Introduction to Prediction Markets
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This presentation introduces prediction markets, describes who uses them and why, and ends with an examination of how the prediction market industry is trying to make the act of making prediction more usable.
![Simple Definition of Prediction Markets ,[object Object]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Introduction to Prediction Markets
- 1. An Introduction to Prediction Markets (a.k.a. Idea Futures, Decision Markets, Information Markets, and Event Markets) alex kirtland / UsableMarkets 25 Mar 2007
- 3. outcome / contract outcome / contract outcome / contract outcome / contract outcome / contract All Others The “who will win the 2008 presidential election” market the market (the event)
- 4. Contract Hillary: Hillary Clinton WILL BE our next president $0.00 $1.00 Price 0% 100% Prediction $0.26 26% Hillary Clinton has a 26% chance, at this point in time, of being our next president.
- 5. All Others The “who will win the 2008 presidential election” market the market $0.26 $0.20 $0.18 $0.12 $0.24 26% 20% 18% 12% 24% = 100%
- 10. How are prediction markets different than polls?
- 11. Who uses these things? ?
- 17. and others ... .
- 20. Gamers Gamblers Sophisticates Employees Your “Average Joe”
- 21. Knows how to trade Doesn’t
- 23. Most of us Knows how to trade Doesn’t
- 32. Thank You!
Editor's Notes
- Welcome. I’m assuming that most people have never heard of, or know very little about prediction markets. Right? Today’s goals basic introduction to prediction markets how they are used, who uses them and what for and to tell what I consider to be a fairly interesting story about how these markets have struggled to become more usable