Presentation made in WF ED 540, Data Analysis in Workforce Education & Development, Penn State, Fall Semester 2019

1. DATA ANALYSIS INWF ED
CLASS MEETING 11, 11 NOVEMBER 2019

2. Cause

3. Cause
Effect

4. Cause – produces
Effect – is produced

5. Conditions for believing
that a cause, A, creates an
effect, B?

6. Conditions for believing
that a cause, A, creates an
effect, B?
A precedes B in time.

7. Conditions for believing
that a cause, A, creates an
effect, B?
A precedes B in time.
A and B are correlated. As A changes, B
changes.

8. Conditions for believing
that a cause, A, creates an
effect, B?
A precedes B in time.
A and B are correlated. As A changes, B
changes.
A, and only A, cause B. Only change in
A makes B change.

9. INUS conditions for cause

10. INUS conditions for cause
Insufficient
but nonredundant
part of an unnecessary
but sufficient
condition for an
effect to happen

11. INUS conditions for cause
Based on the observation
that effects have a plurality
of causes

12. INUS conditions for cause
Example – Short-circuits cause house fires.
Short-circuit is an inus condition.

13. INUS conditions for cause
Example – Short-circuits cause house fires.
Short-circuit is an inus condition.
Insufficient – can’t start fire on its own.

14. INUS conditions for cause
Example – Short-circuits cause house fires.
Short-circuit is an inus condition.
Insufficient – can’t start fire on its own.
Nonredundant – without it, rest of conditions (e.g.,
oxygen, inflammatory material) can’t start fire.

15. INUS conditions for cause
Example – Short-circuits cause house fires.
Short-circuit is an inus condition.
Insufficient – can’t start fire on its own.
Nonredundant – without it, rest of conditions (e.g.,
oxygen, inflammatory material) can’t start fire.
Unnecessary – houses start on fire for other reasons
(e.g. arson).

16. INUS conditions for cause
Example – Short-circuits cause house fires.
Short-circuit is an inus condition.
Insufficient – can’t start fire on its own.
Nonredundant – without it, rest of conditions (e.g.,
oxygen, inflammatory material) can’t start fire.
Unnecessary – houses start on fire for other reasons
(e.g. arson).
Sufficient – could start a fire with other conditions
present.

17.  What constitutes the “secret
connexion” of causality is one of the
big questions of philosophy
 Philosophical proposals:
• A causes B means that…
• A invariably follows B (David Hume)
• A is an Insufficient but Nonredundant part
of an Unnecessary but Sufficient condition
for B (INUS condition; John Mackie)
• B counterfactually depends onA: if A had
not happened, B would not have happened
(David Lewis)
• … David Hume (1711-1776)
Portret door Allan Ramsay,
1766

18. Example of a
Counterfactual

19. Causal Description
Causal Explanation

20. Experiment

21. Experiment
Quasi-experiment

22. Natural experiment

23. Natural experiment
A natural experiment is an empirical or observational study.
Experimental variables of interest are not manipulated by
researchers but instead are allowed to be influenced by
nature or factors outside of the researchers' control.
Unlike traditional randomized experiments, natural
experiments are not controlled by researchers but rather are
observed and analyzed.

24. How is a
correlational study
different than a
quasi-experiment?

25. DATA ANALYSIS INWF ED
CLASS MEETING 11, 11 NOVEMBER 2019