Market Sizing
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This document discusses how to conduct a market analysis to identify the total available market (TAM) size for a new product or service. It recommends determining the current TAM, growth rate, factors driving market trends and adoption, as well as competition and market structure. Examples are provided showing how to estimate the server virtualization TAM using top-down and bottom-up approaches, as well as the potential market for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles using a comparable method. The document stresses the importance of citing reliable data sources and providing realistic market projections to convince investors of the opportunity size.
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Market Sizing
- 4. Sizing: Determine “Total Available Market” for your product - today & growth rate
- 5. Factors driving this market, trends in the market that make it ripe for your product/disruption; assumptions to believe it’ll take off
- 6. Also factors inhibiting it
- 7. Structure of the market
- 8. Competition (separate session), substitutes
- 9. Why is it important
- 10. Helps you define your customer
- 13. $ (or Rupee) value of total product/service that could be sold if every person for whom product is applicable would buy it at the price point you envision
- 14. It’s the full pie – sum of revenues of all players in the space (existing & new)
- 15. So TAM =/= your company’s revenue projections. But your revenues should be a believable % of the market
- 16. Common market sizing patterns
- 17. Comparable – Look at adoption curve of other similar products; VCs love analogies
- 18. Top down – Look at how many households…
- 19. Subset – Total market for cars is X, we go after hybrid cars first…
- 21. Example-1 Server Virtualization – Bottom up Approach
- 22. Example-2 PHEVs – Comparable method Exhibit A: Comparison between Normal car, Hybrid and PHEV (and later how different)
- 23. Example-2 PHEVs – Comparable method
- 24. Example-3 eLearning – Segment by segment
- 26. But is good discipline to get you to think & investors will ask
- 27. Where to get data?
- 28. Google is good but trust reliable sources
- 29. Market research firms like Gartner, Forrester: Expensive !
- 30. Lots of free sources: CIA Fact Book
- 31. Do’s
- 32. Mention the sources of the data
- 33. Size the market in more than one way to convince yourself
- 34. Do a sniff test
- 35. Projections should be for optimistic, yet realistic/likely case
- 36. VCs will give it a haircut anyway
- 37. Dont‘s
- 38. Don’t be too broad – doesn’t help to say healthcare is a $T market – that’s not your applicable TAM
- 39. DON’T fill your slides with numbers from industry reports
- 40. Don’t try to solve every problem in the world
- 41. Don’t assume large market means a large market share
- 42. “The market is $60B for this product, so even if we get 2% of this market, we have a large company”