Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Ben Page gave this presentation at the Department for Education National College for Training & School Leadership annual conference "Seizing Success 2013". More information: http://www.education.gov.uk/nationalcollege/index/events/conference2013/conference2013-ben-page-making-sense-of-britain.htm

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Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

  1. 1. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. 6%Britain is gettingbetter as a place toliveNovember 2011
  3. 3. 61%Britain is gettingworse as a place toliveNovember 2011
  4. 4. 24%Britain is getting betteras a place to liveJuly 1998
  5. 5. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIR² = 0.49-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%We are in a group of European countries feeling hardest hitby the last five yearsNet disagreecountry willnever be thesame againNet last five years good for countryBase: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisorJapanHungaryTurkey RussiaBelgiumSouth AfricaArgentinaGermanyUSFranceGBMexico PolandSwedenSpainItalySouth KoreaIndonesiaAustraliaSaudi ArabiaCanadaIndiaBrazilNet last five years bad for countryNet agreecountrywill neverbe thesameagain
  6. 6. What it means to be British
  7. 7. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIWhat we really value about Britain...Overall, which two or three of the following, would you say makes you mostproud to be British?
  8. 8. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI453736282422151054Our HistoryThe NHSBritish Army/armed forcesThe Royal FamilyOur culture and artsOur system of democracyHaving a free press/mediaBritish sports teamsOur position in the worldBritish businessWhat we really value about Britain...Overall, which two or three of the following, would you say makes you mostproud to be British?Base: 998 British adults, interviewed face to face 27 Jan - 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 4
  9. 9. Mustn’tGrumbleThere’s lotsabout Britainthat’s good
  10. 10. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIThe Great British Character...From this list, please tell me which two or three, if any, you think are the bestcharacteristics of British people as a whole?Base: 998 British adults, interviewed face to face 27 Jan- 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 44534302826191814Good sense of humourFriendlyTolerant to all sections of societyHard workingPolite / good mannersPatriotismLaw abidingKeep themselves to themselves
  11. 11. On theotherhand...
  12. 12. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIThe British character - badFrom this list, please tell me which two or three, if any, you think are the worstcharacteristics of British people as a whole?Base: 998 British adults, 27 Jan- 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 45033232019181615664Drink too muchIgnorant of other culturesComplain too muchLazyIntolerant to different sections of societyBad eating habitsToo pessimisticRudeToo nationalisticUnfriendlyBad teeth
  13. 13. Anassessmentsupportedby theevidence...
  14. 14. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIMay be they’re right....Alcohol Consumption in the UK 1947-2009Source: British Beer and Pub Association Statistical Handbook 2010
  15. 15. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI16%drop in consumption since 2004Alcohol Consumption in the UK 1947-2009Source: British Beer and Pub Association Statistical Handbook 2010
  16. 16. Not worriedabout you
  17. 17. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI01020304050May1997May1998May1999May2000May2001May2002May2003May2004May2005May2006May2007May2008May2009May2010May2011May2012Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues IndexConcern about education and schools....What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?LondonBombsIntroduction ofmeans-testedtuition fees.Education mostimportant issue.FuelProtestsCity academies introducedto combat entrenchedfailure in some urbanschoolsLowest scoresince Dec 1985Labour’s second term - pledgeto improve failing secondaryschoolsEducation and InspectionsBill limits the power of LAsto open new schoolsBrown becomesPMCameron becomesPM
  18. 18. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “Currently, what would you say is the MAIN educational issue theGovernment needs to address?”Pupil behaviour seen as main educationalproblem – not exam systemFunding/(budget crisis)Pupil behaviour/disciplineTuition feesClass size/pupil-teacher ratioBack to basics/higher standardsTeachers’ workloadBase: 2,048 British adults 18+ , January 2012Teacher recruitment and retentionAssessment/exam reformInclusion/Special Education Needs(SEN)Bullying in schools17%9%6%6%6%3%2%2%2%2%
  19. 19. Version 1 | PublicOn the otherhand...
  20. 20. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI
  21. 21. Hysteresis –my newfavouriteword
  22. 22. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIHow do we compare with our parents?Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013Q. “To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worselife than your parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?”Source: Ipsos MORI32%29%20%14%4%1%Much betterAbout the sameMuch worseGenerationsBetter%Worse%Generation Y 42 29Generation X 60 19BabyBoomers70 14Pre-War 79 8SlightlybetterSlightly worse61%18%Don’t know
  23. 23. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI234342453512Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011% Higher % LowerQ. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have ahigher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?Source: Ipsos MORINovember 2011And what about our own children?April 2003
  24. 24. ..worriedabout youngpeople
  25. 25. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “What do you see as the most important issue facing Britain today?”Youth unemployment seen by one in eight Captains of Industryas key problem - higher than lending and financial crisis43%32%20%18%15%13%12%11%8%Top MentionsThe EurozoneGovernment deficit/debtLack of economic growthConsumerconfidence/confidenceUnemploymentYouth unemploymentSocietal dysfunction/socialissuesAvailability of finance/banklendingFinancial crisis/instabilityBase: British Captains of Industry (100), interviewed September - December 2012
  26. 26. More than a million young people in Englandwere not in education, employment or training(Neet) in the three months to September 2012.17% of 16- to 24-year-olds were without jobs orcollege places.Department for Education, November 2012
  27. 27. 81% of small businessowners are notconfident that schoolleavers have the rightlevel of employabilityskills
  28. 28. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI3%29%23%54%13%8%35%8%26%1%Britain’s educationsystem delivers theskills that yourbusiness needsLarge companiesshould do a lot moreto promoteunderstanding ofbusiness insecondary schools% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither agree nor disagree% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree83%Q “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the followingstatements?”Views shared by Captains of IndustryBase: British Captains of Industry (100), interviewed September - December 2011Only 26% Agree 61% Don’t9%
  29. 29. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ28 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?“Vocational qualifications are of an equal value to traditional academicqualifications such as GCSEs and A levels in terms of the difficultyinvolved in achieving the qualification.”24%23%16%15%27%30%15%18%Headteachers 14%4Teachers 14%Neutralopinionor don’tknowStronglydisagreeTend todisagreeTend toagreeStronglyagreeVocational qualifications under valued?
  30. 30. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “How well prepared are education leavers for employment? “A third of business say school leavers are NOTwell prepared28% 25% 19% 12%9%7%5%2%49% 54%60%59%10% 10% 13%23%010203040506070809010016 - year old school leavers 17-18 - year old schoolleavers17-18-year old FE leavers University or HE LeaversPoorly Prepared Very poorly prepared Well prepared Very well preparedUnweighted Base: (10,985) (13,891)(13,024)(15,706)Base: 85,069 establishments in England, Northern Ireland, and WalesSource: Employer Skills Survey 201137%32%24%14%
  31. 31. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “How helpful, if at all, will each of the following be in helping you dowhat you want to do in the future? “Are you helping them?Base: All year 11 pupils in England stating an answer (368), 9th January - 3rd April 2009949291898375726656455813202525332009Learning how to look for a job% Helpful % Not helpfulLearning interview techniquesGoing on a work placement for aweek or moreBeing taught how to write a CVDiscussing what job you want to do whenyou are olderVisiting a work place, such as afactory or shopListening to or speaking with a visitorfrom businessTaking part in exercises about theworld of work2007%Helpful979492869679797162Taking part in a mini-enterprise orother enterprise project
  32. 32. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “Looking at the list below, have you ever done any of the following inschool time?”Q “How helpful, if at all, will each of the following be in helping you do whatyou want?”More practical techniques would be helpful10203040506070809050 60 70 80 90HavedoneinschoolWould be helpfulBase: 379 year 11 pupils giving an answer in England. Fieldwork dates: 9th January- 3rd April 2009%%Learning howto look for ajobLearning interviewtechniquesGoing on a work placement fora week or moreBeing taughthow to write aCVDiscussing what job you want to dowhen you are olderVisiting a work place,such as a factory or shopListening to orspeaking with avisitor frombusinessTaking part inexercises about theworld of workTaking part in a mini-enterprise or otherenterprise project
  33. 33. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIQ “Who do you think should learn about jobs and working life whilethey are at school? “They want to hear more about world of work...2007Only young people whoplan to get a full-time job at 16All young people77%13%11%2009Base: 1,983 young people aged 11-16 in England. 2007 base (2,195), 2004 base (2,131),Don’t know79%10%12%200474%13%13%Fieldwork dates: 9th January- 3rd April 2009
  34. 34. Version 1 | PublicOur changing generations (andour rugged individualistyouth)…….
  35. 35. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORINeed to understand our generational profileSource: EurostatProportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10% Pre war generation% Generation Y% Generation X% Baby boomers
  36. 36. • Of Twitter users arelikely to recommend abrand they follow, andmore than 1/3 accessTwitter via their mobilephone.Two clear consistent themes:“Younger generations will gothrough the hardest times”(Baby Boomer)“I don’t want to be old in thiscountry”(Gen X)
  37. 37. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI“The government should spend more money on welfarebenefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”
  38. 38. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIAll data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for thepoor, even if it leads to higher taxes”But the young are toughest on the poor....0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65)Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)% Agree
  39. 39. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIAll data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfarestate is one of Britains proudest achievements.”0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)% % Agree/Strongly agreeDifferent generations now have different values...
  40. 40. Worried Britain
  41. 41. And yet...
  42. 42. Lowestmurderrate since1978...
  43. 43. Crime ratesrunning athalf 1990slevels...
  44. 44. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIConcern about crime also fallingWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index0102030405060May1997May1998May1999May2000May2001May2002May2003May2004May2005May2006May2007May2008May2009May2010May2011May2012FuelProtestsMay day riotsBlair activates civil contingenciesmachinery to deal with spirallingstreet crimeTory election pledge of40,000 more policeForeign prisonersscandal – Charles Clarkeis sackedRhys Jones andGarry NewlovemurderedRiotsPrisonovercrowdingreaches recordlevels9/11Brown becomesPMCameron becomesPM
  45. 45. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIGenerally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted orthat you need to be very careful in dealing with people?No more “broken” than many other societies...0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%USA Germany Britain Spain Poland France%AgreethatmostpeoplecanbetrustedSocial TrustUSAGermanyBritainSpainPolandFranceSource: World Values Survey quoted in Ipsos MORI’s, Our Nations Civic Health, 2010
  46. 46. 54% 60%
  47. 47. On the other hand....
  48. 48. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIGAMIFICATIONSIMULATORS/PREDICTIVE TOOLSNEUROSCIENCE REAL TIMEQUANTIFIED SELFAUGMENTEDREALITYMETA DATACLOUD TECHNOLOGY RFID/SENSORSLEVERAGINGDISTRACTIONLOCATION-BASED/GEO-SOCIALAPPIFICATIONA permanentchange – topermanent change
  49. 49. TECHNOLOGY TRACKER | QUARTERLY RELEASE: Q1 2013LEADING THE WAY IN SMARTPHONES315314219139200%10%20%30%40%50%60%Q1 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 1350Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORIBLACKBERRY VS. IPHONE VS. ANDROID OWNERSHIPiPhoneMales 15-34 29%Males 35+ 22%Female 15-3419%Females35+30%AndroidMales 15-34 27%Males 35+ 27%Female 15-3423%Females35+23%BlackBerryMales 15-34 22%Males 35+ 29%Female 15-3424%Females35+25%Any Smartphone(net)Customer profile
  50. 50. Actually quite good Britain
  51. 51. • Of Twitter users arelikely to recommend abrand they follow, andmore than 1/3 accessTwitter via their mobilephone.BacktoLondon2012
  52. 52. "As awful as it is to admit,London 2012 was bigger,slicker, almost as friendlyand more thoughtfullyplanned than Sydney interms of the legacy it willleave the host city”The Australian
  53. 53. "As awful as it is to admit,London 2012 was bigger,slicker, almost as friendlyand more thoughtfullyplanned than Sydney interms of the legacy it willleave the host city”The Australian"These Olympics havebeen a success for GreatBritain. Bolt, Boyle, Bond,Brenda and Mr Bean: all thechampions took to thefield, no-onedisappointed!"Corriere della Sella
  54. 54. We think we’re good atSOME things...
  55. 55. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIOur self assessment: The “inputs”Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakestcompared with other countries?Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council352211 117 6 5 3-19 -19-450
  56. 56. The UK is in the world’s Top 10....directly employs 2.5 million people,generates half of UKexports...2nd only to the US inaerospace industry...2 of top 6pharmaceutical companies in theworld have their HQs in UK…Source: Technology Strategy Board
  57. 57. We think we’re good atSOME more things...
  58. 58. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIOur self assessment: The “outputs”Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakestcompared with other countries?Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council25 23 12 9 8 8 7 3-4 -5-8 -22
  59. 59. “... resurgent UK-based autoindustry exported a record-breaking84% of production lastyear.....average annual productivityincrease of 3.6%, two and a halftimes greater than the UK economyas a whole”Source: Technology Strategy Board
  60. 60. But we’re modestpeople really...
  61. 61. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIThe most famous British products?Looking at this list, which, if any, would you describe as “British”?By British, I mean they were made or designed in Britain
  62. 62. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI59524820141396542273The MiniCat’s Eyes (on the road)Dyson vacuum cleanerThe Hoover vacuum cleanerLastminute.comWorld Wide Web (www)TeflonGrand Theft Auto video gameThe BlackBerry phoneFacebookThe VW BeetleThe “Angry Birds” AppDon’t knowNone of theseThe most famous British products?Looking at this list, which, if any, would you describe as “British”?By British, I mean they were made or designed in BritainBase: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council
  63. 63. But we’re modest peoplereally......perhaps toomodest?
  64. 64. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORITypically self-deprecating Brits…!Taking into account all the things which you think are important, howfavourable or unfavourable is your overall opinion/impression of the UK…?Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 201053%50%49%48%46%45%45%43%41%37%36%24%13%55%54%45%56%45%51%53%56%47%59%43%42%48%Respects human rightsHas a strong commitment to culture and the artsRespects its neighbours and other countriesHas strong democratic values and institutionsContributes to peace and co-operationContributes to global economyRespects contracts and the rule of lawRespects the rights of its citizensContributes to international socio-economicdevelopmentIts people enjoy a good standard of livingMakes a positive difference in the worldIs a good country in which to investHas a strong economy% Favourable - Britain % Favourable - Global
  65. 65. • Of Twitter users arelikely to recommend abrand they follow, andmore than 1/3 accessTwitter via their mobilephone.TwoOlympicYears:1948and2012
  66. 66. TV ownership…from 46,000 to26,000,000
  67. 67. Life expectancy…from 68 to 80 years
  68. 68. Population…from 49.8m to 63m
  69. 69. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIBetter for women, more tolerant, diverse...To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements abouthow Britain has changed since 1948?Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future88724441129Women have more choices now thanthey didPeople are less discriminating ofpeople who are gayRelations between different ethnicgroups are better nowAgree Disagree
  70. 70. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORILess religious... And getting ruder...To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements abouthow Britain has changed since 1948?Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future72127135674Britain is a less religious place nowBritish people are better at parentingnowBritain is now a more polite placeAgree Disagree
  71. 71. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIOn balance we’ve lost something...To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements abouthow Britain has changed since 1948?Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future24%52%24%People are just as proud to beBritish now as they were thenAgreeDisagreeNeither /no opinion
  72. 72. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIPeople have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do youagree with most?...people’s own use of evidence skewed to directexperienceBase: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 20134691826 Statistics are more importantthan my own experiences orthose of my family and friends inhelping me keep track of howthe government is doingMy own experiences or those ofmy family and friends are moreimportant than statistics inhelping me keep track of howthe government is doingBoth equallyNeither/Don’t know
  73. 73. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIImagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you thatyou need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have thisoperation if your doctor tells you that...... we focus on negative informationBase: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013563331739386216Very likelyQuite likelyNot very likelyNot at all likelyDont know90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the operation10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation
  74. 74. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIThinking about your child/if you had a child, which of the followingwould make you most proud?We don’t value numeracy.......Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 201313551615If they were very goodwith numbersIf they were very goodat reading and writingNeitherDont know
  75. 75. We under-estimateourselves, and oureconomy......we are much moreinteresting than weimagine...
  76. 76. Help them get ready foran unpredictable world!
  77. 77. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI8181Most predictions are wrong
  78. 78. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI8282Most predictions are wrong
  79. 79. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORIMICROSOFT,APPLE AND IPSOSMORI WILLPROBABLY NOTEXIST IN 100YEARS’ TIME83
  80. 80. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI
  81. 81. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI
  82. 82. Help them get ready!
  83. 83. Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI

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