Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

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Our latest poll for STV news finds that the SNP remains in the lead in voting for the Scottish Parliament.

The regular Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor shows that, among those certain to vote, 41% would vote for the SNP, up 2 points since May. Labour are 4 points behind in second place on 37%, up a point since May, while the Conservatives are on 13%, down 3 points, and the Liberal Democrats are on 7%, down a point.

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Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

  1. 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013
  2. 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Scottish Parliament voting
  3. 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections Base: All giving a voting intention = 816; all certain to vote = 61% (629). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 38% 37% 15% 9% All giving a voting intention 41% 37% 13% 7% Certain to vote SNP lead +1 SNP lead +4 SNP Labour Cons. Lib Dem SNP Labour Cons. Lib Dem
  4. 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other 41% 37% 13% 7% 2% Scottish Parliament Election Result Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections
  5. 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Perceptions of key figures
  6. 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/? Satisfaction with party leaders Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Patrick Harvie David Cameron Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net satisfaction +8 +6 -28 0 +11 -5 48% 37% 32% 31% 27% 22% 40% 31% 60% 31% 16% 27% 12% 32% 8% 38% 58% 50%
  7. 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/? Satisfaction with leaders among own party supporters Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont David Cameron Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net satisfaction +66 +64 +39 +39 +44 78% 14% 8% 81% 15% 4% 57% 18% 25% 58% 19% 23% 57% 13% 30%
  8. 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Satisfaction with party leaders trend 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron 48% 37% 31% 22% 27% Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. 32%
  9. 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron +8 +5 0 -5 +11 Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. -28
  10. 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here 10 Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign? 31% 32% 37% 17% 31% 52% Don't know Dissatisfied Satisfied Satisfaction with campaign leaders 30% 23% 47% 11% 16% 73% Don't know Dissatisfied Satisfied All Own campaign supporters Nicola Sturgeon Alistair Darling
  11. 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereTechnical details • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated
  12. 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

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