The tool uses
• an economywide (CGE) model that captures
 all components of the agri-food system and
 linkages between sectors or activities, factors, households,
government & rest of world, and
 sub-national regions
• to assess the impact of agricultural investments on
 economic growth,
 job creation and
 household welfare
The model captures both
 an investment’s direct impacts, as well as
 all its indirect impacts or spillover effects on the rest of the economy.

3. CGE model captures …
Trading
Farming
Processing Non-AFS
Activities (producers)
Factor
markets
Product
markets
Government
Trade
Rest of world
Regional migration
& remittances
Aid
Investments & subsidies
Social transfers
Taxes
Rural
nonpoor
Rural
poor
Urban
poor
Urban
nonpoor
Households (consumers)
… linkages between activities, factors,
households, government & rest of world
Input suppliers
Imports
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Consumers
Exports
Food Services
… all components of the agri-
food system

4. Maize | Sorghum + millet | Rice | Wheat + barley | Other cereals | Pulses | Groundnuts | Other oilseeds | Cassava | Irish
potatoes | Sweet potatoes | Other roots | Leafy vegetables | Other vegetables | Sugarcane | Tobacco | Cotton + fibers | Nuts
| Bananas + plantains | Other fruits | Tea | Coffee | Cocoa | Cut flowers | Rubber | Other crops | Cattle | Raw milk | Poultry |
Eggs | Sheep + goats | Other livestock | Forestry | Aquaculture | Capture fisheries
Economic Structure of Nexus SAM| Accounts
Agricultural Sectors & Products
Coal | Crude oil | Natural gas | Other mining | Meat | Fish + seafood | Dairy | Fruits + vegetables | Fats + oils | Maize milling |
Sorghum + millet milling | Rice milling | Wheat + barley milling | Other grain milling | Sugar refining | Coffee processing | Tea
processing | Other foods | Animal feed | Beverages | Tobacco | Cotton yarn | Textiles | Clothing | Leather + footwear | Wood
| Paper | Petroleum | Chemicals | Non-metal minerals | Metals + metal products | Machinery | Equipment | Vehicles | Other
manufacturing | Electricity + gas | Water supply + sewage | Construction
Industrial Sectors & Products
Wholesale + retail trade | Transportation + storage | Accommodation | Food services | Information + communication |
Finance + insurance | Real estate activities | Business services | Public administration | Education | Health + social work |
Other services
Service Sectors & Products
35
39
12
Factors of Production
Crop land | Crop, livestock, mining and nonagricultural capital | Rural and urban labor by education category
13
Household groups
Rural farm and nonfarm households and urban households by national per capita expenditure quintiles
15

5. Measuring investment impacts
Easy to use tool for experimenting with different investment
options.
User designs a package of investments that differ by
• types (e.g. irrigation or extension; total of 8 for Tunisia),
• locations (i.e. subnational regions), and
• level of spending
User also
• decides how investments change farm productivity amongst
those who directly benefit from the intervention (e.g. effect of
irrigation on crop yields), and
• provides information on the unit cost of the investment (e.g.
dollars per farmer for extension services).

6. Investment Analysis
New investment outcome =
Current investment spending
Unit cost
Current stock = Previous stock + New investment outcome − Depreciation
Total productivity gain = Coverage rate × Impact per unit of outcome
Coverage rate =
Current stock
Max. potential stock
X
Model
u
E
User
d
Y
Model
User
a
Model
c
Model
P
User
b
User
Z
Financial accounting tool that converts investment
spending into productivity gains

7. Measuring investment impacts
AIDA takes this information and, using results from a CGE model,
reports the economywide impacts of the investment package on
• gross domestic product (GDP),
• employment, and
• household welfare (consumption).
Online AIDA is available in
• English: https://aida-tunisia.ifpri.org/#/en/national
• Arabic: https://aida-tunisia.ifpri.org/#/ar/national

8. Modeling without a model
with Online AIDA
Live demonstration Live exercises
Spend 90 M TND at default unit costs and default productivity changes on:
Extension services Agro-industries Irrigation
What is the impact on:
GDP Employment Household welfare

9. Designing national scenarios
On national scenarios page, click “Add Another Investment” and select a type
of investment from the dropdown menu. This displays three pieces of
information provided by the user:
(1) total investment expenditure measured in local currency;
(2) the cost of one unit of investment; and
(3) the productivity gain from providing one unit of investment.
For example, unit cost might be the cost of providing extension services to
one farmer, while the productivity gain could be the difference in crop yields
between farmers who and do not receive extension advice. AIDA provides
default values informed by past investment programs. A summary of direct
outcomes and impacts is shown to the right of each investment. More
investments can be added until the package is complete, then the user should
select “View Model Results”.

10. Investment options
Tunisia's AIDA model includes the following investment options:
• Agro-industries: Investments in grain processing, milk and dairy, fruit and
vegetables, marine products, consumer food and meat and poultry to
enhance food processing (units are 1000 firms)
• Dam building: Investments to enhance and improve the efficiency of
irrigation measures (units are 1000 ha)
• Extension services: Investments in public extension programs aiding
farmers to increase productivity (units are 1000 ha)
• Fishery fleet expansion: Investments to expand fishery fleets to increase
fish catch (units are 1000 boats)
• Fishery port development: Investments increase fishery productivity
(units are square km)
• Irrigation improvements: Investments to enhance and improve the
efficiency of irrigation measures (units are 1000 ha)
• Reforestation: Investments into measures to mitigate soil and water
erosion (units are 1000 ha)
• Soil conservation: Investments into measures to mitigate soil and water
erosion (units are 1000 ha)

11. Viewing results
Reported impacts of the investments include
• changes in GDP and employment by sector and
• changes in household welfare by household group.
GDP and employment include both percentage and absolute
changes (i.e. local currency or number of workers). Regional
scenario results include outcomes reported by region.
Results can be shared by clicking "Share results" and sending the
web-link or URL to others and/or be printed by clicking “Print”.