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Impact of the present crises
on India Economy
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil
Director, IEMS B-School Hubli
1. Introduction
• The present crises is more dangerous than
world war
• World GDP is expected to come down by 10%
• Future of the world
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
2. Impact on Economy
–IMF – projects India’s GDP for 2021-22 is
1.9% highest among G-20 Nations
–The loss of over Rs.32,000 crore occurred
every day during the lockdown period
• Source: : CMIE
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
3. Impact on Economy
• Unemployment rose from 6.7% on 15th March
to 26% on 19th April, 2020.
• It is estimated 14 crore people have lost jobs
• Banks NPA
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
4. AREAS MOST AFFECTED..
• Raw material and Spare Parts:
– Majority of the raw materials are imported from other
countries. Around 55% of hardware imported from China
• Financial Services
– Redemptions of funds
– The worst hit on 23 March 2020 & biggest gain on 25
March, 2020 in 11 years in stock market.
– NPA
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
5. AREAS MOST AFFECTED..
• Hospitality
– Estimated loss to the tourism industry is Rs.15,000 crore for March
and April alone.
• Aviation
– Revenue loss of $11.2 bln. Job risk 29%
– Passengers demand fallen by 47%.
– Almost 600 universal flights to and from India
were dropped for differing periods.
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
6. AREAS MOST AFFECTED..
• Supply chains and logistics
"If even one link in the supply chain is broken, the
country could run out of stocks of packaged food
in the next 7-10 days."
• E-commerce
Online shopping
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
7. AREAS MOST AFFECTED..
• Real Estate
– Sales fell by 26% in Q4 and 51% drop in lockdown
– New projects drop down by 27%
• Government Revenue
– Shortfall in revenue & Delay in Tax Collection
– Spending increased
– Decreased / avoided cost
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
8. AREAS MOST AFFECTED..
• Oil Industry
– Fuel demand in April 2020 fell nearly 46% .
– Annual fuel consumption will decline by 5.6% in
2020.
– Diesel demand will drop by 6%.
– 80% of Solar modules from China
–Renting out reserve space
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
9. Unemployment
• 27 mln people btwn age group 20 to 30 yrs
lost their job
• Unemployment rate from 7.6% to 27% as on
May 3rd and is expected to reach 35% by June,
Hence 136 mln jobs may be lost
• Hospitality and Exports sectors are badly
effected
• Source: CMIE -Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
• Companies relocating from china to other
countries
• Compounded by price war in oil producing
nations
• Mergers, Acquisitions
• Indian leadership
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
10. Opportunities to India
• Agriculture
• Telecom sector
• Gold Market
• Oil Industry
• Financial Service – Stock Market
• FMCG, Pharma, Hospital
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
11. Sectors may soon grow:
12. Government Initiations
• PSB sanctioned 6000 crore from May 10 to 20
and 6.45 Lakh crore during entire lock down
period.
• Decreased Repo Rate
• Minimize imports of costly defense items and
encourage domestic production
• Rs. 50,000 crore special finance to NABARD,
SIDBI and NHB.
• 20 Lakh Crore Package….Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
13. Is India an alternative to China ?
• Foreign Companies in China are switching to
other directions
• Bilateral talks are being done
• The PMO conveyed state to have Land Bank
• Pro Industry Strategies
• 4,61,589 hectares land is earmarked for the
purpose (Economic Times).
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
14. To Overcome….
• Government to refund Income Tax to tax payers
and GST to states & Uts asap
• Govt to spend more amount on infrastructure in
the days to come
• Reduce government charges to Individuals,
Schools, Colleges and Companies wrt registration
, affiliation, ESI, PF etc.
• Avoid unproductive & unnecessary expenses
• Reduce or postpone your spendings
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419
• भारत माता की जय
Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli
9900409419

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Impact of Crises on economy

  • 1. Impact of the present crises on India Economy Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil Director, IEMS B-School Hubli
  • 2. 1. Introduction • The present crises is more dangerous than world war • World GDP is expected to come down by 10% • Future of the world Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 3. 2. Impact on Economy –IMF – projects India’s GDP for 2021-22 is 1.9% highest among G-20 Nations –The loss of over Rs.32,000 crore occurred every day during the lockdown period • Source: : CMIE Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 4. 3. Impact on Economy • Unemployment rose from 6.7% on 15th March to 26% on 19th April, 2020. • It is estimated 14 crore people have lost jobs • Banks NPA Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 5. 4. AREAS MOST AFFECTED.. • Raw material and Spare Parts: – Majority of the raw materials are imported from other countries. Around 55% of hardware imported from China • Financial Services – Redemptions of funds – The worst hit on 23 March 2020 & biggest gain on 25 March, 2020 in 11 years in stock market. – NPA Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 6. 5. AREAS MOST AFFECTED.. • Hospitality – Estimated loss to the tourism industry is Rs.15,000 crore for March and April alone. • Aviation – Revenue loss of $11.2 bln. Job risk 29% – Passengers demand fallen by 47%. – Almost 600 universal flights to and from India were dropped for differing periods. Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 7. 6. AREAS MOST AFFECTED.. • Supply chains and logistics "If even one link in the supply chain is broken, the country could run out of stocks of packaged food in the next 7-10 days." • E-commerce Online shopping Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 8. 7. AREAS MOST AFFECTED.. • Real Estate – Sales fell by 26% in Q4 and 51% drop in lockdown – New projects drop down by 27% • Government Revenue – Shortfall in revenue & Delay in Tax Collection – Spending increased – Decreased / avoided cost Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 9. 8. AREAS MOST AFFECTED.. • Oil Industry – Fuel demand in April 2020 fell nearly 46% . – Annual fuel consumption will decline by 5.6% in 2020. – Diesel demand will drop by 6%. – 80% of Solar modules from China –Renting out reserve space Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 10. 9. Unemployment • 27 mln people btwn age group 20 to 30 yrs lost their job • Unemployment rate from 7.6% to 27% as on May 3rd and is expected to reach 35% by June, Hence 136 mln jobs may be lost • Hospitality and Exports sectors are badly effected • Source: CMIE -Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 11. • Companies relocating from china to other countries • Compounded by price war in oil producing nations • Mergers, Acquisitions • Indian leadership Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419 10. Opportunities to India
  • 12. • Agriculture • Telecom sector • Gold Market • Oil Industry • Financial Service – Stock Market • FMCG, Pharma, Hospital Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419 11. Sectors may soon grow:
  • 13. 12. Government Initiations • PSB sanctioned 6000 crore from May 10 to 20 and 6.45 Lakh crore during entire lock down period. • Decreased Repo Rate • Minimize imports of costly defense items and encourage domestic production • Rs. 50,000 crore special finance to NABARD, SIDBI and NHB. • 20 Lakh Crore Package….Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 14. 13. Is India an alternative to China ? • Foreign Companies in China are switching to other directions • Bilateral talks are being done • The PMO conveyed state to have Land Bank • Pro Industry Strategies • 4,61,589 hectares land is earmarked for the purpose (Economic Times). Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 15. 14. To Overcome…. • Government to refund Income Tax to tax payers and GST to states & Uts asap • Govt to spend more amount on infrastructure in the days to come • Reduce government charges to Individuals, Schools, Colleges and Companies wrt registration , affiliation, ESI, PF etc. • Avoid unproductive & unnecessary expenses • Reduce or postpone your spendings Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419
  • 16. • भारत माता की जय Dr. Shrinivas R. Patil - Director IEMS Hubli 9900409419