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The Death of
Newspapers?




      Finding business models
            in a perfect storm
Who am I?
Long, slow death?
                                       UK National Newspaper Monthly Circulation
                                                      2001 - 2008

                    4,000,000


                    3,500,000

                                                                                          The Sun
                    3,000,000
                                                                                          The Mirror
                                                                                          Daily Star
                    2,500,000
  No. copies sold




                                                                                          Daily Record
                                                                                          Daily Mail
                    2,000,000                                                             The Express
                                                                                          Daily Telegraph
                    1,500,000                                                             The Times
                                                                                          FT
                    1,000,000                                                             The Guardian
                                                                                          The Independent

                     500,000


                           0
                                2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
                                                        Year

                                                                     Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
Why?

• Cyclical

• Structural
Cyclical
Recession hits early and hard:

• More media firms have issued profit warnings in the
  last six months than since the 2001 dot com crash.
  (Ernst & Young)

• Over the 19 weeks to 9 May 2009, Johnston Press
  saw total advertising revenues down 34.4% year on
  year.

• In May, Trinity Mirror said that group advertising
  revenue declined by 30% year on year
Structural
Demand is declining:

• Disruptive free-sheet business models.

• Lifestyle changes.

• New platforms diluting market share.



    Newspaper organisations
 evolved to deliver on news print.
Industry response?
• Offline model moved online.

• Product-focused, not demand-focused.

• Little innovation.

• Slow to react to change.

• Online competition ignored.

• Stalled with protectionist arguments.
The result?
• Flooded market

• Web advertising devalued
  (About one-tenth of print advertising)

• Traditional print revenues disrupted
  (Classifieds, business directories, dating, coupons)


• Control of product distribution lost
Users
                                                                                                      (‘000s)
                                                                                                      Unique




                                                0
                                                    500
                                                          1,000
                                                                  1,500
                                                                                       2,000
                                                                                                              2,500
                                                                                                                               3,000
                                                                                                                                       3,500
                                                                                                                                               4,000
                                                                                                                                                       4,500
                                                                                                                                                               5,000
                                       Oct-03
                                       Dec-03
                                       Feb-04
                                       Apr-04
                                       Jun-04
                                       Aug-04
                                       Oct-04
                                       Dec-04
                                       Feb-05
                                       Apr-05
                                       Jun-05
                                       Aug-05
                                       Oct-05
                                       Dec-05
                                       Feb-06
                                       Apr-06
                                       Jun-06
                                       Aug-06
                                       Oct-06
                                       Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                       The Stat Race




                                       Feb-07
                                       Apr-07
                                       Jun-07
                                       Aug-07
                                       Oct-07
                                       Dec-07
                                       Feb-08
                                       Apr-08
                                       Jun-08
                                       Aug-08
                                       Oct-08
                                       Dec-08
                                       Feb-09
                                       Apr-09
                                                                                     Telegraph
                                                                                                 MailOnline


                                                                      Times Online
                                                                                                              Guardian.co.uk




Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
The Stat Race: results
It can not continue


               “The current days
               of the internet will
                 soon be over."
But some got it right
But some got it right
Schibsted:
                              Aftonbladet Profit (EBITA)

                 300


                 250


                 200
 SEK (million)




                                                                  Online EBITA
                 150
                                                                  Print EBITA

                 100


                 50


                 -
                       2005   2006          2007           2008
                                     Year
Dating



                                     Dieting & Fitness
Used Cars                                  Club




                                          Yellow & White
 Classifieds                                 Directory

               Telephone Directory

                                     = 60+%
Wall Street Journal

                                 Ten-year-old
                                 subscription
                                   service




• Reputation for business news

• Responsive pay wall
Where did it go wrong?




           Trough of
        disillusionment
Group Exercise
• Where did the industry go wrong?

• How can you use these lessons to avoid similar
  mistakes?

   – What cyclical and structural issues do you face?

   – Is there a strategy that could help you emerge
     from a cyclical downturn in a stronger position?

   – How might you lead that process?
Industry responses




– Metre-payment system

– The Exclusive “Club”
Industry responses



– Daily Charges




– Considering paid access to specialist
  content
Industry responses


– Tip jar




– E-Readers
References
http://delicious.com/joannageary/hyperisland
Thank You!




         joanna.geary@thetimes.co.uk
         linkedin.com/in/joannageary

             twitter.com/joannageary

                    joannageary.com

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The Death of Newspapers? Finding business models in a perfect storm.

  • 1. The Death of Newspapers? Finding business models in a perfect storm
  • 3.
  • 4. Long, slow death? UK National Newspaper Monthly Circulation 2001 - 2008 4,000,000 3,500,000 The Sun 3,000,000 The Mirror Daily Star 2,500,000 No. copies sold Daily Record Daily Mail 2,000,000 The Express Daily Telegraph 1,500,000 The Times FT 1,000,000 The Guardian The Independent 500,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
  • 6. Cyclical Recession hits early and hard: • More media firms have issued profit warnings in the last six months than since the 2001 dot com crash. (Ernst & Young) • Over the 19 weeks to 9 May 2009, Johnston Press saw total advertising revenues down 34.4% year on year. • In May, Trinity Mirror said that group advertising revenue declined by 30% year on year
  • 7. Structural Demand is declining: • Disruptive free-sheet business models. • Lifestyle changes. • New platforms diluting market share. Newspaper organisations evolved to deliver on news print.
  • 8. Industry response? • Offline model moved online. • Product-focused, not demand-focused. • Little innovation. • Slow to react to change. • Online competition ignored. • Stalled with protectionist arguments.
  • 9. The result? • Flooded market • Web advertising devalued (About one-tenth of print advertising) • Traditional print revenues disrupted (Classifieds, business directories, dating, coupons) • Control of product distribution lost
  • 10. Users (‘000s) Unique 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 The Stat Race Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Telegraph MailOnline Times Online Guardian.co.uk Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
  • 11. The Stat Race: results
  • 12. It can not continue “The current days of the internet will soon be over."
  • 13. But some got it right
  • 14. But some got it right
  • 15. Schibsted: Aftonbladet Profit (EBITA) 300 250 200 SEK (million) Online EBITA 150 Print EBITA 100 50 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
  • 16. Dating Dieting & Fitness Used Cars Club Yellow & White Classifieds Directory Telephone Directory = 60+%
  • 17. Wall Street Journal Ten-year-old subscription service • Reputation for business news • Responsive pay wall
  • 18. Where did it go wrong? Trough of disillusionment
  • 19. Group Exercise • Where did the industry go wrong? • How can you use these lessons to avoid similar mistakes? – What cyclical and structural issues do you face? – Is there a strategy that could help you emerge from a cyclical downturn in a stronger position? – How might you lead that process?
  • 20. Industry responses – Metre-payment system – The Exclusive “Club”
  • 21. Industry responses – Daily Charges – Considering paid access to specialist content
  • 22. Industry responses – Tip jar – E-Readers
  • 24. Thank You! joanna.geary@thetimes.co.uk linkedin.com/in/joannageary twitter.com/joannageary joannageary.com