The document summarizes the state of the global economy in January 2011. It finds that while the global recovery continues, growth prospects have dimmed slightly from 2010's strong rebound. Rising commodity prices and inflation are creating risks. Inflation is a growing threat, forcing companies to cut costs and limiting job and economic growth. Emerging economies continue to power the recovery, while developed nations struggle with debt and budget consolidation.
The document summarizes risks facing the global economy, including rising commodity prices increasing inflation risks, natural disasters in Japan widening risks, and political changes in the Middle East. While the recovery has gained footing, these risks threaten to undermine continued growth. Inflation concerns have replaced deflation fears as the main risk. The impacts of Japan's earthquake and nuclear issues are still unfolding but will likely slow Japan's growth initially and increase costs of reconstruction.
The document provides an overview and commentary on Templeton Emerging Markets investments for the quarter ended September 30, 2011. Concerns over sovereign debt in Europe and the US dominated markets in the quarter. Emerging markets declined sharply, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 22.46% in US dollar terms. Growth slowed or weakened in many major emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, and Russia. Central banks in some countries cut rates to support growth. Overall, heightened global risks and economic uncertainties led to a challenging quarter for emerging markets.
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in August 2012. It notes that economic growth slowed in many countries during the second quarter and leading indicators suggest further weakness. Monetary and fiscal policies have limited ability to boost growth. Emerging markets, which account for most global growth, face structural challenges and may see slower potential growth as investor risk appetite declines. Overall the global economic outlook remains fragile.
The document provides an economic and financial market outlook for December 2010. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy has regained balance as growth fears subside. Emerging economies continue to drive growth, while advanced economies are recovering.
2) The US economy is gaining speed and the likelihood of a double-dip recession is now remote. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012 supported by business and consumer spending.
3) European sovereign debt issues pose ongoing risks but overall European growth is expected to continue, albeit at moderate levels of 1.7-1.9% through 2012.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
The document summarizes risks facing the global economy, including rising commodity prices increasing inflation risks, natural disasters in Japan widening risks, and political changes in the Middle East. While the recovery has gained footing, these risks threaten to undermine continued growth. Inflation concerns have replaced deflation fears as the main risk. The impacts of Japan's earthquake and nuclear issues are still unfolding but will likely slow Japan's growth initially and increase costs of reconstruction.
The document provides an overview and commentary on Templeton Emerging Markets investments for the quarter ended September 30, 2011. Concerns over sovereign debt in Europe and the US dominated markets in the quarter. Emerging markets declined sharply, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 22.46% in US dollar terms. Growth slowed or weakened in many major emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, and Russia. Central banks in some countries cut rates to support growth. Overall, heightened global risks and economic uncertainties led to a challenging quarter for emerging markets.
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in August 2012. It notes that economic growth slowed in many countries during the second quarter and leading indicators suggest further weakness. Monetary and fiscal policies have limited ability to boost growth. Emerging markets, which account for most global growth, face structural challenges and may see slower potential growth as investor risk appetite declines. Overall the global economic outlook remains fragile.
The document provides an economic and financial market outlook for December 2010. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy has regained balance as growth fears subside. Emerging economies continue to drive growth, while advanced economies are recovering.
2) The US economy is gaining speed and the likelihood of a double-dip recession is now remote. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012 supported by business and consumer spending.
3) European sovereign debt issues pose ongoing risks but overall European growth is expected to continue, albeit at moderate levels of 1.7-1.9% through 2012.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
The U.S. government has pushed up against its federally mandated debt ceiling and cannot borrow more unless the ceiling is raised. What can we expect in the coming weeks? Our market update provides some insights.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
US update - No recession but slower growthNordea Bank
While the US economy looks healthier in the near term, growth is expected to slow in the first half of 2012 due to headwinds from Europe's financial crisis and fiscal restraint in the US. The US faces recession risks primarily from external shocks like a worsening of the Euro crisis. US exposure to Europe through trade and banking represents a significant threat, though a mild Euro recession alone likely won't cause a US recession. Persistent domestic headwinds like high unemployment and limited household savings will also restrain growth. The report forecasts US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011-2012 and 2.6% in 2013, with unemployment remaining around 9%.
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
The document provides an economic summary for Q2 2010. Key points include:
- The economic recovery continued but slowed significantly, with a series of "W-patterns" expected due to ongoing risks.
- Consumer confidence and small business sentiment increased modestly while unemployment remained high.
- Volatility returned to global markets as the Euro crisis threatened the EU. The Euro declined against the dollar while other currencies like the GBP fluctuated.
- Mortgage rates hit record lows but housing indicators like new home sales remained weak, though a tax credit was extended.
Hopes and Fears for 2014 – February 2014JonGrant01
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook for 2014. It discusses concerns around another potential financial crisis due to unaddressed issues from the last crisis. It analyzes the economic situations and outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, China, and other emerging markets. Key risks mentioned include potential currency volatility, debt issues, deflation, unemployment, and slowing growth in China.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
Brian Nash presented on the uneven global recovery. The presentation discussed the global economic outlook, including expectations for stronger US growth led by consumption, moderate growth in China, and challenges in Europe. Central banks are becoming more aggressive in their monetary policies, with the ECB beginning a large quantitative easing program. Geopolitical risks and diverging monetary policies pose risks to the global economy in 2015.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Global Manufacturing Downturn Gathers Pace In JulyEdward Hugh
Global manufacturing activity is slowing across many regions due to multiple factors such as the Eurozone debt crisis, slowing growth in China, and quantitative easing measures running out of steam in developed economies. Japan continues to struggle with weak domestic demand and exports hindered by a strong yen. China is experiencing a slowdown driven by adjustments in its real estate sector and declining external demand. The recession in Europe is worsening and spreading from the periphery to core countries like Germany. Italy is also seeing its recession deepen.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document discusses the sluggish economic recovery in the US despite massive monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. It provides the following key points:
1) Most of the money from quantitative easing programs has remained as excess reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve rather than flowing into the real economy or increasing bank lending.
2) Money supply has grown but credit growth and velocity of money remain low, restraining economic growth.
3) Investment remains subdued due increased uncertainty from issues like the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
4) Infrastructure investment is proposed as an alternative driver of growth and employment given the lagging housing sector recovery.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The U.S. government has pushed up against its federally mandated debt ceiling and cannot borrow more unless the ceiling is raised. What can we expect in the coming weeks? Our market update provides some insights.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
US update - No recession but slower growthNordea Bank
While the US economy looks healthier in the near term, growth is expected to slow in the first half of 2012 due to headwinds from Europe's financial crisis and fiscal restraint in the US. The US faces recession risks primarily from external shocks like a worsening of the Euro crisis. US exposure to Europe through trade and banking represents a significant threat, though a mild Euro recession alone likely won't cause a US recession. Persistent domestic headwinds like high unemployment and limited household savings will also restrain growth. The report forecasts US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011-2012 and 2.6% in 2013, with unemployment remaining around 9%.
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
The document provides an economic summary for Q2 2010. Key points include:
- The economic recovery continued but slowed significantly, with a series of "W-patterns" expected due to ongoing risks.
- Consumer confidence and small business sentiment increased modestly while unemployment remained high.
- Volatility returned to global markets as the Euro crisis threatened the EU. The Euro declined against the dollar while other currencies like the GBP fluctuated.
- Mortgage rates hit record lows but housing indicators like new home sales remained weak, though a tax credit was extended.
Hopes and Fears for 2014 – February 2014JonGrant01
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook for 2014. It discusses concerns around another potential financial crisis due to unaddressed issues from the last crisis. It analyzes the economic situations and outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, China, and other emerging markets. Key risks mentioned include potential currency volatility, debt issues, deflation, unemployment, and slowing growth in China.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
Brian Nash presented on the uneven global recovery. The presentation discussed the global economic outlook, including expectations for stronger US growth led by consumption, moderate growth in China, and challenges in Europe. Central banks are becoming more aggressive in their monetary policies, with the ECB beginning a large quantitative easing program. Geopolitical risks and diverging monetary policies pose risks to the global economy in 2015.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Global Manufacturing Downturn Gathers Pace In JulyEdward Hugh
Global manufacturing activity is slowing across many regions due to multiple factors such as the Eurozone debt crisis, slowing growth in China, and quantitative easing measures running out of steam in developed economies. Japan continues to struggle with weak domestic demand and exports hindered by a strong yen. China is experiencing a slowdown driven by adjustments in its real estate sector and declining external demand. The recession in Europe is worsening and spreading from the periphery to core countries like Germany. Italy is also seeing its recession deepen.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document discusses the sluggish economic recovery in the US despite massive monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. It provides the following key points:
1) Most of the money from quantitative easing programs has remained as excess reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve rather than flowing into the real economy or increasing bank lending.
2) Money supply has grown but credit growth and velocity of money remain low, restraining economic growth.
3) Investment remains subdued due increased uncertainty from issues like the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
4) Infrastructure investment is proposed as an alternative driver of growth and employment given the lagging housing sector recovery.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
Alexia Turner is seeking a position that allows her to utilize her excellent customer service, research, time management, and problem solving skills. She has a background in customer service, research coordination, and nursing assistance. Her education includes a Master's degree in Workforce Leadership Education and a Bachelor's degree in Nutrition and Dietetics from Alcorn State University.
El Tribunal Supremo falló que un menor puede cambiar su apellido paterno sin el consentimiento del padre que lo abandonó, ya que el derecho del niño a tener una nueva identidad prevalece sobre el derecho del padre biológico. El bienestar del menor y su derecho a una nueva familia deben ser la principal consideración en estos casos.
El documento habla sobre el trabajo de computación realizado por Beatriz Forradellas. El trabajo fue realizado por Magdalena Basañes y Florencia Coria. El documento menciona varios tipos de blogs y podcasts que pueden usarse para buscar trabajo, estudiar, pasar tareas al profesor, y mejorar en el puesto laboral.
Un hombre se ha cruzado varias veces con un mendigo en la misma calle, siempre adoptando la misma postura meditativa como una esfinge. Un día, le ofreció un refresco y entablaron una pequeña conversación, en la que el mendigo explicó que su postura era yoga. El cartel escrito a mano del mendigo pidiendo ayuda llamó la atención del hombre, dando a entender que su vida dependía de la caridad de los transeúntes.
Para escribir un cuento, se deben usar conectores para el inicio, desarrollo y desenlace de la historia. La tabla proporcionada ofrece una guía de conectores para cada parte de la narrativa.
This document compares tablets to print textbooks for use by students. It notes advantages and disadvantages of each format. Tablets offer technological features not found in print textbooks, but their manufacturing is environmentally destructive and tablets can break down requiring expensive repairs. Print textbooks are heavy but cannot crash or lose power like tablets. Ultimately, the document questions whether tablets would logically be the better option for students, considering both their benefits in preparing students for a technology-focused world as well as their drawbacks around health, environment and reliability issues.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Global economic growth is slowing as manufacturing production stagnates in many regions. Financial markets have declined sharply due to ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe and weak growth prospects in the US and Europe. Food shortages are causing humanitarian crises for millions in Africa and Haiti.
1) China's economic growth is slowing considerably, with the risk of a "hard landing" increased. GDP growth is projected to be just below 8% this year with moderate stimulus to counter the slowdown.
2) A hard landing in China's economy could have significant negative effects on the global economy as China accounts for around 50% of global growth. It would also impact financial, commodity, and trade markets.
3) Slower growth in China would negatively affect exporting countries and commodity prices, with countries like Germany, Japan, Sweden, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil feeling the effects. It could also cause turbulence in global financial markets.
The Global Economy No. 9 - December 20, 2011Swedbank
The Global Economy No. 9 - December 20, 2011: Although 2011 was the year of the debt crisis, challenges still remain in 2012 – not least for the euro zone
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 AugustSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The global economy continues its recovery but remains fragile with several challenges. While inflation is rising in emerging markets, developed countries still face low underlying inflation and structural problems requiring reforms. Interest rate increases in Europe and the US could jeopardize the recovery if done too soon. Demands for political reforms in the Middle East add uncertainty. Both the US and Europe must address high debt and weak growth through budget consolidation and reforms. The eurozone needs stronger institutions to improve collaboration between countries.
Whats Ahead In 2012 - An Investment Perspective (Spring Update)scottmeek
The document provides an investment perspective and outlook for 2012 from BlackRock. Some key points:
1) The US economy is expected to continue modest growth in 2012, which should be enough to support further stock market gains.
2) Bond yields have risen but a significant bond bear market is not expected. Higher yields alone are not seen as an impediment to stocks.
3) Stocks had strong gains in Q1 2012 and further gains are expected for the year, though at a slower pace. Outperformance of US stocks and sectors focusing on free cash flow and dividends are recommended.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Based on proprietary data and analytic insight, this report gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on gloal business conditions for the first half of 2012.
The Global Manufacturing Recession Tightens Its GripEdward Hugh
The document discusses the state of global manufacturing in August 2012. The key points are:
1) Manufacturing conditions deteriorated further in major economies like Japan, China, and the United States in August, tightening the grip of the ongoing global manufacturing recession.
2) Conditions also continued to weaken in Europe, the epicenter of the crisis, though slightly less than in July. Core European countries and Italy continued being affected.
3) There were few bright spots globally, with slow growth in places like Ireland, Indonesia, and Russia, but weakness elsewhere including India, Turkey, and Brazil.
4) More quantitative easing is likely in the US and Japan to boost growth amid weak data
New developments cast doubts on global recovery
This monthly briefing highlights that sequestration may lead to lower growth in the United States, continuing weaknesses in the European Union, China announcing a GDP target of 7.5 per cent, while India boosts budget spending.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
The Global Economy No. 8 - November 30, 2011Swedbank
The document summarizes the state of the global economy, with a focus on challenges in the eurozone. It discusses:
1) How the eurozone debt crisis is spreading from southern Europe to core countries, threatening the stability of the currency union.
2) How the inability to resolve fiscal problems in the US and eurozone crisis could lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
3) The rising risk of recession in the eurozone as fiscal austerity, credit constraints, and declining business/consumer confidence hurt growth prospects.
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...Pim Piepers
The document summarizes Standard & Poor's outlook for global credit markets in 2012. Key points include:
- Sovereign debt problems in Europe and potential fiscal tightening in the US increase uncertainty and risk of recession.
- The US recovery is expected to continue but unemployment will likely remain above 8%. Growth in emerging markets should be solid.
- European economies will likely see continued recession in the first half of 2012 driven by weak demand, tight credit conditions, and high unemployment. Housing markets will remain weak except in the UK.
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank
This document provides an overview of Swedbank, a bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It details that Swedbank has over 16 million inhabitants, 7.3 million private customers, and 651,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Key figures on branches, employees and lending are also provided for each country. The document discusses Swedbank's history, vision, values, purpose and engagement in society. It outlines challenges from new customer needs, competitors, regulations and economic developments, and how Swedbank is adapting. Services provided to private and corporate customers are also summarized.
The interim report summarizes Swedbank's financial results for the first quarter of 2017. Net interest income and lending volumes increased compared to the previous quarter, while net commission income decreased due to seasonal effects. Overall profits increased 25% compared to the first year, strengthened by a capital gain from the sale of Hemnet. Credit quality remained strong across all business segments, though additional provisions were made for oil-related sectors. The report provides an overview of each business segment and notes that economic indicators have strengthened in Sweden and the Baltic countries in recent months.
Swedbank reported its year-end results for 2016. In Q4 2016, net interest income increased 3% compared to Q3 2016 supported by increased lending volumes. Net commission income benefited from positive stock market development. Higher volumes of covered bond repurchases weighed down Treasury's result. Costs were in line with expectations and credit quality remained solid despite increased provisions in oil related sectors. For the full year 2016, total income increased 11% while total expenses increased only 1%, leading to an 18% rise in operating profit. Return on equity was 15.8% and the proposed dividend per share was SEK 13.20, up from SEK 10.70 the previous year.
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017Swedbank
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Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank
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1. The Global Economy
Monthly letter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Cecilia Hermansson No. 1 • 26 January 2011
Inflation is a growing risk for the global economy
• The global recovery continues, although growth prospects have dimmed slightly
compared with last year’s strong rebound. Rising commodity prices and higher
inflation are creating greater risks for the global economy. As cost levels and
interest rates rise, it is forcing companies to further rationalise – which is
constraining jobs and economic growth.
• Expansionary monetary policy in the West is creating an illusion of greater
wealth, but doing little to accelerate the recovery in the US, for example, which
continues to struggle with its remaining structural problems. Risks rise for the
global economy when liquidity flows to emerging economies and commodity
markets. Emerging economies have to accept stronger currencies and do more
to avoid overheating. Responsibility for creating a balance in the global
economy rests with both developed nations and emerging economies.
Corporate confidence has improved early in the
Global economy continues to strengthen year, especially in Germany, though also in France
and Belgium, which is another reason for continued
The global recovery continues. Momentum will slow optimism.
slightly, however, since last year was exceptionally
strong due to inventory build-up and economic Last year GDP rose by as much as 3.6% in
stimulus from governments and central banks. The Germany and 10.3% in China, exceeding many
positive effects may linger into this year, but won't forecasters’ expectations. We have to remember,
produce quite the same growth impulses. though, that the Chinese figures were released just
three weeks after the year ended. The uncertainty
GDP growth (%) interval for China’s growth is rarely brought up in
1 5 .0
C h in a the public debate.
1 2 .5
1 0 .0
In our most recent economic report on January 13
7 .5
In d ia we revised GDP growth to nearly 4% for 2011 in
5 .0
B r a z il US PPP-weighted terms (and to slightly over 3% in
Percent
2 .5
dollar terms).
0 .0
- 2 .5 E u ro z o n e
As in earlier monthly letters, we mention that GDP
- 5 .0
Japan growth is unevenly divided between the world's
- 7 .5
countries and regions. Emerging economies are still
- 1 0 .0
R u s s ia the locomotive, while much of the West is busy
- 1 2 .5
06 07 08 09 10 reducing debt and consolidating budgets.
S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W in
This is especially evident when analysing industrial
On the other hand, countries such as Germany and production, which in emerging economies is already
China have such statistical overhangs that we have far beyond pre-crisis levels, but in the euro zone
had to revise growth higher for 2011. and the US remains far below previous peaks.
Economic Research Department, Swedbank AB (publ), SE-105 34 Stockholm, tel +46-8-5859 7740
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.se Internet: www.swedbank.com Responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson, +46-8-
5859 7720, Magnus Alvesson, +46-8-5859 3341, Jörgen Kennemar, +46-8-5859 7730, ISSN 1103-4897
2. The Global Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 1 • 26 January 2011
Industrial production levels (index 2000=100)) energy account for a big chunk (read emerging
220
Euro Zone
economies), and modest in more developed
200 Emerging Markets nations.
Total
USA
180
Consumer Price Index in various countries (change in %)
160 6
UK
5
140 USA
E u ro z o n e
4
120
3
100
Percent
2
80 1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sweden
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0
-1
Japan
-2
The Purchasing Managers Index points to
-3
continued industrial growth in several countries. 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Looking at the overall picture, 20-25% of the loss in S o u r c e : R e u t e r s E c o W in
production has been recovered. Japan is an
exception, where purchasing managers are In some countries, a stronger currency could slow
reporting shrinking new orders and production, the rise in prices, but in the euro zone the problem
possibly due to the difficulty competing with a of higher international commodity prices is
relatively strong yen and possibly because of exacerbated by a weaker euro.
growing competition from China and other Asian
countries. The increase in commodity prices is partly due
purely to supply problems (climate impacts on
Purchasing Managers Index harvests and mining) and partly to stronger global
70 demand for commodities as the global recovery
65 continues. The political situation in the Middle East
60 could become an increasing supply concern.
55
50
There is also reason to expect that the quantitative
45
easing to raise inflation expectations and asset
USA
UK
prices in the US and to some extent also in Europe
40 Japan
E u ro zo n e
C h in a
is driving speculation in commodity markets.
35
In d ia
Sweden Swedbank’s Commodity Price Index has risen by
30
over 30% since August 25 of last year, when Fed
25
06 07 08 09 10 Chairman Ben Bernanke held a speech in Jackson
S o u r c e : R e u t e r s E c o W in
Hole, Wyoming that paved the way for starting up
the printing presses.
Inflation grew in importance in 2011 Monetary policy shocks and commodity prices (excl. oil)
After the financial crisis the focus shifted to deflation 200
risks in the countries that are facing a period of debt
180
consolidation and weak domestic demand. This
isn't over yet (it took four years before Japan saw 160
deflation after its crisis in the early 1990’s), but the
140
risks are much smaller. This year the focus will
instead be on inflation risks, mainly in emerging 120
economies. There are several reasons why and
100
they are predominantly linked to commodity
markets. We and other forecasters risk this year 80
Number of months after shock --->
undervaluing both the rise in commodity prices and 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
inflation, and the effects on growth and Nixon- Dec 71 Greenspan-Bernanke- July 03 Bernanke- Dec 08
employment.
The current situation reminds Ronald McKinnon,
Commodity prices have risen significantly in the last
professor of international economics at Stanford
half year, which explains the big increase in the
University, of the monetary shock the Nixon
consumer price index in countries where food and
2 (3)
3. The Global Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 1 • 26 January 2011
administration helped to cause in 1971. He has In China, authorities have taken up the fight against
warned that quantitative easing could lead to higher inflation, at the same time that they are concerned
global inflation as countries try to prevent their about tightening too much, which could threaten
currencies from appreciating too much (Europe growth. Inflation fell from slightly more than 5% in
then, Asia and Latin America now). This isn't November to 4.6% in December. Of course the
without risk for the US, either. After several years it inflation pressures faced by the public are much
too could feel the effects of inflation impulses higher than indicated by the official CPI figure.
coming back to the US from abroad.
China: Credit expansion and consumer prices
Emerging economies such as China, India and (change in %)
3 7 .5 9
Brazil face the biggest risk that inflation could put 3 5 .0 8
an end to the good times. Economic policies have 3 2 .5 C o n s u m e r p r ic e s - - - > 7
to be tightened, and higher inflation is taking a 3 0 .0 6
2 7 .5
bigger bite out of consumers’ wallets, keeping them 2 5 .0
5
4
from spending. Investors will require higher returns
Percent
Percent
2 2 .5 3
on the government bonds these countries issue. 2 0 .0 2
1 7 .5 1
Commodity-dependent companies in every country 1 5 .0 0
1 2 .5 -1
in the world have to work harder to cut costs in 1 0 .0
< - - - C r e d it e x p a n s io n
-2
order to offset higher commodity prices, which in 7 .5 -3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
turn increases the pressure to improve productivity S o u r c e : R e u t e r s E c o W in
and limits the need for hiring new workers. Lower
profit margins could also hurt stock prices and slow
the recovery in Western credit markets. Central Important to take responsibility for prices
banks may feel forced to raise interest rates earlier We feel it is risky to maintain highly expansionary
than warranted by economic conditions otherwise. monetary policies in the West, since capital flows to
For example, the ECB is facing growing pressure to emerging economies and commodity markets, are
raise its benchmark interest rate if inflation causing imbalances.
surprises on the upside, despite that the debt crisis
in the PIIGS countries is far from over. At the same time it is important to note that
responsibility also rests heavily with emerging
It is important, however, to carefully analyse what countries, which – as their name implies – have
the higher inflation is caused by. In the UK, it is placed too much emphasis on growth and too little
largely the result of fiscal austerity measures that on avoiding an overheating. The central banks and
include higher VAT and tax rates, as well as a governments in many emerging countries have
weaker pound, which is raising import prices. These been late to tighten monetary and fiscal policy.
are temporary effects. Capital costs are generally too low and real interest
rates are often negative. This isn't responsible
In the West, many countries have to continue to economic policy.
save and consolidate their budgets, which slows
domestic demand and limits pricing pressures in the Cecilia Hermansson
labour market. It is not likely that higher commodity
prices will easily spread to other sectors and create
more price pressure for the economy as a whole.
But this uncertainty is the only thing that can get
central banks to take action.
Swedbank
Economic Research Department Swedbank’s monthly The Global Economy newsletter is published as a service to our
customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation
SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden
of the analyses reported in this publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or
Phone +46-8-5859 7740
completeness of the report and cannot be held responsible for any error or omission in the
ek.sekr@swedbank.se
underlying material or its use. Readers are encouraged to base any (investment) decisions
www.swedbank.se
on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for
Legally responsible publisher losses or damages, direct or indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Swedbank’s
Cecilia Hermansson, +46-88-5859 7720. monthly The Global Economy newsletter.
Magnus Alvesson, +46-8-5859 3341
Jörgen Kennemar, +46-8-5859 7730
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