This assessment is the seventh version of a recurring analysis of Iran’s nuclear program. This product is an exposition of the technical data contained in numerous International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports informed by the discussions of experts in the field of nuclear proliferation. It is a work in progress in that it will be revised continuously based on new information from the IAEA reports and other sources and on feedback from readers. We welcome your informed commentary on the technical considerations presented in this document. Please send your comments, with references to source-date or documentation, to INP@aei.org.
For more on Iran's nuclear program, visit www.irantracker.org.
The document discusses the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement between Iran, P5+1 countries, and the EU to resolve the international community's concerns with Iran's nuclear program. It outlines the key points of the deal, including extending Iran's breakout time to develop a nuclear weapon to at least one year and allowing the lifting of sanctions in exchange for restrictions and transparency on Iran's nuclear activities. The economic and geopolitical impacts are debated, with supporters believing it will benefit global oil prices and security, while critics like Netanyahu argue it threatens Israel's security.
The document provides information about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's nuclear program. It summarizes that the deal cuts off all of Iran's potential pathways to develop a nuclear weapon by reducing its centrifuges and stockpile of enriched uranium. It establishes a rigorous inspections regime to verify compliance. Sanctions can be reimposed if Iran violates the agreement. The deal is supported by U.S. allies and most of the international community as the best way to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.
The document summarizes the Iran Nuclear Deal. It provides background on Iran's nuclear program and the sanctions imposed by the international community. It then describes the key terms of the 2015 deal, including limits on centrifuges and enrichment levels. It notes that the deal was reached to ensure Iran's program would remain peaceful. However, in 2018, US President Trump withdrew the US from the deal, reimposing sanctions on Iran and concerning European allies who wanted to preserve the agreement. The withdrawal impacted oil prices and international relations. Possible solutions discussed include renegotiating the deal or pursuing diplomatic and political approaches.
Future of iran nuclear deal after withdraw of usaShaon Sikder
Analyzing future and current situaation of Iran Nuclear Deal also known as JCPOA after withdrawl of Trump Administration.
We have done this for our term paper following course International Politics or World politics.
This document discusses the evolution of strategic studies from a traditional military focus to a broader conception of security. It defines strategy as how goals are achieved under uncertain conditions. Traditional strategy referred to military operations, but after World Wars I and II, security grew to encompass all state resources and interests. The Cold War saw proxy wars and an arms race as core powers pursued security. 9/11 created new threats like terrorism that require non-military strategies. Strategic studies now considers a broader range of factors, including human nature, international anarchy, and ethics, compared to realism's narrow focus on conflict and force.
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens. For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies.
Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
Multiple constants & variables determine the foreign policy of a country; This presentation attempts to explain those determinants
Its word version is available on my website mentioned above. You will find many other articles and presentations there
This document discusses deterrence theory, which gained prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War regarding nuclear weapons. Deterrence is intended to dissuade an adversary from taking action by threatening reprisal or preventing them from acting against another state's desires. It is based on psychological concepts and gaining credibility for effective deterrence. The document outlines different types of deterrence such as denial and punishment, and discusses assumptions and concepts like rationality and mutual vulnerability in deterrence strategy.
1) A nation's foreign policy is determined by both domestic and international factors. Domestically, factors include a country's culture, history, geography, economic strength, and political system.
2) Internationally, the structure of the international system, international laws and organizations, military alliances, and relative military powers all influence a country's foreign policy choices.
3) A country's foreign policy consists of defining its national interests and desired outcomes, and determining strategies and resources to pursue these interests in interactions with other states.
The document discusses the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement between Iran, P5+1 countries, and the EU to resolve the international community's concerns with Iran's nuclear program. It outlines the key points of the deal, including extending Iran's breakout time to develop a nuclear weapon to at least one year and allowing the lifting of sanctions in exchange for restrictions and transparency on Iran's nuclear activities. The economic and geopolitical impacts are debated, with supporters believing it will benefit global oil prices and security, while critics like Netanyahu argue it threatens Israel's security.
The document provides information about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's nuclear program. It summarizes that the deal cuts off all of Iran's potential pathways to develop a nuclear weapon by reducing its centrifuges and stockpile of enriched uranium. It establishes a rigorous inspections regime to verify compliance. Sanctions can be reimposed if Iran violates the agreement. The deal is supported by U.S. allies and most of the international community as the best way to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.
The document summarizes the Iran Nuclear Deal. It provides background on Iran's nuclear program and the sanctions imposed by the international community. It then describes the key terms of the 2015 deal, including limits on centrifuges and enrichment levels. It notes that the deal was reached to ensure Iran's program would remain peaceful. However, in 2018, US President Trump withdrew the US from the deal, reimposing sanctions on Iran and concerning European allies who wanted to preserve the agreement. The withdrawal impacted oil prices and international relations. Possible solutions discussed include renegotiating the deal or pursuing diplomatic and political approaches.
Future of iran nuclear deal after withdraw of usaShaon Sikder
Analyzing future and current situaation of Iran Nuclear Deal also known as JCPOA after withdrawl of Trump Administration.
We have done this for our term paper following course International Politics or World politics.
This document discusses the evolution of strategic studies from a traditional military focus to a broader conception of security. It defines strategy as how goals are achieved under uncertain conditions. Traditional strategy referred to military operations, but after World Wars I and II, security grew to encompass all state resources and interests. The Cold War saw proxy wars and an arms race as core powers pursued security. 9/11 created new threats like terrorism that require non-military strategies. Strategic studies now considers a broader range of factors, including human nature, international anarchy, and ethics, compared to realism's narrow focus on conflict and force.
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens. For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies.
Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
Multiple constants & variables determine the foreign policy of a country; This presentation attempts to explain those determinants
Its word version is available on my website mentioned above. You will find many other articles and presentations there
This document discusses deterrence theory, which gained prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War regarding nuclear weapons. Deterrence is intended to dissuade an adversary from taking action by threatening reprisal or preventing them from acting against another state's desires. It is based on psychological concepts and gaining credibility for effective deterrence. The document outlines different types of deterrence such as denial and punishment, and discusses assumptions and concepts like rationality and mutual vulnerability in deterrence strategy.
1) A nation's foreign policy is determined by both domestic and international factors. Domestically, factors include a country's culture, history, geography, economic strength, and political system.
2) Internationally, the structure of the international system, international laws and organizations, military alliances, and relative military powers all influence a country's foreign policy choices.
3) A country's foreign policy consists of defining its national interests and desired outcomes, and determining strategies and resources to pursue these interests in interactions with other states.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty aims to prohibit all nuclear explosions, for both civilian and military purposes, in all environments. It establishes a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing to help maintain global nuclear nonproliferation and ultimately achieve a nuclear-weapon-free world. While not yet entered into force, the treaty has been signed by most countries and its verification regime has been established to monitor for any nuclear explosions that would violate the treaty.
Lecture no. 10 foreign policy, models of decision making, and domestic influ...Dildar Ali
Foreign policy is how a state interacts with other states and international actors. It is influenced by both internal factors like a country's geography, leadership, and public opinion, as well as external factors like the international system and other states. The foreign policy process involves decision making, which can follow rational, organizational, or bargaining models. Individual leaders and groups also influence decisions through psychological biases or pursuing their interests. A country's diplomats, interest groups, public, military, and legislature all shape its foreign policy choices.
Future challenges to international securityParas Bhutto
The document outlines several structural challenges to international security, including terrorism, cyberterrorism, nuclear proliferation, China's rise, the crisis in the Middle East, corruption, and climate change. It provides details on each challenge, such as how terrorism is difficult to define but has been an effective tactic, how cyberterrorism allows terrorists to wage war in cyberspace, and how climate change will cause global instability and pressure on resources. The conclusion states that the current rapid rate of change outpaces human and state abilities to cope, putting pressure on nation states and potentially fueling issues like terrorism.
The document discusses issues related to Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs. For Iran, it outlines the country's history of nuclear development since the 1950s under the Shah, the suspension after the 1979 revolution, and renewed activities. It describes international sanctions and the 2015 nuclear deal, as well as US opposition. For North Korea, it provides background on the country's division after WWII and tensions with the US. It notes North Korea's nuclear tests and the goal of reunification amidst the crisis.
This document provides an overview of the evolution and dimensions of nuclear strategy and deterrence theory. It discusses key concepts of deterrence, how deterrence differs from compellence, and whether deterrence can stop nuclear weapons. It examines how NATO uses deterrence and whether NATO acts as a deterrent to Russia. The document also outlines four waves of deterrence research and suggests a potential fifth wave is emerging to address today's strategic challenges. It previews the themes that will be covered in the course, including historical, conceptual, and non-Western perspectives on deterrence against state and non-state actors across different instruments and domains.
This document provides summaries of several key thinkers in classical geopolitics, including Friedrich Ratzel, Frederick Jackson Turner, Friedrich Naumann, Rudolf Kjellen, and Halford MacKinder. It discusses their major theories and concepts. Ratzel introduced ideas of states expanding their Lebensraum (living space) and saw Germany needing access to the sea for trade and naval power. Turner's frontier thesis argued the frontier shaped America's character. Naumann proposed a Central Europe bloc dominated by Germany. Kjellen built on Ratzel's work and emphasized German racial and cultural superiority. MacKinder theorized about the geopolitical heartland of Eurasia and periods of land and sea power influencing global control.
Power, Capability and instruments of Foreign PolicyFaryalMustaqeem
This document discusses key concepts related to foreign policy including power, capability, and instruments of foreign policy. It defines foreign policy as a government's strategy for dealing with other nations and outlines its goals of safeguarding national interests. The document also defines power, capability, and instruments commonly used in foreign policy such as diplomacy, military policies, foreign aid, and trade. National interests and the balance of power are also discussed as important factors that influence a country's formulation of foreign policy.
Foreign policy involves the US working with other countries on economics and ideas. The president can make foreign policy by responding to foreign events or making policy statements. Congress can influence foreign policy through informal advice or legislative pressure. The Truman Doctrine pleaded with Congress to assist Greece and Turkey during a time of need, encouraging Americans to help other countries. NATO protects peace between the US and other nations, working in Afghanistan for many years. The UN and World Hunger Organization work to better conditions globally and assist in missions like those in Afghanistan. Foreign policy affects American citizens personally when soldiers fight abroad, worrying their families.
The Communist Party of China plays a central role in making Chinese foreign policy. Key decision making bodies include the Politburo Standing Committee, which has 7 members each overseeing a specific portfolio, and the State Council. The General Secretary of the Communist Party, who is also the head of the military, oversees foreign policy. Foreign policy decisions also involve the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and State Council, though the military and security apparatus can be more influential at times. Decision making aims to achieve consensus among political elites in Beijing.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable advising which tools are best for cutting trees or shaving without proper context and safety considerations.
strategic studies and international relationsTallat Satti
This document discusses the history and development of security studies as a sub-discipline of international relations. It covers the key assumptions and paradigms of security studies, including the realist, rationalist, and revolutionary traditions. The document then outlines the periodization of security studies, covering developments from the inter-war period through post-Cold War debates around conceptualizing security. Key topics discussed include the rise of nuclear weapons and deterrence theory, declines in security studies during détente, and expanding notions of security to include human and environmental dimensions.
The Bush era has seen remarkable change in the US foreign policy. After 9/ 11 attacks, President Bush (the son) initiated the Bush Doctrine and started his war on terror which had such implications as the invasion of Afghanistan in 2011, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The document summarizes the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), including its history, objectives, and verification regime. Key points include:
1) The CTBT prohibits all nuclear explosions, for both military and peaceful purposes. It was adopted by the UN in 1996 but has not entered into force due to some nations not ratifying it.
2) The CTBT establishes an international monitoring system to detect nuclear tests using seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide technologies. It also provides for on-site inspections and mechanisms for resolving compliance issues.
3) For the CTBT to enter into force, it must be ratified by 44 specific nations that
This document provides definitions and descriptions of diplomacy. It defines diplomacy as the management of international relations through negotiation between representatives of states. It discusses the functions of diplomacy, including representation, negotiation, obtaining information, reporting, and protecting national interests. It also describes different types of diplomacy, such as political diplomacy, military diplomacy, and cultural diplomacy.
Foreign policy involves a state using political influence to induce other states to exercise their lawmaking power in a way that benefits the influencing state. It aims to protect territorial integrity and citizen interests both within and outside the state. Additionally, foreign policy seeks to maintain international links through policies of conflict or cooperation to promote national interests like security, self-preservation, and economic and political goals. A country's foreign policy is determined by internal factors like geography, culture, economic strength, and political structures as well as external factors like the international power structure, organizations, alliances, and world public opinion.
Introduction to strategic studies & key concepts 2013 1bakri303
Strategic studies concerns the use of force as an instrument of state policy, deriving from Clausewitz's notion of strategy as "the use of engagement for the purpose of war." Traditionally, strategic studies focused on how wars start and are fought efficiently. However, recent thinkers argue that strategic studies embodies using military power to achieve political objectives and involves coordinating all national resources toward goals. Strategic studies is interdisciplinary and draws from fields like politics, economics, and social sciences. It remains important because war is still a serious matter and military power influences international politics, though critics argue it is too state-centric and does not consider ethical issues.
The United Nations has historically engaged in three phases of peacekeeping: early observer missions beginning in 1948, a post-Cold War surge in the 1990s, and present-day operations. UN peacekeeping has evolved from traditional unarmed observer missions monitoring ceasefires to more robust Chapter VII operations permitted to use force to defend mandates and civilians. Currently, over 100,000 UN peacekeepers from 124 contributor countries are deployed globally in various operations focused on conflict prevention, stabilization, peace agreement implementation, and transition of states to stable governance. However, peacekeeping also faces limitations like constraints on use of force and shortages of resources.
oBJECTIVE
to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology
to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy
to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.
The document discusses Pakistan's foreign policy and geostrategic environment. It notes that Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by factors like its geography, regional environment, economy, and rivalry with India. While India poses a security threat, opportunities exist from China's CPEC investment and NATO withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan aims to balance relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, diversify its economy beyond CPEC, and play a role in Afghan reconciliation talks.
This assessment is the eighth version of a recurring analysis of Iran’s nuclear program. This product is an exposition of the technical data contained in numerous International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports informed by the discussions of experts in the field of nuclear proliferation. It is a work in progress in that it will be revised continuously based on new information from the IAEA reports and other sources and on feedback from readers. We welcome your informed commentary on the technical considerations presented in this document. Please send your comments, with references to source-date or documentation, to INP@aei.org.
All the information you need to know about the Iran nuclear deal and the effect that it will have on the country's economy, as well as the impact at a worldwide level.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty aims to prohibit all nuclear explosions, for both civilian and military purposes, in all environments. It establishes a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing to help maintain global nuclear nonproliferation and ultimately achieve a nuclear-weapon-free world. While not yet entered into force, the treaty has been signed by most countries and its verification regime has been established to monitor for any nuclear explosions that would violate the treaty.
Lecture no. 10 foreign policy, models of decision making, and domestic influ...Dildar Ali
Foreign policy is how a state interacts with other states and international actors. It is influenced by both internal factors like a country's geography, leadership, and public opinion, as well as external factors like the international system and other states. The foreign policy process involves decision making, which can follow rational, organizational, or bargaining models. Individual leaders and groups also influence decisions through psychological biases or pursuing their interests. A country's diplomats, interest groups, public, military, and legislature all shape its foreign policy choices.
Future challenges to international securityParas Bhutto
The document outlines several structural challenges to international security, including terrorism, cyberterrorism, nuclear proliferation, China's rise, the crisis in the Middle East, corruption, and climate change. It provides details on each challenge, such as how terrorism is difficult to define but has been an effective tactic, how cyberterrorism allows terrorists to wage war in cyberspace, and how climate change will cause global instability and pressure on resources. The conclusion states that the current rapid rate of change outpaces human and state abilities to cope, putting pressure on nation states and potentially fueling issues like terrorism.
The document discusses issues related to Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs. For Iran, it outlines the country's history of nuclear development since the 1950s under the Shah, the suspension after the 1979 revolution, and renewed activities. It describes international sanctions and the 2015 nuclear deal, as well as US opposition. For North Korea, it provides background on the country's division after WWII and tensions with the US. It notes North Korea's nuclear tests and the goal of reunification amidst the crisis.
This document provides an overview of the evolution and dimensions of nuclear strategy and deterrence theory. It discusses key concepts of deterrence, how deterrence differs from compellence, and whether deterrence can stop nuclear weapons. It examines how NATO uses deterrence and whether NATO acts as a deterrent to Russia. The document also outlines four waves of deterrence research and suggests a potential fifth wave is emerging to address today's strategic challenges. It previews the themes that will be covered in the course, including historical, conceptual, and non-Western perspectives on deterrence against state and non-state actors across different instruments and domains.
This document provides summaries of several key thinkers in classical geopolitics, including Friedrich Ratzel, Frederick Jackson Turner, Friedrich Naumann, Rudolf Kjellen, and Halford MacKinder. It discusses their major theories and concepts. Ratzel introduced ideas of states expanding their Lebensraum (living space) and saw Germany needing access to the sea for trade and naval power. Turner's frontier thesis argued the frontier shaped America's character. Naumann proposed a Central Europe bloc dominated by Germany. Kjellen built on Ratzel's work and emphasized German racial and cultural superiority. MacKinder theorized about the geopolitical heartland of Eurasia and periods of land and sea power influencing global control.
Power, Capability and instruments of Foreign PolicyFaryalMustaqeem
This document discusses key concepts related to foreign policy including power, capability, and instruments of foreign policy. It defines foreign policy as a government's strategy for dealing with other nations and outlines its goals of safeguarding national interests. The document also defines power, capability, and instruments commonly used in foreign policy such as diplomacy, military policies, foreign aid, and trade. National interests and the balance of power are also discussed as important factors that influence a country's formulation of foreign policy.
Foreign policy involves the US working with other countries on economics and ideas. The president can make foreign policy by responding to foreign events or making policy statements. Congress can influence foreign policy through informal advice or legislative pressure. The Truman Doctrine pleaded with Congress to assist Greece and Turkey during a time of need, encouraging Americans to help other countries. NATO protects peace between the US and other nations, working in Afghanistan for many years. The UN and World Hunger Organization work to better conditions globally and assist in missions like those in Afghanistan. Foreign policy affects American citizens personally when soldiers fight abroad, worrying their families.
The Communist Party of China plays a central role in making Chinese foreign policy. Key decision making bodies include the Politburo Standing Committee, which has 7 members each overseeing a specific portfolio, and the State Council. The General Secretary of the Communist Party, who is also the head of the military, oversees foreign policy. Foreign policy decisions also involve the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and State Council, though the military and security apparatus can be more influential at times. Decision making aims to achieve consensus among political elites in Beijing.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable advising which tools are best for cutting trees or shaving without proper context and safety considerations.
strategic studies and international relationsTallat Satti
This document discusses the history and development of security studies as a sub-discipline of international relations. It covers the key assumptions and paradigms of security studies, including the realist, rationalist, and revolutionary traditions. The document then outlines the periodization of security studies, covering developments from the inter-war period through post-Cold War debates around conceptualizing security. Key topics discussed include the rise of nuclear weapons and deterrence theory, declines in security studies during détente, and expanding notions of security to include human and environmental dimensions.
The Bush era has seen remarkable change in the US foreign policy. After 9/ 11 attacks, President Bush (the son) initiated the Bush Doctrine and started his war on terror which had such implications as the invasion of Afghanistan in 2011, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The document summarizes the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), including its history, objectives, and verification regime. Key points include:
1) The CTBT prohibits all nuclear explosions, for both military and peaceful purposes. It was adopted by the UN in 1996 but has not entered into force due to some nations not ratifying it.
2) The CTBT establishes an international monitoring system to detect nuclear tests using seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide technologies. It also provides for on-site inspections and mechanisms for resolving compliance issues.
3) For the CTBT to enter into force, it must be ratified by 44 specific nations that
This document provides definitions and descriptions of diplomacy. It defines diplomacy as the management of international relations through negotiation between representatives of states. It discusses the functions of diplomacy, including representation, negotiation, obtaining information, reporting, and protecting national interests. It also describes different types of diplomacy, such as political diplomacy, military diplomacy, and cultural diplomacy.
Foreign policy involves a state using political influence to induce other states to exercise their lawmaking power in a way that benefits the influencing state. It aims to protect territorial integrity and citizen interests both within and outside the state. Additionally, foreign policy seeks to maintain international links through policies of conflict or cooperation to promote national interests like security, self-preservation, and economic and political goals. A country's foreign policy is determined by internal factors like geography, culture, economic strength, and political structures as well as external factors like the international power structure, organizations, alliances, and world public opinion.
Introduction to strategic studies & key concepts 2013 1bakri303
Strategic studies concerns the use of force as an instrument of state policy, deriving from Clausewitz's notion of strategy as "the use of engagement for the purpose of war." Traditionally, strategic studies focused on how wars start and are fought efficiently. However, recent thinkers argue that strategic studies embodies using military power to achieve political objectives and involves coordinating all national resources toward goals. Strategic studies is interdisciplinary and draws from fields like politics, economics, and social sciences. It remains important because war is still a serious matter and military power influences international politics, though critics argue it is too state-centric and does not consider ethical issues.
The United Nations has historically engaged in three phases of peacekeeping: early observer missions beginning in 1948, a post-Cold War surge in the 1990s, and present-day operations. UN peacekeeping has evolved from traditional unarmed observer missions monitoring ceasefires to more robust Chapter VII operations permitted to use force to defend mandates and civilians. Currently, over 100,000 UN peacekeepers from 124 contributor countries are deployed globally in various operations focused on conflict prevention, stabilization, peace agreement implementation, and transition of states to stable governance. However, peacekeeping also faces limitations like constraints on use of force and shortages of resources.
oBJECTIVE
to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology
to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy
to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.
The document discusses Pakistan's foreign policy and geostrategic environment. It notes that Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by factors like its geography, regional environment, economy, and rivalry with India. While India poses a security threat, opportunities exist from China's CPEC investment and NATO withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan aims to balance relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, diversify its economy beyond CPEC, and play a role in Afghan reconciliation talks.
This assessment is the eighth version of a recurring analysis of Iran’s nuclear program. This product is an exposition of the technical data contained in numerous International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports informed by the discussions of experts in the field of nuclear proliferation. It is a work in progress in that it will be revised continuously based on new information from the IAEA reports and other sources and on feedback from readers. We welcome your informed commentary on the technical considerations presented in this document. Please send your comments, with references to source-date or documentation, to INP@aei.org.
All the information you need to know about the Iran nuclear deal and the effect that it will have on the country's economy, as well as the impact at a worldwide level.
This document discusses economic sanctions and their impact on trade and business through case studies of Iran and Serbia. It begins by outlining the objectives of studying how sanctions have mostly been unsuccessful or produced limited results. It then provides background on economic sanctions and their varying interpretations depending on foreign policy context. The document examines how strategic management practices have allowed some countries like Iran to still conduct trade despite sanctions through methods like foreign subsidiaries. Case studies then detail the heavy economic toll sanctions took on Serbia and Iran, including currency devaluation, rising unemployment, scarcity of goods and medicines in Serbia, and declining oil exports and revenues in Iran. The document aims to show how exceptional management is needed to circumvent sanctions and that they often punish civilians while their
Islamic Republic of Iran - Opportunities and Financial Crime Risks.Aperio Intelligence
The document discusses opportunities and financial crime risks associated with Iran following the lifting of sanctions as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It notes that financial crime such as money laundering and corruption are major issues in Iran's economy and political system. While the lifting of sanctions may open up business opportunities, companies exploring opportunities in Iran will need to exercise due diligence on partners and agents given the risks of ties to the government and involvement in illicit activities. The document provides an overview of typical financial crimes in Iran as well as the country's anti-money laundering efforts and challenges.
Iran is located in the Middle East between Iraq and Pakistan, bordering several bodies of water. It has a population of over 80 million people, most of whom are Persian or Azeri and Muslim. Iran has a unitary Islamic republic government with Tehran as its capital. In foreign relations, Iran maintains ties with most UN members except Israel and the US, and faces international sanctions over its nuclear program.
The document discusses the conflict between the United States and Iran over Iran's nuclear program. It provides background on both countries and outlines some of the key issues in their relationship, including Iran's nuclear program, military tensions, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's alleged support for terrorism, and Iran's downing of a U.S. drone. It then discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran's economy and society, noting Iran's heavy reliance on oil exports and the difficulties sanctions have created. Finally, it presents some current developments, including Iran's election of a more moderate president who has taken steps to ease tensions.
Foreign trade and its importance in the economy of Iran in the international ...Private
Iran is one of the world’s most closely watched nations as a historical entity, about 2.500 years ago, of the Achaemenids Dynasty (559 to 330 BC) period.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (denomination after the revolution in 1979), also know as Persia territory, as historical entity and despite political, religious, and historic dimensions of the society, Iranians maintain a deep connection to their past.
The Iran’s economy is a mirror of the International Community nowadays. Economic policies and decision-making process in economic terms are guests from the international sanctions, particularly the unilateral sanctions from United States of America, which accuse Iran of supporting international terrorism and maintain the nuclear programme as global weapons.
Kinzer et al. (2005: 61) wrote about the impact of sanctions against countries, he said “this isolation has hampered the short and long term growth of its markets, restricted the country´s access to high technology, and impeded foreign investment”.
A form of foreign pressure, sanctions are typically meant to alter the policies of other countries. There is much pessimism on whether they ever work.
The main question, related with this working paper, and we should do is how Iran can trade in the economic global arena, in the contemporary global markets in the sanctions context? Can we found true economic policies in this context and with the contemporary conservative politicians, with the leadership of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, since 2005? Can the economic sanctions destabilize the Iran government, the target of the International Community? Understand the political economy, especially the foreign trade and the impact of the international sanctions in the economy of Iran is the purpose of this paper, with special focus on the United States sanctions, in the line of Marinov (2005).
We using the electronic database of The World Factbook published by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The Statistical Centre of Iran, World Trade Organization, United Nations and European Union, and a qualitative research based in published academic work until 2003.
Key-words: International community; International sanctions; Impacts; Foreign trade; Iran;
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel
The document summarizes security threats across North Africa and the Middle East from June 19, 2018. It discusses how fighting for control of oil ports in Libya risks sparking a broader civil war, Gulf state competition destabilizing Tunisia's democracy, AQAP regaining strength in Yemen as the UAE focuses on other issues, and Salafi-jihadi groups challenging Burkina Faso and expanding their insurgency. It also covers Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria and the potential impacts of a US airstrike killing the TTP leader in Afghanistan.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
Iranian officials may leverage influence over Yemen's al Houthi movement to broker a Yemen ceasefire to mitigate concerns over Iran's regional activities. France brokered a declaration to revive UN-led peace talks in Libya if participants uphold commitments to continue dialogue and set a timeline for elections. Clashes in northern Somalia and a cyclone have displaced populations and may allow al-Shabaab to expand operations.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
The summary of the threat update document is:
1. Iran and Russia are expanding military coordination, including potential use of an Iranian air base by Russian bombers.
2. The incapacitation of an LNA commander in Libya creates a power vacuum that could lead to conflict and allow terrorist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda to rebuild.
3. The Gulf crisis caused the ending of a military cooperation agreement between Somalia and the UAE, weakening counterterrorism efforts against al Shabaab and al Qaeda in the region.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.
2. November 2012 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Findings
Additional Centrifuge Installation
Iran increased its enrichment capacity by installing additional centrifuges at its declared sites between
August and November 2012. The hardened Fordow facility is now at maximum capacity (2,784
centrifuges). Of the 2,784, 696 centrifuges are currently enriching at Fordow and 696 are ready to
begin enriching immediately. The IAEA also noted the addition of first-generation and advanced
centrifuges, the latter undergoing testing, at the Natanz facility.
Increasing Enriched Uranium Stockpiles
Iran continues to produce low- (<5%) and medium-enriched (near 20%) uranium at historically high
rates. It has now allocated roughly 40% of its medium-enriched uranium for conversion to reactor fuel
plates; only a small fraction of the allocated material, however, has been packaged into fuel plates
and placed into a reactor core as of August 2012.
Parchin Facility Inspection
Iran continues to deny the IAEA access to the Parchin facility, where the agency believes Iran
conducted experiments related to nuclear weapons development. The IAEA noted that, even if it is
given access to the site, its ability to “conduct effective verification will have been seriously
undermined” by physical disruption and sanitization undertaken by Iran at the facility in 2012.
Weaponization
Iran continues to stonewall the IAEA regarding its weaponization activities. The agency reiterated its
assessment of Iran’s work on nuclear weapons development: “the information indicates that, prior to
the end of 2003 the activities took place under a structured program; that some continued after 2003;
and that some may still be ongoing.”
Arak Reactor Timeline
Iran told the IAEA that it will begin operating the Arak heavy water reactor later than previously
planned. The reactor, now scheduled for an early 2014 launch, will provide Iran with a separate
pathway to acquiring fissile material for nuclear weapons in the form of weapons-grade plutonium.
Page 2
3. Status of Near-20% Enriched Uranium
Iran has enough near-20% enriched uranium with which to produce weapons-grade
uranium (WGU) for one warhead. Some of this material is currently stored in oxide
powder form, which can be converted back into a gas for weapons-grade enrichment.
NEAR-20% ENRICHED URANIUM
141 kg needed to produce one warhead’s worth of WGU
156 kg produced as of November 2012 IAEA report (see pie chart for breakdown)
151.5 kg available in gas or oxide powder form (allocated for use in fuel plates for Tehran Research Reactor)
3.4 kg 1.1 kg
Converted into U3O8 fuel Enriched down to <4%
plates and placed into or
irradiated in reactor core
(as of August 2012)
52 kg
99.5 kg
Fed into process for
Stored as enriched
conversion to U3O8
uranium gas
(available for WGU
(available now for WGU
production after re-
production)
conversion to gas form)*
Total near-20% enriched
uranium produced: 156 kg
*Methods for converting near-20% material in U3O8 form back into a gas “are standard processes in the nuclear industry and Iran uses them as part of its
uranium ore processing.”1 The conversion can be done using specialized facilities and can be accomplished in “days to weeks.”2 The near-20% LEU can
only be classified as unusable in a breakout once the fuel assemblies containing the U3O8 are inserted and irradiated in a reactor core. Only a small
fraction of Iran’s near-20% LEU in the form of U3O8 has been manufactured into fuel assemblies and placed into or irradiated in a reactor core (3.4 kg).
1) Gregory Jones, “Fueling the Tehran Research Reactor: Technical Considerations on the Risks and Benefits,” NPEC, October 12, 2009.
Page 3
2) Ibid.
5. Nuclear Program Expansion
Iran will likely have enough near-20% enriched uranium to rapidly produce fissile
material for 2 nuclear weapons by late 2013 or early 2014.
Iran has installed many more centrifuges at the hardened Fordow facility than are now
actually spinning, providing a reserve and/or surge capacity that will be difficult for
Israel to destroy.
The installation of 2,088 additional centrifuges at Fordow since summer 2012 gives Iran
the ability to:
produce near-weapons grade uranium (20% enrichment level) in larger quantities
faster, providing rapidly-convertible feedstock for a small arsenal of nuclear
weapons;
convert near-weapons grade uranium into nuclear weapons fuel in a shorter
amount of time.
Iran’s uranium enrichment is at historically high rates despite increasing sanctions and
damage to the Iranian economy.
Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it plans to begin operating
the Arak heavy water reactor in early 2014 (it had previously planned commencement
for mid-to-late 2013). This reactor will be capable of producing two warheads’ worth of
weapons-grade plutonium per year once operational.
Page 5
6. Breakout Timelines
Time needed to produce fuel for 1 nuclear weapon:
Iran needs 3.6 months to produce 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium and 1.9 months to
produce weapons-grade uranium at the buried Fordow and pilot Natanz enrichment
facilities.* It can cut these times significantly using the centrifuges installed but not
yet operating at the Fordow facility.
Iran needs 4-10.5 weeks to produce 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium and 1.5-5 weeks
to produce 15 kg of weapons-grade uranium at the main Natanz enrichment facility.*
The higher end of the range accounts for a three-step conversion process.
Estimates of the time Iran needs to build a nuclear device to use this fissile material are
generally longer than the timelines above.
The existence of undeclared (covert) enrichment sites would have a significant impact
on breakout estimates.
Evidence of significant Iranian enrichment beyond 20% will strongly suggest not only
that the decision to weaponize has been made, but also that the Iranians believe they
have (or will shortly have) a viable warhead.
*All enriched uranium figures are given in terms of solid uranium (where 1 kg uranium hexafluoride is equal to ~0.67 kg
elemental uranium). Estimates assume Natanz and Fordow are used with the operational capacity reflected in the November
2012 IAEA report. Iran may need 15-25 kg of weapons-grade uranium for an implosion-type bomb design depending on its
level of technical ability (high technical ability would require less material). See pages 18, 19, and 22 for further detail. Page 6
7. Iran has outfitted the hardened Fordow enrichment facility with 2,784 IR-1
centrifuges. This expansion gives Iran the capacity to produce near-20%
enriched uranium at a faster rate and the means to convert that stockpile
to weapons-grade uranium (WGU) more rapidly in a deeply buried site.
Time needed to produce WGU Time needed to produce near-
for 1 warhead from near-20% 20% enriched uranium feed
enriched uranium at Fordow for WGU for second warhead*
Using 696 centrifuges
currently enriching 4.7 MONTHS 14 MONTHS
Using 1,392
centrifuges currently
enriching and under 2.4 MONTHS 8.6 MONTHS
vacuum
Using all 2,784
centrifuges available
1.2 MONTHS 4.7 MONTHS
*Assumes constant production of near-20% enriched uranium at smaller pilot facility at Natanz Page 7
18. Scope
This product is an exposition of the technical data contained in numerous
IAEA reports informed by the discussions of experts in the field of nuclear
proliferation. It is a work-in-progress in that it will be revised continuously
based on new information from the IAEA and other sources and on feedback
from readers.
We welcome your informed commentary on the technical considerations
presented in this document. Please send your comments, with references to
source-data or documentation, to INP@AEI.ORG.
This product does NOT contain policy recommendations. It is intended solely
to inform the policy community and the American public about the nature
and progress of the Iranian nuclear program.
This product does NOT assess Iran’s intentions to weaponize or to pursue
breakout scenarios. It is focused entirely on technical feasibility.
Page 18
22. Projections for the February 2013 IAEA Report
IR-1 centrifuges being fed at Natanz FEP: 9,156 (moderate confidence)
Total 3.5% LEU produced at Natanz FEP: 5,567 kg (moderate confidence)*
IR-1 centrifuges being fed for 19.75% enrichment at Natanz and Fordow: 1,024 (low confidence)
Total 19.75% LEU produced at Natanz PFEP and Fordow FEP: 184.8 kg (moderate confidence)*
PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS
3.5% LEU
We previously estimated that Iran would produce an additional 498 kg of 3.5% enriched uranium
at Natanz during the last reporting period. The IAEA reported that Iran produced about 492 kg
3.5% enriched uranium during the period.
19.75% LEU
We previously estimated that Iran would produce an additional 23 kg of 19.75% enriched uranium
at Natanz and Fordow during the last reporting period. The IAEA reported that Iran produced
about 29 kg 19.75% enriched uranium. The error is attributed to timing (our estimate was based
on a November 4 measurement and the actual measurement took place on November 10-11) and
increased production rate per centrifuge at Fordow.
*Assuming IAEA measurement on 11 FEB 2013 Page 22