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Illmer

IIPC                    Investment Performance
                        Consulting AG




                                                    IRR Attribution


                                                    Date:               November 2011
                                                    Produced by:        Dr. Stefan J. Illmer




       Illmer                                                                                  Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                             Success through excellence!                    Date: November 2011 - Slide 1
IRR Attribution



Agenda

   Introduction
   Calculation of IRR
   Contribution to IRR
   IRR attribution
   Hypothetical example
   Simple example for an IRR implementation
   Critical aspects
   Comments and questions
   Appendix: Profit and loss attribution
   References
   Contact details and disclaimer



       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!    Date: November 2011 - Slide 2
IRR Attribution




                                  Introduction




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!    Date: November 2011 - Slide 3
IRR Attribution



Initial comments on TWR attribution

Decomposing the TWR is common practice and the main method implemented
by performance attribution software providers, means that:
 Portfolio and benchmark returns are TWRs.
 Segment and stock returns are TWRs.
 Return contributions are calculated using TWRs.
 Use of TWRs assumes that portfolio manager has no discretion over any
   (external as well as internal) cash flows.
 Impact of internal as well as external cash flows are neutralized.
 Impact of over- / underweighting of segments or stocks is dealt by using
   weights instead of cash flows.




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!    Date: November 2011 - Slide 4
IRR Attribution



Initial comments on MWR attribution

Decomposing the MWR is not common practice and not offered by performance
attribution software providers, means that:
 Decomposing the MWR or TWR using the "MWR-concept" is not common
    practice.
 The effect of cash flows is not allocated properly.
 The management effects may be misleading.




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!    Date: November 2011 - Slide 5
IRR Attribution



Initial comments on MWR

Money-weighted rate of return (MWR) measures the return of a portfolio in a
way that the return is sensitive to changes in the money invested:
 MWR measures the return from a client’s perspective where he does have
  control over the (external) cash flows.
 MWR does not allow a comparison across peer groups.
 MWR does allow a comparison against a benchmark (adjusted for cash
  flows).
 MWR is best measured by the internal rate of return (IRR).
 Calculating, decomposing and reporting MWRs is not common practice.
 MWRs are not generally covered by the GIPS Standards - just for private
  equity and closed end real estate funds.




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!    Date: November 2011 - Slide 6
IRR Attribution



Decomposition of MWR versus TWR

The MWR allows a decomposition of the portfolio return reflecting the client’s
main investment decision:
 TWR Benchmark effect => reflects the return contribution based on the
  client’s decision to invest his initial capital into a specific benchmark strategy
  (corresponds to the TWR benchmark return).
 TWR Management effect => reflects the return contribution based on
  deviating from the benchmark strategy by asset allocation and stock picking
  (corresponds to the TWR attribution effects).
 MWR Timing effect           => reflects the return contribution of changing the
  initial invested capital into the benchmark strategy and into the asset
  allocation of the portfolio (corresponds to the difference between MWR and
  TWR).




       Illmer                                                       Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!          Date: November 2011 - Slide 7
IRR Attribution



Decomposition of MWR – Another perspective

The MWR allows also a decomposition of the portfolio return without explicitly
separating the timing effect:
 MWR Benchmark effect          => reflects the return contribution based on the
   client’s decision to invest his capital into a specific benchmark strategy
   (including the effect of changing the initial invested capital).
 MWR Management effect => reflects the return contribution based on
   deviating from the benchmark strategy by asset allocation and stock picking
   (including the effect of changing the initial invested capital).




       Illmer                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!       Date: November 2011 - Slide 8
IRR Attribution



Comparison of different decomposition approaches

                                                    TWR



        TWR                                         +           TWR                      +                MWR
   Benchmark effect                                       Management effects                           Timing effect


                                                                   MWR


        MWR                                                           +                              MWR
   Benchmark effect                                                                             Management effects

     TWR                             Timing                                                        TWR                      Timing
                           +                                                                                      +
Benchmark effect                 Benchmark effect                                            Management effects        Management effects




        Illmer                                                                                                Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC    Investment Performance
        Consulting AG                                      Success through excellence!                         Date: November 2011 - Slide 9
IRR Attribution



General framework for decomposing returns                                        (1/2)

The MWR-calculation and MWR-attribution allow to define a general framework
for decomposing returns:
 That combines the different views on performance (client versus portfolio
    manager).
 That connects the different return measurement methods (TWR and MWR).
 That connects the different return attribution methods (TWR and MWR).
 That corresponds to absolute profit & loss measurement and profit & loss
    attribution.
 Etc.




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 10
IRR Attribution



General framework for decomposing returns                                                                   (2/2)
  "Odd" questions can be better answered using the general framework for
                  decomposing returns; including MWRs!


                                                                      Multiplying the
                          The return is positive                      weights with the
                            but I lost money -                      return does not lead
                               how come?                            to my absolute profit
                                                                        - how come?

                                 The segment return is
                                  positive but its return
                                 contribution is negative                  What is my on
                                      - how come?                          average invested
                                                                               capital?



       Illmer                                                                            Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                         Success through excellence!                 Date: November 2011 - Slide 11
IRR Attribution




                                Calculation of IRR




       Illmer                                                  Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG             Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 12
IRR Attribution



First step towards IRR attribution

 Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio.
 Calculation of the IRR for the benchmark
  => by simulating the portfolio's cash in- and outflows also for the
      benchmark.
 Calculation of the excess IRR.




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 13
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio                                                                  (1/2)

                                           ������−1
                ������������������������                             −������������,������
  0=                            ������������
                                       +                         ������������−0
                                                                          − ������������������������
             1 + ������������������������                         1 + ������������������������
                                           ������=1




To calculate the MWR, in the industry different methodologies are used where all but one
are approximation methods for the “true” MWR. In the following the internal rate of return
methodology (IRR) as the "true" MWR is used because it is not only the most precise
method for calculating a MWR but the one methodology that solves the full calculation
problem. The IRR is the return / interest rate that causes the ending market value and
intermediate cash flows to be discounted to the beginning market value.



       Illmer                                                                          Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                 Success through excellence!       Date: November 2011 - Slide 14
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio                                                             (2/2)

 ������������������������     =          Portfolio beginning market value.
 ������������������������     =          Portfolio ending market value at T.
 ������������������������     =          IRR of portfolio.
 ������������,������      =          Portfolio cash flow at t.
 ������������         =          Length of measurement period (to be measured in years – 365).
 ������������−0       =          Length of time period between the beginning of the measurement
                         period and the date of the cash flow (to be measured in years – 365).




       Illmer                                                                     Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                         Success through excellence!          Date: November 2011 - Slide 15
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the IRR for the benchmark

                                           ������−1                                         ������ℎ������������������: ������������,������ = ������������,������
        ������������������������                                     −������������,������
  0=                            ������������
                                       +                         ������������−0
                                                                          − ������������������������
     1 + ������������������������                                 1 + ������������������������
                                           ������=1



                                                         ������������������������    = Benchmark beginning market value.
                                                         ������������������������    = Benchmark ending market value at T.
                                                         ������������������������    = IRR of benchmark.
                                                         ������������,������     = Benchmark cash flow at t.


Here it is important that the cash inflows (outflows) are invested (de-invested) according
to the actual benchmark asset allocation at the time of the cash flow and that the returns
of the money invested equal the respective returns of the underlying benchmark
investments. In addition cash flows have to be simulated for rebalancing activities.

       Illmer                                                                                  Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                 Success through excellence!               Date: November 2011 - Slide 16
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the excess IRR

 ������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������          ������������������������������ = Excess IRR.




       Illmer                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                Success through excellence!       Date: November 2011 - Slide 17
IRR Attribution




                                Contribution to IRR




       Illmer                                                   Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG              Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 18
IRR Attribution



Second step towards IRR attribution

   Calculation of the profit and loss of the different asset classes.
   Calculation of the average invested capital for the different asset classes.
   Calculation of the asset class contribution to the IRR for the portfolio.
   Calculation of the asset class contribution to the IRR for the benchmark.
   Calculation of the asset class contribution to the excess IRR.




       Illmer                                                        Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!          Date: November 2011 - Slide 19
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the profit and loss

                                                     ������−1
                                                                                   ������������������          = Profit and loss of portfolio.
 ������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ −                              ������������,������
                                                      ������=1



                       ������                      ������                                  ������−1

 ������������������ =                       ������������������,������ =          ������������������������,������ − ������������������������,������ −            ������������,������,������
                    ������=1                      ������=1                                  ������=������


                                                             ������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i.
                                                             ������������������������,������ = Ending market value of asset class i.
                                                             ������������������������,������ = Beginning market value of asset class i.
                                                             ������������,������,������ = Cash flow of asset class i at t.
Same formulas apply
 for the benchmark
                                                             n           = Number of asset classes.


       Illmer                                                                                                      Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                           Success through excellence!                         Date: November 2011 - Slide 20
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the average invested capital                                                   (1/3)

             ������������������              ������������������������   = Average invested capital of portfolio.
 ������������������������ =
            ������������������������


                   ������������������,������     ������������������������,������ = Average invested capital of asset class i.
 ������������������������,������    =
                  ������������������������,������    ������������������������,������ = IRR of asset class i.



Basic idea: Within the IRR framework every cash flow series can be transferred to a cash
flow series consisting of two cash flows - the cash inflow at the beginning of the
investment period and a cash outflow at the end of the investment period. For such a
cash flow series the average invested capital is equal to the cash inflow at the beginning
of the investment period.
                                                                    Same formulas apply
                                                                     for the benchmark

        Illmer                                                             Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC    Investment Performance
        Consulting AG               Success through excellence!            Date: November 2011 - Slide 21
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the average invested capital                                                        (2a/3)

 31.12.2008                                   31.12.2009                           31.12.2010
  - 100.00                             = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00                    + 157.50
                                                                P&L = + 12.50 and IRR = 5.00%


 31.12.2008                                   31.12.2009                           31.12.2010
  - 100.00                             = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00                    + 157.50

                                Compounded with cost of            * (1 + 5.00%)
                                capital - here equals IRR                             - 47.25

  - 100.00                                                                           + 110.25
                                        * (- 1) / (1 + 5.00%)^2
                                                                                   IRR = 5.00%


       Illmer                                                                       Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                      Success through excellence!               Date: November 2011 - Slide 22
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the average invested capital                                           (2b/3)

 31.12.2008                                31.12.2009                 31.12.2010
  - 100.00                                                           P&L = + 10.25
                                  * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1

                                    12.50 / 10.25 = 1.2195...


  - 121.95                                                           P&L = + 12.50
                                * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1




       Illmer                                                          Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                   Success through excellence!     Date: November 2011 - Slide 23
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the average invested capital                                                (2c/3)

  31.12.2008                                      31.12.2009               31.12.2010
   - 100.00                               = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00        + 157.50
   - 100.00                                                                 +105.00
                                                    + 5.00
                                / (1 + 5.00%)^1
    + 4.76                                                                      0.00
                                                    -50.00
    - 47.62                     / (1 + 5.00%)^1                              + 52.50

   - 142.86                                                                 + 157.50
                                      * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1
Remark: 142.86 is not the "correct" AIC for the relevant cash flow stream as the P&L is not
        12.50 but instead 14.64. The difference is due to the interest costs or earnings of
        the interim cash flows - here for the first period (- 0.24 and + 2.38).
        Interpretations: One could have earned absolute 2.14 more if 45.00 where also
        available for investment in the first period (increasing AIC from 121.95 to 142.86).

       Illmer                                                              Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                         Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 24
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the average invested capital                                                             (3/3)

       1
                   12.50                        12.50
 ������������������������   =                            2−1
                                             =        = 121.95 ⟺
              1 + 5.00%                        10.25%


       2
                   10.25                        10.25
 ������������������������   =                            2−1
                                             =        = 100.00
              1 + 5.00%                        10.25%


       1                  2
                                    ������������1
                                        ������   ������������2
                                                 ������          1          2
                                                                            ������������1
                                                                                ������
 ������������������������   =       ������������������������     ⟺       1 =      2  ⟺ ������������������������ = ������������������������ × 2
                                   ������������������������ ������������������������                        ������������������

In absolute terms the average invested capital (AIC) of the two cash flow streams (the
original and the transferred one) are not identical but the AIC as well as the absolute
profit and loss are multiples of each other driven by the ratio between the different P&L
figures.

        Illmer                                                                       Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC    Investment Performance
        Consulting AG                                Success through excellence!     Date: November 2011 - Slide 25
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the contribution to the IRR for the portfolio

                                 ������                        ������                                  ������
             ������������������                    ������������������,������                ������������������������,������
 ������������������������ =          =                           =                          × ������������������������,������ =          ������������������,������
            ������������������������                   ������������������������                  ������������������������
                                ������=1                   ������=1                                   ������=1



                                                                    ������������������,������   = Contribution to IRR of asset class i.


It is important to note that the average invested capital of the total portfolio does not have
to be equal to the sum of the average invested capitals of all asset classes (due to the
different implicit reinvestment assumptions).

                                       ������

 ������������������������ ≤ ������������ = ������������ ≥                    ������������������������,������
                                      ������=1


       Illmer                                                                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                            Success through excellence!                      Date: November 2011 - Slide 26
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the contribution to the IRR for the benchmark

                                 ������                   ������                                   ������
             ������������������                    ������������������,������            ������������������������,������
 ������������������������ =          =                           =                      × ������������������������,������ =          ������������������,������
            ������������������������                   ������������������������              ������������������������
                                ������=1                 ������=1                                 ������=1



                                                     ������������������,������     = Contribution to IRR of asset class i.
                                                     ������������������        = Profit and loss of benchmark.
                                                     ������������������,������     = Profit and loss of asset class i.
                                                     ������������������������      = Average invested capital of benchmark.
                                                     ������������������������,������   = Average invested capital of asset class i.




       Illmer                                                                                                Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                       Success through excellence!                       Date: November 2011 - Slide 27
IRR Attribution



Calculation of the contribution to the excess IRR

                                                          ������                   ������

 ������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ =                             ������������������,������ −          ������������������,������
                                                         ������=1                 ������=1


                                ������                                  ������                                   ������                   ������
                                     ������������������������,������                          ������������������������,������                          ������������������,������             ������������������,������
 ������������������������������ =                                    × ������������������������,������ −                      × ������������������������,������ =                    −
                                      ������������������������                             ������������������������                            ������������������������              ������������������������
                           ������=1                                    ������=1                                 ������=1                 ������=1




       Illmer                                                                                                                      Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                            Success through excellence!                                        Date: November 2011 - Slide 28
IRR Attribution




                                IRR attribution




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 29
IRR Attribution



 Third and last step towards IRR attribution

 Here the excess IRR is decomposed according to the Brinson, Hood and Beebower
 return attribution methodology and therefore split up into the asset allocation effect, stock
 picking effect and interaction effect.

                                                                       ������                     ������                       ������

������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ = ������������������������ + ������������������������ + ������������������������ =          ������������������������,������ +          ������������������������,������ +           ������������������������,������
                                                                      ������=1                   ������=1                    ������=1



                                              ������������������������      = Asset allocation effect of portfolio.
                                              ������������������������,������   = Asset allocation effect of asset class i.
                                              ������������������������      = Stock picking effect of portfolio.
                                              ������������������������,������   = Stock picking effect of asset class i.
                                              ������������������������      = Interaction effect of portfolio.
                                              ������������������������,������   = Interaction effect of asset class i.


        Illmer                                                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
 IIPC   Investment Performance
        Consulting AG                       Success through excellence!                                Date: November 2011 - Slide 30
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for IRR attribution                                                                                          (1/5)

                                                                       Selection
                                                    Actual                              Passive

                                                                                     Quadrant II
                                                                                   IRR of notional
                   Actual




                                                 Quadrant IV
                                                                                      portfolio 1
Asset Allocation




                                             IRR of actual portfolio
                                                                              => active asset allocation
                                                                                       portfolio



                                      Quadrant III
                   Passive




                                     IRR of notional                                  Quadrant I
                                        portfolio 2                                IRR of benchmark
                             => active stock picking portfolio




                    Illmer                                                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC                Investment Performance
                    Consulting AG                                 Success through excellence!              Date: November 2011 - Slide 31
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for IRR attribution                                                           (2/5)
Quadrant IV represents the IRR of the         Quadrant II represents the IRR of the
actual portfolio which reflects all passive   notional portfolio 1 which reflects the active
and active investment management              asset allocation of the portfolio assuming no
decisions. The calculation of the IRR of      stock picking. The calculation of the IRR of
the actual portfolio is based on the actual   the notional portfolio 1 is based on the actual
weights of the asset classes - expressed      weights of the asset classes - expressed as
as cash flows - and the respective actual     cash flows - and the respective passive
returns.                                      index returns.

Quadrant III represents the IRR of the        Quadrant I represents the IRR of the
notional portfolio 2 which reflects the       benchmark. The calculation of the IRR of the
active stock picking of the portfolio         benchmark is based on the passive weights
assuming no active asset allocation. The      of the asset classes - expressed as cash
calculation of the IRR of the notional        flows - and the respective passive index
portfolio 2 is based on the passive           returns.
weights of the asset classes - expressed
as cash flows - and the respective actual
returns.

       Illmer                                                               Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG              Success through excellence!               Date: November 2011 - Slide 32
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for IRR attribution                                                                                     (3/5)

                                                                                        ������                        ������

 ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������������1 − ������������������������ =            ������������������������1,������ −            ������������������,������
                                                                                       ������=1                     ������=1


                                                  ������������������������������1 = IRR of notional portfolio 1.
                                                  ������������������������1,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i.

                                                                                        ������                        ������

 ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������������2 − ������������������������ =          ������������������������2,������ −             ������������������,������
                                                                                       ������=1                     ������=1


                                                  ������������������������������2 = IRR of notional portfolio 2.
                                                  ������������������������2,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i.


       Illmer                                                                                        Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                        Success through excellence!                              Date: November 2011 - Slide 33
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for IRR attribution                                                                                                (4/5)

 ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������ + ������������������������������������������������ ������


 ������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������������2 − ������������������������������1 + ������������������������

                      ������                       ������                      ������                      ������

 ������������������������ =                     ������������������,������ −          ������������������������2,������ −          ������������������������1,������ +          ������������������,������
                    ������=1                      ������=1                    ������=1                    ������=1




       Illmer                                                                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                           Success through excellence!                       Date: November 2011 - Slide 34
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for IRR attribution                                                                       (5/5)

On an asset class level:
                                ������������������������,������ = ������������������������1,������ − ������������������,������


                                ������������������������,������ = ������������������������2,������ − ������������������,������


                                ������������������������,������ = ������������������,������ − ������������������������2,������ − ������������������������1,������ + ������������������,������




       Illmer                                                                           Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!                             Date: November 2011 - Slide 35
IRR Attribution




                                Hypothetical example




       Illmer                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG               Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 36
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Assumptions                                                 (1/8)

 Sample multi-asset class portfolio is investing in two asset classes A and B.
 Relevant benchmark is also investing in these two asset classes A and B.
 The portfolio as well the benchmark are rebalanced on a yearly basis at the
  beginning of the calendar year.
 A two year period from 31.12.2006 until 31.12.2008 is considered.
 At the beginning of 2007 EUR 150 are invested in the portfolio.
 At the beginning of 2008 additional EUR 100 are invested into the portfolio
  according to the then current active asset allocation and stock pickings.




       Illmer                                                   Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!     Date: November 2011 - Slide 37
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Return calculations                                                                                      (2a/8)

                                                Actual Portfolio (IRR)

                                 Period 1                     Period 2
  Dates                         31.12.2006                   31.12.2007               31.12.2008
                        Cash flow at beginning         Cash flow at beginning   Market value at the end
                               of period                      of period                of period
 Asset A                           -75.0                        47.6                     36.7
 Asset B                           -75.0                       -147.6                   240.8
 Portfolio                         -150.0                      -100.0                   277.5
                             Actual weights at            Actual weights at      Weights at the end of
                            beginning of period          beginning of period           period
 Asset A                           50.0%                       15.0%                    13.2%
 Asset B                           50.0%                       85.0%                    86.8%
 Portfolio                        100.0%                      100.0%                   100.0%

                                Actual return               Actual return        Cummulative return

 Asset A                           15.0%                       -5.0%                    17.9%
 Asset B                           -5.0%                       10.0%                    12.4%             Remark: negative (positive) cash
                                                                                                                  flow means cash inflow
 Portfolio                         5.0%                        7.8%                     13.8%                     (outflow).


       Illmer                                                                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                         Success through excellence!                         Date: November 2011 - Slide 38
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Return calculations                                                                                      (2b/8)

                                                Actual Portfolio (IRR)

                                 Period 1                     Period 2
  Dates                         31.12.2006                   31.12.2007               31.12.2008
                        Cash flow at beginning         Cash flow at beginning   Market value at the end
                               of period                      of period                of period
 Asset A                           -75.0                        47.6                     36.7
 Asset B                           -75.0                       -147.6                   240.8
 Portfolio                         -150.0                      -100.0                   277.5
                             Actual weights at            Actual weights at      Weights at the end of
                            beginning of period          beginning of period           period
 Asset A                           50.0%
                                                          75 15.0% + 15% − 15% × 150 × 1 + 5% + 100
                                                             × 1              13.2%
 Asset B                           50.0%                     85.0%
                                                                   = 86.25 − 15% × 157.5 + 100
                                                                              86.8%
 Portfolio                        100.0%                    100.0% = 86.25 − 38.625 = 47.625
                                                                             100.0%

                                Actual return               Actual return        Cummulative return

 Asset A                           15.0%                       -5.0%                    17.9%
 Asset B                           -5.0%                       10.0%                    12.4%             Remark: negative (positive) cash
                                                                                                                  flow means cash inflow
 Portfolio                         5.0%                        7.8%                     13.8%                     (outflow).


       Illmer                                                                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                         Success through excellence!                         Date: November 2011 - Slide 39
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Return calculations                                                                                        (3/8)

                                                 Benchmark (IRR)

                                  Period 1                 Period 2
  Dates                          31.12.2006               31.12.2007                31.12.2008
                        Cash flow at beginning       Cash flow at beginning   Market value at the end
                               of period                    of period                of period
 Asset A                            -45.0                    -39.5                     83.0
 Asset B                           -105.0                    -60.6                    167.2
 Portfolio                         -150.0                   -100.0                    250.2
                            Passive weights at        Passive weights at       Weights at the end of
                            beginning of period       beginning of period            period
 Asset A                           30.0%                    30.0%                     33.2%
 Asset B                           70.0%                    70.0%                     66.8%
 Portfolio                         100.0%                   100.0%                   100.0%

                                Passive return           Passive return        Cummulative return

 Asset A                           -20.0%                   10.0%                     -2.2%
 Asset B                           10.0%                     -5.0%                     1.3%             Remark: negative (positive) cash
                                                                                                                flow means cash inflow
 Portfolio                          1.0%                     -0.5%                     0.1%                     (outflow).


       Illmer                                                                                                  Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                      Success through excellence!                          Date: November 2011 - Slide 40
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Return calculations                                                                                         (4/8)

                                             Notional Portfolio 1 (IRR)

                                  Period 1                   Period 2
  Dates                          31.12.2006                 31.12.2007               31.12.2008
                        Cash flow at beginning        Cash flow at beginning   Market value at the end
                               of period                     of period                of period
 Asset A                            -75.0                      23.6                     40.0
 Asset B                            -75.0                     -123.6                   195.8
 Portfolio                         -150.0                     -100.0                   235.8
                             Actual weights at           Actual weights at      Weights at the end of
                            beginning of period         beginning of period           period
 Asset A                           50.0%                      15.0%                    17.0%
 Asset B                           50.0%                      85.0%                    83.0%
 Portfolio                         100.0%                    100.0%                   100.0%

                                Passive return            Passive return        Cummulative return

 Asset A                           -20.0%                     10.0%                    -18.2%
 Asset B                           10.0%                      -5.0%                    -2.0%             Remark: negative (positive) cash
                                                                                                                 flow means cash inflow
 Portfolio                          -5.0%                     -2.8%                    -7.0%                     (outflow).


       Illmer                                                                                                   Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                        Success through excellence!                         Date: November 2011 - Slide 41
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Return calculations                                                                                         (5/8)

                                            Notional Portfolio 2 (IRR)

                                 Period 1                   Period 2
  Dates                         31.12.2006                 31.12.2007               31.12.2008
                        Cash flow at beginning       Cash flow at beginning   Investment at the end of
                               of period                    of period                 period
 Asset A                           -45.0                      -23.7                    71.7
 Asset B                           -105.0                     -76.3                    193.7
 Portfolio                         -150.0                    -100.0                    265.3
                            Passive weights at         Passive weights at      Weights at the end of
                            beginning of period        beginning of period           period
 Asset A                           30.0%                     30.0%                    27.0%
 Asset B                           70.0%                     70.0%                    73.0%
 Portfolio                        100.0%                    100.0%                    100.0%

                                Actual return             Actual return         Cummulative return

 Asset A                           15.0%                     -5.0%                     5.2%
 Asset B                           -5.0%                     10.0%                     8.7%              Remark: negative (positive) cash
                                                                                                                 flow means cash inflow
 Portfolio                         1.0%                       5.5%                     7.7%                      (outflow).


       Illmer                                                                                                   Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                       Success through excellence!                          Date: November 2011 - Slide 42
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Management effects                                                            (6/8)

                                       Actual Portfolio (IRR)

                                P&L             AIC                 IRR    RC

  Asset A                       9.3            52.1               17.9%   4.7%

  Asset B                       18.1           146.8              12.4%   9.1%
                                                       
  Portfolio                     27.5           198.4              13.8%   13.8%



                                         Benchmark (IRR)

                                P&L             AIC                 IRR    RC

  Asset A                       -1.5           64.9               -2.2%   -0.7%

  Asset B                       1.7            135.2               1.3%   0.8%

  Portfolio                     0.2            200.1               0.1%   0.1%


       Illmer                                                                     Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                        Success through excellence!           Date: November 2011 - Slide 43
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Management effects                                                                (7/8)

                                        Notional Portfolio 1 (IRR)

                                P&L                AIC                 IRR     RC

  Asset A                       -11.4             62.6               -18.2%   -5.7%

  Asset B                       -2.8              137.2              -2.0%    -1.4%

  Portfolio                     -14.2             201.0              -7.0%    -7.0%



                                        Notional Portfolio 2 (IRR)

                                P&L                AIC                 IRR     RC

  Asset A                       3.0               56.7                5.2%    1.5%

  Asset B                       12.4              142.4               8.7%    6.2%

  Portfolio                     15.3              199.1               7.7%    7.7%


       Illmer                                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                           Success through excellence!            Date: November 2011 - Slide 44
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Management effects                                                                             (8a/8)
                                                                              Remark: Here high IAE due to the big shifts. in
                                                                                      the asset allocation.
                                             IRR-Attribution

                                AAE                SPE                  IAE                     Total

  Asset A                       -4.9%              2.2%                8.1%                     5.4%

  Asset B                       -2.2%              5.4%                5.2%                     8.3%

  Portfolio                     -7.2%              7.6%               13.3%                    13.7%

                                                                              Remark: IRR figures are consistent with the
                                                                                      absolute profit & loss figures – see
                                        Profit and Loss Attribution                   appendix.

                                AAE                SPE                  IAE                     Total

  Asset A                       -9.9                4.4                16.2                      10.8

  Asset B                       -4.5               10.7                10.3                      16.4

  Portfolio                     -14.4              15.1                26.5                      27.2


       Illmer                                                                                           Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                            Success through excellence!                             Date: November 2011 - Slide 45
IRR Attribution



Hypothetical example – Management effects                                                              (8b/8)

                                             IRR-Attribution

                                AAE                SPE                  IAE     Total

  Asset A                       -4.9%              2.2%                8.1%     5.4%

  Asset B                       -2.2%              5.4%                5.2%     8.3%

  Portfolio                     -7.2%              7.6%               13.3%    13.7%



                                        Profit and Loss Attribution

                                AAE                SPE                  IAE     Total

  Asset A                       -9.9         ������������������������14.4 ������������������ = −11.4 − −1.5 = 10.8
                                                       −              16.2        −9.9
  Asset B                       -4.5               10.7                10.3     16.4

  Portfolio                     -14.4              15.1                26.5     27.2


       Illmer                                                                           Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                            Success through excellence!             Date: November 2011 - Slide 46
IRR Attribution




                                Simple example for an IRR implementation




       Illmer                                                              Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                         Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 47
IRR Attribution



                   Simple example for an IRR implementation                                                                     (1/3)
before cash flow




                   Asset allocation in %            31.12.2009       31.03.2010         30.06.2010   30.09.2010                31.12.2010
                   Cash                                    -              99.50              99.00        98.51                     98.01
                   Bonds                                   -             618.00             624.18       314.45                    308.17
                   Equities                                -             255.00             234.60       918.06                  1'009.87
                   Total portfolio                         -             972.50             957.78     1'331.02                  1'416.05

                   Cash flows                       31.12.2009       31.03.2010         30.06.2010   30.09.2010                31.12.2010
                   Cash                                 100.00              -                  -            -                         -
                   Bonds                                600.00              -              -300.00          -                         -
                   Equities                             300.00              -               600.00          -                         -
                   Total portfolio                    1'000.00              -               300.00          -                         -

                   Asset allocation in %            31.12.2009       31.03.2010         30.06.2010   30.09.2010                31.12.2010
after cash flow




                   Cash                                 100.00            99.50              99.00        98.51                     98.01
                   Bonds                                600.00           618.00             324.18       314.45                    308.17
                   Equities                             300.00           255.00             834.60       918.06                  1'009.87
                   Total portfolio                    1'000.00           972.50           1'257.78     1'331.02                  1'416.05

                   Investment returns               31.12.2009       31.03.2010         30.06.2010   30.09.2010                31.12.2010
                   Cash                                                  -0.50%             -0.50%       -0.50%                    -0.50%
                   Bonds                                                  3.00%              1.00%       -3.00%                    -2.00%
                   Equities                                             -15.00%             -8.00%      10.00%                    10.00%
                   Total portfolio                                       -2.75%             -1.51%        5.82%                     6.39%



                           Illmer                                                                            Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
                   IIPC    Investment Performance
                           Consulting AG                         Success through excellence!                 Date: November 2011 - Slide 48
IRR Attribution



Simple example for an IRR implementation                                                                                  (2/3)
                                                                                     Remark: negative (positive) cash flow
                                                                                             means cash inflow (outflow).
Cash flows for IRR                 31.12.2009        31.03.2010         30.06.2010            30.09.2010                 31.12.2010
Cash                                  -100.00               -                  -                     -                        98.01
Bonds                                 -600.00               -               300.00                   -                       308.17
Equities                              -300.00               -              -600.00                   -                     1'009.87
Total portfolio                     -1'000.00               -              -300.00                   -                     1'416.05

                                 Profit & Loss            TWR        Timing effect                   IRR     Contribution to IRR
Cash                                     -1.99          -1.99%              0.00%                -1.99%                  -0.17%
Bonds                                     8.17          -1.11%              2.93%                 1.82%                   0.71%
Equities                               109.87           -5.38%             24.01%                18.63%                   9.57%
Total portfolio                        116.05            7.83%              2.28%                10.11%                  10.11%



Investment Reporting based on TWR shows wondrous results:
 Negative TWR but absolute profit for bonds and equities.
 Negative TWRs for all asset classes but positive TWR for the total portfolio.
 …



        Illmer                                                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC    Investment Performance
        Consulting AG                            Success through excellence!                           Date: November 2011 - Slide 49
IRR Attribution



Simple example for an IRR implementation                                                                         (3/3)
30%



25%



20%



15%


                                                                                        TWR
10%
                                                                                        Timing effect
                                                                                        IRR
 5%



 0%



 -5%



-10%
                      Cash      Bonds             Equities            Total portfolio




       Illmer                                                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                    Success through excellence!                           Date: November 2011 - Slide 50
IRR Attribution




                                Critical aspects




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 51
IRR Attribution



Critical aspects

 Unrealistic (re-)investment assumption:
         => explicit / realistic (re-)investment assumptions (MIRR).
 Multiple solutions for IRR:
         => explicit / realistic (re-)investment assumptions.
 IRR for benchmarks:
         => public market equivalent (PME) used in private equity industry.
 Peer group comparison:
         => IRR not designed for peer analysis.
 Risk measurement:
         => IRR not designed for dispersion analytics.
 Implied interim asset values differ from true interim asset value
         => IRR is designed as an average return for the reporting period.
 ...


       Illmer                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!      Date: November 2011 - Slide 52
IRR Attribution




                                Comments and questions




       Illmer                                                     Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 53
IRR Attribution




                                Appendix: Profit and loss attribution




       Illmer                                                            Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                       Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 54
IRR Attribution



Last step towards profit and loss attribution

Here the excess profit and loss is decomposed according to the Brinson, Hood and
Beebower return attribution methodology and therefore split up into the asset allocation
effect, stock picking effect and interaction effect.

 ������������������������ = ������������������ − ������������������ = ������������������������������ + ������������������������������ + ������������������������������
                         ������                        ������                       ������

               =                ������������������������������,������ +          ������������������������������,������ +          ������������������������������,������
                       ������=1                       ������=1                     ������=1


                                ������������������������������      = Profit and loss of portfolio due to asset allocation.
                                ������������������������������,������   = Profit and loss of asset class i due to asset allocation.
                                ������������������������������      = Profit and loss of portfolio due to stock picking.
                                ������������������������������,������   = Profit and loss of asset class i due to stock picking.
                                ������������������������������      = Profit and loss of portfolio due to interaction.
                                ������������������������������,������   = Profit and loss of asset class i due to interaction.

       Illmer                                                                                     Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                          Success through excellence!         Date: November 2011 - Slide 55
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for profit and loss attribution                                                                              (1/5)

                                                                    Selection
                                                     Actual                             Passive

                                                                                     Quadrant II
                                                                                  P&L of notional
                         Actual




                                                 Quadrant IV
                                                                                      portfolio 1
 Asset Allocation




                                             P&L of actual portfolio
                                                                              => active asset allocation
                                                                                       portfolio


                                                 Quadrant III
                         Passive




                                                P&L of notional
                                                                                    Quadrant I
                                                   portfolio 2
                                                                                  P&L of benchmark
                                             => active stock picking
                                                     portfolio



                    Illmer                                                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC                Investment Performance
                    Consulting AG                               Success through excellence!                Date: November 2011 - Slide 56
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for profit and loss attribution                                               (2/5)
Quadrant IV represents the P&L of the         Quadrant II represents the P&L of the
actual portfolio which reflects all passive   notional portfolio 1 which reflects the active
and active investment management              asset allocation of the portfolio assuming no
decisions. The calculation of the P&L of      stock picking. The calculation of the P&L of
the actual portfolio is based on the actual   the notional portfolio 1 is based on the actual
weights of the asset classes - expressed      weights of the asset classes - expressed as
as cash flows - and the respective actual     cash flows - and the respective passive
returns.                                      index returns.

Quadrant III represents the P&L of the        Quadrant I represents the P&L of the
notional portfolio 2 which reflects the       benchmark. The calculation of the P&L of
active stock picking of the portfolio         the benchmark is based on the passive
assuming no active asset allocation. The      weights of the asset classes - expressed as
calculation of the P&L of the notional        cash flows - and the respective passive
portfolio 2 is based on the passive           index returns.
weights of the asset classes - expressed
as cash flows - and the respective actual
returns.
       Illmer                                                               Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG              Success through excellence!               Date: November 2011 - Slide 57
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for profit and loss attribution                                                                         (3/5)

                                                                                      ������                      ������

 ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������1 − ������������������ =            ������������������������1,������ −           ������������������,������
                                                                                     ������=1                    ������=1


                                              ������������������������1 = Profit and loss of notional portfolio 1.
                                              ������������������������1,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i.

                                                                                       ������                       ������

 ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������2 − ������������������ =          ������������������������2,������ −            ������������������,������
                                                                                     ������=1                     ������=1


                                              ������������������������2 = Profit and loss of notional portfolio 2.
                                              ������������������������2,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i.


       Illmer                                                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                        Success through excellence!                               Date: November 2011 - Slide 58
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for profit and loss attribution                                                                                    (4/5)

 ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������ + ������������������������������������������������ ������


 ������������������������������ = ������������������ − ������������������������2 − ������������������������1 + ������������������


                          ������                   ������                      ������                      ������

 ������������������������������ =                   ������������������,������ −          ������������������������2,������ −          ������������������������1,������ +          ������������������,������
                        ������=1                  ������=1                    ������=1                    ������=1




       Illmer                                                                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                                          Success through excellence!                        Date: November 2011 - Slide 59
IRR Attribution



Simple framework for profit and loss attribution                                         (5/5)

On an asset class level:
                                        AAPLP,i = PLNP1,i − PLB,i


                                        SPPLP,i = PLNP2,i − PLB,i


                                        IAPLP,i = PLP,i − PLNP2,i − PLNP1,i + PLB,i




       Illmer                                                         Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!           Date: November 2011 - Slide 60
References




       Illmer                                                 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 61
IRR Attribution



References

 “Determinants of Portfolio Performance”; in: Financial Analysts Journal; July
  1986; by G. Brinson, R. Hood & G. Beebower.
 “Investment Performance Measurement”; by Bruce J. Feibel.
 “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return”; in: Journal of
  Performance Measurement; Summer 2003; page 42-50; by Stefan J. Illmer
  and Wolfgang Marty.
 “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return”; at the Performance
  Attribution Risk Management 11th Annual; 5th of November 2003; by Stefan
  J. Illmer.
 “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return - an Update”; in: Journal
  of Performance Measurement; Fall 2009; page 22-29; by Stefan J. Illmer.




       Illmer                                                    Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG            Success through excellence!      Date: November 2011 - Slide 62
Contact details and disclaimer




       Illmer                                                        Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                   Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 63
Contact details

Illmer Investment Performance Consulting AG
Weinbergstrasse 28
CH - 8200 Schaffhausen
Switzerland
www.iipc-ag.com

                                Dr. Stefan Joachim Illmer
                                Tel. +41 / 79 / 962 20 37
                                Email: stefan.illmer@iipc-ag.com




       Illmer                                                                   Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                              Success through excellence!   Date: November 2011 - Slide 64
Disclaimer
This document was produced by Illmer Investment Performance Consulting AG (hereafter "IIPC-
AG") with the greatest of care and to the best of its knowledge and belief. However, IIPC-AG
provides no guarantee with regard to its content and completeness and does not accept any liability
for losses which might arise from making use of this information. This document is provided for
information purposes only and is for the exclusive use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer
or a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or banking services.
It is expressly not intended for persons who, due to their nationality or place of residence, are not
permitted access to such information under local law.




       Illmer                                                                        Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer
IIPC   Investment Performance
       Consulting AG                    Success through excellence!                  Date: November 2011 - Slide 65

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IRR attribution / profit and loss attribution

  • 1. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG IRR Attribution Date: November 2011 Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 1
  • 2. IRR Attribution Agenda  Introduction  Calculation of IRR  Contribution to IRR  IRR attribution  Hypothetical example  Simple example for an IRR implementation  Critical aspects  Comments and questions  Appendix: Profit and loss attribution  References  Contact details and disclaimer Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 2
  • 3. IRR Attribution Introduction Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 3
  • 4. IRR Attribution Initial comments on TWR attribution Decomposing the TWR is common practice and the main method implemented by performance attribution software providers, means that:  Portfolio and benchmark returns are TWRs.  Segment and stock returns are TWRs.  Return contributions are calculated using TWRs.  Use of TWRs assumes that portfolio manager has no discretion over any (external as well as internal) cash flows.  Impact of internal as well as external cash flows are neutralized.  Impact of over- / underweighting of segments or stocks is dealt by using weights instead of cash flows. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 4
  • 5. IRR Attribution Initial comments on MWR attribution Decomposing the MWR is not common practice and not offered by performance attribution software providers, means that:  Decomposing the MWR or TWR using the "MWR-concept" is not common practice.  The effect of cash flows is not allocated properly.  The management effects may be misleading. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 5
  • 6. IRR Attribution Initial comments on MWR Money-weighted rate of return (MWR) measures the return of a portfolio in a way that the return is sensitive to changes in the money invested:  MWR measures the return from a client’s perspective where he does have control over the (external) cash flows.  MWR does not allow a comparison across peer groups.  MWR does allow a comparison against a benchmark (adjusted for cash flows).  MWR is best measured by the internal rate of return (IRR).  Calculating, decomposing and reporting MWRs is not common practice.  MWRs are not generally covered by the GIPS Standards - just for private equity and closed end real estate funds. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 6
  • 7. IRR Attribution Decomposition of MWR versus TWR The MWR allows a decomposition of the portfolio return reflecting the client’s main investment decision:  TWR Benchmark effect => reflects the return contribution based on the client’s decision to invest his initial capital into a specific benchmark strategy (corresponds to the TWR benchmark return).  TWR Management effect => reflects the return contribution based on deviating from the benchmark strategy by asset allocation and stock picking (corresponds to the TWR attribution effects).  MWR Timing effect => reflects the return contribution of changing the initial invested capital into the benchmark strategy and into the asset allocation of the portfolio (corresponds to the difference between MWR and TWR). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 7
  • 8. IRR Attribution Decomposition of MWR – Another perspective The MWR allows also a decomposition of the portfolio return without explicitly separating the timing effect:  MWR Benchmark effect => reflects the return contribution based on the client’s decision to invest his capital into a specific benchmark strategy (including the effect of changing the initial invested capital).  MWR Management effect => reflects the return contribution based on deviating from the benchmark strategy by asset allocation and stock picking (including the effect of changing the initial invested capital). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 8
  • 9. IRR Attribution Comparison of different decomposition approaches TWR TWR + TWR + MWR Benchmark effect Management effects Timing effect MWR MWR + MWR Benchmark effect Management effects TWR Timing TWR Timing + + Benchmark effect Benchmark effect Management effects Management effects Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 9
  • 10. IRR Attribution General framework for decomposing returns (1/2) The MWR-calculation and MWR-attribution allow to define a general framework for decomposing returns:  That combines the different views on performance (client versus portfolio manager).  That connects the different return measurement methods (TWR and MWR).  That connects the different return attribution methods (TWR and MWR).  That corresponds to absolute profit & loss measurement and profit & loss attribution.  Etc. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 10
  • 11. IRR Attribution General framework for decomposing returns (2/2) "Odd" questions can be better answered using the general framework for decomposing returns; including MWRs! Multiplying the The return is positive weights with the but I lost money - return does not lead how come? to my absolute profit - how come? The segment return is positive but its return contribution is negative What is my on - how come? average invested capital? Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 11
  • 12. IRR Attribution Calculation of IRR Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 12
  • 13. IRR Attribution First step towards IRR attribution  Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio.  Calculation of the IRR for the benchmark => by simulating the portfolio's cash in- and outflows also for the benchmark.  Calculation of the excess IRR. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 13
  • 14. IRR Attribution Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio (1/2) ������−1 ������������������������ −������������,������ 0= ������������ + ������������−0 − ������������������������ 1 + ������������������������ 1 + ������������������������ ������=1 To calculate the MWR, in the industry different methodologies are used where all but one are approximation methods for the “true” MWR. In the following the internal rate of return methodology (IRR) as the "true" MWR is used because it is not only the most precise method for calculating a MWR but the one methodology that solves the full calculation problem. The IRR is the return / interest rate that causes the ending market value and intermediate cash flows to be discounted to the beginning market value. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 14
  • 15. IRR Attribution Calculation of the IRR for the portfolio (2/2) ������������������������ = Portfolio beginning market value. ������������������������ = Portfolio ending market value at T. ������������������������ = IRR of portfolio. ������������,������ = Portfolio cash flow at t. ������������ = Length of measurement period (to be measured in years – 365). ������������−0 = Length of time period between the beginning of the measurement period and the date of the cash flow (to be measured in years – 365). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 15
  • 16. IRR Attribution Calculation of the IRR for the benchmark ������−1 ������ℎ������������������: ������������,������ = ������������,������ ������������������������ −������������,������ 0= ������������ + ������������−0 − ������������������������ 1 + ������������������������ 1 + ������������������������ ������=1 ������������������������ = Benchmark beginning market value. ������������������������ = Benchmark ending market value at T. ������������������������ = IRR of benchmark. ������������,������ = Benchmark cash flow at t. Here it is important that the cash inflows (outflows) are invested (de-invested) according to the actual benchmark asset allocation at the time of the cash flow and that the returns of the money invested equal the respective returns of the underlying benchmark investments. In addition cash flows have to be simulated for rebalancing activities. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 16
  • 17. IRR Attribution Calculation of the excess IRR ������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ ������������������������������ = Excess IRR. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 17
  • 18. IRR Attribution Contribution to IRR Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 18
  • 19. IRR Attribution Second step towards IRR attribution  Calculation of the profit and loss of the different asset classes.  Calculation of the average invested capital for the different asset classes.  Calculation of the asset class contribution to the IRR for the portfolio.  Calculation of the asset class contribution to the IRR for the benchmark.  Calculation of the asset class contribution to the excess IRR. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 19
  • 20. IRR Attribution Calculation of the profit and loss ������−1 ������������������ = Profit and loss of portfolio. ������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ − ������������,������ ������=1 ������ ������ ������−1 ������������������ = ������������������,������ = ������������������������,������ − ������������������������,������ − ������������,������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=������ ������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i. ������������������������,������ = Ending market value of asset class i. ������������������������,������ = Beginning market value of asset class i. ������������,������,������ = Cash flow of asset class i at t. Same formulas apply for the benchmark n = Number of asset classes. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 20
  • 21. IRR Attribution Calculation of the average invested capital (1/3) ������������������ ������������������������ = Average invested capital of portfolio. ������������������������ = ������������������������ ������������������,������ ������������������������,������ = Average invested capital of asset class i. ������������������������,������ = ������������������������,������ ������������������������,������ = IRR of asset class i. Basic idea: Within the IRR framework every cash flow series can be transferred to a cash flow series consisting of two cash flows - the cash inflow at the beginning of the investment period and a cash outflow at the end of the investment period. For such a cash flow series the average invested capital is equal to the cash inflow at the beginning of the investment period. Same formulas apply for the benchmark Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 21
  • 22. IRR Attribution Calculation of the average invested capital (2a/3) 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 - 100.00 = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00 + 157.50 P&L = + 12.50 and IRR = 5.00% 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 - 100.00 = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00 + 157.50 Compounded with cost of * (1 + 5.00%) capital - here equals IRR - 47.25 - 100.00 + 110.25 * (- 1) / (1 + 5.00%)^2 IRR = 5.00% Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 22
  • 23. IRR Attribution Calculation of the average invested capital (2b/3) 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 - 100.00 P&L = + 10.25 * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1 12.50 / 10.25 = 1.2195... - 121.95 P&L = + 12.50 * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 23
  • 24. IRR Attribution Calculation of the average invested capital (2c/3) 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 - 100.00 = + 5.00 - 50.00 = - 45.00 + 157.50 - 100.00 +105.00 + 5.00 / (1 + 5.00%)^1 + 4.76 0.00 -50.00 - 47.62 / (1 + 5.00%)^1 + 52.50 - 142.86 + 157.50 * (- 1) * (1 + 5.00%)^2 - 1 Remark: 142.86 is not the "correct" AIC for the relevant cash flow stream as the P&L is not 12.50 but instead 14.64. The difference is due to the interest costs or earnings of the interim cash flows - here for the first period (- 0.24 and + 2.38). Interpretations: One could have earned absolute 2.14 more if 45.00 where also available for investment in the first period (increasing AIC from 121.95 to 142.86). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 24
  • 25. IRR Attribution Calculation of the average invested capital (3/3) 1 12.50 12.50 ������������������������ = 2−1 = = 121.95 ⟺ 1 + 5.00% 10.25% 2 10.25 10.25 ������������������������ = 2−1 = = 100.00 1 + 5.00% 10.25% 1 2 ������������1 ������ ������������2 ������ 1 2 ������������1 ������ ������������������������ = ������������������������ ⟺ 1 = 2 ⟺ ������������������������ = ������������������������ × 2 ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������ In absolute terms the average invested capital (AIC) of the two cash flow streams (the original and the transferred one) are not identical but the AIC as well as the absolute profit and loss are multiples of each other driven by the ratio between the different P&L figures. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 25
  • 26. IRR Attribution Calculation of the contribution to the IRR for the portfolio ������ ������ ������ ������������������ ������������������,������ ������������������������,������ ������������������������ = = = × ������������������������,������ = ������������������,������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������������������,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i. It is important to note that the average invested capital of the total portfolio does not have to be equal to the sum of the average invested capitals of all asset classes (due to the different implicit reinvestment assumptions). ������ ������������������������ ≤ ������������ = ������������ ≥ ������������������������,������ ������=1 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 26
  • 27. IRR Attribution Calculation of the contribution to the IRR for the benchmark ������ ������ ������ ������������������ ������������������,������ ������������������������,������ ������������������������ = = = × ������������������������,������ = ������������������,������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������������������,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i. ������������������ = Profit and loss of benchmark. ������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i. ������������������������ = Average invested capital of benchmark. ������������������������,������ = Average invested capital of asset class i. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 27
  • 28. IRR Attribution Calculation of the contribution to the excess IRR ������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ = ������������������,������ − ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������ ������ ������ ������ ������������������������,������ ������������������������,������ ������������������,������ ������������������,������ ������������������������������ = × ������������������������,������ − × ������������������������,������ = − ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 28
  • 29. IRR Attribution IRR attribution Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 29
  • 30. IRR Attribution Third and last step towards IRR attribution Here the excess IRR is decomposed according to the Brinson, Hood and Beebower return attribution methodology and therefore split up into the asset allocation effect, stock picking effect and interaction effect. ������ ������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������ = ������������������������ + ������������������������ + ������������������������ = ������������������������,������ + ������������������������,������ + ������������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������ = Asset allocation effect of portfolio. ������������������������,������ = Asset allocation effect of asset class i. ������������������������ = Stock picking effect of portfolio. ������������������������,������ = Stock picking effect of asset class i. ������������������������ = Interaction effect of portfolio. ������������������������,������ = Interaction effect of asset class i. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 30
  • 31. IRR Attribution Simple framework for IRR attribution (1/5) Selection Actual Passive Quadrant II IRR of notional Actual Quadrant IV portfolio 1 Asset Allocation IRR of actual portfolio => active asset allocation portfolio Quadrant III Passive IRR of notional Quadrant I portfolio 2 IRR of benchmark => active stock picking portfolio Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 31
  • 32. IRR Attribution Simple framework for IRR attribution (2/5) Quadrant IV represents the IRR of the Quadrant II represents the IRR of the actual portfolio which reflects all passive notional portfolio 1 which reflects the active and active investment management asset allocation of the portfolio assuming no decisions. The calculation of the IRR of stock picking. The calculation of the IRR of the actual portfolio is based on the actual the notional portfolio 1 is based on the actual weights of the asset classes - expressed weights of the asset classes - expressed as as cash flows - and the respective actual cash flows - and the respective passive returns. index returns. Quadrant III represents the IRR of the Quadrant I represents the IRR of the notional portfolio 2 which reflects the benchmark. The calculation of the IRR of the active stock picking of the portfolio benchmark is based on the passive weights assuming no active asset allocation. The of the asset classes - expressed as cash calculation of the IRR of the notional flows - and the respective passive index portfolio 2 is based on the passive returns. weights of the asset classes - expressed as cash flows - and the respective actual returns. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 32
  • 33. IRR Attribution Simple framework for IRR attribution (3/5) ������ ������ ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������������1 − ������������������������ = ������������������������1,������ − ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������������1 = IRR of notional portfolio 1. ������������������������1,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i. ������ ������ ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������������2 − ������������������������ = ������������������������2,������ − ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������������2 = IRR of notional portfolio 2. ������������������������2,������ = Contribution to IRR of asset class i. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 33
  • 34. IRR Attribution Simple framework for IRR attribution (4/5) ������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������ + ������������������������������������������������ ������ ������������������������ = ������������������������ − ������������������������������2 − ������������������������������1 + ������������������������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������������������������ = ������������������,������ − ������������������������2,������ − ������������������������1,������ + ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 34
  • 35. IRR Attribution Simple framework for IRR attribution (5/5) On an asset class level: ������������������������,������ = ������������������������1,������ − ������������������,������ ������������������������,������ = ������������������������2,������ − ������������������,������ ������������������������,������ = ������������������,������ − ������������������������2,������ − ������������������������1,������ + ������������������,������ Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 35
  • 36. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 36
  • 37. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Assumptions (1/8)  Sample multi-asset class portfolio is investing in two asset classes A and B.  Relevant benchmark is also investing in these two asset classes A and B.  The portfolio as well the benchmark are rebalanced on a yearly basis at the beginning of the calendar year.  A two year period from 31.12.2006 until 31.12.2008 is considered.  At the beginning of 2007 EUR 150 are invested in the portfolio.  At the beginning of 2008 additional EUR 100 are invested into the portfolio according to the then current active asset allocation and stock pickings. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 37
  • 38. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Return calculations (2a/8) Actual Portfolio (IRR) Period 1 Period 2 Dates 31.12.2006 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at beginning Market value at the end of period of period of period Asset A -75.0 47.6 36.7 Asset B -75.0 -147.6 240.8 Portfolio -150.0 -100.0 277.5 Actual weights at Actual weights at Weights at the end of beginning of period beginning of period period Asset A 50.0% 15.0% 13.2% Asset B 50.0% 85.0% 86.8% Portfolio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Actual return Actual return Cummulative return Asset A 15.0% -5.0% 17.9% Asset B -5.0% 10.0% 12.4% Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow Portfolio 5.0% 7.8% 13.8% (outflow). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 38
  • 39. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Return calculations (2b/8) Actual Portfolio (IRR) Period 1 Period 2 Dates 31.12.2006 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at beginning Market value at the end of period of period of period Asset A -75.0 47.6 36.7 Asset B -75.0 -147.6 240.8 Portfolio -150.0 -100.0 277.5 Actual weights at Actual weights at Weights at the end of beginning of period beginning of period period Asset A 50.0% 75 15.0% + 15% − 15% × 150 × 1 + 5% + 100 × 1 13.2% Asset B 50.0% 85.0% = 86.25 − 15% × 157.5 + 100 86.8% Portfolio 100.0% 100.0% = 86.25 − 38.625 = 47.625 100.0% Actual return Actual return Cummulative return Asset A 15.0% -5.0% 17.9% Asset B -5.0% 10.0% 12.4% Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow Portfolio 5.0% 7.8% 13.8% (outflow). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 39
  • 40. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Return calculations (3/8) Benchmark (IRR) Period 1 Period 2 Dates 31.12.2006 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at beginning Market value at the end of period of period of period Asset A -45.0 -39.5 83.0 Asset B -105.0 -60.6 167.2 Portfolio -150.0 -100.0 250.2 Passive weights at Passive weights at Weights at the end of beginning of period beginning of period period Asset A 30.0% 30.0% 33.2% Asset B 70.0% 70.0% 66.8% Portfolio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Passive return Passive return Cummulative return Asset A -20.0% 10.0% -2.2% Asset B 10.0% -5.0% 1.3% Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow Portfolio 1.0% -0.5% 0.1% (outflow). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 40
  • 41. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Return calculations (4/8) Notional Portfolio 1 (IRR) Period 1 Period 2 Dates 31.12.2006 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at beginning Market value at the end of period of period of period Asset A -75.0 23.6 40.0 Asset B -75.0 -123.6 195.8 Portfolio -150.0 -100.0 235.8 Actual weights at Actual weights at Weights at the end of beginning of period beginning of period period Asset A 50.0% 15.0% 17.0% Asset B 50.0% 85.0% 83.0% Portfolio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Passive return Passive return Cummulative return Asset A -20.0% 10.0% -18.2% Asset B 10.0% -5.0% -2.0% Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow Portfolio -5.0% -2.8% -7.0% (outflow). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 41
  • 42. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Return calculations (5/8) Notional Portfolio 2 (IRR) Period 1 Period 2 Dates 31.12.2006 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at beginning Investment at the end of of period of period period Asset A -45.0 -23.7 71.7 Asset B -105.0 -76.3 193.7 Portfolio -150.0 -100.0 265.3 Passive weights at Passive weights at Weights at the end of beginning of period beginning of period period Asset A 30.0% 30.0% 27.0% Asset B 70.0% 70.0% 73.0% Portfolio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Actual return Actual return Cummulative return Asset A 15.0% -5.0% 5.2% Asset B -5.0% 10.0% 8.7% Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow Portfolio 1.0% 5.5% 7.7% (outflow). Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 42
  • 43. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Management effects (6/8) Actual Portfolio (IRR) P&L AIC IRR RC Asset A 9.3 52.1 17.9% 4.7% Asset B 18.1 146.8 12.4% 9.1%  Portfolio 27.5 198.4 13.8% 13.8% Benchmark (IRR) P&L AIC IRR RC Asset A -1.5 64.9 -2.2% -0.7% Asset B 1.7 135.2 1.3% 0.8% Portfolio 0.2 200.1 0.1% 0.1% Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 43
  • 44. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Management effects (7/8) Notional Portfolio 1 (IRR) P&L AIC IRR RC Asset A -11.4 62.6 -18.2% -5.7% Asset B -2.8 137.2 -2.0% -1.4% Portfolio -14.2 201.0 -7.0% -7.0% Notional Portfolio 2 (IRR) P&L AIC IRR RC Asset A 3.0 56.7 5.2% 1.5% Asset B 12.4 142.4 8.7% 6.2% Portfolio 15.3 199.1 7.7% 7.7% Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 44
  • 45. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Management effects (8a/8) Remark: Here high IAE due to the big shifts. in the asset allocation. IRR-Attribution AAE SPE IAE Total Asset A -4.9% 2.2% 8.1% 5.4% Asset B -2.2% 5.4% 5.2% 8.3% Portfolio -7.2% 7.6% 13.3% 13.7% Remark: IRR figures are consistent with the absolute profit & loss figures – see Profit and Loss Attribution appendix. AAE SPE IAE Total Asset A -9.9 4.4 16.2 10.8 Asset B -4.5 10.7 10.3 16.4 Portfolio -14.4 15.1 26.5 27.2 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 45
  • 46. IRR Attribution Hypothetical example – Management effects (8b/8) IRR-Attribution AAE SPE IAE Total Asset A -4.9% 2.2% 8.1% 5.4% Asset B -2.2% 5.4% 5.2% 8.3% Portfolio -7.2% 7.6% 13.3% 13.7% Profit and Loss Attribution AAE SPE IAE Total Asset A -9.9 ������������������������14.4 ������������������ = −11.4 − −1.5 = 10.8 − 16.2 −9.9 Asset B -4.5 10.7 10.3 16.4 Portfolio -14.4 15.1 26.5 27.2 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 46
  • 47. IRR Attribution Simple example for an IRR implementation Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 47
  • 48. IRR Attribution Simple example for an IRR implementation (1/3) before cash flow Asset allocation in % 31.12.2009 31.03.2010 30.06.2010 30.09.2010 31.12.2010 Cash - 99.50 99.00 98.51 98.01 Bonds - 618.00 624.18 314.45 308.17 Equities - 255.00 234.60 918.06 1'009.87 Total portfolio - 972.50 957.78 1'331.02 1'416.05 Cash flows 31.12.2009 31.03.2010 30.06.2010 30.09.2010 31.12.2010 Cash 100.00 - - - - Bonds 600.00 - -300.00 - - Equities 300.00 - 600.00 - - Total portfolio 1'000.00 - 300.00 - - Asset allocation in % 31.12.2009 31.03.2010 30.06.2010 30.09.2010 31.12.2010 after cash flow Cash 100.00 99.50 99.00 98.51 98.01 Bonds 600.00 618.00 324.18 314.45 308.17 Equities 300.00 255.00 834.60 918.06 1'009.87 Total portfolio 1'000.00 972.50 1'257.78 1'331.02 1'416.05 Investment returns 31.12.2009 31.03.2010 30.06.2010 30.09.2010 31.12.2010 Cash -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% Bonds 3.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% Equities -15.00% -8.00% 10.00% 10.00% Total portfolio -2.75% -1.51% 5.82% 6.39% Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 48
  • 49. IRR Attribution Simple example for an IRR implementation (2/3) Remark: negative (positive) cash flow means cash inflow (outflow). Cash flows for IRR 31.12.2009 31.03.2010 30.06.2010 30.09.2010 31.12.2010 Cash -100.00 - - - 98.01 Bonds -600.00 - 300.00 - 308.17 Equities -300.00 - -600.00 - 1'009.87 Total portfolio -1'000.00 - -300.00 - 1'416.05 Profit & Loss TWR Timing effect IRR Contribution to IRR Cash -1.99 -1.99% 0.00% -1.99% -0.17% Bonds 8.17 -1.11% 2.93% 1.82% 0.71% Equities 109.87 -5.38% 24.01% 18.63% 9.57% Total portfolio 116.05 7.83% 2.28% 10.11% 10.11% Investment Reporting based on TWR shows wondrous results:  Negative TWR but absolute profit for bonds and equities.  Negative TWRs for all asset classes but positive TWR for the total portfolio.  … Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 49
  • 50. IRR Attribution Simple example for an IRR implementation (3/3) 30% 25% 20% 15% TWR 10% Timing effect IRR 5% 0% -5% -10% Cash Bonds Equities Total portfolio Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 50
  • 51. IRR Attribution Critical aspects Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 51
  • 52. IRR Attribution Critical aspects  Unrealistic (re-)investment assumption: => explicit / realistic (re-)investment assumptions (MIRR).  Multiple solutions for IRR: => explicit / realistic (re-)investment assumptions.  IRR for benchmarks: => public market equivalent (PME) used in private equity industry.  Peer group comparison: => IRR not designed for peer analysis.  Risk measurement: => IRR not designed for dispersion analytics.  Implied interim asset values differ from true interim asset value => IRR is designed as an average return for the reporting period.  ... Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 52
  • 53. IRR Attribution Comments and questions Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 53
  • 54. IRR Attribution Appendix: Profit and loss attribution Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 54
  • 55. IRR Attribution Last step towards profit and loss attribution Here the excess profit and loss is decomposed according to the Brinson, Hood and Beebower return attribution methodology and therefore split up into the asset allocation effect, stock picking effect and interaction effect. ������������������������ = ������������������ − ������������������ = ������������������������������ + ������������������������������ + ������������������������������ ������ ������ ������ = ������������������������������,������ + ������������������������������,������ + ������������������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������������ = Profit and loss of portfolio due to asset allocation. ������������������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i due to asset allocation. ������������������������������ = Profit and loss of portfolio due to stock picking. ������������������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i due to stock picking. ������������������������������ = Profit and loss of portfolio due to interaction. ������������������������������,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i due to interaction. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 55
  • 56. IRR Attribution Simple framework for profit and loss attribution (1/5) Selection Actual Passive Quadrant II P&L of notional Actual Quadrant IV portfolio 1 Asset Allocation P&L of actual portfolio => active asset allocation portfolio Quadrant III Passive P&L of notional Quadrant I portfolio 2 P&L of benchmark => active stock picking portfolio Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 56
  • 57. IRR Attribution Simple framework for profit and loss attribution (2/5) Quadrant IV represents the P&L of the Quadrant II represents the P&L of the actual portfolio which reflects all passive notional portfolio 1 which reflects the active and active investment management asset allocation of the portfolio assuming no decisions. The calculation of the P&L of stock picking. The calculation of the P&L of the actual portfolio is based on the actual the notional portfolio 1 is based on the actual weights of the asset classes - expressed weights of the asset classes - expressed as as cash flows - and the respective actual cash flows - and the respective passive returns. index returns. Quadrant III represents the P&L of the Quadrant I represents the P&L of the notional portfolio 2 which reflects the benchmark. The calculation of the P&L of active stock picking of the portfolio the benchmark is based on the passive assuming no active asset allocation. The weights of the asset classes - expressed as calculation of the P&L of the notional cash flows - and the respective passive portfolio 2 is based on the passive index returns. weights of the asset classes - expressed as cash flows - and the respective actual returns. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 57
  • 58. IRR Attribution Simple framework for profit and loss attribution (3/5) ������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������1 − ������������������ = ������������������������1,������ − ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������1 = Profit and loss of notional portfolio 1. ������������������������1,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i. ������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������ = ������������������������2 − ������������������ = ������������������������2,������ − ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������������������������2 = Profit and loss of notional portfolio 2. ������������������������2,������ = Profit and loss of asset class i. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 58
  • 59. IRR Attribution Simple framework for profit and loss attribution (4/5) ������������������������������ = ������������������������������������������������ ������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������������ − ������������������������������������������������ ������������ + ������������������������������������������������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������ − ������������������������2 − ������������������������1 + ������������������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������������������������������ = ������������������,������ − ������������������������2,������ − ������������������������1,������ + ������������������,������ ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 ������=1 Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 59
  • 60. IRR Attribution Simple framework for profit and loss attribution (5/5) On an asset class level: AAPLP,i = PLNP1,i − PLB,i SPPLP,i = PLNP2,i − PLB,i IAPLP,i = PLP,i − PLNP2,i − PLNP1,i + PLB,i Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 60
  • 61. References Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 61
  • 62. IRR Attribution References  “Determinants of Portfolio Performance”; in: Financial Analysts Journal; July 1986; by G. Brinson, R. Hood & G. Beebower.  “Investment Performance Measurement”; by Bruce J. Feibel.  “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return”; in: Journal of Performance Measurement; Summer 2003; page 42-50; by Stefan J. Illmer and Wolfgang Marty.  “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return”; at the Performance Attribution Risk Management 11th Annual; 5th of November 2003; by Stefan J. Illmer.  “Decomposing the Money-Weighted Rate of Return - an Update”; in: Journal of Performance Measurement; Fall 2009; page 22-29; by Stefan J. Illmer. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 62
  • 63. Contact details and disclaimer Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 63
  • 64. Contact details Illmer Investment Performance Consulting AG Weinbergstrasse 28 CH - 8200 Schaffhausen Switzerland www.iipc-ag.com Dr. Stefan Joachim Illmer Tel. +41 / 79 / 962 20 37 Email: stefan.illmer@iipc-ag.com Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 64
  • 65. Disclaimer This document was produced by Illmer Investment Performance Consulting AG (hereafter "IIPC- AG") with the greatest of care and to the best of its knowledge and belief. However, IIPC-AG provides no guarantee with regard to its content and completeness and does not accept any liability for losses which might arise from making use of this information. This document is provided for information purposes only and is for the exclusive use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or banking services. It is expressly not intended for persons who, due to their nationality or place of residence, are not permitted access to such information under local law. Illmer Produced by: Dr. Stefan J. Illmer IIPC Investment Performance Consulting AG Success through excellence! Date: November 2011 - Slide 65