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PRECIOUS METALS,
DIAMONDS & GEMSTONES
INVESTMENT SUMMIT
         The platinum jewellery market in China
         Rupen Raithatha – Investment & Economic Analyst, Johnson Matthey




IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● WEDNESDAY, 6 APR 2011
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
A Look at the Pt Jewellery
Market in China
Rupen Raithatha, 6th April 2011




                                  Market Research
Market Research


Agenda slide

1   Overview of the Pt Market

2   Snapshot of the Global Pt Jewellery Market

3   The Importance of Jewellery Demand

4   The Chinese Market

5   Market Potential
Market Research


               Platinum Demand & Supply
                         7000                                                                  7000

                                                                                                                               •   Market has grown
                         6000                                                                  6000
                                                                                                                                   over time
                         5000                                                                  5000
Demand/Supply (000 oz)




                                                                                                      Demand/Supply (000 oz)
                         4000                                                                  4000                            •   ….but always a
                                                                                                                                   fairly tight market
                         3000                                                                  3000


                         2000                                                                  2000                            •   Jewellery and
                         1000                                                                  1000
                                                                                                                                   Investment
                                                                                                                                   expected to be
                           0                                                                  0                                    more price elastic
                           1975      1980     1985       1990     1995   2000     2005     2010

                            Autocat Net     Chemical       Electrical    Glass           Petroleum
                            Other           Investment     Jewellery     Supply
Market Research


                 The Rise of China
                            2,200
                            2,000
                                                                                                 •   Japan for so long the
                            1,800                                                                    largest jewellery
Jewellery Demand (000 oz)




                            1,600                                                                    market
                            1,400
                            1,200
                            1,000                                                                •   Eclipsed by China
                              800                                                                    since the early 2000’s
                              600
                              400
                              200
                                0
                                    1975   1980   1985    1990     1995    2000    2005   2010

                                                  Japan China Europe + N America
Market Research
           Autocatalyst & Jewellery as % of
           Total Demand
                    60%
                                                                                          •   Jewellery tends to
                    50%                                                                       offset softer autocat
% of Total Demand




                                                                                              demand
                    40%

                    30%                                                                   •   Plays a crucial role
                                                                                              in the market
                    20%

                    10%

                    0%
                          1975   1980   1985    1990     1995        2000   2005   2010

                                               Autocat   Jewellery
Market Research


            Jewellery as % of Total Demand Vs Price
                    60%                                                                            1800
                                                                                                                         •   As expected,
                    50%                                                                            1500                      jewellery is
% of Total Demand




                                                                                                                             responsive to price
                    40%                                                                            1200




                                                                                                          Price ($/oz)
                    30%                                                                            900

                    20%                                                                            600

                    10%                                                                            300

                    0%                                                                             0
                          1975   1980    1985      1990    1995        2000       2005      2010

                                   Autocat (lhs)     Jewellery (lhs)          Price (rhs)
Market Research
China Jewellery Demand 1995-2010
                 12,000
                                                                            • Counter-intuitive
                 10,000                                                       demand function
Price (RMB/oz)




                                                                               • Income effect
                  8,000
                                                                               • Lack of market
                  6,000                                                          maturity
                                                                               • Consumer surplus
                  4,000

                  2,000                                                     • However, since
                          0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000     2002…..
                                           Demand (000 oz)
Market Research
China Jewellery Demand 2002-2010
                 12,000
                          2008

                 11,000
                                                                         2010
                                                                                                • Signs of a mature
                 10,000       2007                                                                market or is the
Price (RMB/oz)




                  9,000          2006                                                             price effect
                  8,000                                                                 2009      outweighing the
                  7,000
                                     2005
                                                2004
                                                                                                  income effect
                  6,000                                                                           since 2002?
                                                2003

                  5,000
                                                               2002

                  4,000
                      1,000             1,200          1,400          1,600     1,800   2,000
                                                           Demand (000 oz)
Market Research
Weekly Pt Purchasing on the
Shanghai Gold Exchange (2010-March 2011)
                1500                      2,150

                                                                     •   SGE users are good
                1250                      2,050
                                                                         at buying into price
                1000                      1,950
                                                                         dips




                                                  SGE Price ($/oz)
  Volume (kg)




                750                       1,850


                500                       1,750


                250                       1,650


                  0                       1,550
                  10




                                     11
                20




                                   20




                       Volume   Price
Market Research


Current and Historic Pt Market Penetration
                                2                                                 16                                         •   Japan mid-90’s peak
                                                                                                                                 several times greater
                             1.75                                                 14




                                                                                         Consumption oz/000 capita (Japan)
                                                                                                                                 than any other market
                              1.5                                                 12
Consumption oz/000 capita
(Europe/N America/China)




                             1.25                                                 10                                         •   ….but China has
                                1                                                 8                                              potential to grow….
                             0.75                                                 6

                              0.5                                                 4

                             0.25                                                 2

                                0                                       0
                                 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

                            Europe (lhs)   N America (lhs)   China (lhs)   Japan (rhs)
Market Research


Some Caveats
•   Japan unique circumstances – the ‘perfect storm’
     •   Restrictions on buying/selling Au until mid-70s
     •   Pt price close to Au price
     •   Relatively low Pt price in absolute terms
     •   ‘Bubble’ economy
     •   Strength of the ¥
     •   Relatively high Pt content per piece
     •   Successful marketing
     •   Unlikely that per capita consumption in China will come close to Japan’s peak


•   Has Pt price volatility damaged perception of Pt as a store of
    wealth?
•   Strong competition from non-jewellery luxury sector
Pt:Au Ratio
              Jan
                  -




                        0
                            0.5
                                   1
                                        1.5
                                                2
                                                           2.5
              Jan 75
                  -
              Jan 77
                  -
              Jan 79
                  -
              Jan 81
                  -
              Jan 83
                  -
              Jan 85
                  -
              Jan 87
                  -
              Jan 89
                  -
              Jan 91
                  -
              Jan 93
                                                                       Pt:Au Price Ratio




                  -




Pt:Au Ratio
              Jan 95
                  -
              Jan 97
                  -




Parity
              Jan 99
                  -
              Jan 01
                  -
              Jan 03
                  -
              Jan 05
                  -
              Jan 07
                  -
              Jan 09
                  -11
                                                              •

                                                equal.
                                                                                           Market Research




                                                Japan’s peak came
                                                when Pt and Au about
Market Research
Nevertheless, potential for further
growth remains strong….
• China in 2011 is on an earlier point on the growth path than
  Japan in mid-90s
• Efforts to increase domestic consumption as a proportion of
  GDP
• High savings ratio
• Rate of urbanisation
• Marketing to 2nd and 3rd tier cities
• Stronger RMB over time will soften any rise in the US$ price
• Size of population
• Chinese demand has come when Pt price > Au – seen as the
  primary metal by many
A Look at the Pt Jewellery
Market in China
Rupen Raithatha, 6th April 2011

Rupen.Raithatha@matthey.com
+44 (0)1763 25 63 22
                                  Market Research

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The platinum jewellery in China

  • 1. PRECIOUS METALS, DIAMONDS & GEMSTONES INVESTMENT SUMMIT The platinum jewellery market in China Rupen Raithatha – Investment & Economic Analyst, Johnson Matthey IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● WEDNESDAY, 6 APR 2011 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
  • 2. A Look at the Pt Jewellery Market in China Rupen Raithatha, 6th April 2011 Market Research
  • 3. Market Research Agenda slide 1 Overview of the Pt Market 2 Snapshot of the Global Pt Jewellery Market 3 The Importance of Jewellery Demand 4 The Chinese Market 5 Market Potential
  • 4. Market Research Platinum Demand & Supply 7000 7000 • Market has grown 6000 6000 over time 5000 5000 Demand/Supply (000 oz) Demand/Supply (000 oz) 4000 4000 • ….but always a fairly tight market 3000 3000 2000 2000 • Jewellery and 1000 1000 Investment expected to be 0 0 more price elastic 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Autocat Net Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Other Investment Jewellery Supply
  • 5. Market Research The Rise of China 2,200 2,000 • Japan for so long the 1,800 largest jewellery Jewellery Demand (000 oz) 1,600 market 1,400 1,200 1,000 • Eclipsed by China 800 since the early 2000’s 600 400 200 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Japan China Europe + N America
  • 6. Market Research Autocatalyst & Jewellery as % of Total Demand 60% • Jewellery tends to 50% offset softer autocat % of Total Demand demand 40% 30% • Plays a crucial role in the market 20% 10% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Autocat Jewellery
  • 7. Market Research Jewellery as % of Total Demand Vs Price 60% 1800 • As expected, 50% 1500 jewellery is % of Total Demand responsive to price 40% 1200 Price ($/oz) 30% 900 20% 600 10% 300 0% 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Autocat (lhs) Jewellery (lhs) Price (rhs)
  • 8. Market Research China Jewellery Demand 1995-2010 12,000 • Counter-intuitive 10,000 demand function Price (RMB/oz) • Income effect 8,000 • Lack of market 6,000 maturity • Consumer surplus 4,000 2,000 • However, since 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2002….. Demand (000 oz)
  • 9. Market Research China Jewellery Demand 2002-2010 12,000 2008 11,000 2010 • Signs of a mature 10,000 2007 market or is the Price (RMB/oz) 9,000 2006 price effect 8,000 2009 outweighing the 7,000 2005 2004 income effect 6,000 since 2002? 2003 5,000 2002 4,000 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Demand (000 oz)
  • 10. Market Research Weekly Pt Purchasing on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (2010-March 2011) 1500 2,150 • SGE users are good 1250 2,050 at buying into price 1000 1,950 dips SGE Price ($/oz) Volume (kg) 750 1,850 500 1,750 250 1,650 0 1,550 10 11 20 20 Volume Price
  • 11. Market Research Current and Historic Pt Market Penetration 2 16 • Japan mid-90’s peak several times greater 1.75 14 Consumption oz/000 capita (Japan) than any other market 1.5 12 Consumption oz/000 capita (Europe/N America/China) 1.25 10 • ….but China has 1 8 potential to grow…. 0.75 6 0.5 4 0.25 2 0 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Europe (lhs) N America (lhs) China (lhs) Japan (rhs)
  • 12. Market Research Some Caveats • Japan unique circumstances – the ‘perfect storm’ • Restrictions on buying/selling Au until mid-70s • Pt price close to Au price • Relatively low Pt price in absolute terms • ‘Bubble’ economy • Strength of the ¥ • Relatively high Pt content per piece • Successful marketing • Unlikely that per capita consumption in China will come close to Japan’s peak • Has Pt price volatility damaged perception of Pt as a store of wealth? • Strong competition from non-jewellery luxury sector
  • 13. Pt:Au Ratio Jan - 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Jan 75 - Jan 77 - Jan 79 - Jan 81 - Jan 83 - Jan 85 - Jan 87 - Jan 89 - Jan 91 - Jan 93 Pt:Au Price Ratio - Pt:Au Ratio Jan 95 - Jan 97 - Parity Jan 99 - Jan 01 - Jan 03 - Jan 05 - Jan 07 - Jan 09 -11 • equal. Market Research Japan’s peak came when Pt and Au about
  • 14. Market Research Nevertheless, potential for further growth remains strong…. • China in 2011 is on an earlier point on the growth path than Japan in mid-90s • Efforts to increase domestic consumption as a proportion of GDP • High savings ratio • Rate of urbanisation • Marketing to 2nd and 3rd tier cities • Stronger RMB over time will soften any rise in the US$ price • Size of population • Chinese demand has come when Pt price > Au – seen as the primary metal by many
  • 15. A Look at the Pt Jewellery Market in China Rupen Raithatha, 6th April 2011 Rupen.Raithatha@matthey.com +44 (0)1763 25 63 22 Market Research