Gold, silver, and crude oil futures prices from the MCX exchange on October 4th are reported. Gold opened higher but ended the day lower. Silver also opened higher but closed modestly lower. Crude oil opened lower but closed with moderate gains. Technical indicators for all three commodities suggest selling pressure, though crude oil and silver are in oversold zones, which may lead to short-covering. Resistance and support price levels are provided. Global commodity prices and economic news and events from India, the US, and globally are also summarized.

1. Daily Commodity Report
5th October 2012
MCX GOLD (5 DECEMBER 12) –
Gold Silver Crude
(5 Dec-12) (5 Dec-12) (19 Oct-12) Gold opened higher at 31288 but moved higher to touch an intra-
Open 31,288 62,344 4,632 day high of 31308. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved
lower to touch an intra-day low of 31063. It ended the day with
High 31,308 62,660 4,737
moderate losses to close at 31087.
Low 31,063 61,891 4,603
The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below their respective
Close 31,087 62,105 4,721 averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
Prev. Close 31,312 62,318 4,645 Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
short covering at lower levels. The ADX line and -DI line are
% Change -0.72% -0.34% 1.64%
moving higher and are placed above the 30 level, indicating sellers
Source – MCX have an upper hand. MCX Gold faces resistance at 31467, 31937,
32100, 32393 and 32421 while the support levels are placed at
Volume (In 000's) 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179, 29668 and 28859.
04/10/2012 03/10/2012 % Chg.
MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) –
Gold (gms) 35,621.0 29,393.0 21.19%
Silver opened higher at 62344 moved further higher to touch an
Silver (kgs) 1,707.5 1,512.5 12.89% intra-day high of 62660. However, it failed to sustain higher and
Crude (bbl) 26,994.9 33,019.4 -18.25% moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 61891. It ended the day
with modest losses to close at 62105.
Source – MCX
The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below their respective
Turnover (In Lacs) averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
04/10/2012 03/10/2012 % Chg.
short covering at lower levels. The ADX line and -DI line are
Gold 1,111,316.5 921,408.2 20.61% moving higher, indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCX Silver
faces resistance at 62273, 64600, 65723 and 66000 while the
Silver 1,063,262.0 946,141.2 12.38% supports are placed at 61912, 61398, 60750 and 59512 levels.
Crude 1,254,228.7 1,562,744.6 -19.74%
MCX CRUDE (19 OCTOBER 12) –
Source – MCX
Crude opened lower at 4632. It moved further lower to touch an
Global Market (Nymex - $) intra-day low of 4603. However, it managed to bounce back from
lower levels to touch an intra-day high of 4737. It ended the day
05/10/2012 04/10/2012 % Chg. with moderate gains to close at 4721.
Gold (oz) 1,796.80 1,796.50 0.02%
The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
Silver (oz) 35.12 35.10 0.04% averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the RSI
WTI Crude 91.46 91.71 -0.27% and the Stochastic are placed in the over sold zone, which would
lead to regular bouts of shot covering. Though the ADX line is
Brent Crude 112.17 112.58 -0.36%
moving higher the -DI line has moved lower, indicating sellers have
Dollar Index 79.33 79.35 -0.03% started covering their shorts at lower levels. It faces resistance at
Source – www.cmegroup.com 4760, 4892, 4950 and 5050 while the supports are placed at 4692,
4603, 4578 and 4467
NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing
Basis
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2. Commodity News:
Brent slips towards $112 ahead of US jobs data
Brent futures slipped towards $112 per barrel on Friday, but is on course to end a choppy week nearly flat as rising
tensions in the Middle East battled with perennial worries about the global economy and oil demand. Strains in the
Middle East escalated this week after Turkey stepped up its strikes against Syria and won parliament approval for
further military action, pushing Brent prices up 4 percent on Thursday. That ended a three-day slide for the crude
benchmark when a spate of weak data earlier in the week reinforced concerns that the fragile global economic
recovery is still under threat with a turnaround in China expected to be delayed and the euro zone heading almost
certainly into recession.
Gold jumps on signs of demand in India and weaker dollar
Gold jumped on signs of more demand in India, the biggest buyer for the coming festival and marriage season and a
weakening dollar. The precious metal climbed 0.5 per cent to USD 1,786.22 an ounce and silver by 1.1 per cent to
USD 34.96 an ounce on expectations the demand from India might pick up for approaching festivals like 'Navratras'
and marriage season.
Economic Calendar:
Countries / Friday Monday Tuesday
Regions 05/Oct 08/Oct 09/Oct
India FX Reserves, USD (Sep 30)
Consumer Credit Change IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
US
(Aug) (MoM) (Oct)
NFIB Business Optimism
FOMC Member Duke Speech
Index (Sep)
Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Japan- BoJ Interest Rate HSBC China Services PMI GBP Trade Balance; non-EU
Global
Decision (Sep) (Aug)
Germany Current Account Greece Consumer Price
n.s.a. (Aug) Index (YoY) (Sep)
EUR Sentix Investor Japan Bank of Japan Monthly
Confidence (Oct) Economic Survey
GBP BRC Retail Sales
Monitor - All (YoY) (Sep)
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www.keynotecapitals.com

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