This document discusses key trends related to food safety, including increasing regulatory pressure, consumer demand for information, and the globalization and complexity of food supply chains. It notes that food safety incidents can have widespread impacts due to international distribution networks. The document recommends that organizations review emerging trends to help define strategic objectives and tactics, and suggests that adopting global standards can help meet requirements, reduce risks, build trust, and differentiate brands through improved traceability and rapid recall response capabilities.

1. Food Safety Trends
John Keogh
Global Advisor & Director
Product and Consumer Safety
GS1 Global Office
30th January 2013

2. Agenda
 Key Trends – Consumer Goods Forum
 Trends related Food Safety
 What we know about….
 Global pressures
 Consumer pressures
 Regulatory pressures
 Industry pressures
 Who produces food?
 Global Implications of Food Safety regulations
 Summary
 Possible tactics to consider
 Conclusions
2

3. Who am I?
- Live in Toronto
- Global Advisor at GS1 Global Office Brussels
- Focused on Product & Consumer Safety
- Advising Industry, government and inter-governmental agencies
including EU, OECD, ASEAN and APEC
- Started life in Ireland in a family retail business
- Lived in Holland for 10 years
- Build high performance supply chains across Europe
- Re-engineered IT and supply chain systems and processes
- Past 4 years extensive advisory work in Asia
…..Very passionate about consumer safety…….
3

4. ECR AP Council
Sustainability
Emerging
Industry
Trends
People
Excellence
Health and
Wellness
Driver for today’s webinar
4
Operational
Excellence
Identify trends of most
interest to ECR:
•Consumer technology access
•Supply Chain info. availability
•Increasing concern for Product
Safety
Collate and disseminate best
practice information and engage
ECR members in an open
dialogue
Emerging Industry Trends Committee approach: Our job will be to keep our collective view of the emerging
trends current, and to help ECR members exploit the trends through best practice information, and shaping
projects for us to work with other ECR Committees to implement.

5. The 12 Global Trends 2020
Consumer Goods Forum - Future Value Chain
Increased
Urbanization
Aging
Population
Increasing Spread
of Wealth
Increased Impact of
Consumer Technology
Adoption
Increase in Consumer
Service Demands Increased Importance
of Health and
Wellbeing
Growing Consumer
Concern about
Sustainability
Shifting of
Economic Power
Scarcity of Natural
Resources
Increase in
Regulatory Pressure
Rapid Adoption of Supply
Chain Technology
Capabilities
Impact of Next-
Generation
Information
Technologies
Source: Future Value Chain 2020, TCGF, Capgemini, HP, Microsoft http://www.slideshare.net/koen.klokgieters/2020-future-value-chain-presentation
5

6. What to do with this information?
6http://www.slideshare.net/koen.klokgieters/2020-future-value-chain-presentation
6

7. Let’s look closer at 2 of these Trends
related to Food and Public Safety
7

8. 2020 Trend 6
Increased importance of health
and wellbeing
8

9. 2020 Trend 10:
Increase in Regulatory Pressure
9

10. What we know about Food Safety:
Food Safety is highly visible
While Food Quality is improving, so is detection technology 10

11. Globally there are 1 billion cases of food borne illnesses resulting
in an estimated 2.2 million deaths
USA : 48 million cases and 3,000 deaths
Australia : 5.4 million and 120 deaths
EU : 45.5 million cases…..3,000 deaths ??
All figures = annual
Sources: UN, US CDC, WHO, APEC
What we know about Food Safety:
Food Safety is highly visible
11

12. Let’s take a closer look at the
growing pressures……
• Global in nature…
• Regulatory…
• Consumer…
• Industry…
12

13. What we know about Food:
Global pressures are increasing
Population to
increase by more
than 30% to 9.2
billion by 2050
Demand for
protein rich
foods
increasing
Urbanization
increasing to 70% from
49% - will drive
changes in supply
chain structures
FAO – World Bank warning
Only 10% of demand can be
met with NEW cropland
Only 20% from existing
cropland and existing
technology
70% must come from
technology and policy
innovation
Rising incomes = rising demands Food production
must increase 70-
100%
Cereal production
will rise 30% to 3
billion MT
Meat production will
rise 40% to 470
million MT
Pressures are for more
foods with shelf life risk
including dairy, fish,
meats, fruits, veg.
Protect the Blue
Economy
We will need
two planets to
feed the earth
by 2050
50% of all foods
produced is not
consumed
Sources: Various, UN, APEC PPFS 13

14. What we know about Food:
Protein demand in Asia: Meat & Eggs
Source: FAO SOFA, 2009 14

15. What we know about Consumers and Food:
Demand for information is increasing
Is this healthy?
Does it contain
peanuts or other
allergens?
Is the packaging
recyclable?
Was this grown
organically?
Are the employees
treated well and paid
fairly?
Does this
company act
responsibly
toward
shareholders?
Is the farming and
harvesting done
sustainably?
Could I get this less
expensively on the
Internet?
Do they test
their
products on
animals?
Can I get more
information online?
?????
Is this safe for
me?
Can I trust the
product
claims?
Is the product
genuine?
15

16. What we know about Regulations and Food:
Regulatory pressures are increasing
Push more
information to
consumers
Is the packaging
compliant? Was this product
produced to food safety
standards?
Are products
traceable to the
source?
How do we enforce policy in
increasingly complex and
global supply chains?
Can we feed our
nation?
Was it produced safely
and according to
regulatory
requirements?
Can we protect and
alert citizens on
unsafe products?
Price stability?
Enforcement
with reduced
resources?
BIO-Fuel Diversion
National interests versus Foreign
interests (Google “land grab in
Africa”)
Foreign ownership?
GMO?
Reduce Spoilage
Build Capacity
Technology
Transfer
APEC Farmer
Days
Natural Disaster
Resilience
16

17. What we know about Industry and Food:
Industry pressures keep increasing
Push more
information to
consumers
Does the product
contain allergens?
Is my packaging,
labeling and claims
correct?
Can we
consistently
produce to food
safety
standards?
Are my products
really traceable?
My
perishable
products are
being held
up at
customs
Can I guarantee
supply of raw
materials?
Can I protect my
brand from recall
impact?
Can I protect and
alert my
customers about
unsafe products?
Are our products at risk of
counterfeit or cheaper
substitution? (Ireland’s
horsemeat in beef burgers?)
Pricing stability?
The perfect tomato !
Maintaining
Supplier Trust?
Keeping
Consumer
Trust?
How to
implement a
food safety
culture?
Multiple food safety
standards
How do we keep track
of national and regional
regulations?
Reduce
spoilage
Efficiency
Non-Cohesive
Regulations
17

18. Globalization of the food chain
increases pressures
18

19. What we know about Food Safety:
Why did the Chicken cross the border?
That’s the reality of today’s business…….
19

20. What we know about Food Safety:
Globalization increases pressure…..
20

21. Traceability in the food
chain is complex
Source: Gemini 03/06

22. Where do Food Safety Incidents
occur?
22

23. Does the consumer
have a role to play in
food safety?
What role should
industry play ?
What role should
government play ?
Is there a role for
early education on
food safety?
What we know about Food Safety:
Where was contaminated food consumed?
23

24. Mistaken Identity…..an issue with food
safety and globalization…..
The strange case of the Cucumbers mistakenly
blamed and recalled / destroyed……..and cost
EU 200 million per week ………conclusion from
German authorities…..”we need better
traceability”
Key question:
Do we really have full chain traceability and the
ability to effectively recall?
24

25. Who Produces Food and where
are the biggest challenges?
25

26. Rank and Share of World Total
World’s Top Food Producers
Rank
Primary
Crops
Vegetables Fruits Meat
Fish &
Aquacultur
e
1
China
(18.7%)
China
(50%)
China
(18.8%)
China
(26.6%)
China
(33.4%)
2
Brazil
(11.7%)
India
(8.6%)
India
(11%)
US
(15.4%)
India
(5.3%)
3
India
(11.5%)
US
(4%)
Brazil
(6.8%)
Brazil
(8.2%)
Peru
(5.2%)
Source: FAO Statistical Database; 2008 data.
26

27. Rank and share of world total
APEC’s Top Food Producers
Source: FAO Statistical Database; 2008 data.
Rank Country
Primary
Crops
Vegetables Fruits Meat
Fish &
Aquacultur
e
1 China 18.7% 50.0% 18.8% 26.6% 33.4%
2 USA 8.4% 4.0% 4.9% 15.4% 3.4%
3 Indonesia 3.5% 0.9% 2.8% 0.9% 4.7%
4 Russia 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 2.2% 2.5%
5 Thailand 2.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.8% 2.7%
6 Mexico 1.6% 1.3% 2.8% 2.0% 1.2%
7 Malaysia 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2%
8 Philippines 1.2% 0.6% 2.7% 1.0% 2.3%
9 Viet Nam 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 3.2%
10 Canada 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 0.8%
11 Australia 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 0.2%
12 Japan 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 3.5%
13 Peru 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 5.2%
14 Korea 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.7%
15 Chile 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 3.1%
16 New Zealand 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4%
APEC total 44.14% 63.4% 39.3% 57.1% 70.6%
27

28. Food Chain reality…..
28

29. 29
Report published January 2013: 50% of all food produced is wasted
In South-East Asian countries, losses of rice can range from 37% to 80% of total
production depending on development stage, which amounts to total wastage in
the region of about 180 million tonnes annually.
In China the rice loss figure is about 45%
In Vietnam, rice losses between the field and the table can amount to 80% of
production.
http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/Reports/Global_Food_Report.sflb.ashx
29

30. Published by AAAS
H. C. J. Godfray et al., Science 327, 812-818 (2010)
Biggest Challenges:
Where does the Waste occur?
30

31. Could a national food safety regulation
have global impact?
31

32. Food Safety Modernization Act
“I thank the President and
members of Congress for
recognizing that the burden
that foodborne illness places
on the American people is too
great, and for taking this
action.”
Margaret A. Hamburg, M.D.,
Commissioner of Food and Drugs
Source: US FDA
32

33. Food Safety Modernization Act
Source: US FDA
33
Global Impact

34. The US Food Safety Modernization
Act will have global impact
The US imports 15% of its
food…….from 130,000+
registered foreign suppliers
with more than 300,000
production facilities.
Source: US FDA
34

35. Summary
35
Food Safety is a complex and global issue.
Reviewing the 2020 trends more deeply within
your organizations could help you define/refine
strategic objectives and tactics…..we suggest
some tactics that could help uncover blind
spots……
Global standards have proven to improve
business outcomes, while helping to meet
regulatory requirements and reducing risk to
consumer safety

36. Summary:
Trends to Objectives to Tactics
36

37. Trends – Objectives - Tactics
http://www.slideshare.net/koen.klokgieters/2020-future-value-chain-presentation 37

38. Future Value Chain Trend 11:
Rapid Adoption of Supply Chain Technology
Capabilities
Can Global
Standards
Help?
Can Global
Standards
Help build
trust?
38

39. SUMMARY: TACTIC TO CONSIDER:
“Value Traceability” can differentiate your brand
supply chain
optimization
compliance
branding
&
marketing
risk reduction
Reduced Risk
Optimized Assets
Increased revenue
Lowered costs
Delivering….
Effective Recall
SC Visibility
100% Traceability
Differentiation
Compliance
While
compliance and
risk reduction
aspects can be
critical, they do
not encourage
investments
beyond the
required
minimum
FOCUS:
stay in business
FOCUS:
increase value
Value Traceability
39

40. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
Rapid
Response
CASES
Early
Detection
Potential
Cases Prevented
DAY
Source: WHO keynote: GS1 Hong Kong Food Safety Seminar 2012.
SUMMARY: TACTIC TO CONSIDER:
You can differentiate your brand through early earning
and rapid response capability
40

41. Information
What information is being used
and given ?
Identification
How traceable items are
identified and coded ?
Operations
How traceability works and
how crisis are managed ?
Procedures
How traceability is
acknowledged and
documented?
Global Traceability
Assessment
SUMMARY: TACTIC TO CONSIDER:
A traceability conformance assessment can
uncover critical blind spots
http://www.gs1.org/traceability
41

42. •16 cases of Salmonellosis
reported in Usolie, Russia,
including 13 infants, 1 child
(age 4) and 2 adults
•Product sent to 24 regions
in Russia
Russia
Belgium
Haiti
Congo
Mozambique
Burundi
Outbreak of S. Oranienburg in
Russia linked to internationally
distributed powdered infant
formula from Belgium
Charachteristics
•International distribution (Three continents)
•Shelf-stable product (+1 year)
•Vulnerable population (infants)
Good Traceability System allowed the
producer to quickly identify the specific
product and institute a very targeted recall
(minimizing economic impact) quickly eliminated
further exposure (protecting public health)
Source: WHO keynote: GS1 Hong Kong Food Safety Seminar 2012.
SUMMARY: TACTIC TO CONSIDER:
“Value Traceability” can differentiate your brand
42

43. SUMMARY: The Way Forward
A short checklist to consider…
Q: Is your organization aware of the food safety / labelling requirements for your target markets?
Q: Are your products traceable upstream and downstream?
Q: Does your external “digital” product information match your master data records?
Q: Have you considered the value of auditing your public data (product master data) on commonly
available mobile scanners?
Q: Have you completed an annual mock recall to test processes and functions?
Q: Is you master data synchronized with your trading partners?
Q: Is your organization aware of in-store innovation using databar to reduce spoilage?
Q: Are you aware of the full traceability conformance assessment ?
Q; Do you have full chain visibility and traceability
43

44. Source: IBM analysis of 4,400KPI scorecards
550% less raw
materials
inventory
cover
2% higher
supplier
service level
3,5% higher
invoice
accuracy
21% shorter
lead time
42% lower
distribution
costs
35% less retail
distribution center
inventory cover
32% less out-
of-stocks
SUMMARY: What we know about GS1 Global Standards:
Global Standards improves business results
44

45. Conclusions:
..from the CGF 2020 Future Trends
45

46. We are on a journey…..Adapt + Overcome = Progress…. 46

47. The IMPOSSIBLE is not always Impossible……..just DIFFICULT !
47

48. 48
ECR Contact
Ivett Katalin Nagy
ivett@ecr-all.org

49. 49
Thank you!