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Daily Commodity Report

                                                                                                                21st August 2012

                                                               MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
                    Gold         Silver          Crude
                   (5 Oct-12)   (5 Sept-12)    (19 Sep-12)     Gold opened lower at 30158 and moved lower to touch an intra-
 Open                 30,158        53,646          5,378
                                                               day low of 30121. However, it managed to bounce back from lower
                                                               levels to touch an intra-day high of 30220. It ended the day with
 High                 30,220        54,405          5,388      marginal gains to close at 30184.
 Low                  30,121        53,520          5,328
                                                               The Stochastic has moved above its average. Moreover, the RSI
 Close                30,184        54,313          5,338      remains placed above its average. These positive technical
                                                               conditions would lead to buying support. The +DI line and ADX line
 Prev. Close          30,166        53,621          5,391      are moving higher indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX
 % Change              0.06%         1.29%         -0.98%      Gold faces resistance at 30340, 30428 and 31000, while the
                                                               support levels are placed at 30179, 29668, 28859, 28765 and
Source – MCX                                                   27962.
                                                               Positional Call – Buy MCX Gold (5 Oct 12) around 30184 level
                    Volume (In 000's)
                                                               with Stop Loss of 30100 and Target of 30340

                   20/08/2012   18/08/2012         % Chg.      MCX SILVER (5 SEPT 12) –

 Gold (gms)          12,359.0         891.0     1287.09%       Silver opened higher at 53646 but moved lower to touch an intra-
                                                               day low of 53520. However, it managed to bounce back from lower
 Silver (kgs)         1,116.4           25.5    4272.97%
                                                               levels to touch an intra-day high of 54405. It ended the day with
 Crude (bbl)         10,118.5       1,410.1      617.57%       moderate gains to close at 54313.
Source – MCX                                                   The Stochastic is placed above its average. Moreover, the RSI
                                                               remains placed above its average. These positive conditions would
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                          lead to buying support. The ADX line - and +DI line are moving
                                                               higher, indicating buyers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces
                   20/08/2012   18/08/2012         % Chg.      resistance at 54570, 55551, 56157 and 57737 while the supports
                                                               are placed at 53675, 51559, 51029, and 50252 levels.
Gold                372,949.8      26,871.7     1287.89%       Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Silver (5 Sept 12) Target of
Silver              602,660.7      13,691.2     4301.81%       54300 Achieved given on 17 August, 2012
Crude               541,956.6      75,707.8      615.85%       MCX CRUDE (19 September 12) –
Source – MCX                                                   Crude opened lower at 5378 but moved higher to touch an intra-
                                                               day high of 5388. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved
                Global Market (Nymex - $)                      lower to touch an intra-day low of 5328. It ended the day with
                                                               moderate losses to close at 5338.
                   21/08/2012   20/08/2012         % Chg.
                                                               The Stochastic has slipped below its average. However, the RSI
Gold (oz)            1,620.00      1,620.10        -0.01%      remains placed above its average but is on verge of slipping below
                                                               it. The RSI and Stochastic are also placed around the over bought
Silver (oz)             28.67         28.59         0.29%
                                                               zone, which would lead to selling pressure and profit taking. The
WTI Crude                                                      ADX line and –DI line are moving higher, while the +DI line has
                        95.90         95.97        -0.07%
(bbl)                                                          started moving lower, indicating buyers are booking profits at
Brent Crude
                      113.91        113.70          0.18%      higher levels. It faces resistance at 5366, 5516 and 5600 while the
(bbl)
                                                               supports are placed at 5238, 5275, 5180, 5093, 5126, 4946, 4777,
Dollar Index            82.41         82.46         0.14%      4737 and 4681.
Source – www.cmegroup.com                                      Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Crude (20 Aug 12) Target
                                                               of 5366 Achieved given Buy above 5310 level given on 17
                                                               August, 2012

                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Commodity News:

 •      Gold rise on speculation a weaker dollar spur demand: Gold today gained for the fourth session on speculation
        a weaker dollar will spur demand for the metal as an alternative investment. The dollar declined versus the euro
        amid optimism Europe's leaders meeting this week will signal support for Greece and outline fresh measures to
        combat the region's debt crisis. (ET)
 •      Platinum hits two-month high on supply worries, S Africa killing: Platinum prices rose to a two-month high on
        Monday, as supply worries due to a work stoppage after deadly violence at a South African mine triggered heavy
        buying. Spot platinum was up 1.5 per cent at $1,486.99 an ounce, having earlier set a high of $1,490.49 an ounce,
        which marked the loftiest price since June 18. (ET)
 •      Pulses prices likely to go up around Diwali: Poor rainfall and weak distribution system may lead to further rise in
        prices of pulses around Diwali (early November) this year, a study by industry body Assocham has said. Releasing
        the study here today, Assocham Secretary General DS Rawat said Gram (desi chana) in particular could shoot up
        benefiting the middlemen the most. According to the study, there is a marginal surplus in availability which is due to
        demand compression and floating stocks. As the prices soften, demand will catch up and the surplus will be offset, it
        added. (ET)
 •      Tough to curb rubber futures volatility: The expert committee to study rubber futures trading is yet to arrive at a
        consensus after many meetings during the past three months. The panel says that it will be difficult to restrict
        volatility to 1% or 2% from the current 4% and to ensure total transparency regarding buyers, which were the two
        key points raised by the critics of futures trade. However, the panel may suggest ways to increase the physical
        delivery. (ET)



 Economic Calendar:

                             Tuesday                 Wednesday                   Thursday                   Friday
                              Aug 21                  Aug 22                      Aug 23                    Aug 24
India                                               M3 Money Supply                                  Forex Reserves Data

                                                                                                       Bank Loan Growth



US                                               Existing Home Sales      Continuing and Initial          Durable Goods
                                                           (MoM) (Jul)          Jobless Claims           Orders; Durable
                                                                                                         Goods Orders ex
                                                                                                          Transportation
                                                 EIA Crude Oil Stocks       Housing Price Index
                                                              change               (MoM) (Jun)


Global                 UK Public Sector Net     EUR Current Account        EUR Gross Domestic        UK GDP (YoY & MoM)
                                 Borrowing            Balance (Jun)         Product n.s.a (YoY)
                                                                                           (Q2)
                        Japan Exports (YoY)                                        EUR Markit
                                                                            Manufacturing PMI
                                                                                          (Aug)
                      EUR 12-Month Letras
                                 Auction




                                                     Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to
be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be
illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into
account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the
use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and
value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain
transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s
fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable
basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change
without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations expressed herein.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell
the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn
brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as
advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related
information and opinions.
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject
company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent.


                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report for 210812

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report 21st August 2012 MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) – Gold Silver Crude (5 Oct-12) (5 Sept-12) (19 Sep-12) Gold opened lower at 30158 and moved lower to touch an intra- Open 30,158 53,646 5,378 day low of 30121. However, it managed to bounce back from lower levels to touch an intra-day high of 30220. It ended the day with High 30,220 54,405 5,388 marginal gains to close at 30184. Low 30,121 53,520 5,328 The Stochastic has moved above its average. Moreover, the RSI Close 30,184 54,313 5,338 remains placed above its average. These positive technical conditions would lead to buying support. The +DI line and ADX line Prev. Close 30,166 53,621 5,391 are moving higher indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX % Change 0.06% 1.29% -0.98% Gold faces resistance at 30340, 30428 and 31000, while the support levels are placed at 30179, 29668, 28859, 28765 and Source – MCX 27962. Positional Call – Buy MCX Gold (5 Oct 12) around 30184 level Volume (In 000's) with Stop Loss of 30100 and Target of 30340 20/08/2012 18/08/2012 % Chg. MCX SILVER (5 SEPT 12) – Gold (gms) 12,359.0 891.0 1287.09% Silver opened higher at 53646 but moved lower to touch an intra- day low of 53520. However, it managed to bounce back from lower Silver (kgs) 1,116.4 25.5 4272.97% levels to touch an intra-day high of 54405. It ended the day with Crude (bbl) 10,118.5 1,410.1 617.57% moderate gains to close at 54313. Source – MCX The Stochastic is placed above its average. Moreover, the RSI remains placed above its average. These positive conditions would Turnover (In Lacs) lead to buying support. The ADX line - and +DI line are moving higher, indicating buyers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces 20/08/2012 18/08/2012 % Chg. resistance at 54570, 55551, 56157 and 57737 while the supports are placed at 53675, 51559, 51029, and 50252 levels. Gold 372,949.8 26,871.7 1287.89% Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Silver (5 Sept 12) Target of Silver 602,660.7 13,691.2 4301.81% 54300 Achieved given on 17 August, 2012 Crude 541,956.6 75,707.8 615.85% MCX CRUDE (19 September 12) – Source – MCX Crude opened lower at 5378 but moved higher to touch an intra- day high of 5388. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved Global Market (Nymex - $) lower to touch an intra-day low of 5328. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 5338. 21/08/2012 20/08/2012 % Chg. The Stochastic has slipped below its average. However, the RSI Gold (oz) 1,620.00 1,620.10 -0.01% remains placed above its average but is on verge of slipping below it. The RSI and Stochastic are also placed around the over bought Silver (oz) 28.67 28.59 0.29% zone, which would lead to selling pressure and profit taking. The WTI Crude ADX line and –DI line are moving higher, while the +DI line has 95.90 95.97 -0.07% (bbl) started moving lower, indicating buyers are booking profits at Brent Crude 113.91 113.70 0.18% higher levels. It faces resistance at 5366, 5516 and 5600 while the (bbl) supports are placed at 5238, 5275, 5180, 5093, 5126, 4946, 4777, Dollar Index 82.41 82.46 0.14% 4737 and 4681. Source – www.cmegroup.com Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Crude (20 Aug 12) Target of 5366 Achieved given Buy above 5310 level given on 17 August, 2012 Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Commodity News: • Gold rise on speculation a weaker dollar spur demand: Gold today gained for the fourth session on speculation a weaker dollar will spur demand for the metal as an alternative investment. The dollar declined versus the euro amid optimism Europe's leaders meeting this week will signal support for Greece and outline fresh measures to combat the region's debt crisis. (ET) • Platinum hits two-month high on supply worries, S Africa killing: Platinum prices rose to a two-month high on Monday, as supply worries due to a work stoppage after deadly violence at a South African mine triggered heavy buying. Spot platinum was up 1.5 per cent at $1,486.99 an ounce, having earlier set a high of $1,490.49 an ounce, which marked the loftiest price since June 18. (ET) • Pulses prices likely to go up around Diwali: Poor rainfall and weak distribution system may lead to further rise in prices of pulses around Diwali (early November) this year, a study by industry body Assocham has said. Releasing the study here today, Assocham Secretary General DS Rawat said Gram (desi chana) in particular could shoot up benefiting the middlemen the most. According to the study, there is a marginal surplus in availability which is due to demand compression and floating stocks. As the prices soften, demand will catch up and the surplus will be offset, it added. (ET) • Tough to curb rubber futures volatility: The expert committee to study rubber futures trading is yet to arrive at a consensus after many meetings during the past three months. The panel says that it will be difficult to restrict volatility to 1% or 2% from the current 4% and to ensure total transparency regarding buyers, which were the two key points raised by the critics of futures trade. However, the panel may suggest ways to increase the physical delivery. (ET) Economic Calendar: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 India M3 Money Supply Forex Reserves Data Bank Loan Growth US Existing Home Sales Continuing and Initial Durable Goods (MoM) (Jul) Jobless Claims Orders; Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation EIA Crude Oil Stocks Housing Price Index change (MoM) (Jun) Global UK Public Sector Net EUR Current Account EUR Gross Domestic UK GDP (YoY & MoM) Borrowing Balance (Jun) Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2) Japan Exports (YoY) EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug) EUR 12-Month Letras Auction Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
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