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Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State
Useful information is required for sound decisions… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],For example:
What techniques do you use to obtain information?
But, good information is difficult to obtain… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FUTURES MARKETS…
A futures contract is… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A typical commodity futures contract… 5,000 bushels of No. 2 Yellow Corn for delivery in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 1 March 2006.
Prices have useful features… Act like a vacuum sweeper, collecting and aggregating information that is otherwise highly decentralized and privately held.
IDEA FUTURES MARKETS…
A  NewsFutures  market: Outcome of Super Bowl…
Super Bowl market: Price/volume plot for 24 hours
NewsFutures   Super Bowl market: Closing details
Information markets also are called idea futures markets… ,[object Object],[object Object]
An information futures market:  Foresight Exchange … http://www.ideosphere.com
BUSH04  contract from  Foresight Exchange … “ G.W. Bush, the president of the United States at the time that this claim started trading, will still be president on 2005-02-01 (after the inauguration after the election is usually scheduled).”
Criterion for judging  BUSH04  … “ This claim will be TRUE even if elections are postponed or G.W. Bush remains in power by staging a coup. If there are events which make it confusing who the US president is, as of 2005-02-01, this claim is true if G.W. Bush is leading a sovereign government in at least part of the United States of America that has recognition of at least one of the UN Security Council permanent members (Britain, China, and Russia) other than the United States.”
Price plot for  BUSH04
Volume plot for  BUSH04
Some prominent information markets… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Iowa Electronic Markets…
Hollywood Stock Exchange…
TradeSports…
Intrade…
Policy Analysis Market… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(terminated)
THE POTENTIAL…
Collective intelligence & markets in public eye
Markets have business uses… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Means of aggregating information used… Single estimate Probability  distribution Single estimate or distribution 10% 10% 80%
When markets help most… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Organizations still are experimenting with forecasting… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coordination is complex and is less explored than forecasting… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market uses are limited and fragile… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
BUSINESS CASES…
O’Reilly publishing… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Yahoo… ,[object Object],[object Object]
Microsoft… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Google ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Arcelor… ,[object Object],[object Object]
Corning LCD TV…
Hewlett Packard  sales forecasts… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hewlett Packard  sales forecasts… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6 of the 8 sales forecasts from idea futures markets were closer to the actual sales outcome than were official HP forecasts.
Some uses.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Penn State Idea Futures Market…
Web site with a similar presentation to Human Resource Planning Society… http://www.personal.psu.edu/dlp/hrps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rose M. Baker [email_address] David L. Passmore [email_address]
Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State

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