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Collective Intelligence  Live Prediction Markets Simulation Melanie Swan  Principal  MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com July 28, 2010 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com  SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
About Melanie Swan Hedge fund manager, futurist, entrepreneur, founder DIYgenomics  Work experience: Fidelity, JP Morgan, Arthur Andersen, iPass, RHK/Ovum MBA, Wharton; BA, Georgetown University Sample publications Swan, M. Multigenic Condition Risk Assessment in Direct-to-Consumer Genomic Services.  Genet. Med.   2010 , May;12(5):279-88. Swan, M. Translational antiaging research.  Rejuvenation Res.   2010 , Feb;13(1):115-7. Swan, M. Engineering Life into Technology: the Application of Complexity Theory to a Potential Phase Transition of Intelligence.  Symmetry   2010 , 2, 150:183. [Summary of Singularity University technology and implication synthesis] Swan, M. Emerging patient-driven health care models: an examination of health social networks, consumer personalized medicine and quantified self-tracking.  Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health   2009 , 2, 492-525. Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
Summary Prediction markets are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts) Image: http://www.inklingmarkets.com
Futurist toolkit for collaborative intelligence  Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation checklist Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Scenario planning Simulation Frameworks Wild-carding Longitudinal studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
Crowd-sourced toolkit for collaborative intelligence  Wikipedia, wikis, Etherpad Unconferences Ignite talks Tag intros Twitter  Question networks  Quora, formspring, Hunch Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/ Image: http://nmk.co.uk
History of prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Decision markets, idea futures, predictive markets, information markets, event derivatives, virtual markets  Long history of event betting Election betting, sports betting, stock markets Modern incarnation – last ~10 years 1988 Iowa Electronic Markets ran first market 1 2002 US DARPA terrorism futures debacle Proliferation of consumer and enterprise prediction markets Testbed for financial contracts Housing and weather futures, carbon trading, movie futures Futarchy  Notion of using prediction markets in government policy 1 Source: http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/17/history-prediction-markets-timeline Image: http://www.bookshift.com
Prediction markets - definition Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Price: probability of event occurring Value: leading indicator, expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1 1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets:  2008 US Democratic Convention Market Tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
Social business intelligence in organizations Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 PMs in use at 100-200 US organizations (July 2010) Ex: HP, BestBuy, Electronic Arts, Boeing, Amazon, Harvard, GM, Hallmark, P&G, Ford, Microsoft, Chevron, Lockheed Martin, CNN, Adobe, American Express, Bosch Applications Project management, risk management Revenue forecasting, demand planning, capital budgeting Idea management (rate, filter, prioritize ideas) Vendors Consensus Point, Crowdcast, Bright Idea, Qmarkets, Inkling Image: http://torontopm.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/quarterly-sales-graph.jpg?w=300&h=234 Crowdsourcing vendors: chaordix.com, jovoto.com – marketplace for creative concepts
When to use prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Complexity (ecosystem) Uncertainty Many decision points Clear outcomes Market liquidity Diversity of opinion
Consumer prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Iowa Electronic Markets Intrade Prediction Markets simExchange  Hollywood Stock Exchange Oscar predictions LongBets Source: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/INCPT
Consumer prediction markets – LongBets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.longbets.org/bets
Consumer prediction markets - simExchange Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.simexchange.com/stock.php?id=238
Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets
Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/28753
Prediction market apps  Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 1 Source: Viral Loop: From Facebook to Twitter, How Today's Smartest Businesses Grow Themselves Intrade Viral Loop 1
Prediction market design Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) Participation incentive Users are anonymous  Time frame Episodic or continuous Question design: What is your opinion? What do you think others will say? How accurately do you think others will answer? Source: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=693480&z=1278982073468
Future of prediction markets Consumer prediction markets Opinion capture standard website feature  Digg, bookmarking, socnet, updates, gaming Two-way XML element  Real-time polling – automatic alerts for opinion entry per interest profile  Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets BOL / ERP / supply chain integration Sales and CRM integration Knowledge acuity ratings of individuals become a valuable and personally-tradable currency Accurate predictor, information steward Market mechanisms become more pervasive Automatic markets for transparent allocation of fungible resources based on pre-specified preferences Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464
Summary Prediction markets are a tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts) Image: http://www.intrade.com HIGGS.BOSON.DEC10
Resources Prediction Markets blogs http://www.midasoracle.org http://www.ingenesist.com http://torontopm.wordpress.com Prediction Markets Cluster http://pmclusters.com Prediction Market Industry Association http://www.pmindustry.org Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
Prediction markets simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 You are the world’s leading social venture capitalists Seeking ideas with social, environmental & economic impact 5 teams, $1 billion to invest Alongside prediction market registering opinion on outcomes NT  – Nanotechnology  NCS   –  Networks & Computing Systems EES  –  Energy & Environmental Systems AIR   – AI & Robotics BIO  – Biotech, Bioinformatics, Medicine & Neuroscience
Futures simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 2010 – 2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
Future simulation workshop: 2010-2020 Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams, for example Technology, product  Startup, research group, non-profit organization, NGO Policy, social shift, new governance/economic model Strategy undertaken by existing companies/countries Water/food/upcycling/space/energy or not Criteria Novelty Social, environmental & economic impact Trade-off: high-impact idea vs. practical realizability  Present to the group Concept soundbite (‘eBay for Genomes’) 1-2 minute pitch summarizing the idea  Image:http://bit.ly/csxwqv
Team formation & Inkling intro Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
Futures simulation workshop - debrief Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 What did you realize thinking about energy in 2020? AI in 2030? How did earlier technology developments influence future outcomes? How is it best to think about multiple technology areas together? What did you notice about the simulation and the prediction market together? Reliable? In what situations could you see using prediction markets? SU? Image: http://van.embl.de/htfg/img/htfg_logo.png What did you learn about trying to predict innovation development in long time frames with high uncertainty?

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Prediction Markets

  • 1. Collective Intelligence Live Prediction Markets Simulation Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com July 28, 2010 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
  • 2. About Melanie Swan Hedge fund manager, futurist, entrepreneur, founder DIYgenomics Work experience: Fidelity, JP Morgan, Arthur Andersen, iPass, RHK/Ovum MBA, Wharton; BA, Georgetown University Sample publications Swan, M. Multigenic Condition Risk Assessment in Direct-to-Consumer Genomic Services. Genet. Med. 2010 , May;12(5):279-88. Swan, M. Translational antiaging research. Rejuvenation Res. 2010 , Feb;13(1):115-7. Swan, M. Engineering Life into Technology: the Application of Complexity Theory to a Potential Phase Transition of Intelligence. Symmetry 2010 , 2, 150:183. [Summary of Singularity University technology and implication synthesis] Swan, M. Emerging patient-driven health care models: an examination of health social networks, consumer personalized medicine and quantified self-tracking. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2009 , 2, 492-525. Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
  • 3. Summary Prediction markets are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts) Image: http://www.inklingmarkets.com
  • 4. Futurist toolkit for collaborative intelligence Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation checklist Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Scenario planning Simulation Frameworks Wild-carding Longitudinal studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
  • 5. Crowd-sourced toolkit for collaborative intelligence Wikipedia, wikis, Etherpad Unconferences Ignite talks Tag intros Twitter Question networks Quora, formspring, Hunch Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/ Image: http://nmk.co.uk
  • 6. History of prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Decision markets, idea futures, predictive markets, information markets, event derivatives, virtual markets Long history of event betting Election betting, sports betting, stock markets Modern incarnation – last ~10 years 1988 Iowa Electronic Markets ran first market 1 2002 US DARPA terrorism futures debacle Proliferation of consumer and enterprise prediction markets Testbed for financial contracts Housing and weather futures, carbon trading, movie futures Futarchy Notion of using prediction markets in government policy 1 Source: http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/17/history-prediction-markets-timeline Image: http://www.bookshift.com
  • 7. Prediction markets - definition Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Price: probability of event occurring Value: leading indicator, expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1 1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market Tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
  • 8. Social business intelligence in organizations Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 PMs in use at 100-200 US organizations (July 2010) Ex: HP, BestBuy, Electronic Arts, Boeing, Amazon, Harvard, GM, Hallmark, P&G, Ford, Microsoft, Chevron, Lockheed Martin, CNN, Adobe, American Express, Bosch Applications Project management, risk management Revenue forecasting, demand planning, capital budgeting Idea management (rate, filter, prioritize ideas) Vendors Consensus Point, Crowdcast, Bright Idea, Qmarkets, Inkling Image: http://torontopm.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/quarterly-sales-graph.jpg?w=300&h=234 Crowdsourcing vendors: chaordix.com, jovoto.com – marketplace for creative concepts
  • 9. When to use prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Complexity (ecosystem) Uncertainty Many decision points Clear outcomes Market liquidity Diversity of opinion
  • 10. Consumer prediction markets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Iowa Electronic Markets Intrade Prediction Markets simExchange Hollywood Stock Exchange Oscar predictions LongBets Source: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/INCPT
  • 11. Consumer prediction markets – LongBets Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.longbets.org/bets
  • 12. Consumer prediction markets - simExchange Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://www.simexchange.com/stock.php?id=238
  • 13. Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets
  • 14. Consumer prediction markets - Inkling Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Source: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/28753
  • 15. Prediction market apps Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 1 Source: Viral Loop: From Facebook to Twitter, How Today's Smartest Businesses Grow Themselves Intrade Viral Loop 1
  • 16. Prediction market design Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) Participation incentive Users are anonymous Time frame Episodic or continuous Question design: What is your opinion? What do you think others will say? How accurately do you think others will answer? Source: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=693480&z=1278982073468
  • 17. Future of prediction markets Consumer prediction markets Opinion capture standard website feature Digg, bookmarking, socnet, updates, gaming Two-way XML element Real-time polling – automatic alerts for opinion entry per interest profile Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets BOL / ERP / supply chain integration Sales and CRM integration Knowledge acuity ratings of individuals become a valuable and personally-tradable currency Accurate predictor, information steward Market mechanisms become more pervasive Automatic markets for transparent allocation of fungible resources based on pre-specified preferences Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464
  • 18. Summary Prediction markets are a tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts) Image: http://www.intrade.com HIGGS.BOSON.DEC10
  • 19. Resources Prediction Markets blogs http://www.midasoracle.org http://www.ingenesist.com http://torontopm.wordpress.com Prediction Markets Cluster http://pmclusters.com Prediction Market Industry Association http://www.pmindustry.org Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
  • 20. Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
  • 21. Prediction markets simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 You are the world’s leading social venture capitalists Seeking ideas with social, environmental & economic impact 5 teams, $1 billion to invest Alongside prediction market registering opinion on outcomes NT – Nanotechnology NCS – Networks & Computing Systems EES – Energy & Environmental Systems AIR – AI & Robotics BIO – Biotech, Bioinformatics, Medicine & Neuroscience
  • 22. Futures simulation workshop Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 2010 – 2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
  • 23. Future simulation workshop: 2010-2020 Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams, for example Technology, product Startup, research group, non-profit organization, NGO Policy, social shift, new governance/economic model Strategy undertaken by existing companies/countries Water/food/upcycling/space/energy or not Criteria Novelty Social, environmental & economic impact Trade-off: high-impact idea vs. practical realizability Present to the group Concept soundbite (‘eBay for Genomes’) 1-2 minute pitch summarizing the idea Image:http://bit.ly/csxwqv
  • 24. Team formation & Inkling intro Prediction Markets July 28, 2010
  • 25. Futures simulation workshop - debrief Prediction Markets July 28, 2010 What did you realize thinking about energy in 2020? AI in 2030? How did earlier technology developments influence future outcomes? How is it best to think about multiple technology areas together? What did you notice about the simulation and the prediction market together? Reliable? In what situations could you see using prediction markets? SU? Image: http://van.embl.de/htfg/img/htfg_logo.png What did you learn about trying to predict innovation development in long time frames with high uncertainty?