Gold and silver prices rose slightly while crude oil prices were nearly unchanged. Technical indicators show gold and silver are in overbought territory and may see selling pressure. Analysts recommend selling gold and expect it to fall to Rs. 30800. Crude oil is range-bound with support at Rs. 5238-5093 and resistance at Rs. 5366-5600. The report provides an analysis of commodity prices, technical indicators, and analysts' recommendations.

1. Daily Commodity Report
7th September 2012
MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
Gold Silver Crude
(5 Oct-12) (5 Dec-12) (19 Sep-12)
Gold opened higher at 31490 and moved higher to touch an intra-
Open 31,490 62,049 5,330 day high of 31818. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved
lower to touch an intra-day low of 31405. It ended the day on a flat
High 31,818 63,430 5,438 note to close at 31467.
Low 31,405 62,027 5,322
The Stochastic has slipped below its average. However, the RSI is
Close 31,467 62,339 5,339 still placed above its average but is on verge of slipping below it.
Moreover, both the Stochastic and the RSI are still placed in the
Prev. Close 31,468 61,882 5,327
over bought zone. These negative conditions would lead to selling
% Change 0.00% 0.74% 0.23% pressure and profit taking at regular intervals. The ADX line and
the +DI line are moving higher, indicating buyers have an upper
Source – MCX hand, however, profit booking is expected at regular intervals. MCX
Gold faces resistance at 31487, 31543, 31700 and 32000 while the
Volume (In 000's) support levels are placed at 31186, 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179,
29668 and 28859.
06/09/2012 05/09/2012 % Chg.
Positional Call – SELL MCX GOLD (5 OCT 12) around 31350,
Gold (gms) 61,948.0 34,008.0 82.16%
Stop Loss 31600 Target of 30800
Silver (kgs) 3,587.1 1,631.3 119.89%
MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) –
Crude (bbl) 29,255.3 24,276.2 20.51%
Source – MCX
Silver opened higher at 62049 and moved lower to touch an intra-
day low of 62027. However, it managed to move higher and
touched an intra-day high of 63430. But it failed to sustain higher
Turnover (In Lacs) and came off the highs for the day. It ended the day with large
gains to close at 62339.
06/09/2012 05/09/2012 % Chg.
The RSI has again moved above its average but is on verge of
Gold 1,960,451.7 1,070,789.6 83.08%
slipping below it again. The Stochastic is still below its average.
Silver 2,252,800.0 1,009,765.5 123.10% Moreover, both the Stochastic and the RSI are still placed in the
over bought zone. These negative technical conditions would lead
Crude 1,575,059.7 1,291,017.6 22.00% to selling pressure and profit taking. The ADX line and +DI line are
Source – MCX moving higher, indicating buyers are booking profits at higher
levels. MCX Silver faces resistance at 63000, 63750 and 64000
60883, 60963 and 61488 while the supports are placed at 61488,
Global Market (Nymex - $) 60963, 60883 and 59512 levels.
07/09/2012 06/09/2012 % Chg.
MCX CRUDE (19 SEPTEMBER 12) –
Gold (oz) 1,696.70 1,702.60 -0.35%
Crude opened higher at 5330 and moved lower to touch an intra-
Silver (oz) 32.03 32.62 -1.81% day low of 5322. However, it managed to move higher and touched
WTI Crude an intra-day high of 5438. It ended the day with modest gains to
94.87 95.53 -0.69% close at 5339.
(bbl)
Brent Crude
112.89 113.49 -0.53% The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
(bbl)
Dollar Index 81.10 81.04 0.14% averages, which would lead to selling pressure The ADX line, +DI
line and –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound
Source – www.cmegroup.com trend. It faces resistance at 5366, 5408, 5516 and 5600 while the
supports are placed at 5238, 5275, 5180, 5126 and 5093.
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
www.keynotecapitals.com

2. Commodity News:
• Gold prices may touch Rs 35,000 per 10 gram: Gold prices may be the party pooper this dhanteras - the
traditional buying season for thousands of Indian households - with several analysts betting that the yellow metal is
expected to touch Rs 35,000 per 10 gram. On Thursday, the precious metal gained Rs 320 to Rs 32,300 per 10
gram in the Delhi market and has gained Rs 1,555 in the last fortnight in the wake of continued uncertainty in
Europe. In Mumbai, gold climbed up by Rs 220 to end at Rs 31,700 per 10 gram from Wednesday's closing level of
Rs 31,480. (ET)
• Oil rises on Europe plan, US jobs data: The price of oil rose above $97 a barrel on Thursday after the European
Central Bank delivered new measures to help ease Europe's debt crisis. The ECB's move could also boost Europe's
struggling economy and boost demand for oil. Expectations for ECB action have been high since the bank's
president, Mario Draghi, said in July that the bank will do whatever it takes to save the euro currency. The price of oil
has risen more than 20 percent since late June. (ET)
• Oilseeds, soyoil futures edge lower following weak global markets: Oilseeds and soyoil futures edged lower on
Thursday following weak global markets, and as good rainfall in soybean and rapeseed growing areas bolstered
hopes of a bumper harvest. (ET)
• Sugar spurts on brisk demand, restricted supply: Sugar prices surged by Rs 60 per quintal in the national capital
today following restricted supply from mills amid strong demand from retailers and bulk consumers. Marketmen said
heavy buying by local parties and bulk consumers such as soft-drink and ice-cream making industries, sparked by
higher mills advices mainly pushed up sugar prices. (ET)
Economic Calendar:
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Sept 07 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12
Forex Reserves Data Industrial Output
India
data
Average Hourly NFIB Small Business FOMC Minutes
US
Earnings (YoY Optimism (AUG)
Nonfarms Payrolls; Preliminary ruling on
Unemployment Rate US Trade Balance ESM & Fiscal Deficit
Japan Coincident China Export Import Germany CPI data
Global
Index; Leading data
Economic Index UK’s Trade Balance
UK Industrial Japan Consumer UK Average Earnings,
Production (YoY & Confidence Claimant Count
MoM); Manufacturing charge
Production (YoY & Japan’s Manpower
MoM) Survey (4Q)
UK Producer Price UK Housing Price
Index - Input (YoY & Balance
MoM); Producer Price
Index - Output (YoY &
MoM)
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
www.keynotecapitals.com

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