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Risk & return
Darr ke aage Jeet Hai!!!
Return
• Literal Meaning – “Give Back”




• Financial Literacy – “Give Back with Profits”
Calculation
• Single Period

• Multi Period

• Compounded Return
Ex – Post & Ex - Ante
• Experienced Incomes –   • Expected Incomes –
  Dividends                 Dividends

• Capital Appreciation    • Capital Appreciation
  Experienced – Stock       Expected - Stocks
Portfolio Return
• Weighted Average Return

 Stock          Price as on   Price as on   Yearly     Rate of Return
                01-04-XX      31-03-X1      Dividend   (%)
 X              20            30            2          ??

 Y              30            40            3          ??

 Z              50            60            5          ??

 Portfolio of   100           130           10         ???
 (X,Y & Z)
Analyze
Stock      01     02       03     04    05
Sterlite   30%    28%      34%    32%   31%
Bauxite    26%    13%      48%    11%   57%


 • Which one would you pick?
Risk


• Deviation from that of the Expectation
• Uncertainty - Variation in Returns
• Standard Deviation & Variance is the common
  measure in Finance
Standard Deviation
• What is this?
• What are the uses?
• By –Heart the formulae.
Co-Relation
• Relationship
  – Of the Movement
  – Of the Style


• What is the use
  – Learn the Pattern
  – Determine the Relationship factor
Portfolio Risk
• Benefits of a Portfolio ? - Assignment

• Portfolio Risk of Sterlite & Bauxite
• 40% in Sterlite & 60% in Bauxite
    Expected    Expected    Std Dev of   Std Dev of   Coefficient
    Return on   Return on    Sterlite     Bauxite     Co-relation
     Sterlite    Bauxite
      20%         30%         10%          16%        -1 , 0.5 , +1
Company
        Specific
RISK
        Market
        Specific
Company Specific
• Sector Specific
  – Regulation & Legislation
  – Cartels , Guilds


• Company Specific
  – Management
  – Capital Structure
  – Performance
Market Specific
• “Follow the Economy, For the Stocks do the
  same” – Warren Buffet

• Every Stock would have a co-variance with the
  market, hence the existence of Market Risk.

• This Risk cannot be avoided. They are like kink
  in the Thermometer
Standard Deviation of Portfolio Return %                             Non – Systematic Risk




                                                                  Systematic Risk

                                           Number of Securities
B eeeeeeee T aaaaaaaaaa
• The Unsystematic risk can be diversified but the
  Systematic one?

• We cannot avoid the Systematic Risk by
  diversification, rather Minimize them.

• Thus we use Beta, Which is formed from the
  Equation
• Y = a + bx + e
• Beta = Covariance ( Stock & Market )

             Variance of The Market

• Substitution of the Formulae’s can help you
  learn more of the Relationships

• Egs, Lower the Co – Relation between Market
  & Stock, Lower will be Beta & Vice Versa.
Risk Measurement
• Systematic Risk
  – BETA Square * Variance of the Market


• Unsystematic Risk
  – Variance of the Stock - Systematic Risk
Investment – risk & return

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Investment – risk & return

  • 1. Risk & return Darr ke aage Jeet Hai!!!
  • 2. Return • Literal Meaning – “Give Back” • Financial Literacy – “Give Back with Profits”
  • 3. Calculation • Single Period • Multi Period • Compounded Return
  • 4. Ex – Post & Ex - Ante • Experienced Incomes – • Expected Incomes – Dividends Dividends • Capital Appreciation • Capital Appreciation Experienced – Stock Expected - Stocks
  • 5. Portfolio Return • Weighted Average Return Stock Price as on Price as on Yearly Rate of Return 01-04-XX 31-03-X1 Dividend (%) X 20 30 2 ?? Y 30 40 3 ?? Z 50 60 5 ?? Portfolio of 100 130 10 ??? (X,Y & Z)
  • 6. Analyze Stock 01 02 03 04 05 Sterlite 30% 28% 34% 32% 31% Bauxite 26% 13% 48% 11% 57% • Which one would you pick?
  • 7. Risk • Deviation from that of the Expectation • Uncertainty - Variation in Returns • Standard Deviation & Variance is the common measure in Finance
  • 8. Standard Deviation • What is this? • What are the uses? • By –Heart the formulae.
  • 9. Co-Relation • Relationship – Of the Movement – Of the Style • What is the use – Learn the Pattern – Determine the Relationship factor
  • 10. Portfolio Risk • Benefits of a Portfolio ? - Assignment • Portfolio Risk of Sterlite & Bauxite • 40% in Sterlite & 60% in Bauxite Expected Expected Std Dev of Std Dev of Coefficient Return on Return on Sterlite Bauxite Co-relation Sterlite Bauxite 20% 30% 10% 16% -1 , 0.5 , +1
  • 11. Company Specific RISK Market Specific
  • 12. Company Specific • Sector Specific – Regulation & Legislation – Cartels , Guilds • Company Specific – Management – Capital Structure – Performance
  • 13. Market Specific • “Follow the Economy, For the Stocks do the same” – Warren Buffet • Every Stock would have a co-variance with the market, hence the existence of Market Risk. • This Risk cannot be avoided. They are like kink in the Thermometer
  • 14. Standard Deviation of Portfolio Return % Non – Systematic Risk Systematic Risk Number of Securities
  • 15. B eeeeeeee T aaaaaaaaaa • The Unsystematic risk can be diversified but the Systematic one? • We cannot avoid the Systematic Risk by diversification, rather Minimize them. • Thus we use Beta, Which is formed from the Equation • Y = a + bx + e
  • 16. • Beta = Covariance ( Stock & Market ) Variance of The Market • Substitution of the Formulae’s can help you learn more of the Relationships • Egs, Lower the Co – Relation between Market & Stock, Lower will be Beta & Vice Versa.
  • 17. Risk Measurement • Systematic Risk – BETA Square * Variance of the Market • Unsystematic Risk – Variance of the Stock - Systematic Risk