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Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013

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With one year to go until polling stations open on referendum day, our latest poll for STV News finds no change in voting intention since May. Among those certain to vote in the referendum, 31% would vote Yes if the referendum was held now compared with 59% who would vote No and 10% who are undecided.

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Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013

  1. 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013
  2. 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Independence referendum
  3. 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 30% 57% 14% All ‘Yes’ Change since May +2 31% 59% 10% Certain to vote ‘Yes’ Change since May 0 Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided
  4. 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention – certain to vote Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 31% 59% 10% Certain to vote ‘Yes’ Change since May 0 Yes No Undecided
  5. 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention – recent trend Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Yes No Undecided 59% 31% 10%
  6. 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’ Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 73% (659). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 35% 65% All 34% 66% Certain to vote Yes No Yes No
  7. 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 33% 67% All definitely decided and certain to vote 38% 62% 33% 67% 33% 67% Yes No All definitely decided and certain to vote (Feb-Sep) Yes No No Change since May
  8. 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Floating voters Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 39% 61% All giving a voting intention but may change their mind 35% 31% 34% All undecided – inclined to vote Yes No Yes No Undecided
  9. 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereSupport for independence – long-term trend Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Supportforindependence(%) Introduction of the poll tax in Scotland Devolution referendum Scottish Parliament opens Devolution referendum SNP form minority government SNP form majority government Edinburgh Agreement signed
  10. 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereVoting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 40% 54% 24% 64% 40% Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Men Women % voting Yes
  11. 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereVoting intention by age group Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 Yes No 29% 62% 37% 51% 12% 30% 61% 9% 30% 61% 9% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+ *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds % voting Yes
  12. 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereVoting intention by levels of deprivation Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 42% 45% 22% 69% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Most deprived areas Least deprived areas % voting Yes
  13. 13. 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here 14% 80%6% Voting intention by party support Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 Yes No 68% 21% 16% 75%9% 1% 98% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 SNP Lab Con Lib Dem % voting Yes
  14. 14. 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereTechnical details • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated
  15. 15. 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

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