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Prediction Markets

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Melanie Swan
Melanie Swan

Prediction markets are a tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles. Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting. Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts).

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Collective Intelligence Live Prediction Markets Simulation Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com July 28, 2010 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
About Melanie Swan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
Summary ,[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://www.inklingmarkets.com
Futurist toolkit for collaborative intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: Bill Frymire
Crowd-sourced toolkit for collaborative intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/ Image: http://nmk.co.uk
History of prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Source: http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/17/history-prediction-markets-timeline Image: http://www.bookshift.com
Prediction markets - definition Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market ,[object Object],Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
Social business intelligence in organizations Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://torontopm.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/quarterly-sales-graph.jpg?w=300&h=234 Crowdsourcing vendors: chaordix.com, jovoto.com – marketplace for creative concepts
When to use prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consumer prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/INCPT
Consumer prediction markets – LongBets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.longbets.org/bets
Consumer prediction markets - simExchange Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.simexchange.com/stock.php?id=238
Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets
Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/28753
Prediction market apps Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 1 Source: Viral Loop: From Facebook to Twitter, How Today's Smartest Businesses Grow Themselves Intrade Viral Loop 1
Prediction market design Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=693480&z=1278982073468
Future of prediction markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464
Summary ,[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://www.intrade.com HIGGS.BOSON.DEC10
Resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
Prediction markets simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NT – Nanotechnology NCS – Networks & Computing Systems EES – Energy & Environmental Systems AIR – AI & Robotics BIO – Biotech, Bioinformatics, Medicine & Neuroscience
Futures simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
Future simulation workshop: 2010-2020 Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image:http://bit.ly/csxwqv
Team formation & Inkling intro Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
Futures simulation workshop - debrief Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://van.embl.de/htfg/img/htfg_logo.png ,[object Object]

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Prediction Markets

  • 1. Collective Intelligence Live Prediction Markets Simulation Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com July 28, 2010 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
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  • 11. Consumer prediction markets – LongBets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.longbets.org/bets
  • 12. Consumer prediction markets - simExchange Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.simexchange.com/stock.php?id=238
  • 13. Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets
  • 14. Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/28753
  • 15. Prediction market apps Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 1 Source: Viral Loop: From Facebook to Twitter, How Today's Smartest Businesses Grow Themselves Intrade Viral Loop 1
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  • 20. Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
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  • 24. Team formation & Inkling intro Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
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