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Daily Commodity Report

                                                                                                            3rd October 2012
                                                             MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
                    Gold         Silver         Crude
                   (5 Oct-12)   (5 Dec-12)     (19 Oct-12)   Gold opened lower at 31155 and moved further lower to touch an
 Open                 31,155        62,642          4,884    intra-day low of 30975. However, it managed to bounce back and
                                                             moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 31250 but failed to
 High                 31,250        64,999          4,909
                                                             sustain higher. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at
 Low                  30,975        62,203          4,841    31033.
 Close                31,033        62,934          4,860    The Stochastic has again slipped below its average. Moreover, the
 Prev. Close          31,201        62,780          4,887    RSI is already placed below its average. Both these negative
                                                             technical conditions which would lead to selling pressure. However,
 % Change             -0.54%        0.25%          -0.55%
                                                             the Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
Source – MCX                                                 regular bouts of shot covering. The ADX line, -DI line and +DI line
                                                             are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX Gold
                    Volume (In 000's)                        faces resistance at 31467, 31937, 32100, 32393 and 32421 while
                                                             the support levels are placed at 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179,
                   01/10/2012   29/09/2012        % Chg.
                                                             29668 and 28859.
 Gold (gms)           7,321.0      4,853.0        50.86%
                                                             MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) –
 Silver (kgs)         2,733.3           37.5    7194.56%

 Crude (bbl)         21,806.4        610.0      3474.82%     Silver opened lower at 62642 and moved further lower to touch an
                                                             intra-day low of 62203. However, it managed to bounce back and
Source – MCX                                                 moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 64999 but came off the
                                                             highs for the day. It ended the day with modest gains to close at
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                        62934.
                   01/10/2012   29/09/2012        % Chg.
                                                             The Stochastic has again slipped below its average. Moreover, the
Gold                227,659.8    151,410.4        50.36%     RSI is already placed below its average. Both these negative
                                                             technical conditions which would lead to selling pressure. The ADX
Silver            1,719,752.8     23,521.9      7211.29%     line and the +DI line are moving higher and are placed above the
Crude             1,061,590.9     29,811.8      3460.97%     30 level, indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX Silver faces
                                                             resistance at 64600, 65723 and 66000 while the supports are
Source – MCX                                                 placed at 62273, 61912, 61398, 60750 and 59512 levels.
                Global Market (Nymex - $)                    MCX CRUDE (19 OCTOBER 12) –
                   03/10/2012   02/10/2012        % Chg.     Crude opened higher at 4884 but moved lower to touch an intra-
Gold (oz)            1,774.50     1,775.60         -0.06%    day low of 4841. However, it managed to bounce back and moved
                                                             higher to touch an intra-day high of 4909 but failed to sustain
Silver (oz)             34.62        34.67         -0.16%    higher. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 4860.
WTI (bbl)               91.62        91.89         -0.29%
                                                             The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to selling
Brent (bbl)           111.07        111.57         -0.45%    pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average
Dollar Index            79.83        79.75          0.10%    Moreover, both the RSI is placed around the over sold zone, which
Source – www.cmegroup.com
                                                             would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering and buying
                                                             support at lower levels. The ADX line and the -DI line are moving
                                                             higher and are placed above the 34 level, indicating buyers have
                                                             an upper hand. It faces resistance at 4892, 4950, 5050 and 5180
                                                             while the supports are placed at 4760, 4692 and 4578.

                                                             NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing
                                                             Basis


                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                  www.keynotecapitals.com
Commodity News:
Gold inches up as more central bank action eyed
Gold inched up on Tuesday, crawling back towards an 11-month high hit in the previous session, supported by a
slightly weaker dollar and investor hopes for further central bankBSE 0.69 % action to battle the grim outlook for global
economic growth. Spot gold marked an 11-month peak of $1,791.20 on Monday as an unexpected expansion in US
factory activity and more clarity on Spain's bailout plan sent some relief through the market, knocking the dollar index
from a three-week high.
Rubber prices bounce back due to a fall in supply
Rubber jumped to a four-month high, erasing this year's losses, because of a fall in the supply of the commodity after
the world's largest producers began cutting exports by the most since 2009. Rubber for March delivery advanced as
much as 4.6% to 272.5 yen a kilogram ($3,490 a tonne), the highest level since May 30, before trading at 270.5 yen on
the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The most-active contract has gained 2.7% this year.
Chilli futures decline 1.11% on higher output estimate
Chilli prices declined by Rs 60 to Rs 5,336 per quintal in futures trade today as reduced their positions, triggered by a
higher output estimated in the current year. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chilli for delivery in
October declined by Rs 60, or 1.11%, to Rs 5,336 per quintal, with an open interest of 7,630 lots.


Economic Calendar:

Countries /              Wednesday                              Thursday                               Friday

 Regions                   03/Oct                                04/Oct                               05/Oct

                   INR      M3 Money Supply
   India                                                                                    FX Reserves, USD (Sep 30)
                                   (Sep 30)




                                                                                              Consumer Credit Change
    US           MBA Mortgage Applications          Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Sep)
                                                                                                                (Aug)

                 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
                                                      Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 29)     FOMC Member Duke Speech
                                     (Sep)

                                                                                             Unemployment Rate (Sep)

                 GBP      Markit Services PMI           CHF     Industrial Production           Japan- BoJ Interest Rate
  Global
                                        (Sep)                              (QoQ) (Q2)                           Decision

                  EUR      Retail Sales (MoM)
                                                         Spain, France Bond Auction
                                         (Aug)
                                                          BoE Interest Rate Decision




                                                  Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com
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to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation
would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or
take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the
use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price
and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.
Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve
substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report for 031012

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report 3rd October 2012 MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) – Gold Silver Crude (5 Oct-12) (5 Dec-12) (19 Oct-12) Gold opened lower at 31155 and moved further lower to touch an Open 31,155 62,642 4,884 intra-day low of 30975. However, it managed to bounce back and moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 31250 but failed to High 31,250 64,999 4,909 sustain higher. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at Low 30,975 62,203 4,841 31033. Close 31,033 62,934 4,860 The Stochastic has again slipped below its average. Moreover, the Prev. Close 31,201 62,780 4,887 RSI is already placed below its average. Both these negative technical conditions which would lead to selling pressure. However, % Change -0.54% 0.25% -0.55% the Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to Source – MCX regular bouts of shot covering. The ADX line, -DI line and +DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX Gold Volume (In 000's) faces resistance at 31467, 31937, 32100, 32393 and 32421 while the support levels are placed at 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179, 01/10/2012 29/09/2012 % Chg. 29668 and 28859. Gold (gms) 7,321.0 4,853.0 50.86% MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) – Silver (kgs) 2,733.3 37.5 7194.56% Crude (bbl) 21,806.4 610.0 3474.82% Silver opened lower at 62642 and moved further lower to touch an intra-day low of 62203. However, it managed to bounce back and Source – MCX moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 64999 but came off the highs for the day. It ended the day with modest gains to close at Turnover (In Lacs) 62934. 01/10/2012 29/09/2012 % Chg. The Stochastic has again slipped below its average. Moreover, the Gold 227,659.8 151,410.4 50.36% RSI is already placed below its average. Both these negative technical conditions which would lead to selling pressure. The ADX Silver 1,719,752.8 23,521.9 7211.29% line and the +DI line are moving higher and are placed above the Crude 1,061,590.9 29,811.8 3460.97% 30 level, indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 64600, 65723 and 66000 while the supports are Source – MCX placed at 62273, 61912, 61398, 60750 and 59512 levels. Global Market (Nymex - $) MCX CRUDE (19 OCTOBER 12) – 03/10/2012 02/10/2012 % Chg. Crude opened higher at 4884 but moved lower to touch an intra- Gold (oz) 1,774.50 1,775.60 -0.06% day low of 4841. However, it managed to bounce back and moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 4909 but failed to sustain Silver (oz) 34.62 34.67 -0.16% higher. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 4860. WTI (bbl) 91.62 91.89 -0.29% The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to selling Brent (bbl) 111.07 111.57 -0.45% pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average Dollar Index 79.83 79.75 0.10% Moreover, both the RSI is placed around the over sold zone, which Source – www.cmegroup.com would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering and buying support at lower levels. The ADX line and the -DI line are moving higher and are placed above the 34 level, indicating buyers have an upper hand. It faces resistance at 4892, 4950, 5050 and 5180 while the supports are placed at 4760, 4692 and 4578. NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing Basis Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Commodity News: Gold inches up as more central bank action eyed Gold inched up on Tuesday, crawling back towards an 11-month high hit in the previous session, supported by a slightly weaker dollar and investor hopes for further central bankBSE 0.69 % action to battle the grim outlook for global economic growth. Spot gold marked an 11-month peak of $1,791.20 on Monday as an unexpected expansion in US factory activity and more clarity on Spain's bailout plan sent some relief through the market, knocking the dollar index from a three-week high. Rubber prices bounce back due to a fall in supply Rubber jumped to a four-month high, erasing this year's losses, because of a fall in the supply of the commodity after the world's largest producers began cutting exports by the most since 2009. Rubber for March delivery advanced as much as 4.6% to 272.5 yen a kilogram ($3,490 a tonne), the highest level since May 30, before trading at 270.5 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The most-active contract has gained 2.7% this year. Chilli futures decline 1.11% on higher output estimate Chilli prices declined by Rs 60 to Rs 5,336 per quintal in futures trade today as reduced their positions, triggered by a higher output estimated in the current year. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chilli for delivery in October declined by Rs 60, or 1.11%, to Rs 5,336 per quintal, with an open interest of 7,630 lots. Economic Calendar: Countries / Wednesday Thursday Friday Regions 03/Oct 04/Oct 05/Oct INR M3 Money Supply India FX Reserves, USD (Sep 30) (Sep 30) Consumer Credit Change US MBA Mortgage Applications Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Sep) (Aug) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 29) FOMC Member Duke Speech (Sep) Unemployment Rate (Sep) GBP Markit Services PMI CHF Industrial Production Japan- BoJ Interest Rate Global (Sep) (QoQ) (Q2) Decision EUR Retail Sales (MoM) Spain, France Bond Auction (Aug) BoE Interest Rate Decision Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com